@sozobe,
I think he did too, sozobe, and the polls seem to agree with us. In fact, the polls think McCain did especially poorly tonight.
If McCain doesn't do something to change the narrative soon (and I mean this week soon), the focus is not going to be on "can McCain win" but "how badly will he lose".
Every projection for the electoral college I've seen that's worth it's salt has Obama between 329 and 364 electoral votes. He needs 270 to win and anything over 375 is considered a landslide. For Obama to get to 400 votes would necessitate him taking 50% of the South, but the latest polling shows that is not likely but not beyond his grasp, either.