He's had a bone to pick with McCain for over 6 years now and I don't think you can chalk this one up to Palin. The only thing I found in a quick search to back this up was a video from February
, where he says that John McCain doesn't love the Republican party and that his method is to say that Republicans are "racist and wrong and stupid for thinking the way they do" and claims that "he's not interested in the project of saving conservatism in the Republican party, he's trying to build a movement with the Republican party as his personal vehicle".
Ponnaru endorsed McCain as what he thought was the strongest candidate of the Republican pack but said that since the endorsement McCain alienated Republican conservatives and that he should limit himself to one term
. He started turning this corner way back in 2007.
David Brooks goes back and forth between being liberal or conservative and breaks with his currently professed party often. He criticizes Reagan and Goldwater and while I do think this is an example of a professed "moderate" no longer liking McCain he's been turning left for the last few years now (no cite, just my impression from reading him over the years) and was arguing against parts of the Republican party platform last election.
This is as close to being swayed by Palin as I can see so far, but from what I know of him he was ready to break with the Republican party as long as it didn't play to the center because he's not been happy with the Bush administration at all. He used to want a cross party ticket and I think as McCain lost the "maverick" label his luster to Brooks would have faded anyway because he wants a candidate as politically conflicted as he is.
Palin may well be the final straw in his case, but I wouldn't have bet on him voting Republican this election even without Palin.
These guys were not going to vote McCain. This is the same board that endorsed him and then implied that he'd been cheating on his wife. I haven't visited your link because I think it's the one I remember well where they level some very good criticism against McCain that I agree with. But it's certainly not an example of him losing any votes. They endorsed McCain as the Republican candidate but I would bet good money that the overwhelming majority of the board would not have voted for him. This is what I mean where he's getting additional criticism from people who may have once liked him but who weren't going to vote for him.
(By the way, I was wrong, it was Kevin Drum that came up with that term, not Steve Benen.)
Yeah but he wasn't making a list of people who were going to vote McCain, his qualification was "if they sort of liked McCain in the first place
" and his examples were:
Kinsley - I've already quoted him saying he had no intention of voting McCain long before Palin.
Friedman - he's one of my favorite liberals and I read him a lot and would have bet every dollar I had that he'd not vote Republican this year regardless of Palin
Mallaby - in June he claimed
that "The real pro-growth candidate in this campaign looks to be Barack Obama" and while he claims he lost respect for McCain due to his "Palinization" he was clearly tilting toward Obama much earlier.
Joe Klein - This guy called Bush "clearly unfit to lead
" in 2007 and has been criticizing McCain for his Iraq position for a long time. This is not a vote lost for McCain because of Palin either.
E. J. Dionne - Another lifelong liberal who wrote a book titled "Why Progressives Will Dominate the Next Political Era". This guy wasn't going to vote for McCain.
Ruth Marcus - Her column biography says she leans left. I don't know her too well but I suspect this isn't a lost vote either.
Mark Halperin - I'm not sure who he would have voted for, but I do know that this is the guy that the right tried to use as an example of leftist bias in the media when he was at ABC. I'm not sure this is much of a loss either.
Bob Herbert - He has said that "Without the many great and noble deeds of liberals over the past six or seven decades, America would hardly be recognizable to todayâ€™s young people
" and this guy wasn't going to vote Republican either.
So the "Enough Club" is basically what I said it was, liberal or left-leaning columnists who probably weren't going to vote for McCain just saying they now like him even less.
That's not news and this time of year everyone who's picked a side likes the other side less.
This is what polls are indicating, too. Palin is helping with core people (who are after all core) but not with independents et al. Obama has just tied the highest lead in Gallup that he's ever had. Etc.
I don't read either the literal data of the poll or the interpretation of the poll the way you do then. Because on the literal front I him leading by 6 at the most after the Palin/RNC bump and by as much as 8 in the days immediately before the Palin/RNC bump.
As to Palin not helping with "independents" I'd agree but have been contending that independents are overrated. They aren't what McCain needs in this election cycle because he's on the wrong side of where they are going to lean anyway. After the Bush administration people who were in the middle aren't leaning right. McCain shouldn't abandon the Republican's base to try to court them.
Some gains, some losses, and overall not helping.
The polls may not show that it's working well enough to beat Obama but I don't think the polls show that this wasn't the only shot McCain had or that it's not helping. Despite a much weaker convention they got a bigger bounce that I ascribe to Palin. Sure that's subsided but Palin's also gone into hiding (because she's a liability on the trail and needs to stretch the novelty for later in the campaign) and McCain's bungled ads pretty hard and the economy fears got a lot worse (which helps Obama as he's seen as the stronger candidate for the economy in national polling).
I don't think there's anything in the poll data so far that suggests that Palin was a bad strategic pick for McCain. Perhaps just that it wasn't enough but I think if the data is showing anything it's that Palin gave the campaign new wings. I think the "too far" McCain ads and Wall Street are the biggest reasons that Obama's back in the lead and think that without Palin he would be pulling away into an even larger lead.