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My little politics blog

 
 
ossobuco
 
  2  
Reply Sun 31 Aug, 2008 02:30 pm
@sozobe,
Thanks, I enjoyed your Dublin log a lot.
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  2  
Reply Mon 1 Sep, 2008 04:00 pm
More accounts and photos here too. Am looking to see if I can spot all of you in the crowds.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/8/31/102651/339/650/581084

http://www.flickr.com/photos/jmknapp/sets/72157607034017071/

And here's a video of Biden's Alaska moment:

http://www.truveo.com/Sherrod-Brown-at-the-ObamaBiden-Rally-in-Dublin-OH/id/4080029002

Lots of video clips from the rally are here:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U1xuDmPmps0&feature=related




sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 1 Sep, 2008 06:06 pm
@Butrflynet,
Thanks!

Didn't see myself nope but nice to see the photos anyway.

This is just a plonk as I do my evening window-closing:

http://yglesias.thinkprogress.org/archives/2008/09/executive_experience.php
sozobe
 
  3  
Reply Thu 4 Sep, 2008 09:00 am
@sozobe,
A plonk... James Fallows on Palin's speech. I think he makes some really good points.

http://jamesfallows.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/09/sarah_palin.php
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Thu 4 Sep, 2008 10:05 am
@sozobe,
Thanks, read the link, good points by Fallows. It made me bookmark the Atlantic for the magazine section in my toolbar (mag section not having kept pace with the newspaper section).
0 Replies
 
dyslexia
 
  2  
Reply Thu 4 Sep, 2008 10:44 am
@sozobe,
In both the short and the long term, fact checks will be the downfall of both mccain and palin. If obama and biden are not very careful they will also fall victim to fact checks.
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 8 Sep, 2008 11:45 am
@dyslexia,
An actual blog post, not a link (as in, all me, not something I've seen elsewhere):

Drip-drip-drip

I think what we're seeing right now is New Hampshire redux. I think that while Clark Hoyt is correct when he says that "the drip-drip-drip of [of stories re: Palin] seems like partisanship to Palin’s partisans," most of what has been reported is valid. Some isn't.

But I think that the drip-drip-drip is very much an issue, and lends to a sense that Palin is under siege. That there is a backlash against the backlash more than a real positive groundswell of support for Palin.

Between the Iowa primary and the New Hampshire primary, Obama was portrayed as a shoo-in, as having already overcome the biggest obstacles, and Hillary was portrayed as washed-up and over. I think the coverage then was much more biased and baseless than the coverage now -- I said that at the time, and was most definitely NOT a Hillary supporter.

I think now it's more (though not exclusively) about the confluence of circumstances, but the bottom line is the same.

I think the plucky, strong, "I'm not giving up" female is a really powerful trope. And I think all kinds of people -- not just women -- tend to want to push back against what they think is unfair coverage and premature crowning of the (male) upstart as the winner.

What I will be interested in is what happens when the initial media frenzy subsides a bit -- when new tidbits aren't coming out every hour, and more is known.

The debate could go a few ways. I'm very concerned that Biden will be hamstrung. Palin may make an unforced error, and Biden might find the sweet spot -- dismantling her arguments in a gentlemanly fashion. Lord knows there will be enough opportunity.

But right now a lot of people seem to assume that Biden has the advantage there, and I don't think that's necessarily so.

This is so hard for Obama to navigate and undoubtedly the difficulties presented were part of the calculus when they chose her. That's politics. I do think that, just as with New Hampshire, things will eventually reach an equilibrium and that Obama's superior ground game, message, and organization will win out.

Like Hillary's, McCain's campaign is rife with interior tensions. "Senior aides" were leaking their displeasure with the Palin pick within a day or two after it happened, and Rick Davis keeps contradicting or being contradicted by other arms of the campaign. (For example, he admitted that the photo on the screen behind McCain during the convention speech -- Walter Reed middle school as opposed to Walter Reed hospital -- was a mistake, as he blamed someone else in the campaign for making the mistake. Later the McCain campaign insisted that no, they meant to have Walter Reed middle school, honest.) The drama won't suddenly stop if they start doing better in the polls. Various factions will claim credit, McCain will continue to refuse to take the reins in a decisive way (as has been pointed out, if he were really a maverick, Lieberman would be the VP). Meanwhile, Obama will keep doing the no-drama Obama thing.
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 9 Sep, 2008 11:55 am
@sozobe,
Back to plonking:

http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/09/tpmtv_palin_a_reformer_simply_laughable_--_background.php

Very, very thorough debunking. Video clips, transcripts, all kinds of good stuff.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  2  
Reply Tue 9 Sep, 2008 12:03 pm
@sozobe,
By the way, I wrote this after some polls that showed a bigger McCain bounce than I expected. 10-pt leads, that sort of thing. Since then, polls have been much closer -- back to a tie or so. That's a much better place to start from than I feared.
FreeDuck
 
  3  
Reply Tue 9 Sep, 2008 06:51 pm
@sozobe,
I think this is about the smartest thing I have seen written in the last two weeks.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dave-winer/obama-name-your-cabinet_b_124869.html
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Tue 9 Sep, 2008 07:33 pm
@FreeDuck,
Interesting. I'm trying it on..
0 Replies
 
spendius
 
  1  
Reply Wed 10 Sep, 2008 05:47 pm
@FreeDuck,
Crikey!! Is it really?
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Sep, 2008 08:26 am
Mark Murray wrote:
A New York Times piece last Tuesday suggested that the Obama campaign's fundraising operation was struggling to reach its ambitious fundraising goals.

Well, think again.

NBC News has learned that Obama raised $66 million in August -- his biggest monthly haul of the campaign, which surpasses the more than $55 million the campaign raised in February. The Obama camp also notes that it added an additional 500,000 donors to its fundraising base.

By comparison, McCain raised at least $47 million in August, which also amounted to his biggest money month. Since the GOP convention, however, the Republican presidential nominee must now rely on the $84 million he received from the federal government.

Obama bypassed those federal funds, so he is free to raise and spend as much money as he can get his hands on.


http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/09/14/1395606.aspx
0 Replies
 
Butrflynet
 
  1  
Reply Thu 18 Sep, 2008 10:36 pm
Thought you might find this of interest:



A Conservative for Obama
My party has slipped its moorings. It’s time for a true pragmatist to lead the country.
Leading Off By Wick Allison, Editor In Chief

Quote:
THE MORE I LISTEN TO AND READ ABOUT “the most liberal member of the U.S. Senate,” the more I like him. Barack Obama strikes a chord with me like no political figure since Ronald Reagan. To explain why, I need to explain why I am a conservative and what it means to me.

In 1964, at the age of 16, I organized the Dallas County Youth for Goldwater. My senior thesis at the University of Texas was on the conservative intellectual revival in America. Twenty years later, I was invited by William F. Buckley Jr. to join the board of National Review. I later became its publisher.

Conservatism to me is less a political philosophy than a stance, a recognition of the fallibility of man and of man’s institutions. Conservatives respect the past not for its antiquity but because it represents, as G.K. Chesterton said, the democracy of the dead; it gives the benefit of the doubt to customs and laws tried and tested in the crucible of time. Conservatives are skeptical of abstract theories and utopian schemes, doubtful that government is wiser than its citizens, and always ready to test any political program against actual results.

Liberalism always seemed to me to be a system of “oughts.” We ought to do this or that because it’s the right thing to do, regardless of whether it works or not. It is a doctrine based on intentions, not results, on feeling good rather than doing good.

But today it is so-called conservatives who are cemented to political programs when they clearly don’t work. The Bush tax cuts"a solution for which there was no real problem and which he refused to end even when the nation went to war"led to huge deficit spending and a $3 trillion growth in the federal debt. Facing this, John McCain pumps his “conservative” credentials by proposing even bigger tax cuts. Meanwhile, a movement that once fought for limited government has presided over the greatest growth of government in our history. That is not conservatism; it is profligacy using conservatism as a mask.

Today it is conservatives, not liberals, who talk with alarming bellicosity about making the world “safe for democracy.” It is John McCain who says America’s job is to “defeat evil,” a theological expansion of the nation’s mission that would make George Washington cough out his wooden teeth.

This kind of conservatism, which is not conservative at all, has produced financial mismanagement, the waste of human lives, the loss of moral authority, and the wreckage of our economy that McCain now threatens to make worse.

Barack Obama is not my ideal candidate for president. (In fact, I made the maximum donation to John McCain during the primaries, when there was still hope he might come to his senses.) But I now see that Obama is almost the ideal candidate for this moment in American history. I disagree with him on many issues. But those don’t matter as much as what Obama offers, which is a deeply conservative view of the world. Nobody can read Obama’s books (which, it is worth noting, he wrote himself) or listen to him speak without realizing that this is a thoughtful, pragmatic, and prudent man. It gives me comfort just to think that after eight years of George W. Bush we will have a president who has actually read the Federalist Papers.

Most important, Obama will be a realist. I doubt he will taunt Russia, as McCain has, at the very moment when our national interest requires it as an ally. The crucial distinction in my mind is that, unlike John McCain, I am convinced he will not impulsively take us into another war unless American national interests are directly threatened.

“Every great cause,” Eric Hoffer wrote, “begins as a movement, becomes a business, and eventually degenerates into a racket.” As a cause, conservatism may be dead. But as a stance, as a way of making judgments in a complex and difficult world, I believe it is very much alive in the instincts and predispositions of a liberal named Barack Obama.


0 Replies
 
FreeDuck
 
  2  
Reply Fri 19 Sep, 2008 06:06 am
I'm going to slip a little self-indulgent prediction here. I see the McCain-Palin ticket imploding. I think there is a fundamental disconnect between the two candidates and that they represent two groups of people who do not overlap very much. As a result, I think when she makes little slip ups like the "Palin and McCain administration" and it becomes clear that people are coming to see her and not McCain, she will look like an usurper. Likewise, Palin fans will see all of his gaffes as him screwing up her chances. I see it coming apart at the seams absent some other major factor.
sozobe
 
  2  
Reply Fri 19 Sep, 2008 03:23 pm
@FreeDuck,
Yep. Not just the McCain/ Palin interaction in and of itself, but their respective staffs and the dysfunction therein. I agree with the "absent some other major factor" caveat too though. I didn't forsee the Georgia/ Russia thing or the current economic thing, each of which have had a big impact.

Here's another general thought/ prediction (my own):

One thing I remember reading about after the 2004 election is that there were a significant contingent of people who liked Kerry well enough and thought Bush was irritating but were wavering up until they got into the voting booth -- and that once they got there, they went with the safer choice. Osama Bin Laden had just released that tape, things were still unsettled, and people were pushed over to Bush by the idea that he was an incumbent and generally safer than Kerry (swiftboating did a lot to plant the Kerry=unsafe idea).

I think that one of the things McCain did with his selection of Palin is take away some of his ticket's safety. There will be some people who will just absolutely not vote for Obama, period. He's not going to get 100% of the vote. But in terms of those waverers, the ones who don't really think about it or who go back and forth, I think that Obama already has proven his gravitas... his safety. Biden is eminently safe.

McCain is a mixture -- he's the military man (safe) but maverick (unpredictable = unsafe). He's old (infirm = unsafe). He has tons of experience (safe). He made an out-of-left-field selection of an unvetted VP candidate (unsafe). And -- here's the point -- the candidate herself will trip all kinds of "unsafe" buttons, I think. The lying, the corruption scandal, her handling of it, the fact that she's a young mom of five kids, one of whom is still an infant -- unsafe, unsafe, unsafe. Glamorous, yes, energizing, yes, but unsafe.

So my thought is that she might really hurt the ticket in a way that polls won't show and will only become clear after the election. It'd be a small subset of the total voters and therefore maybe not really significant -- but if it's a close race, every little thing counts.

A thought anyway.
spendius
 
  2  
Reply Fri 19 Sep, 2008 03:33 pm
@sozobe,
soz wrote-

Quote:
I didn't forsee the Georgia/ Russia thing


And what does that say? The signals have been there a long time. They are still bleeping. The US is vulnerable to overstretch as with all empires.
sozobe
 
  2  
Reply Fri 19 Sep, 2008 03:36 pm
@spendius,
Put it this way... there are all kinds of tinderboxes out there. I didn't forsee this one becoming an issue at the moment that it did.

The point is that while I feel like I have a pretty good grasp of the two campaigns and the American electorate in general, and therefore a certain ability to predict, not everything can be predicted. That's pretty axiomatic, no?
spendius
 
  2  
Reply Fri 19 Sep, 2008 04:57 pm
@sozobe,
Yes.
sozobe
 
  2  
Reply Mon 22 Sep, 2008 02:01 pm
@spendius,
I love it when you're succinct. Smile

Back when it happened, I remember posting about the "poison pen" episode between Obama and McCain. 2005 or 2006, can't remember. One of those things that makes me miss our search function, really hard to find back at this point.

What I was impressed with was how Obama was clearly in charge during the episode, even though he was the junior senator. I remarked on a photo of the two of them laughing, with Obama's arm around McCain. I think that photo was taken right after this one, which I just came across and hadn't seen before:

http://dailyrepublic.typepad.com/photos/uncategorized/2008/05/19/obama_ready_to_ko_mccain.jpg

It's the kind of thing I bet I'd want to find back but wouldn't be able to, so am plonking. (Plus it's just entertaining, pre-debate...)
 

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