Hockey Moms vs. Soccer Moms

So the "Enough Club" is basically what I said it was, liberal or left-leaning columnists who probably weren't going to vote for McCain just saying they now like him even less.

sozobe wrote:

This is what polls are indicating, too. Palin is helping with core people (who are after all core) but not with independents et al. Obama has just tied the highest lead in Gallup that he's ever had. Etc.

I don't read either the literal data of the poll or the interpretation of the poll the way you do then. Because on the literal front I him leading by 6 at the most after the Palin/RNC bump and by as much as 8 in the days immediately before the Palin/RNC bump.

As to Palin not helping with "independents" I'd agree but have been contending that independents are overrated. They aren't what McCain needs in this election cycle because he's on the wrong side of where they are going to lean anyway. After the Bush administration people who were in the middle aren't leaning right. McCain shouldn't abandon the Republican's base to try to court them.

The saving grace for Republicans is that this does not appear to be a "base" election like the two won by George W. Bush. In 2000 and particularly 2004, both parties emphasized registering and turning out their own voters. This time, independents will be extremely important - a group that comprises roughly a quarter of the voters in party registration states. McCain's longtime appeal to independents gives him an opportunity to offset losses caused by a shrinking GOP base.

The polls may not show that it's working well enough to beat Obama but I don't think the polls show that this wasn't the only shot McCain had or that it's not helping. Despite a much weaker convention they got a bigger bounce that I ascribe to Palin.

Sure that's subsided but Palin's also gone into hiding (because she's a liability on the trail and needs to stretch the novelty for later in the campaign)

and McCain's bungled ads pretty hard and the economy fears got a lot worse (which helps Obama as he's seen as the stronger candidate for the economy in national polling).

I don't think there's anything in the poll data so far that suggests that Palin was a bad strategic pick for McCain.

Perhaps just that it wasn't enough but I think if the data is showing anything it's that Palin gave the campaign new wings.

I think the "too far" McCain ads and Wall Street are the biggest reasons that Obama's back in the lead and think that without Palin he would be pulling away into an even larger lead.

The Republican base has been shrinking, though. There are less self-professed Republicans now than there were in 2000 or 2004. So if McCain wins just Republicans, and Obama wins just Democrats, Obama wins the election.

If Obama wins Democrats AND Independents, he so wins the election.

That's arguable. Again I have to remember where I saw it and track it down, but a source I trust (Nate Silver?) said that Obama got the bigger convention bounce.

But that's exactly my point! I'm saying that she was a short-term gain and a long-time liability. "A liability on the trail" -- exactly!

and McCain's bungled ads pretty hard and the economy fears got a lot worse (which helps Obama as he's seen as the stronger candidate for the economy in national polling).

I don't think there's anything in the poll data so far that suggests that Palin was a bad strategic pick for McCain.

I'm saying it's just starting to show, and I think it will get worse. Some upswings when she has occasion to act plucky and besieged, but overall, I think she's already done the most for McCain's ticket that she will.

But I don't think she'll deliver much beyond that. Which I think will lead to more short-term gains than long-term ones. (Short-term -- ~3 weeks after her selection. Long-term -- beyond that.)

I disagree. I think that's part of it but I think that Palin is also a factor. Her favorability rankings have gone WAY down in just the past couple of weeks.

She started out as the most popular of the four (McCain Obama Biden Palin) and is now the least popular. (Can track down the chart I'm thinking of.)

I think that's directly attributable to the stuff that has been coming out about her, the lying about "Bridge to Nowhere," Troopergate, etc., etc.

And I think that will continue. The sheer amount of gratuitous, easily fact-checked lying she's doing is pretty amazing.

forget Hockey and Soccer, now it's

Quote:

The Wal-Mart Frontier
“Wal-Mart moms” may be the key to this election. And a certain gun-toting governor in red shoes is selling them what they want.

http://nymag.com/news/politics/powergrid/50277/

Quote:

“Her appeal is such an emotional appeal, I just don’t think issues matter much,” says Georges. “The McCain people have used her to turn Obama into the conventional politician. If you can step away from it and not be partisan, you just have to admit that it’s an incredibly neat trick, one of the cleverest things I’ve seen in my time in politics. If she doesn’t screw up, I really think she becomes transformative.” [..]

The question is whether all this will sink in with voters"or be overwhelmed by her celebrification.

Those "Palin Favorability is tanking" stories I read are all referencing this data:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2008/9/15/122356/840/535/599497

I agree with all of that, but think he was running the risk of not even getting the Republican base to vote. If that happened I can't see him winning enough independents from Obama to even have a shot at winning.

I know what post you are talking about (and yes it's Nate Silver). He was basically saying that measuring the McCain bounce from the pre-DNC levels shows less of a bounce but measuring it from pre-RNC levels alone indicate more of a bounce.

I thought he had a decent point but that the point was that the numbers were more complex than just measuring the days before and the days after and not so much that Obama had a bigger bounce.

But I think only politics junkies would even know if she's on the trail or not.

I think a lot of the people who are excited to have her on the ticket just want someone who they identify with there and won't be swayed by debates and campaigning anyway. As long as she doesn't screw up too much I think she's done the job they intend her to do.

I guess what I'm saying is that Biden is a guy who can campaign a bit, but he's not going to bring Obama anything substantial there either. Palin needs to be kept away from the cameras except for some scripted moments but she's bringing a lot more to the table than a guy like Biden could do for McCain.

and McCain's bungled ads pretty hard and the economy fears got a lot worse (which helps Obama as he's seen as the stronger candidate for the economy in national polling).

I don't think there's anything in the poll data so far that suggests that Palin was a bad strategic pick for McCain.

I think I agree and don't really see a lot more bouncing going on on the McCain side without some kind of surprise, but without that couple of percentage points she brought to the table I don't see any way McCain could compete.

But do you think what she brought to the table is going away?

Take any relatively unknown person on earth, put them on the Republican ticket right now and I guarantee you'll see their disapproval ratings soar because most of the people on the other side of the aisle will stop linking you. And that's largely what happened, the number of people who liked her didn't change much, the people who didn't is where almost all the change took place.

[...]

I think that's just a function of her entering the polarized race. She had astronomical ratings that none of those 4 could have held on this stage. Half the country had no reason to care about her and now half the country doesn't much like her.

I bet Obama had better approval ratings before running for president as well.

I see it as being about 3-4% the dishonesty that the McCain/Palin campaign trafficked in and about 7-8% just solidifying her role as a lightning rod.

Whether or not it will continue is one of the most interesting questions to me right now.

If McCain doesn't tone it down now that he's been smacked down by all the columnists and by Rove and now that his ads are becoming stereotyped as sleazy (I wish I could transcribe the SNL skit for you, but the words don't do it justice and it's the guy's voice that makes the skit)

they'd be insane to not tone it down a notch (and keep Palin in a closet for 3-4 weeks).

Her VP debate with Biden is in only 10 days -- that'll be interesting. I could really see it going either way. Scenario 1 -- Biden traps her in a lie (in a courtly, respectful way) and she sputters and has nowhere to go and looks bad. Scenario 2 -- Biden tries to trap her but she barely escapes and cries sexism and bullying to good effect. (There are of course many more scenarios than that, too, including the possibility of a monster Biden gaffe, or even offsetting gaffes with Palin getting the benefit of the doubt since she's the newbie...)

I don't think there's anything in the poll data so far that suggests that Palin was a bad strategic pick for McCain.

ST. PETERSBURG " Five weeks ago, the St. Petersburg Times convened a group of Tampa Bay voters who were undecided about the presidential election. Their strong distrust of Barack Obama suggested it was a group ripe for John McCain to win over.

Not anymore. The group has swung dramatically, if unenthusiastically, toward Democrat Obama. Most of them this week cited the same reason: Sarah Palin.

"The one thing that frightens me more than anything else are the ideologues. We've seen too many," said 80-year-old Air Force veteran Donn Spegal, a lifelong Republican from St. Petersburg, who sees McCain's new running mate as the kind of "wedge issue" social conservative that has made him disenchanted with his party.

"I'm truly offended by Palin,'' said Republican Philinia Lehr, 37, of Largo, a full-time mother with a nursing degree who voted for George Bush in 2004. Like Palin, she has five children and she doesn't buy that the Alaska governor can adequately balance her family and the vice presidency.

First presidential debate: foreign policy and national security,
moderated by Jim Lehrer

Friday, September 26, University of Mississippi, Oxford, Miss.

-- Two-minute answers, followed by five-minute discussion for each
question.


Vice presidential debate: all topics, moderated by Gwen Ifill

Thursday, October 2, Washington University in St. Louis, Mo.

-- Ninety-second answers, followed by two-minute discussion for each
question. Two-minute closing statements.


Second presidential debate: all topics in town meeting format, moderated
by Tom Brokaw

Tuesday, October 7, Belmont University, Nashville, TN

-- Two-minute answers, followed by one-minute discussion for each
question.


Third presidential debate: the economy and domestic policy, moderated by
Bob Schieffer

Wednesday, October 15, Hofstra University, Hempstead, N.Y.

-- Two-minute answers, followed by five-minute discussion for each
question. Two-minute closing statements.

I did see "a bigger bounce" somewhere -- that wasn't what I'd thought and I was pleasantly surprised by it. I'll see if I can track it down.

I don't think so. I think people are sensitive to the idea of a candidate hiding something. "What's she scared of? If she can't face the press, how can she face Ahmadinejad?" Etc. And this really ties in with other stuff going on, too. ("What's she scared of with the Troopergate investigation?" Etc.)

I agree. Past tense. "She's done the job..." NOW what?

I think Biden is doing well in Rust Belt areas right now. I've seen several quotes from formerly-undecided people who have been impressed with him. And he brings something to OBAMA's table in a way he maybe couldn't with McCain -- the whole experienced, sage elder thing. Reassuring. Plus the meta stuff about how Obama went about choosing his VP vs. how McCain did. (One's a serious choice with governing in mind, one's an unserious choice with electioneering in mind.)

Then there is the VP debate, of course.

I think the precipitous drop-off in favorability and the "you have GOT to be kidding me" reaction from formerly at least somewhat sympathetic members of the media are both bad indicators. But again I'm doing more prediction here than analysis of what's already happening.

But I think the Palin pick will end up hurting him more than she helps him.

Quote:

But do you think what she brought to the table is going away?

I don't think it's going away entirely, no. I just think its moment of greatest impact has passed.

But then why would the favorability ratings start out high in the week or two after she was picked, and THEN tank? She was announced as McCain's VP on August 29th; the first poll in the KOS thing you posted was September 11th, two weeks later.

Quote:

I bet Obama had better approval ratings before running for president as well.

Found this:



He announced he would run for president on February 10th, 2007.

Her VP debate with Biden is in only 10 days -- that'll be interesting. I could really see it going either way. Scenario 1 -- Biden traps her in a lie (in a courtly, respectful way) and she sputters and has nowhere to go and looks bad. Scenario 2 -- Biden tries to trap her but she barely escapes and cries sexism and bullying to good effect. (There are of course many more scenarios than that, too, including the possibility of a monster Biden gaffe, or even offsetting gaffes with Palin getting the benefit of the doubt since she's the newbie...)

I think the McCain team really likes the idea of being on the offensive and trying to get into Obama's head, so I think they're not gong to tone it down too much. We'll see.

(Did you see the thing about Michael Steele standing in for Obama as McCain prepares for their debate? What's up with that? Doesn't seem to have been definitely confirmed yet though.)

That's in itself hardly remarkable of course: the Presidential candidate matches up better than the Veep candidate! What else would you expect? After all, the same goes for Biden: he does 3 points worse than Obama against McCain, and 10 points worse than Obama against Palin.

But it may dampen all too hyped up accounts that have declared Palin the real vote puller of the Republican ticket now.