64
   

Let's get rid of the Electoral College

 
 
Robert Gentel
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Nov, 2008 01:45 pm
@Setanta,
Setanta wrote:
The two party system is the product of many factors, not the least of which is collusion between the two parties to kill off any rivals--but the electoral college did not create or shape the two party system.


You yourself credited the winner-take-all method of allocating the electoral votes with helping to prop up the two party system here. I understand that you want to keep the institution while changing this method of allocating votes, but I want to eliminate that method by the removal of the institution itself because I have qualms with it outside of the winner-take-all vote allocation.

Quote:
Personally, i think there is more true democracy in the United States, even with the electoral college, than there is in other industrial democracies.


How are you measuring this?
fbaezer
 
  2  
Reply Mon 24 Nov, 2008 02:09 pm
@joefromchicago,
joefromchicago wrote:

For instance, Mexico has a "first past the post" system for presidential elections: i.e. the candidate with the most votes wins, regardless of how many votes he or she receives. In 2006, the top two candidates won 35.89% and 35.31% of the national vote, a difference of about 240,000 votes out of over 41 million cast. The second-place finisher, Lopez Obrador, claimed that fraud and other electoral shenanigans invalidated the totals and protested the decision to give the election to his opponent, Calderon. In fact, Lopez Obrador still hasn't recognized the 2006 election as legitimate, which just shows that popular vote systems aren't immune to these types of controversies.


If he were running against him, López Obrador would not have recognized Obama's victory, on the grounds he had more money to spend.
He does not recognize the internal elections within his own party, either, since his finger-picked candidate lost. He says it was "a pigsty".
He does not recognize an oil reform his party managed to pass... because they voted with Calderón's party.
Of course popular vote systems aren't immune to controversies... but you can't use López Obrador in a serious argument. He's a joke.


Oh... and according to my mental calculations, López Obrador would have handily won the Presidency while losing the popular vote, had Mexico the US Electoral College system.
Thank God we don't.
0 Replies
 
Robert Gentel
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Nov, 2008 02:25 pm
@joefromchicago,
joefromchicago wrote:
Again, some see that as an advantage to the American system. And, in terms of results, there's something to be said for two centrist parties rather than a multitude of more doctrinaire parties.


There are both positives and negatives to either direction (more parties or centralized parties). I prefer more parties but also appreciate there being strong parties in the mix, or at least strong coalitions of political parties.

Quote:
The US has had pretty much the same political system in place since 1804, which is a fairly good record as far as democracies go.


Tradition for tradition's sake is no better than change for change's sake. That it hasn't changed much is a testament to its stability but I don't equate stability with good any more than I would equate change with good.

Quote:
I'm not proposing any system.


Ok, but do you favor any system?

Quote:
Well, 204 years of success is one measure of the public's acceptance of the current system's legitimacy. You may have your own personal gripes, but the people as a whole seem to accept it.


Popularity is relevant in democracy, in that if most Americans prefer the electoral college system I think they should have their way. But it doesn't mean that it's a better system.

I'm not sure that a majority of Americans prefer the electoral college but I'd agree that not enough disprove of it to change the system and that it's widely accepted.

Quote:
Robert Gentel wrote:
My desire to get rid of the electoral college isn't motivated in the slightest by any the results being hotly contested or by controversy over who has won. But I acknowledge that this may matter a lot more to others than it does to me.

It probably should be a concern.


It is a concern, but isn't a motivation for advocating change. My qualms with the electoral college don't stem from their results being contested.

Quote:
Robert Gentel wrote:
I care more about the accuracy of the representation of my political power more than whether the results are closer and contested more often but can see a legitimate downside to political controversy.

Well, if an electoral system reflects your will as a voter but yields uncertain results, then I'm not sure where the advantage is. That's rather like saying that, as long as the spark plugs are firing, you don't care if the car runs or not. Elections aren't just about the process, they're also about the results.


This is a false analogy. More political controversy doesn't mean that the system isn't working.

Quote:
But then to say that the election was a disaster because Gore didn't win is merely assuming that electoral systems must give the victory to the candidate with the most popular votes, and that's the point you're attempting to establish. That's akin to question-begging.


My argument for getting rid of the electoral system is not predicated on the notion that Gore didn't win. It is based on my preference for equal political representation.

Because I prefer equal political representation, I see Gore's defeat as a failure. It would be question-begging if I were supporting the argument that equal representation is better through portrayal of this as a failure but that just wasn't the case. I was commenting on why the 2000 elections were a "disaster" and not on the merits of the system I propose.

You'd been talking about the political controversy as what made that a "disaster" and I was saying that to me the fact that disproportionate representation overrode popular will was the negative and not the contesting of the results.

Quote:
It's not pointless to be a Republican voter in California, it's just that Republican presidential candidates tend to lose in California elections. But as long as you're having elections, you're going to have losers.


There is a significant difference in that in a popular vote system you'd need to be in a losing camp nationwide, whereas with the electoral college system you merely need to be in the loosing camp within your state (assuming it doesn't proportionally allocate the electoral votes) to not have your vote represented in electoral votes.

Quote:
No, it just means that you voted for the loser. Your options: either get over it and move on or else start voting for winners. That's the same choice that democracy gives to every voter.


Not all democracies are created equal. And in American democracy, sometimes you aren't voting for the nationwide "loser". For example, a Republican vote in California in 2004 was for the winner, but was not represented in electoral votes. This is not the same as having your vote represented more directly and losing.
fbaezer
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Nov, 2008 03:00 pm
Done my math.
López Obrador, winning 15 states and the Federal District, would have defeated Calderón, who won in 16 states, by 189 electoral votes to 165.

Here's an "American style" map:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d8/2006_Mexican_election_per_state.svg/300px-2006_Mexican_election_per_state.svg.png

(Blue states, won by Calderón; Yellow states, won by López Obrador... notice the dramatic political divide between North and South...don't pay attention to the number on each state... it's alphabetical)
joefromchicago
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Nov, 2008 07:41 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Robert Gentel wrote:
Tradition for tradition's sake is no better than change for change's sake. That it hasn't changed much is a testament to its stability but I don't equate stability with good any more than I would equate change with good.

I never equated an electoral system's stability with whether it's good or not.

Robert Gentel wrote:
Quote:
I'm not proposing any system.


Ok, but do you favor any system?

I like the idea of instant runoff voting, which can be implemented now without requiring a constitutional amendment. I also like multi-member legislative districts with cumulative voting, but that would require a constitutional amendment to implement at the congressional level.

Robert Gentel wrote:
Popularity is relevant in democracy, in that if most Americans prefer the electoral college system I think they should have their way. But it doesn't mean that it's a better system.

Well, popularity is especially relevant in a democracy, but then I never said that popular systems are thereby better systems.

Robert Gentel wrote:
Quote:
Well, if an electoral system reflects your will as a voter but yields uncertain results, then I'm not sure where the advantage is. That's rather like saying that, as long as the spark plugs are firing, you don't care if the car runs or not. Elections aren't just about the process, they're also about the results.


This is a false analogy. More political controversy doesn't mean that the system isn't working.

If a system that is supposed to produce certain results instead yields a lot of ambiguous results, that's a pretty good indication that it's not working.

Robert Gentel wrote:
My argument for getting rid of the electoral system is not predicated on the notion that Gore didn't win. It is based on my preference for equal political representation.

Because I prefer equal political representation, I see Gore's defeat as a failure. It would be question-begging if I were supporting the argument that equal representation is better through portrayal of this as a failure but that just wasn't the case. I was commenting on why the 2000 elections were a "disaster" and not on the merits of the system I propose.

You'd been talking about the political controversy as what made that a "disaster" and I was saying that to me the fact that disproportionate representation overrode popular will was the negative and not the contesting of the results.

How is that not a comment on the system you propose?

Robert Gentel wrote:
There is a significant difference in that in a popular vote system you'd need to be in a losing camp nationwide, whereas with the electoral college system you merely need to be in the loosing camp within your state (assuming it doesn't proportionally allocate the electoral votes) to not have your vote represented in electoral votes.

How is that a significant difference? If I vote for Candidate A, and Candidate A wins the national election even though Candidate B wins my state, how am I disadvantaged?

Robert Gentel wrote:
Not all democracies are created equal. And in American democracy, sometimes you aren't voting for the nationwide "loser". For example, a Republican vote in California in 2004 was for the winner, but was not represented in electoral votes. This is not the same as having your vote represented more directly and losing.

Again, where is the disadvantage? If a California citizen voted for Bush in 2004, and Bush would have won the national election under either an electoral college format or a popular vote system, where's the disadvantage to that California voter? Bush would have won either way, so the fact that all of California's electoral votes were cast for Kerry is largely irrelevant. It's only in close elections that the results can get scrambled, but then it's in close elections that a system's flaws are most often exposed -- and that goes for popular vote systems as well as for the electoral college.
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Nov, 2008 07:48 pm
@joefromchicago,
The disadvantage is that my single vote has been worth less than someone in wyoming's vote has been for my whole life, through what I think of as mob-snobbery.
Or, land breadth over persons.
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Nov, 2008 07:55 pm
@ossobuco,
I get state representation in the senate, and agree with Robert re the presidential election.
joefromchicago
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Nov, 2008 08:03 pm
@fbaezer,
fbaezer wrote:

Done my math.
López Obrador, winning 15 states and the Federal District, would have defeated Calderón, who won in 16 states, by 189 electoral votes to 165.

Here's an "American style" map:

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/d/d8/2006_Mexican_election_per_state.svg/300px-2006_Mexican_election_per_state.svg.png

(Blue states, won by Calderón; Yellow states, won by López Obrador... notice the dramatic political divide between North and South...don't pay attention to the number on each state... it's alphabetical)

That's pretty impressive work, but how did you come up with your numbers? The Mexican chamber of deputies has 300 seats allocated on a district basis. If we allocate two additional electoral votes per state, then there should be 364 electoral votes, no? You only have 354. You're missing ten votes.

In any event, while this exercise is very interesting, it's highly artificial. There were three major-party candidates who split the popular vote roughly 36-35-22. The US hasn't had a presidential contest where the winner took less than 40% of the popular vote since 1860. In a US-style electoral system, Madrazo, the third-place candidate, wouldn't have even run, or would have been a minor fringe party candidate. Which only shows once again that close elections (especially close elections with multiple candidates) will expose the flaws inherent in any electoral system.
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Nov, 2008 08:05 pm
@ossobuco,
whines on...

plus the fact that my vote in a winner take all state will somehow come out in electoral votes for the person I was against, via the winner take all thing. Really, this stuff is primally insulting to many voters.
0 Replies
 
joefromchicago
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Nov, 2008 08:07 pm
@ossobuco,
ossobuco wrote:

The disadvantage is that my single vote has been worth less than someone in wyoming's vote has been for my whole life, through what I think of as mob-snobbery.
Or, land breadth over persons.

Your vote for senate is worth even less than that in comparison, yet I don't see you advocating a constitutional amendment to end the equal representation of states in the senate. Sometimes, other considerations are deemed to be more important than that of mere numerical equality.
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Nov, 2008 08:13 pm
@joefromchicago,
I'm fine with it for the senate as the matter of local concerns comes into play - I presume, and that is balanced, I take it, by the reps in the House.
0 Replies
 
cjhsa
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 24 Nov, 2008 08:13 pm
I must be on Craven's socialist ignore button.

Dump A2K.
0 Replies
 
fbaezer
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Nov, 2008 08:24 pm
@joefromchicago,
joefromchicago wrote:


That's pretty impressive work, but how did you come up with your numbers? The Mexican chamber of deputies has 300 seats allocated on a district basis. If we allocate two additional electoral votes per state, then there should be 364 electoral votes, no? You only have 354. You're missing ten votes.


Finger mistake. Embarrassed
López Obrador would have gotten 199 (167+32), and Calderón 165 (133+32)

joefromchicago wrote:


In any event, while this exercise is very interesting, it's highly artificial. There were three major-party candidates who split the popular vote roughly 36-35-22. The US hasn't had a presidential contest where the winner took less than 40% of the popular vote since 1860. In a US-style electoral system, Madrazo, the third-place candidate, wouldn't have even run, or would have been a minor fringe party candidate. Which only shows once again that close elections (especially close elections with multiple candidates) will expose the flaws inherent in any electoral system.


I know it's artificial.
I don't see the difference between "close elections" and "close elections with multiple candidates".

There was talk after the Mexican elections in 2006 to go to the "second round" French method.
It was a typical "how could this particular election be less contested" reaction, but one can imagine precisely the same outcome in a two rounds election.

IMHO, the problem with the Electoral College method has very little to do with close elections (even if State differences are, almost by definition, smaller than nationwide differences), and a lot to do with the concept of "one citizen, one vote" and the fact that in the XXI Century voters do know who their national candidates are.
In any case, the American abnormality/weirdness is fun for outside observers (we can make maps of how our country would look like with your system, and other stuff) and good for election night TV ratings.
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Nov, 2008 08:57 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Quote:
You yourself credited the winner-take-all method of allocating the electoral votes with helping to prop up the two party system here.


Yes, and Joe contradicted me, and as i am unable to provide a source, i deferred to his statement.

Quote:
How are you measuring this?


By "local" control, by which i mean municipal, county and state elections. (I believe i have already referred to this, but i may have been unclear.) In many others of the industrialized democracies, seats in the national legislature, and in local legislatures, if they exist, are allocated on the basis of the percentage of the vote polled by each party. In the United States, of course, we vote for a named individual. In the other industrialized democracies, local taxes and the allocation of those taxes are subject to the control of regional or national government. In the United States, citizens vote on tax levies, school levies and ballot initiatives at all levels (except the national level, although the right to do so at the national level is available--i suspect that the petition process is too daunting for anyone to have tried)--municipal, county and state. In state elections in most states (i think perhaps in all of them, but i don't wish to make a statement i cannot support), key executive offices which are appointive in other industrial democracies, and which are appointive in the American national government, are elective--Secretary of State, Treasurer, Comptroller or Auditor, Attorney General. Furthermore, the Federal government cannot exercise its powers within the boundaries of a state in matters solely occurring in that state, except in so far as individually guaranteed rights can be alleged to have been violated (fourth amendment, fourteenth amendment). So, for example, if you buy a pack of Camel cigarettes in North Carolina, or a bottle of Rebel Yell Bourbon in Kentucky, there is no Federal excise tax, because the product has not crossed the state line. In many states, judges are elected rather than appointed, and appeals from judgments of state courts can only be made on an allegation of the infringement of individual rights, denial of due process or violation of prior precedents established in Federal courts. Law enforcement agencies are under the control, respectively, of municipal, county and state agencies, the directors of whom are either elected (such as a Sheriff) or appointed by a known elected official who can be held responsible by the electorate.

As time has gone by, the independence and sovereignty of the several states has been eroded, and they've often made a devil's bargain with the Feds in order to get federal funding. Nevertheless, i remain convinced that Americans control their own destinies through a democratic process which is not matched elsewhere in the world.

Apart from the guarantee of a republican form of government in every state, the Constitution leaves the affairs of each state in its own hands, and the ninth and tenth amendments were ratified to make it clear that that is the case. In turn, states have tended to leave the affairs of counties and municipalities in the hands of those elected by the residents of those districts.
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Nov, 2008 09:06 pm
@Setanta,
Quote:
Quote:
You yourself credited the winner-take-all method of allocating the electoral votes with helping to prop up the two party system here.


Yes, and Joe contradicted me, and as i am unable to provide a source, i deferred to his statement.


In making this response, i forgot to point out that a winner take all system is not mandated by the constitution.
0 Replies
 
joefromchicago
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Nov, 2008 10:49 pm
@fbaezer,
fbaezer wrote:
I don't see the difference between "close elections" and "close elections with multiple candidates".

Well, for instance, if the 2006 Mexican presidential election had been between two candidates rather than three, there wouldn't be calls for instituting a runoff. Multiple-candidate elections have their own set of problems and solutions.

fbaezer wrote:
IMHO, the problem with the Electoral College method has very little to do with close elections (even if State differences are, almost by definition, smaller than nationwide differences), and a lot to do with the concept of "one citizen, one vote" and the fact that in the XXI Century voters do know who their national candidates are.

The US doesn't believe in "one citizen, one vote" for everything. The senate isn't apportioned according to population. One branch of the government isn't elected at all. And some parts of the country (e.g. Puerto Rico) don't get to participate in federal elections. Saying that we should have "one vote, one citizen" for presidential elections, therefore, doesn't close the debate, as if "one citizen, one vote" is the paramount, unquestionable virtue of democracy. It isn't.
0 Replies
 
BillRM
 
  1  
Reply Fri 28 Nov, 2008 11:32 am
@Robert Gentel,
It just is not going to happen so talking about it is a complete waste of time.

In order to amend the constitution you would need 2/3 of the states to go along with it and the small states would never vote to do away with the electoral college as it would reduce their influences greatly in selecting a president.
Setanta
 
  2  
Reply Fri 28 Nov, 2008 12:04 pm
@BillRM,
It is actually even less likely than your reply suggests. It takes two thirds of the Congress to propose an amendment, or two thirds of the several states to call for a new convention. Once amendment has been proposed to the constitution, it requires the ratification of three quarters of the several states to accomplish that end, or three quarters of the representatives of the several states met in convention. The entire text of Article Five of the Constitution reads, in its entirety:

The Congress, whenever two thirds of both Houses shall deem it necessary, shall propose Amendments to this Constitution, or, on the Application of the Legislatures of two thirds of the several States, shall call a Convention for proposing Amendments, which, in either Case, shall be valid to all Intents and Purposes, as part of this Constitution, when ratified by the Legislatures of three fourths of the several States, or by Conventions in three fourths thereof, as the one or the other Mode of Ratification may be proposed by the Congress; Provided that no Amendment which may be made prior to the Year One thousand eight hundred and eight shall in any Manner affect the first and fourth Clauses in the Ninth Section of the first Article; and that no State, without its Consent, shall be deprived of its equal Suffrage in the Senate.

Whatever the technical accuracy of your comment may have been however, you are completely correct in your assessment (in my never humble opinion) to the effect that this portion of the constitution is likely never to be amended.
BillRM
 
  1  
Reply Fri 28 Nov, 2008 03:17 pm
@Setanta,
Thank for the correction I remember the 2/3 figure concerning constitution amendments and did not remember that apply to congress passing the amendments to the states and it take a 3/4 vote of the states themselves to place it into effect. The convention route for amending the constitution had never been used so that is highly unlikeily to occur mainly because people fear what wide ranging amendments could come out of such a convention.

Snowball chance in hell indeed.
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Fri 28 Nov, 2008 03:55 pm
@BillRM,
Quote:
The convention route for amending the constitution had never been used so that is highly unlikeily to occur mainly because people fear what wide ranging amendments could come out of such a convention.


That, and hoary old tradition. For example, when the seat of government was still located in little New York (then little more than a large town), Washington once went to sit in the gallery to watch the proceedings. Essentially a private man, he did not like to be stared at, nor addressed by anyone with whom he was not friends, or with whom he had no business. Well, the boys on the floor played to the gallery shamelessly, with many knowing looks and nods, and the public in the gallery whispered and stared until Washington finally got up and left in disgust.

He was pretty good about taking care what precedents he set, but he missed the implications of that one. To this day, Presidents do not visit Congress without an explicit invitation, although the constitution, of course, is mute on that matter.

The same with a convention, the longer we go without another convention being called for, the less likely it is that there would ever be one. People, even if unconsciously, avoid innovation in the matter of governance.

Quote:
Snowball chance in hell indeed.


Amen.
 

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