The 2008 Republican Convention...

McCain and Obama (and Biden) have each said they respect the other as patriots--and that they are friends and know each other has the nation's best interests at heart. I don't think any of them will step away from that. McCain's actions re the hurricane---where he and his party will be front and center...will likely be beneficial to him...depending on how he behaves.

Meanwhile, everybody is trying to get face time over Gustav,..including Obama. We'll see what they say and do...and how they react to Georgia as Russia shakes their sabre.

Well, we'll see.

I'll make a prediction: if McCain seems to be doing too well from the hurricane, you can expect Dems to remind the public that his past record includes multiple votes against hurricane relief for the same region.

Funny how an election year changes people's tunes...

Cycloptichorn

Seriously? The convention is going to be cancelled altogether, except for the bare minimums. No real speakers, nothing. The hurricane isn't going to just up and end on Monday, the devastation will just begin to be assessed on Tues; just when do you expect them to kick the thing back in?

Nope. I would bet that the entire thing is done remotely: McCain probably will give a taped address instead of appearing in person in MN.

'Selflessly,' lol, are you serious? Do you think anyone actually thinks that?

I'd still like to know what anyone thinks McCain and Palin are going to do down there, that will make them 'look good.' Are people suggesting that the two of them, walking around and looking concerned, is a substitute for the message-delivery power of the convention?

Anyone?

Cycloptichorn

I think that McCain is in a far better place to profit from this than Obama. It's certainly cynical, but whatever happens with the hurricane, it will be politicized. And proclaiming that this is not about politics is obviously politicizing as well.

I'd say that the candidate from the party of the current administration is simply in a position where he can appear more statesmanlike, simply by coordinating with his party and with the administration, and by being fully backed in whatever he does. (You'll probably argue that there's no love lost between McCain and Bush, but I'd say that it's a given that the Republican party as well as members of the current administration will prefer a future McCain presidency over Obama in the White House.)

Assumedly, things will simply be going smoother this time than during Katrina. Now, I don't know how far a senator can go, protocol-wise, but wouldn't Bush and McCain simply appearing side by side - Bush promising relief efforts and support, and McCain promising to continue these efforts as President - look very presidential? Picture Bush making an announcement, and then handing over to McCain, with the Presidential Seal prominently displayed somewhere... on the day of the Convention, with all the media tuned in.... and with McCain proclaiming that this is not the time for politics, but the time to act....

How could Obama possibly counter? Chime in, congratulate the President for his efforts? Criticize the politicizing of it all? Try to counter it by launching some kind of effort himself?

Christ, are you kidding? The absolute last person McCain wants to be photographed with is Bush!!!

I still haven't heard anyone say just what it is McCain is going to do. He's not a politician from the region; what actual actions is he going to take that would help anyone? I don't think anyone can answer that question. Instead, you will get lots of 'looking serious' at damage and many promises of doing whatever it takes to rebuild. But what actions will they highlight as their actual leadership?

Even if McCain spins it to his advantage, do you believe it's a bigger advantage then he would have had with several days of solid media attention with which to attack Obama? We heard over and over that the Dems had to use their convention in order to attack McCain, to define him, in voters minds; and by the third and fourth day, that's exactly what they did. Well, when is McCain going to do that? When do they attack? I don't understand the calculus that some seem to have going on here, where a lost opportunity for McCain to attack is somehow a positive for him?

No way. His actions this week are as high-risk as his Palin pick. He can either come off presidential, as you say, or he can come off as useless and in the way; depending on what he can actually show he DID, we'll see which one is the answer. But he loses attack time with only 60 days to go to the election, and I guarantee that's not a good thing for him.

Cycloptichorn

Yeah. I'm not saying it's gonna be a cake walk...



He doesn't really have to do anything, though. He has to look like he's doing something. Or like he'd be a president who would be doing something, in this kind of situation.

Just think back to the post-9/11 phase.... I don't think that it was Bush's actions that made his approval rates skyrocket - it was the appearance of doing something. The announcement that he would hunt down those who were behind this terrible act. That he would get bin Laden, dead or alive. That he would prevent another 9/11. That he wouldn't rest until Terrorism was defeated. (And the fact that people gather behind their leaders in a situation where their country is under attack.... for sure... additional bonus for Bush here... but still.)

And not even the fact that Bush didn't live up to the rhetoric mattered very much - he still got re-elected, three years later.




Yes. It's actions versus words. The Republican candidate who actually sets aside politics and does something vs. the whiny Democrats who complain all the time and promise government assistance, but completely fail to deliver.

Huge advantage.



Really? I must have missed that. But even if true: what would define the Democratic candidate in a worse light than being limited to asking for public support, while the Republican candidate can potentially promise instant relief programmes, with the full backing of a Republican administration?

And hey, McCain can still run negative ads later on....




Only if you think that attacking is necessary, and that it helps McCain. I think that looking Presidential helps him far more than petty bickering about Obama's credentials. In fact, with the buzz generated by the Palin pick, there's an argument to be made that McCain wouldn't even need a convention... and that particularly the old line of attack (no experience) would even hurt McCain now, after the Palin pick...




Oh, absolutely. It's super high risk. But with a Republican President in the White House, he simply has the better cards. He can campaign by saying that this is not the time for campaigning. Obama simply doesn't have that option.




That the rub, though. He can define Obama even without even verbally attacking him. If Obama even appears so much as unable to do anything meaningful in this situation, and McCain manages to project this unto a future Obama presidency, it will be worth far more than any Convention speech, or any attack ad that McCain could launch.

High risk? Yeah, for sure.

As you say, this is the rub; it isn't action versus words, it's the appearance of action. And it's an easy balloon to deflate.

Envision McCain going on about this point in a debate, and Obama asking him:



If McCain can't point to actual actions, he will be ruined by this. And it is trivially easy to point out. Obama is no fool, it won't be difficult to handle this.



You can say that again; let's not forget the last time a major hurricane hit the area -





Cycloptichorn

Never underestimate.... stupidity.... voters. You know.




Hey, did I say it was super high risk, or did I say it was super high risk?




Yes, yes, yes, for sure. You don't have to persuade me. But that's kind of the point, too: things will, even in the case that this turns out to be as catastrophic as Katrina, run more smoothly. (Assumedly. At least that's what is being reported so far.) It's easy to spin this into a success for the Republican administration. Of how Republicans took responsibility, and improved the process.

I don't think that people (and I'm not talking about the 400,000 inhabitants of NO, or of the population of Louisiana in particular, but rather about the millions of Americans who are following these events in the news) would remember how those responsible fucked things up during Katrina - what will stick out is how much better everything went this time....

Obama can't profit from that. McCain can.

(And did I say that this was a high risk strategy?)

(Edit: and did I say that McCain can look Presidential in this, whereas Obama can't?)

Haha, maybe. I was mostly struck by the irony in the term 'cake walk.'

Cycloptichorn

Ha!

Well, it's day one. Looks like the hurricane missed NO for the most part.

It will be interesting to see McCain's reaction today, and if he's actually doing anything. I would note that yesterday he held campaign events with Palin; I think that it's pretty obvious that they aren't just sitting around in a bunker somewhere, but instead trying to gain maximum advantage/sympathy...

Cycloptichorn

You think so?

Sure, but if it's that obvious to me, I doubt that the American people are thinking much different.

Cycloptichorn

It seems they're doing a telethon...with remote videos from the Gov of New Orleans...and newsies... interesting!

Meanwhile, lifted from a Yahoo news piece:
_______________________________
"Life happens," he said.

"An American family," added Salter.

The advisers said Palin told them about the pregnancy during lengthy discussions about her background. At several points during the discussions, McCain's team warned Palin that the scrutiny into her private life would be intense and that there was nothing she could do to prepare for it.

Prominent religious conservatives, many of whom have been lukewarm toward McCain's candidacy, predicted that Palin's daughter's pregnancy would not diminish conservative Christian enthusiasm over the vice presidential hopeful.

"I think it's a very private matter," said Roberta Combs, president of the Christian Coalition of America. "It's a matter that should stay in the family and they have to work through it together. My prayers go out to them."

Added Combs: "We're excited about the governor and think she's going to do well."

Mathew Staver, dean of Liberty University School of Law, said: "We're all sinners."

"We all make mistakes. Certainly, the ideal is not to get pregnant out of wedlock. But she made the right decision after her mistake," he said.

Staver also criticized anyone who would seek to make it a negative campaign issue: "It's absolutely shameful to put her child in the spotlight. She's not running for office. When someone can't face issues, they try to tear down a family."
_____________________________
Obama reputedly said this issue is off limits, and his campaign will fire anyone involved in spreading the gossip about the child.

If he actually did say that - good on him...

But Hillary didn't say it...

why would she?

Because that's who's going to take your girl out.

my girl?