@Robert Gentel,
Robert Gentel wrote:
joefromchicago wrote:I never equated an electoral system's stability with whether it's good or not.
Then can you elaborate on this:
joefromchicago wrote:And, in terms of results, there's something to be said for two centrist parties rather than a multitude of more doctrinaire parties. The US has had pretty much the same political system in place since 1804, which is a fairly good record as far as democracies go.
What makes this a "good" record?
It's "good" in the sense that it's a better record of stability than most other systems. It's the record that's good, not necessarily the system.
Robert Gentel wrote:Curious: Do you favor those to the current system?
Multi-member districts with cumulative voting isn't the kind of system that could replace the electoral college -- they address different types of electoral contests. Instant runoff voting can be adopted without doing away with the electoral college, so they're not incompatible.
In general, I am largely agnostic about the electoral college. Where I diverge from people who advocate popular voting systems is at the point where they contend that there are no disadvantages to adopting a popular vote system in place of the present system.
Robert Gentel wrote:Contested results don't mean ambiguous results. As fbaezer notes your example of this in López Obrador is of a man who seems likely to contest any unfavorable result.
Well, it all depends on your perspective, doesn't it. If it's your candidate who ends up with the short stick, then the results are disputed. On the other hand, if your candidate comes out the winner, then the other side is just a bunch of whiners. I'm sure there are people who think Lopez Obrador is a big crybaby but who also think Al Gore got screwed by the supreme court in 2000. If there is a significant portion of the population that believes an electoral result is illegitimate, then that's a real problem, and it doesn't matter if the people who believe that are all a bunch of crybabies or if they have a genuine point.
Robert Gentel wrote:You tout the decisiveness of the electoral college results yourself as a benefit, denying those votes representation in the system is to deny the votes the ability to provide such additional decisiveness to the election results.
Hunh?
Robert Gentel wrote:Here is what you said along those lines earlier:
Quote:Another good thing about the EC is that it magnifies small popular vote majorities, which lends an added degree of legitimacy to the result.
So if my votes are not represented because I was in the political minority in my state it denies my vote the influence toward at the very least the degree of legitimacy you are speaking of here.
You're going to have to do a much better job of explaining that. I can't make any sense of what you're trying to say here.
Robert Gentel wrote:Just as in the above scenario, if the degree of legitimacy is derived from the winning margins they have lost some political power.
Trying ... trying ... nope, still not following you.
Robert Gentel wrote:Furthermore, in other scenarios there are very obvious and clear disadvantages to the California voter under this system so this is a bit of a moot point (whether Californians are disadvantaged in the current system). In 2000, a Californian who voted with the majority in the state was disadvantaged by his vote being worth less than some smaller states, and was disadvantaged to the point of the winner of the popular election, which this voter would have voted for, losing the election.
Well, this notion that a Californian's vote is worth less than a Wyomingan's (Wyomingite's?) vote is really rather academic. Under the current system, your individual vote just doesn't matter very much at all, no matter where you live, unless you live in a "battleground" state. In this past presidential election, for instance, you had a much better chance of swinging the election with your vote if you lived in Ohio, Florida, or Virginia than if you lived in either California
or Wyoming.
Now, of course, in a popular vote system, those same sorts of geographic considerations wouldn't play a role. But presidential campaigns would still focus on certain geographic areas and ignore others -- it's just that they would focus on
different areas than they do now. Campaigns would pretty much ignore small states and concentrate on large urban areas. McCain wouldn't have spent much time in Iowa, for example, and Obama wouldn't have bothered to set up field offices in Montana, because there just aren't very many voters in those states -- at least not in comparison with places like Los Angeles or New York City or Chicago. Of course, some people would see that as an advantage -- as I noted before, I take no sides.
Robert Gentel wrote:That's a pretty big disadvantage. With the system, their popular choice and the country's popular choice lost. Without the system they would have won. And in every election, they have the disadvantage of having a vote worth less than some of other citizens.
The 2000 election, without question, demonstrated a significant defect of the electoral college system. But then, as I have mentioned before, that election would have posed a major problem for
any system, including a popular vote system. It's not at all clear that, had there been a popular vote system in place in 2000, Gore would have necessarily won.
Robert Gentel wrote:That's part of what I don't like about the electoral college. It only directly impacts the result in close elections so it's largely symbolic the rest of the time, making some more equal than others without changing the end result. When it does come into play it overturns the will of the people in favor of the will of the more equal people.
Two points about that: (1) there have been, at most, three elections since 1804 where the popular vote winner was the electoral vote loser: 1824, 1888, and 2000. Popular vote totals prior to about 1900, however, are generally unreliable, due to a variety of factors, so we will never know if Harrison really lost the popular vote to Cleveland in 1888 (1824 was a freak election, and those conditions will likely never be repeated). So we can only say, with some degree of confidence, that it was the 2000 election that saw the popular vote winner lose in the electoral college. That's not an optimal result, I'll admit, but given the system's overall track record, it's clearly an aberration.
(2) Equating the results of an election with the "will of the people" ignores all of the other parts of a democratic system that are also just as much the products of the "will of the people." For instance, the constitution is just as reflective of the "will of the people" as any election result, and the twelfth amendment is part of the constitution. So to say that the electoral college can overturn the "will of the people" is favoring the transitory expression of the popular will over its systemic expression. I'm not convinced, however, that the former is necessarily a better or more accurate expression of the popular will than the latter. In other words, if people want the electoral college, then they also want results that occasionally look like the 2000 election.