@oralloy,
Quote:No. Fooling people with a very large conventional explosive does not require identical effects. It only requires something that will impress someone who doesn't know any better.
So you're not able to produce an example of a conventional bomb that is similar in effect--or even close--to that of an atomic bomb, right? Right.
Besides arbitrarily proclaiming what would, and would not, impress Japanese Military Intelligence when you have no way of knowing such a thing, you're also trying to dismiss a nine-mile high mushroom cloud as unimpressive.
Quote:Because it isn't my claim.
oralloy: Very large conventional weapons have an aftermath and mushroom clouds too.
Glennn: Then why don't you tell me what kind of conventional bomb from the 1940s creates the same aftermath as that of an atomic bomb. And which one would create a mushroom cloud that would rise to a height of fifty thousand feet and be seen from a hundred miles away?
oralloy: It isn't a question of identical effects. It's a question of a conventional bomb being impressive enough to fool someone who didn't know any better, which would lead Japanese officials who didn't witness any of it to suspect that we had fooled their witnesses.
Glennn:
Yeah it is. That's why I asked you to tell me what kind of bomb from the 1940s creates the same aftermath as that of an atomic bomb and a mushroom cloud that rises to a height of fifty thousand feet which can be seen from a hundred miles away. You implied that an atom bomb would appear to be a conventional bomb because conventional bombs create mushroom clouds, too. So it most certainly is a question of identical effects.
So rather than sidestep the issue,
why don't you provide something to support your claim. I'm thinking that a you tube video of a blockbuster bomb creating a mushroom cloud that rises fifty thousand feet would be good. Can you provide something like that?
oralloy: . . . it isn't my claim.
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So it is your claim . . .
Quote:In your proposed scenario they aren't sending anyone with expertise.
Oh, okay, then let me propose that they send someone from military intelligence who would understand that what they were witnessing was certainly not anything like a conventional bomb.
Quote:A random officer might be trustworthy as far as honestly describing something to the best of their ability, but that doesn't make them immune to being fooled.
Again, a nine-mile high mushroom cloud and an incinerated forest.
Quote:There were people in the Japanese government who even suspected that the Hiroshima attack was a ruse.
The team that went to Hiroshima was led by Dr. Yoshio Nishina, who had been a leader on the Japanese fission research program. He and a general arrived at Hiroshima on the morning of August 8th and began examining both the characteristics of the damage (e.g., by examining knocked-down grass and trees, he could discern from what direction a uniform blast wave had traveled, for example) and the human remains (many of which showed signs of immediate high-temperature burns, and were measurably radioactive). From that he concluded very quickly that the weapon was an atomic bomb. On the evening of August 8th sent back to Tokyo the message:
What I've seen so far is unspeakable. Tens of thousands dead. Bodies piled up everywhere. Sick, wounded, naked people wandering around in a daze... Almost no buildings left standing. It's all true then? Hiroshima is completely wiped out? Completely. ... I'm very sorry to tell you this... the so-called new-type bomb is actually an atomic bomb.
Quote:No. There were no expressions of such opposition during the war when the A-bombs were actually being used.
You are again using their obligation to follow orders without question as a way to discredit their statements that Japan was already defeated and that incinerating cities full of people was not a military necessity.
The commanding general of the U.S. Army Air Forces, Henry H. "Hap" Arnold, gave a strong indication of his views in a public statement only eleven days after Hiroshima was attacked. Asked on August 17 by a New York Times reporter whether the atomic bomb caused Japan to surrender, Arnold said:
The Japanese position was hopeless even before the first atomic bomb fell, because the Japanese had lost control of their own air.
In his 1949 memoirs Arnold observed that
"it always appeared to us that, atomic bomb or no atomic bomb, the Japanese were already on the verge of collapse." (See p. 334, Chapter 27)
Arnold's deputy, Lieutenant General Ira C. Eaker, summed up his understanding this way in an internal military history interview:
Arnold's view was that it [the dropping of the atomic bomb] was unnecessary. He said that he
knew the Japanese wanted peace. There were political implications in the decision and
Arnold did not feel it was the military's job to question it.
Eaker reported that Arnold told him:
When the question comes up of whether we use the atomic bomb or not, my view is that the Air Force will not oppose the use of the bomb, and they will deliver it effectively if the Commander in Chief decides to use it. But it is
not necessary to use it in order to conquer the Japanese without the necessity of a land invasion.
[Eaker also recalled:
"That was the representation I made when I accompanied General Marshall up to the White House" for a discussion with Truman on June 18, 1945.
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Even Truman himself knew that the Japanese were looking for peace:
The Americans, having broken Japanese codes, were aware of Japan's desperation to negotiate peace with the U.S. before the Soviets invaded. Truman himself described an intercepted cable from July 18, 1945, as the "telegram from the Jap emperor asking for peace."
Truman reiterated this in a letter to his wife the next day: "We'll end the war a year sooner now, and think of the kids who won't be killed."
Quote:That would be small comfort to any POWs at the center of the explosion.
We've already discussed the problem with your insistence that there is no way to time things in such a way that there would be no time to move POWs to the the kill zone. As I said, no one needs to be that close to ground zero.