@dyslexia,
An actual blog post, not a link (as in, all me, not something I've seen elsewhere):
Drip-drip-drip
I think what we're seeing right now is New Hampshire redux. I think that while Clark Hoyt is correct when he says that "the drip-drip-drip of [of stories re: Palin] seems like partisanship to Palin’s partisans," most of what has been reported is valid. Some isn't.
But I think that the drip-drip-drip is very much an issue, and lends to a sense that Palin is under siege. That there is a backlash against the backlash more than a real positive groundswell of support for Palin.
Between the Iowa primary and the New Hampshire primary, Obama was portrayed as a shoo-in, as having already overcome the biggest obstacles, and Hillary was portrayed as washed-up and over. I think the coverage then was much more biased and baseless than the coverage now -- I said that at the time, and was most definitely NOT a Hillary supporter.
I think now it's more (though not exclusively) about the confluence of circumstances, but the bottom line is the same.
I think the plucky, strong, "I'm not giving up" female is a really powerful trope. And I think all kinds of people -- not just women -- tend to want to push back against what they think is unfair coverage and premature crowning of the (male) upstart as the winner.
What I will be interested in is what happens when the initial media frenzy subsides a bit -- when new tidbits aren't coming out every hour, and more is known.
The debate could go a few ways. I'm very concerned that Biden will be hamstrung. Palin may make an unforced error, and Biden might find the sweet spot -- dismantling her arguments in a gentlemanly fashion. Lord knows there will be enough opportunity.
But right now a lot of people seem to assume that Biden has the advantage there, and I don't think that's necessarily so.
This is so hard for Obama to navigate and undoubtedly the difficulties presented were part of the calculus when they chose her. That's politics. I do think that, just as with New Hampshire, things will eventually reach an equilibrium and that Obama's superior ground game, message, and organization will win out.
Like Hillary's, McCain's campaign is rife with interior tensions. "Senior aides" were leaking their displeasure with the Palin pick within a day or two after it happened, and Rick Davis keeps contradicting or being contradicted by other arms of the campaign. (For example, he admitted that the photo on the screen behind McCain during the convention speech -- Walter Reed middle school as opposed to Walter Reed hospital -- was a mistake, as he blamed someone else in the campaign for making the mistake. Later the McCain campaign insisted that no, they meant to have Walter Reed middle school, honest.) The drama won't suddenly stop if they start doing better in the polls. Various factions will claim credit, McCain will continue to refuse to take the reins in a decisive way (as has been pointed out, if he were really a maverick, Lieberman would be the VP). Meanwhile, Obama will keep doing the no-drama Obama thing.