19
   

Presidential Debate: Round 2

 
 
Reply Tue 7 Oct, 2008 04:28 pm
So tonight is the second Presidential debate.

Should be exciting. Anyone have any cool plans? I'm going to a public watch party here in Northern Virginia. I thought about staying home and watching, but I think being able to see how people react to the debate could add some perspective.

So predictions and expectations:

McCain
Predictions - Will avoid the do-we-really-know-obama attack. He does not want to give Obama the opportunity to reconstruct this attack angle. He will instead try and draw Obama away into discussions on things that track well with him, namely the surge. Any discussion on the bailout will be spun to attack the democrats.
Expectations - The town hall setting is supposed to be his comfort zone, so I expect him to be more aggressive in his language and posturing (compared to last debate where he couldn't even look at Obama).

Obama
Predictions - Obama will focus on the economy and do his best to continue his definition of McCain as a continuation of the Bush administration. Obama will also address the nature of the McCain campaign and it's smear tactics as being irrelevant to the problems that working class families who are hurting right now. Obama will try to be a little more firm in his language. The Kerry campaign did not do a good job of quickly addressing the attacks from Bush et al.
Expectations - Obama has to go beyond his performance at the last debate. He will have to take some risks to leave here with the needed momentum to carry through the week.


On an related note to the campaign here in Virginia, I was working with APALA (Asian and Pacific American Labor Alliance) representing APIA (Asian and Pacific Islander Association) in a voter drive over the weekend. We walked in several different neighborhoods to register voters. Both groups are bi-partisan. While walking, we did see other voter registration groups out as well (Monday was VA's deadline to register). Many groups saw Obama voter drives, no groups saw any McCain voter drives. All of my roommates are now registered in VA and voting Obama.


T
K
O

  • Topic Stats
  • Top Replies
  • Link to this Topic
Type: Discussion • Score: 19 • Views: 10,457 • Replies: 196

 
OCCOM BILL
 
  3  
Reply Tue 7 Oct, 2008 04:37 pm
@Diest TKO,
I'll be hoping to see Obama do a controlled exasperation thing, where he lights into McCain hard (not unlike Biden towards the end of the VP debate when he just demanded to be heard). I think he'd do well to show some teeth, to offset McCain's ability to portray him as weak. If done right; he may be able to knock McCain off his game altogether. Any McCain stumble will basically be a knockout punch... so I say push him into one.
Butrflynet
 
  2  
Reply Tue 7 Oct, 2008 04:44 pm
What time is it supposed to start? Tennessee right? Is that central or eastern time?

Diest TKO
 
  1  
Reply Tue 7 Oct, 2008 04:46 pm
@Butrflynet,
9:00PM EST

Tell your friends!
K
O
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Reply Tue 7 Oct, 2008 04:46 pm
@Butrflynet,
9PM eastern time; 6PM pacific time.
realjohnboy
 
  2  
Reply Tue 7 Oct, 2008 04:47 pm
@Diest TKO,
It will be cool if, in the town-hall format, Tom Brokaw can keep Mr McCain and Mr Obama on topic re responding to the questions. I am skeptical, though.

(Re Virginia, Diest, I noted last night on Nimh's withering Polls, Charts and Pretty Graphs thread-he seems to have found a new home outside of A2K-that it looks like some 350,000 new voters in VA. This in a state with 4,000,000 registered voters). Amazing.
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Tue 7 Oct, 2008 04:49 pm
@OCCOM BILL,
I'd like to see Obama directly ask McCain to explain some of the negative ads that he's been running, and why he thinks they are appropriate.

I'm hoping to see Obama ask McCain what his direct thoughts are on the Credit-swap financial market or whether or not it's a good idea for Bernake to be buying up commercial paper.

I'm betting that we will see, instead, lots of pablum from both of them.

Cycloptichorn
Butrflynet
 
  2  
Reply Tue 7 Oct, 2008 04:52 pm
@realjohnboy,
If you're talking about the new observationalism blog, that's a consortium of five or six A2K posters who are writing posts there. Sozobe, nimh, engineer, JoefromChicago and Freeduck. I think Dags may be joining them too.

There's a topic here that records how it all evolved.

http://able2know.org/topic/123063-1
OCCOM BILL
 
  3  
Reply Tue 7 Oct, 2008 04:56 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

I'd like to see Obama directly ask McCain to explain some of the negative ads that he's been running, and why he thinks they are appropriate.
That is precisely the trigger I have in mind to get exasperated.

I think Obama would demonstrate himself as the more astute student of the economy if he responds to McCain's predictable Fanny/Freddie finger pointing by, articulately explaining the roll of the CDS market... and how it's lack of regulation and insane growth is what made the Fanny/Freddie defaults so devastating. I don't think many people really understand it. I didn't until recently, and I like to think I do pay attention.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  2  
Reply Tue 7 Oct, 2008 05:04 pm
@cicerone imposter,
NPR had a thing this evening about who the audience would be and who would be asking the questions. Quite a small audience. Everyone had to submit to a questionaire as to whether they worked for the media, a political party, a PR firm etc. Participants wrote down their questions and submitted them to Brokaw who will read them and choose which author to pose the question. The idea there is to ensure that there will not be a lot of redundancy.
If I were running, I would ask the audience member (and by extension the veiwers) when I finished: "Did I answer your question?"
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Tue 7 Oct, 2008 05:04 pm
I'm picturing a sputtering short guy ranting with arms flailing,cheeks huffing and puffing while this tall dude has the short guy at arms length with a hand on his forehead holding him off with one arm tied behind his back. Meanwhile, the tall dude casually goes on with his response to an audience question about the economy and the short guy is still swinging at flies. Wink

Should be entertaining and just as productive. I'm sure MSNBC/Brokaw will enhance the scene for the TV audience with canned laughter, cheers, boos and instant replays in the appropriate moments.
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Reply Tue 7 Oct, 2008 05:06 pm
Obama has to show some macho more than an intellectual. He has to show some ka-reez-ma to show he's not a robot in a glass case.
Diest TKO
 
  2  
Reply Tue 7 Oct, 2008 05:20 pm
@cicerone imposter,
Charisma he's got to spare. I agree with OB that he needs to go more firm and show the teeth a little more.

For Obama, tonight he needs to do more than win, he needs to start his end game to close the race.

T
K
O
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Reply Tue 7 Oct, 2008 05:31 pm
@Diest TKO,
There are a slew of material for Obama to attack McCain on Mae and Mac including the fact that Bush himself identified the problems back in 2003 when the congress was republican.

The fact that McCain voted 90% with Bush shows he's still a Bush republican.

That McCain can divert the facts into fiction is a real political skill.

Obama has to press with the truth, because we'll know what will happen after the debate with FactCheck. Obama has to stay away from innuendos and truth-stretching, and leave that for McCain.

We already know that the media will replay the debate with their talking points ad nauseum; some people will "get it."
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Tue 7 Oct, 2008 05:34 pm
@Diest TKO,
Katie Roiphe and Matthew Yglesias on the Financial Crisis’ Upside and Why McCain May Well ‘Win’ Tonight’s Debate

Quote:
K.R.: I think there is also the need for a news story, and Obama is very poised and his lead is not an interesting news story. In a way the only thing that can happen from the commentators' point of view is McCain Loses His Temper or McCain Electrifies Audience.

M.Y.: It's better for the news biz if the race returns to being a nail-biter, so I kind of suspect that McCain will be proclaimed the winner no matter what happens.

K.R.: I am also curious about this audience of "undecided voters." I mean, at this point who is undecided? What exactly is unclear about the issues? I wonder sometimes if people don't pretend to be undecided because that is the position of power: Persuade me! Woo me!

M.Y.: I do think there's a lot of research indicating that most people who say they're undecided actually have pretty clear leanings. And, of course, if I knew that pretending to be undecided might help me get to ask a question in a debate, I'd gladly lie.
sozobe
 
  3  
Reply Tue 7 Oct, 2008 05:38 pm
@Diest TKO,
I dunno. I thought the same in the first debate but undecided/ uncommitted voters seemed to give Obama a bigger win than I thought. The attacky stuff doesn't go over well. And we're talking about "no-drama Obama" here -- we don't really want him to get too far out of his persona.

Firmness I think he'll do (and I think he did it in the first debate too).

Overall I think that the greater physicality of this debate will benefit Obama. They were standing in the first one but camera angles and such glossed over the difference in stature, for example. They won't be going into each other's space but I still think that the height difference will be more pronounced, as well as just general fluidity, vitality, that sort of thing. (Standard disclaimer -- no, I don't think this is a good basis for how to decide who to vote for and it's not my own basis -- but these things are a factor for many voters.)

In the first debate, a poll by Pew I think found that the second-most-frequently used word to describe McCain (after "experienced") was "old." That's bad for McCain.

I also know that Obama is way way WAY better at town halls than he's ever gotten credit for. I guess that was cemented in the exchanges about whether they'd do 10 town halls in a row over the summer... the fact that it didn't happen was seen as an admission of weakness by Obama, or something. But he's GOOD at them, very good. And McCain is supposed to be the master. So I think that part is very much in Obama's favor.

The format of this debate seems to discourage follow-ups, which is bad. (Lynn Sweet had a post where she thoroughly explains the format, I can try to find that back.)

I think that Obama is going to try to needle McCain in a low-key way, without being outright aggressive. McCain is wound TIGHT and I think there are some hopes that he might be goaded into an explosion. Which would rock.

I don't know what sort of restrictions the audience will have -- if they're still directed to remain quiet, not applaud, etc. The Sweet post/ article said that the camera will be on the audience member when he/she asks the question, but won't show the response (visually.)

Overall it seems like things will be pretty subdued and I think that'll be bad for McCain, too. I think he feeds off the applause and approval in usual townhall settings.

It does seem like the audience might skew center-right, though, because of how they were selected. Uncommitted at this late date, and demographically representative. So that might be bad for Obama.

McCain surely knows the stakes and may well be able to keep everything in check and maybe even show some humor -- this isn't definitely all Obama's, by any means. And of course Obama could still make an unforced error.

Gawd I wish I could watch!!!!!! I hate these late starts. The Friday one was OK, kid could wake up late the next day, but these school-night ones suck. Sigh.
Diest TKO
 
  2  
Reply Tue 7 Oct, 2008 05:42 pm
@ehBeth,
ehBeth - This is exactly what I'm talking about. Obama needs to begin his end game. He needs to do more than win the debate, he needs to capture the public attention and be the headline.

Look at last week's VP debate, it's not enough to just win, you have to exceed expectations. Every news source had two stories.

1) Biden won.
2) Palin exceeded expectations.

Story number 2 is a helluva lot more exciting and so that's where the press went. but when you step back that's like Lance Armstrong winning the Tour de France and the press running a story about a man who didn't belong in the race to begin with just not falling off his bike.

T
K
O
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Tue 7 Oct, 2008 05:53 pm
@sozobe,
Off topic tip I learned from my sister. Go shopping for a good air purifier to put in the Sozlet's room. Not only may it improve her health; a properly chosen one will provide a gentle soothing hum that will increase your ability to make noise in other rooms without disturbing her. Wink
0 Replies
 
cicerone imposter
 
  2  
Reply Tue 7 Oct, 2008 06:00 pm
@ehBeth,
From ehBeth's post:
Quote:
K.R.: I am also curious about this audience of "undecided voters." I mean, at this point who is undecided? What exactly is unclear about the issues? I wonder sometimes if people don't pretend to be undecided because that is the position of power: Persuade me! Woo me!


I find this really unsettling, because we now have enough information about the candidates to decide who we should vote for. Obama: Steady, thinks things through before opening his mouth, has outlined his ideas about the a) bailout, b) our economy, c) taxes, and d) how to redirect our country away from the Bush debacle. McCain: His judgment should be questioned based on his choice of Palin for veep, he's flip-flopped on how he would help congress decide on the bailout, and he said only a few weeks ago that our "economy is strong." His selection of Palin not only questions his judgment, but he's not what he says about doing things "for our country." If he really meant what he says, he would have selected someone with national and international knowledge and experience; a real public servant rather than a attack dog with lipstick who has no depth in anything. McCain's leadership misses by a mile. He couldn't even get the republicans to vote "yes."

Those still undecided will never be ready to vote - intelligently.
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Tue 7 Oct, 2008 06:00 pm
@Butrflynet,
I have seen obversationalism. Would yall mind if I join in? It is a little amusing that, as I read down the pages, the left hand side of the text gets cut off.
0 Replies
 
 

Related Topics

Obama '08? - Discussion by sozobe
Let's get rid of the Electoral College - Discussion by Robert Gentel
McCain's VP: - Discussion by Cycloptichorn
McCain is blowing his election chances. - Discussion by McGentrix
Food Stamp Turkeys - Discussion by H2O MAN
The 2008 Democrat Convention - Discussion by Lash
Snowdon is a dummy - Discussion by cicerone imposter
GAFFNEY: Whose side is Obama on? - Discussion by gungasnake
 
  1. Forums
  2. » Presidential Debate: Round 2
Copyright © 2019 MadLab, LLC :: Terms of Service :: Privacy Policy :: Page generated in 0.06 seconds on 08/25/2019 at 08:26:11