bobsal u1553115
 
  1  
Sat 8 Aug, 2015 11:42 pm
A Trump independent run got harder Thursday night
Source: USA Today

WASHINGTON — Donald Trump's appearance in Thursday night's GOP debate in Cleveland just made it harder for him to run as an independent candidate for president.

Ohio is one of several states that have "sore loser" rules prohibiting a candidate from appearing on the ballot as an independent or third-party candidate after they have previously declared themselves a candidate in another party.

Ohio Secretary of State Jon Husted, a Republican, has concluded that since Trump has filed with the Federal Election Commission to pursue the Republican nomination and "voluntarily participated" in the Republican presidential debate in the state of Ohio, he has "chosen a party for this election cycle" and declared himself "as a Republican in the state of Ohio," said Husted spokesman Joshua Eck.

Mark that down as the first major hurdle Trump would face in trying to mount a 50-state campaign for president as an independent. But it likely would not be the only one.

Read more: http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2015/08/07/trump-independent-bid-ohio-debate/31283537/


Kasich's guys are already trying to stop the ego from derailing the GOP when he loses the nomination.
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  1  
Sat 8 Aug, 2015 11:44 pm


Donald Trump announced he had fired Roger Stone from his campaign as a top advisor, but there's more to the story than meets the eye. It turns out Trump was wrong, with Stone having quit and leaving the billionaire real estate mogul with some harsh words of his own.
Republican presidential candidates Donald Trump (R) and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker participate in the first prime-time presidential debate hosted by FOX News and Facebook at the Quicken Loans Arena August 6, 2015 in Cleveland, Ohio.
Photo by Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

With over four decades of political experience, Stone has worked with successful Republican campaigns in the past, including Richard Nixon and Ronald Reagan. Brought on board to tap into his political knowledge, it appeared that the Trump campaign was on to something. After a rocky 48 hours following the first Republican primary debate, Stone announced his resignation on August 8, as reported by Politico.

Speaking to The Washington Post, Trump told the paper that he had fired Stone for not being a serious contributor to the campaign. As MSNBC reports, a Trump spokesman also stated, "we have a tremendously successful campaign and Roger wanted to use the campaign for his own personal publicity." Challenging Trump's story were close allies to Stone, who announced that his resignation was actually sent in earlier in the day.

"He is losing his grip on reality," Stone said, according to Politico. "He has these yes-men around him. And now he's living in a parallel world." In the resignation e-mail Stone sent to Trump, the former advisor said he had to walk away due to the too many "controversies" and "provocative media fights."

"The current controversies involving personalities and provocative media fights have reached such a high volume that it has distracted attention from your platform and overwhelmed your core message…With this current direction of the candidacy, I no longer can remain involved in your campaign."

Heading into last Thursday's debate, Trump was leading in almost all national polling, in addition to leading in swing states like Florida and New Hampshire. After much media backlash, including from Fox News and popular host Megyn Kelly, and the resignation of a top advisor, only time will tell if the Trump campaign will continue to succeed or take a major step back.
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Sat 8 Aug, 2015 11:58 pm
@bobsal u1553115,
This is the same Roger Stone whose last candidate was in the Miami Mayors race way back in 2011, getting 1600 votes for second out of 4 and 23% of the vote?

Methinks he was not ever going to be of much use.

Who cares?


Oh ya, the liberal media looking for something to say about Trump so their idiot followers can believe that Trump is paying for is crimes of thought. Drunk
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  1  
Sun 9 Aug, 2015 12:28 am

Here are all Donald Trump's insults to women that Megyn Kelly asked about

Updated by Libby Nelson on August 6, 2015, 10:16 p.m. ET @libbyanelson [email protected]
Tweet (720) Share +

During Thursday night's Republican debate, Fox News debate moderator Megyn Kelly asked Donald Trump about his misogynistic comments about women's looks.

"You’ve called women you don’t like, ‘fat pigs,’ ‘dogs,’ slobs, and disgusting animals. … It was well beyond Rosie O’Donnell. Your Twitter account has several disparaging comments about women’s looks. You once told a contestant on Celebrity Apprentice it would be a pretty picture to see her on her knees. Does that sound to you like the temperament of a man we should elect as president?" Kelly asked Trump.

Trump, unsurprisingly, was less than apologetic.

But he does have a long history of insulting women — on Twitter and elsewhere. Here's a bit more detail on his history.
"Fat pig"

Rosie O'Donnell, in 2006, in the middle of a feud between Trump and O'Donnell. According to Fox News at the time:

Trump said O'Donnell was "a huge liability" for "The View," the ABC show she co-hosts. He told FOX News that the only thing she had going for her was a "nice girlfriend," referring to Kelli O'Donnell.

Trump referred to Rosie O'Donnell as a "big, fat pig" when imagining how her partner had announced to her family that she was involved with the comedian.

"Can you imagine the parents of Kelli ... when she said, 'Mom, Dad, I just fell in love with a big, fat pig named Rosie'?" he said. "Can you imagine the expression on their face?"

"Slobs"

Also Rosie O'Donnell, whom Trump seems to have insulted to everyone he could find. From Gothamist:

In response, Donald sat down with "The Insider" and told us exactly how he feels about "The View" co-host.

"Rosie O'Donnell's disgusting both inside and out," he said. "You take a look at her, she's a slob. She talks like a truck driver, she doesn't have her facts, she'll say anything that comes to her mind. Her show failed when it was a talk show, the ratings went very, very, very low and very bad, and she got essentially thrown off television. I mean she's basically a disaster."

Trump does seem to use "slob" as a somewhat gender-neutral insult, as in this 2014 tweet seeming to refer to BuzzFeed reporter McKay Coppins:

A dishonest slob of a reporter, who doesn't understand my sarcasm when talking about him or his wife, wrote a foolish & boring Trump "hit"
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) February 15, 2014

"Disgusting"

Trump reportedly had a "meltdown" when a lawyer requested a break from a deposition in order to pump breast milk, according to the New York Times:

When the lawyer, Elizabeth Beck, asked for a medical break, Mr. Trump and his lawyers objected, demanding that the deposition continue. Ms. Beck said it was urgent — she needed to pump breast milk for her 3-month-old daughter, and she took the pump out to make her point.

Mr. Trump erupted.

"You’re disgusting," he told Ms. Beck, in a remark that is not disputed by either side. He then walked out of the room, ending the testimony for the day.

"Animal"

O'Donnell again, also in 2006, according to People:

To the FOX News Channel, he said: "(View executive producer) Barbara Walters, in my opinion rues the day she put that animal on her show."

"Dogs"

Trump once sent a copy of a column from the New York Times's Gail Collins to the columnist in the mail, with "Face of a Dog!" written on her picture, Collins wrote:

During one down period, I referred to him in print as a 'financially embattled thousandaire,' and he sent me a copy of the column with my picture circled and 'The Face of a Dog!' written over it.

"On her knees"

This happened on Celebrity Apprentice: All-Stars in 2013.

As VH1 wrote:

LaToya Jackson, Bret Michaels, and former Playboy Playmate Brande Roderick were in the boardroom, presenting their arguments as to why they shouldn’t be fired to the brainless triumvirate of Donald Trump,Ivanka Trump and Piers Morgan. Bret explains to his eventual executioners that, at one point, Brande "got down on her knees and passionately said, ‘I want to do this.'" The innuendo was too thick for a goon like Donald Trump to let the statement simply slide.

"Excuse me, you DROPPED to your knees?", Trump directs towards Brande.

"Yes," Brande responds.

It’s at this point that you can see the wheels of Trump’s dirty mind turning, verrrrrrry slowly yet very surely. A full six seconds, which is an ETERNITY of time in the rapid-paced world of reality television editing, expire before Trump responds, "It must be a pretty picture. You dropping to your knees."

Trump's response

"Megyn, if you don’t like it, I’m sorry," Trump said in response to all this. Then he implied that he might insult her too:

"I’ve been very nice to you, although I could probably maybe not be based on the way you have treated me."
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Sun 9 Aug, 2015 01:42 am
Turns out that Stone did the debate prep of Trump

http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/donald-trumps-debate-dirty-trickster-121098.html

So what probably happened is that Stone quit because Trump did not follow his recipe for success, because trump is not going to be raw product for the handlers like the politicians are. That would make his quitting an ego fit. The guy goes on on an about how he worked for Nixon, even though he has done nothing in years, I am sure that a rube like Trump ignoring him was too much to bear.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Sun 9 Aug, 2015 02:14 pm
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
What made Trump's comments different was their personal nature, Carson said.

"What bothers me is when people say, you know, 'You can't say this word, you can't say this phrase, you can't even think that, you can't express this.' And it's very difficult for people to have an honest conversation if they can't express themselves. But in no way do I advocate, you know, saying mean things about people. That has nothing to do with political correctness," Carson said.

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-08-09/ben-carson-says-uproar-over-donald-trump-comments-not-about-political-correctness?cmpid=yhoo
So under that theory I cant say mean things about the members of ISIS .

Argument rejected.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Sun 9 Aug, 2015 02:39 pm
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
"I am a woman. I experience that every month. And it never crossed my mind. So I think people are just looking at pinpointing him as sexist and all these other things," Goertz said.

"I mean, we fought to have equal rights, right? So it's fair game," Goertz said. "If a woman attacks Mr. Trump, he's going to attack back. Megyn is no exception.

http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/trump-aide-dismisses-blood-critics-says-hes-bulletproof-n406596

Yep. We need to make up our minds, are women victims, equals or superior to men? If women are either equal or superior then Trump was with-in his rights. And it is a fact that most women bleed every month and that they often get bitchy during this time. Voicing the suspicion that the attacking woman was hormonal is fair, though I kinda doubt that this is what drove her bitchiness. THe males at FOX were bitchy too.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Mon 10 Aug, 2015 12:31 am
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
On Saturday morning after his conference speech, former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee expressed frustration at the single-mindedness of the group of reporters surrounding him.
"Do we have another non-Trump question?" Mr Huckabee asked.
The next question, of course, was also about Mr Trump.
"I'm running for president, I'm not running for social media critic of someone else who's running for president," he snapped. "Talk to me about issues."

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-33840025

The R elite messed up......they had to know that kicking Trump out of the confab means that the liberal aligned press which would make this all about Trump, making it impossible still to get their message out.

First Fox fucked them, then they shoot themselves in the foot, and it appears that Trump did just fine in the " debate"...it has certainly not been a good week for the Conservative elite.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Mon 10 Aug, 2015 01:43 pm
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
However, friends of Stone are telling a more conflicting story, noting that after the Megyn Kelly scuffle, the adviser became frustrated and admitted that Donald Trump was “losing his grip on reality.”

“He has these yes-men around him. And now he’s living in a parallel world,” he was reported to have said.

For the record, Roger Stone kept those thoughts to himself but did admit that he felt the campaign was getting away from the core issues that made it resonate with voters in the first place.

He also felt that he wasn’t having much of an impact and released the following resignation letter to the press [via Mediaite].


Read more at http://www.inquisitr.com/2320602/roger-stone-report-says-donald-trumps-ex-adviser-thinks-hes-losing-grip-on-reality/#ottfFTypXcvB2rLM.99

Ya, Trump was not following the directions of the 1000th best political operative out there , so he quit. This just makes Trump look better, we are sick of our politicians subjecting themselves to the molding of handlers. And Roger Stone needs to understand that Trump did relatively well in the "debate" even though he did most every wrong by his standards, and that wondering if a bitch is on the rag will not hurt him with most women, because they know that they are often bitches when they are on the rag. Trump gets points for truth telling.

We should see this proven soon, the snap polls after the "debate" said that he is still picking up more support. I will be looking at the polls that come out 2-4 weeks from now to confirm this.
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  1  
Mon 10 Aug, 2015 08:22 pm

8 Skeletons in Donald Trump's Closet That Reveal a Life-Long Dedication to Being the Biggest Jerk Possible

The Donald remains an unrepentant blowhard, whether it's 1985 or 2015.
By Zaid Jilani / AlterNet
August 4, 2015

Print
Comments

Pando writer Mark Ames has dug up some old Spy Magazine issues from the 1980s and early '90s detailing the legendary satirical magazine's early spade work in revealing what a dedicated jerk Donald Trump is. Over the course of several issues, the magazine probed into the details of Trump's exploits and outrages.

Here are some of the highlights:

Lesson He Learned From Punching His Music Teacher: In a book he wrote in 1987, Trump admitted to punching his music teacher in the second grade. While many would look back at such an event as immature furor, Trump didn't seem reflective about it at all: “In the second grade...I punched my music teacher because I didn’t think he knew anything about music....I’m not proud of that, but it’s clear evidence that even early on I had a tendency to stand up and make my opinions known in a very forceful way.”

Instant Missile Expertise: “It would take an hour and a half to learn everything there is to learn about missiles,” Trump boasted. “I think I know most of it anyway.” He claimed he should be in charge of nuclear negotiations with the Soviet Union.

Less Than Perfect Understanding of the Working Class: Trump claimed that electricians “make a hundred and some odd dollars an hour. The concrete people just make fortunes. Laborers make hundreds of thousands of dollars a year.”

Attacking Lawyers for Stopping His Unlawful Evictions: A group of lawyers defended tenants at one Trump property who claimed they were being unlawfully evicted. When the courts sided with the tenants, Trump tried to launch a racketeering lawsuit against the lawyers, claiming they were trying to “prevent, frustrate, and inhibit” him from making profits. The courts dismissed Trump's case.

Exploiting the Homeless, Bashing Refugees: Trump offered to put homeless tenants in his Central Park South building in a bid to try to drive the current tenants out so he could tear the whole thing down. The city offered to put Polish refugees there, but Trump countered he'd only allow “people who live in America now, not refugees.”

Bashing Ronald Reagan: Although not particularly crazy sounding, this may be a crazy thing for a leader in the polls of the Republican presidential primary to say. He compared rival developers to Ronald Reagan because they were “people who talk a good game but don't deliver.”

Telling the World African Americans Have It Easy: Spy quoted Trump telling reporters in 1989, “If I were starting off today, I would love to be a well-educated black, because I believe they do have an actual advantage.”

Blaming Other People For His Business Failings: In the early 1990s, Trump made a deal with Poland's tourism minister to build a series of “hotels, shops and gambling casinos in Warsaw,” but two years after the $55 million payment was made, ground wasn't even broken. “They've been patient? I've been patient,” said Trump. “Did you ever try to get quality marble in Warsaw? It's pathetic.”

What all this demonstrates is even though Trump may have changed his viewpoint on a number of things – such as his previous embrace of single-payer health care – one thing has not changed over the years. Trump remains an unrepentant blowhard, where it's 1985 or 2015.

Zaid Jilani is an AlterNet staff writer. Follow @zaidjilani on Twitter.
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Mon 10 Aug, 2015 08:31 pm
@bobsal u1553115,
I dont think anyone was of an opinion other than that Trump is a bombastic jeck, that is a big part of why we like him, why he is winning.

Making a detailed list is not going to matter.
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  1  
Mon 10 Aug, 2015 08:34 pm
Donald Trump on Megyn Kelly: 'She should really be apologizing to me'

By Tom LoBianco, CNN

Updated 0230 GMT (0930 HKT) August 11, 2015
Defiant Trump stands by criticism of news anchor


Defiant Trump stands by criticism of news anchor 02:14

Washington (CNN)Donald Trump said Monday that Fox News anchor and debate moderator Megyn Kelly should be the one apologizing to him, and not the other way around.

"She should really be apologizing to me, to tell the truth," Trump told MSNBC's "Morning Joe."

RELATED: Will Donald Trump's campaign survive?

Trump's comments mark a new layer in his continued scrapping on the "blood" comment -- which has roiled even Trump supporters and led to him being disinvited from the past weekend's conservative Red State conference.

Trump spent the weekend working the Sunday talk shows -- with the notable exception of Fox News Sunday -- in defense of his comment to CNN's Don Lemon.

"You could see there was blood coming out of her eyes," Trump told Lemon Friday night. "Blood coming out of her wherever."

He continued to insist Monday that anyone who assumed he was linking Kelly's debate questions to her menstrual period to be sick and said any assertion like that would be "inappropriate."

RELATED: Donald Trump: No apology on 'blood' remark amid GOP backlash

Trump swiped the spotlight at the beginning of last Thursday's debate when he was the only candidate not to rule out a third-party candidacy. News reports surfaced Monday, saying that he might reverse that position, but the Trump campaign denied them.

"There is no truth to this report and no change from what Mr. Trump has previously said," Trump spokeswoman Hope Hicks said Monday.

Trump, who has been calling in on-air to every network except Fox, tweeted Monday "Roger Ailes just called. He is a great guy & assures me that "Trump" will be treated fairly on @FoxNews. His word is always good!"

Roger Ailes just called. He is a great guy & assures me that "Trump" will be treated fairly on @FoxNews. His word is always good!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) August 10, 2015

Speaking on MSNBC, Trump laid out some of his reasoning for why he, himself, is not the one apologizing, pointing to continued support among Republican voters, even in the wake of the criticism.

"A lot of good things are happening, so maybe I shouldn't change anything," he said.

He said, again, that he would be "greatest" president for women if he was elected but declined to provide details. Pressed by MSNBC's Mika Brzezinski on whether he would support equal pay, Trump said he would not detail policy on the show but would have a proposal for women coming out soon.

"I don't want to discuss that on this show," he said. "I will be coming out with some policy on that."
Follow @CNNpolitics
bobsal u1553115
 
  2  
Mon 10 Aug, 2015 08:39 pm
5 Hilariously Unhinged Right-Wing Moments This Week: Trump Tries to Offend Every Single America
n
Trump and Huckabee prove you can't fake crazy or misogyny.
By Janet Allon / AlterNet
August 8, 2015

Print
Comments

American real-estate tycoon Donald Trump, pictured June 16, 2013, hit out at New York's top prosecutor who filed a lawsuit against him for running a sham university, calling him a "political hack".

1. Trump clarifies which of Megyn Kelly's orifices he really meant, which is tremendously helpful.

In a rare backtrack, Donald Trump assured the world that he did not mean to imply that Fox anchor Megyn Kelly was “on the rag” when he said she had "blood coming out of her wherever" on Friday. Well, he did not so much backtrack as make a whiny plea that he was so misunderstood. Trump added that "only a deviant" would think he meant she was menstruating.

Donald’s feelings were just really really hurt when Kelly was so mean to him during the debate. She asked attacky questions and "behaved very badly" he said, being weirdly paternalistic. Why would she do that? He thinks she’s pretty and she’s on his favorite network, after all. "She gets out and she starts asking me all sorts of ridiculous questions," Trump said during an interview Friday on CNN Tonight. "You could see there was blood coming out of her eyes, blood coming out of her wherever. In my opinion, she was off base."

Now he would like us to believe that by “her wherever” he actually meant her nose. But somehow that word escaped him? Either that or he could not be bothered to list the remainder of non-vaginal orifices, and thought "wherever" would just cover them.

Seems entirely credible to us. It’s not like he has a history of overwhelmingly sexist and misogynist statements and behavior or anything.

Oh, wait. He does.

2. Mike Huckabee wants to remind people that he too is bat-sh*t crazy.

Some GOP candidates have performed obvious stunts to regain the “crazy” spotlight Donald Trump stole from them in the past few weeks. Ted Cruz’s insane video in which he demonstrates his love of bacon and machine guns by cooking his bacon on his machine gun, and Rand Paul’s theatrical chainsaw massacre of the tax code come to mind. But former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee does not need such stunts. He’s the real deal.

In his customary "aw-shucks, I'm just a grit and gun-lovin' guy" demeanor, Huckabee put his deranged mind on display during the GOP debate. One notable moment was his bizarre tangent on Social Security, which he first described as Gestapo-like, since Americans are “forced” to pay into it against their will. Then, without noticing any logical inconsistency, he proceeded to blame “freeloaders” for the program’s “troubles.”'

“One of the reasons that Social Security is in so much trouble is that the only funding stream comes from people who get a wage,” Huckabee explained. “The people who get wages is declining dramatically. Most of the income in this country is made by people at the top who get dividends and capital gains.”

Just when it seemed that the real issue of economic inequality might have slipped into the GOP debate uninvited, Huckabee explained that the tax-dodgers he meant were “illegals, prostitutes, pimps, drug dealers,” and that the whole thing could be solved by the rather ineptly named “Fair Tax,” which taxes consumption.

Confused yet? We are. And so, it appears, is the Huckster, who went on to offer up unhinged theories about how he’ll “invoke the Fifth and 14th Amendments so that we clearly know that that baby inside the mother’s womb is a person at the moment of conception.”

Huckabee finished his insane rant with a bang.

"It's time that we recognize the Supreme Court is not the supreme being, and we change the policy to be pro-life and protect children instead of rip up their body parts and sell them like they're parts to a Buick."

See what we mean about no one doing crazy better?

3. Todd Starnes is sooooo mad at his Fox colleagues for asking all those hard questions at the debate.

Apparently, no one told Fox Newsian Todd Starnes that the debate was not going to be a big ol' love fest for his favorite Republican candidates, which apparently includes Donald Trump, Ben Carson and Scott Walker.

Starnes unleashed a storm of angry tweets during his network's event, including:
http://www.alternet.org/files/styles/large/public/starnes1a.png

http://www.alternet.org/files/styles/large/public/starnes2.png

http://www.alternet.org/files/styles/large/public/starnes3.png

Truly an upsetting night for a man who thought he was working for an extension of the RNC. Maybe there's room for him over at that Trump organization.

4. Steve King says we soon may be marrying our lawnmowers.

Iowa Tea Partier Steve King is not running for president, but he definitely has the credentials—if the credentials are being certifiably, well, certifiable.

While many right-wing haters have suggested that legalizing same-sex marriage will free people up to marry children, or multiple partners, or even animals, King envisioned a darker scenario this week. Soon, people will be free to marry their lawnmowers, he said.

It bears noting that he said this at a Mike Huckabee campaign event. The two men share a certain rhetorical flourish.

In King and Huckabee’s nightmare scenario, such is the power of love that will be unleashed across the land by the Supreme Court’s decision to allow same-sex marriage, people will soon declare their love for all manner of inanimate objects, including the tools in their garage (especially the power tools,) and the appliances in the kitchen.

Perhaps now is a good time to confess that we have always harbored secret feelings for our blender.

5. Rick Santorum also brings his crazy to the kiddie version of the GOP debate.

Being consigned to the junior GOP debate did not stop Rick Santorum from flying his flake flag high and proud this week. Santorum rewarded the early shift of GOP Debate Drinking Game participants by offering a triple whammy.

With an assist from debate moderator Bill Hemmer, Santorum was able to mash together abortion, same-sex marriage and slavery, and then compare himself to Abraham Lincoln. That takes some high-flying feats of delusional mental acrobatics. But Santorum proved utterly up to the task.

Hemmer reminded the candidate that abortion and now same-sex marriage are settled law thanks to Supreme Court decisions—those unfortunate byproducts of the Constitution so many conservatives profess to love. Santorum said he begs to differ.

“It is not [settled law] any more than the Dred Scott [decision backing slavery] was settled law to Abraham Lincoln,” Santorum insisted. “This a rogue Supreme Court decision.”

And where does that Supreme Court get off ruling on the constitutionality of a law? (Which is what, of course, the Supreme Court does.)

“We passed a bill and we said, Supreme Court, you’re wrong!" Santorum said, using the appropriate syntax for the kiddie table. "We’re a co-equal branch of the government, we have every right to stand up and say what is constitutional.'”

Take that, Supreme Court.

And drinking game participants, take a double shot!
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Mon 10 Aug, 2015 08:39 pm
@bobsal u1553115,
Quote:
There is no sign that Donald Trump's raucous first presidential debate is hurting his support among party voters, with the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll showing he still has a big lead over his rivals for the Republican presidential nomination.

Trump's staying power is defying predictions of political doom and leading some Republicans to explore ways to persuade him not to pursue a third-party bid should he falter in his quest for the Republican nomination in 2016.

Trump led the party's 17-strong 2016 presidential field with the backing of 24 percent of Republican voters, unchanged from before Thursday's televised debate, the Reuters/Ipsos poll found.

His closest rival, former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, trails at 12 percent, down from 17 percent before the debate. No other candidate earned more than 8 percent in the online poll, conducted between the end of the debate and Sunday.

Rather than chastened, Trump was emboldened by his debate performance, despite strong criticism for boorish comments he made about Fox News debate moderator Megyn Kelly when she asked about his past derogatory comments about women.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/08/10/us-usa-election-poll-idUSKCN0QF1WL20150810

The fantasy life of A2K'ers is running as healthy as ever.....
0 Replies
 
edgarblythe
 
  4  
Mon 10 Aug, 2015 09:44 pm
https://scontent-iad3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xta1/v/t1.0-9/11825954_916657061732849_1847645931092778174_n.jpg?oh=6e0533c35361a45433c7536d4ac74360&oe=5682F902
0 Replies
 
bobsal u1553115
 
  1  
Mon 10 Aug, 2015 09:53 pm
Donald Trump’s Six Stages Of Doom

By Nate Silver

The recent polling surge by Donald Trump has launched a thousand stories about Trump’s “unprecedented campaign.” But it’s nothing all that unusual: Similar surges occurred for almost every Republican candidate four years ago, including Herman Cain, Michele Bachmann, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich (twice).

History’s lesson isn’t necessarily that Trump’s candidacy will go bust tomorrow, however. There are plenty of examples of fringe or factional candidates who held on to their support for much longer than the month or two that Cain and Bachmann did. Sometimes, they did well enough in Iowa or New Hampshire, or even won them. Pat Buchanan claimed New Hampshire in 1996, for instance, while Mike Huckabee won Iowa in 2008. Steve Forbes took 30 percent of the Iowa vote in 2000.

The lesson, rather, is that Trump’s campaign will fail by one means or another. Like Cain, Bachmann and Gingrich, Buchanan, Huckabee and Forbes came nowhere close to winning the Republican nomination.

If you want absurd specificity, I recently estimated Trump’s chance of becoming the GOP nominee at 2 percent. How did I get there? By considering the gantlet he’ll face over the next 11 months — Donald Trump’s Six Stages of Doom:
Stage 1: Free-for-all

When it happens: This is the stage we’re in now; it will continue through the next couple of months.
Potential threat to Trump: Increased attention to other GOP candidates.

One of the occupational hazards for those of us who write about politics for a living is a kind of time dilation. If you’re charged with filing several campaign stories a week, then two or three weeks can seem like an eternity.

But most Americans have other things on their minds right now. Paying the bills. Finally taking that vacation. Baseball. They’re not really paying a lot of attention to the campaign. Based on historical patterns of Google search traffic, the level of public interest in the primary campaign right now is less than one-tenth as high as it will be later in the cycle.

This is why it’s absurd to focus on how Trump’s polling is changing from day to day. When Trump made his idiotic comments about John McCain’s military service a few weeks ago, there were a few news outlets like the New York Post who suggested it might bring about his immediate demise. We were skeptical of that conclusion at FiveThirtyEight. For a variety of reasons, Trump isn’t affected much by negative media coverage — it may even help him. But a lack of media coverage might be a different story.

If, like most Americans, you’ve been paying only passing attention to the GOP campaign, then pretty much the only candidate you’ll have been hearing about is Trump. According to data compiled by the Media Research Center, Trump has received more network news coverage than Jeb Bush, Scott Walker and Marco Rubio combined. So if a pollster calls you and rattles off 17 names, and there are six or seven candidates you like well enough, which name might you mention when asked for your first choice? Possibly Trump, since his name will be top-of-mind. There’s a near-perfect correlation, in fact1 between how much news coverage a candidate has received and where they rank in recent national polls:


The causality here is murky. Do candidates receive more news coverage because they’re polling well? Or do they poll well because they receive more news coverage? Undoubtedly, there’s some of both, which creates the possibility of a feedback loop.

But the circuit could be broken once there’s some news about another candidate. Every Republican on stage will have the opportunity to make news in the debate tonight, for instance. It’s possible we’ll still be talking about the Trump surge in a few weeks, but it’s also possible that we’ll be contemplating the Ben Carson or Ted Cruz or Chris Christie surge instead.
Stage 2: Heightened scrutiny

When it happens: Mid-November or thereabouts, as voters up their level of attention to the campaign
Potential threat to Trump: Polling support doesn’t translate to likely, more-informed voters.

In the general election, Labor Day is the traditional benchmark when there’s a substantial acceleration of public interest in the campaign. I’m not sure there’s quite the same demarcation in the primaries, but, in my experience, the timbre of the race will have changed by Thanksgiving or so. Voters, especially in the early voting states, will be doing less “window shopping” and instead will be thinking about who they might cast a ballot for. The polls will change too, starting to home in on what they deem to be “likely voters.” There’s some evidence that Trump is over-performing among “low-information voters.” By November, their ranks will decrease: They’ll either have become more informed, or they’ll be screened out by pollsters because they aren’t likely to vote.
Stage 3: Iowa and New Hampshire

When it happens: Feb. 1 and Feb. 9, based on the provisional calendar.
Potential threat to Trump: Middling performance in one or both states, either in an absolute sense or relative to polls.

Eventually, we’ll have some real votes to test the polls against. The odds are that the polls will be pretty far off in the first few states; they’re historically not very accurate in primaries and caucuses. One reason for this, perhaps the principal one, is because turnout is hard to predict. Trump has built some semblance of an organization in Iowa (he has less of one in New Hampshire), but it probably won’t be the best in the state at persuading voters to turn out.

Despite the relatively poor track record of polls in Iowa and New Hampshire, however, they have a major influence on how the results are interpreted by the press. Historically, the candidates who get the most favorable media coverage and receive the biggest “bounces” out of Iowa and New Hampshire are not those who perform the best in an absolute sense but instead those who beat the media’s expectations. It’s possible that Trump will master expectations management between now and Iowa, but, given his tendency to trumpet every favorable poll, he could also set himself up for a fall. A Trump who finishes in third place with 14 percent of the vote in Iowa won’t have much to brag about.
Stage 4: Winnowing

When it happens: mid-February through mid-March
Potential threat to Trump: Other candidates drop out, and remaining ones surpass Trump.

But some candidates with parallels to Trump have done perfectly well in Iowa and New Hampshire. In fact, there’s been about one such Republican, on average, in every contested election cycle. Below, I’ve listed past Republican candidates who (i) had less than 5 percent of the party’s endorsement points as of the date of the Iowa caucuses, meaning they had very little support from the party establishment, but (ii) won at least 20 percent of the vote in Iowa anyway. There are six of these candidates, ranging from rabble-rousers like Buchanan to religious-right candidates like Huckabee, to another self-funded billionaire in Forbes.


The problem is that they didn’t go very far from there, winning an average of just 14 percent of the popular vote across all the remaining primary and caucus states that year. Even a candidate who did a little better than that, retaining 25 or 30 percent of the vote, would soon be bypassed as the rest of the field consolidated down to one or two other establishment-backed alternatives. This is especially likely to be a problem for Trump. Contrary to what you may have read elsewhere, he’s actually not all that popular among Republicans. His favorability ratings among Republicans have improved since before he declared himself a candidate2 but remain in the bottom half of the GOP field and well below the standard of candidates who have been nominated in the past.

We’ll handle the final two stages together:
Stage 5: Delegate accumulation

When it happens: mid-March through final primaries in June
Potential threats to Trump: Poor organization in caucus states, poor understanding of delegate rules, no support from superdelegates.
Stage 6: Endgame

When it happens: June through Republican National Convention, July 18-21
Potential threat to Trump: The Republican Party does everything in its power to deny him the nomination.

If Trump makes it past Stage 4, we’ll have to consider his campaign successful, up to a point. He’ll have gotten further than any similar candidate has in the past. But he’d still be a long way from winning the nomination, and the final two stages might be his hardest yet.

The Republican Party’s delegate selection rules are straightforward in some states but byzantine in others, especially in caucus states where delegates are sometimes not formally pledged to the candidate who apparently earned their support on election night. Furthermore, about 7 percent of delegates to the RNC are party leaders — what Democrats would call “superdelegates” — who are usually not bound by the results of the popular vote in their states at all.

This introduces a little bit of slack into the system. It works in favor of establishment-backed candidates, or those who have an intricate understanding of the delegate rules. And it works against candidates like Trump.

Regular FiveThirtyEight readers will be familiar with “The Party Decides” paradigm of the nomination process. It posits that the nominee represents the consensus choice of influential members of the party, and that rank-and-file voters serve mostly to vet and validate the candidates in the event of a close call.

Much of the party’s influence consists of what you might call “soft power,” the ability to influence outcomes by persuasion rather than coercion. But the party also has some “hard power”: It literally makes the rules. It can rule against candidates it doesn’t like in the event of delegate-counting disputes. It can probably even change the rules midstream. There isn’t a lot of precedent to worry about violating, since it’s been 40 years since Republicans came close to a brokered convention.

If Trump made it this far, the Republican Party would go to extraordinary lengths to avoid nominating him. In “The Party Decides” view, parties are basically looking for two things from their nominees: They want them to be reliable (meaning, they can be counted on to enact the Republican agenda once in office), and they want them to be electable (meaning, they can win in November). It’s hard to think of a candidate who does worse on those two measures than Trump. He’s exceptionally unpopular among independent voters. But he also has a checkered political past that includes once having supported abortion rights and universal health care. For the Republican Party, he’s the worst of all possible worlds.

So, how do I wind up with that 2 percent estimate of Trump’s nomination chances? It’s what you get3 if you assume he has a 50 percent chance of surviving each subsequent stage of the gantlet.4 Tonight’s debate could prove to be the beginning of the end for Trump, or he could remain a factor for months to come. But he’s almost certainly doomed, sooner or later.

Check out our live coverage of the first Republican debate.
Footnotes

0.92, if you’re scoring at home. ^
Possibly since before Trump declared himself a candidate, it also wasn’t clear that Trump was a Republican. ^
Rounding to the nearest whole percent. ^
That might be a generous estimate for some stages, particularly Stage 4 — which has choked off all Trump-like candidates in the past — and Stage 6. ^

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. @natesilver538
ehBeth
 
  1  
Mon 10 Aug, 2015 10:05 pm
@bobsal u1553115,
Nate Silver needs to take a look at what came out of the Koch party in Orange County.

(maybe he has since this ^predates the debate and most articles about the Koch event)
hawkeye10
 
  0  
Mon 10 Aug, 2015 10:14 pm
@ehBeth,
Quote:
But these first post-debate polls do provide another reminder that politicos, pundits, and journalists are still struggling to wrap their heads around the durability of Trump’s particular appeal. We keep expecting his campaign to implode, but so far every time it begins to smoke it instead ends up catching fire.

http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2015/08/10/donald_trump_post_debate_polls_trump_s_lead_grows_after_fox_news_debate.html

I have been pointing out for years the elites tendency to bungle, but what we see here is that the elite are running to catch up with where the people are. They dont understand why Trump is doing so well because they dont understand what is going on in the nation generally. And this goes double for the journalists, who in this day and age tend to be all ego but stupid in general and not particularly interested in honesty either to others or to themselves. If these people want to understand why Trump has so much support they need to go spend a few days with people who support him, and they need to shut up and listen, and then they need to seriously consider what they have been told. Few will make the attempt, and fewer will succeed, because they will not take the people talking to them as equals.
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Mon 10 Aug, 2015 10:37 pm
@hawkeye10,
Quote:
To me, this proves the Pollyannas inside the Beltway are missing the depth of Trump's support. Trump isn't going to fade away (like, say, Herman Cain did) and leave all his supporters milling about, deciding which Republican to now back. This "he'll fade away... somehow" conventional wisdom is nothing more than wishful thinking, in fact, from conservatives who are getting more and more worried about where this whole Trump road is leading. Again, over half of Trump's supporters are already poised to leave the party to follow Trump. Seeing as how he's polling at around one-fourth of the entire Republican electorate, that's a fairly sizeable chunk of the Republican base to lose.

Republican Party leaders are now desperately trying to convince themselves that Trump would never actually run as an independent, and that even if he did nobody would follow him. I look at it a different way. Do you really think Donald Trump would pass up a chance to appear on a general election debate stage with only (say) Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush standing next to him? Does anyone really think his ego wouldn't be delighted to be one of only three people on a presidential debate stage? Trump could easily convince himself that the bar for winning the White House would actually be lower if he ran as an independent (he could theoretically win with just 35 percent of the vote, after all). And with 54 percent of his voters already willing to follow him on such a run, it may indeed prove irresistible for Trump.


http://www.huffingtonpost.com/chris-weigant/new-poll-shakes-up-gop-ra_b_7968588.html?ncid=txtlnkusaolp00000592

I tend to think that Trump will get bored and will be looking to get back to his regular life and to looking after his business deals, but maybe not. Besides, who is going to run his operation if this gets serious? Most the the GOP elite would never consider it, and it is not likely that he can come up with enough quality amateurs.

If trump wants to do this and can put together a team he can win this....but what are the chances of both happening?
Olivier5
 
  1  
Mon 10 Aug, 2015 11:01 pm
@hawkeye10,
Let him run as an independent. That will ruin the repukes chances for good.
 

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