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AMERICAN CONSERVATISM IN 2008 AND BEYOND

 
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Wed 23 Sep, 2009 10:59 am
ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/suppl/empsit.cpseea1.txt
CURRENT EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS
....Total Employed..........Change
...
2007 146,047,000....+1,620,000
2008 145,362,000........-685,000
2009 139,649,000....-5,713,000 (as of August 31)

0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Wed 23 Sep, 2009 11:17 am
@cicerone imposter,
cicerone imposter wrote:

ican doesn't understand the underlying reasons why polls are against the current legislation now being written on health care. Most Americans want reform, but they don't want a health plan that's going to increase the deficit. Most people believe that our government has no control over spending, and most are afraid of the increasing deficit that seems to grow by big numbers as our government approves all spending without any controls.

Cice, you do not understand what I do not understand and what I do understand.

We agree on this:
"Most Americans want reform, but they don't want a health plan that's going to increase the deficit. Most people believe that our government has no control over spending, and most are afraid of the increasing deficit that seems to grow by big numbers as our government approves all spending without any controls."

I would rather we adopt an health care plan that will work rather than one that will not work: that is, I'd rather we adopt a plan that when adopted will allow and enable people to buy that private health insurance they want.

I would rather the federal government exercise the powers explicitly granted it by the Constitution, and not exercise powers not explicitly granted it by the Constitution.


0 Replies
 
ican711nm
 
  -1  
Reply Wed 23 Sep, 2009 11:34 am
WITH REGARD TO OBAMA'S SPEECH TO THE UN THIS MORNING
Quote:

http://etext.library.adelaide.edu.au/o/orwell/george/o79n/
Part III, Chapter II
It is impossible to see reality except by looking through the eyes of the Party. That is the fact that you have got to relearn ... It needs an act of self-destruction, an effort of the will. You must humble yourself before you can become sane.

0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 23 Sep, 2009 12:00 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Robert Gentel wrote:

old europe wrote:
On the other hand, if we're talking about other Rasmussen polls before the last election and outside of election polling, that wouldn't change my objections: if Rasmussen's results outside of election polling are really consistently outside of the mainstream, why then isn't this the case for his election polling - and why are people trying to use his election polling, which is mostly consistent with the mainstream, to show that his other polls are not biased?


I think it's just cherry picking to reach a conclusion they've already decided to reach. I don't think at all that their qualms were with just a subset of polls till the data shows that the election stuff is more accurate than most pollsters.


Election polls are pretty cut and dried. Rasmussen does give you a choice between candidates generally on a 'will vote for' 'might vote for' basis. The closer to the election, the more people's minds will be made up (or they will have already voted early) and the less is subject to subjective emotion. Rasmussen's track record for predicting election results is overall as good as anybody's.

Polls that reflect the public pulse as it were are of course far more subjective and will often be influenced by the degree of displeasure or satisfaction with events in the news the day the poll is taken and there can be a lot of shifting between Rasmussen's somewhat approve and somewhat disapprove categories--less movement between the strongly approve and strongly disapprove which will include more partisan and ideological conviction or really strong feelings about the hot button issues of the day.

Rasmussen is particularly interesting (and so often quoted) because of the frequency that he conducts polls on the hot button issues along with the consistency of the questions asked.

Some seem to want the question to be: "Do you favor health care reform?" and use an affirmative answer as endorsement of the administration's initiatives while others frame their response outside of the administration's proposals.

Some seem to want the question to be: "Do you favor the Administration's plan for health care reform?" and regard a negative result as affirmation of their own opinions about it while others see a negative response as indication that selfish people want no healthcare reform at all.

I haven't seen many, if any, polls asking questions about issues on this thread:

1. Do you want single payer or a free market system?
2. Do you want Congress to enact meaningful tort reform that will help insurance companies reduces premiums?
3. Do you want Congress to relax regulation so that healthcare insurers and providers can better compete across state lines?
4. Do you want the government to require every citizen to have healthcare insurance?
5. Do you want clear, unambiguous, and unmistakable language in the bill to ensure that there will be no government funding of elective abortions, non essential elective medical procedures, etc.?
6. Do you want clear, unambiguous, and unmistakable language in the bill to ensure that there will be no government funding of healthcare for illegals other than that constituting emergency humanitarian necessity?
7. Do you want assurance that a government option will under no circumstances compete with private insurance, will not increase costs, will not increase deficits, and will not become another intractable entitlement?

I suspect a public poll of such questions would be a good eye opener.
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Wed 23 Sep, 2009 12:08 pm
@Foxfyre,
Quote:

I haven't seen many, if any, polls asking questions about issues on this thread:

1. Do you want single payer or a free market system?
2. Do you want Congress to enact meaningful tort reform that will help insurance companies reduces premiums?
3. Do you want Congress to relax regulation so that healthcare insurers and providers can better compete across state lines?
4. Do you want the government to require every citizen to have healthcare insurance?
5. Do you want clear, unambiguous, and unmistakable language in the bill to ensure that there will be no government funding of elective abortions, non essential elective medical procedures, etc.?
6. Do you want clear, unambiguous, and unmistakable language in the bill to ensure that there will be no government funding of healthcare for illegals other than that constituting emergency humanitarian necessity?
7. Do you want assurance that a government option will under no circumstances compete with private insurance, will not increase costs, will not increase deficits, and will not become another intractable entitlement?

I suspect a public poll of such questions would be a good eye opener.


While some of these questions are interesting and neutral, I wonder if you realize how biased others of them are. Several of your questions are clearly designed to produce the answer you wish. And I believe this is exactly the behavior that Ras engages in, so it's not surprising to see this coming from you, Fox.

Cycloptichorn
Foxfyre
 
  0  
Reply Wed 23 Sep, 2009 12:17 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Biased or not, they are all components that go into those approval/disapproval numbers that you so object to in Rasmussen polls. They are all components of what the tea partiers and taxpayer protest marchers are angry about.

Until there is a national debate on these specific issues, we will not--repeat will not--have the approval of a majority of people who will have to live with whatever Congress and the President come up with.

How would you answer each question?
I are fairly sure that my answers on most questions would be quite a bit different, but if we agreed on most, then Obama is in even more trouble than I realized.
old europe
 
  2  
Reply Wed 23 Sep, 2009 12:21 pm
@Robert Gentel,
Robert Gentel wrote:
old europe wrote:
On the other hand, if we're talking about other Rasmussen polls before the last election and outside of election polling, that wouldn't change my objections: if Rasmussen's results outside of election polling are really consistently outside of the mainstream, why then isn't this the case for his election polling - and why are people trying to use his election polling, which is mostly consistent with the mainstream, to show that his other polls are not biased?


I think it's just cherry picking to reach a conclusion they've already decided to reach. I don't think at all that their qualms were with just a subset of polls till the data shows that the election stuff is more accurate than most pollsters.


I really don't recall similar criticism of Rasmussen's election polling as there is of his current opinion polling, and that this criticism only stopped once the election results were in, but I'd be interested in some evidence for that position.

I also agree that only focusing on some opinion polls where Rasmussen's results are, over the course of months, 15 to 20 percentage points outside of the mainstream might constitute cherry picking, but that doesn't necessarily mean that using the accuracy of his election polling (where his results were usually a maximum of 5 percentage points outside of the average trend) to argue that his opinion polling is not skewed is a valid position.
0 Replies
 
Cycloptichorn
 
  2  
Reply Wed 23 Sep, 2009 12:24 pm
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre wrote:

Biased or not, they are all components that go into those approval/disapproval numbers that you so object to in Rasmussen polls. They are all components of what the tea partiers and taxpayer protest marchers are angry about.

Until there is a national debate on these specific issues, we will not--repeat will not--have the approval of a majority of people who will have to live with whatever Congress and the President come up with.


Right now, Obama's approval numbers are at 50% or above across every major pollster, including Rasmussen - though they are the lowest, of course. SO, despite your protests, it seems that Obama does in fact still enjoy approval by the majority. Your claim is not backed up by the data.

Quote:
How would you answer each question?
I are fairly sure that my answers on most questions would be quite a bit different, but if we agreed on most, then Obama is in even more trouble than I realized.


Only 2 or 3 of the questions are valid questions, the rest are just your way of stating your position as a question.

Cycloptichorn
old europe
 
  2  
Reply Wed 23 Sep, 2009 12:31 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:
Several of your questions are clearly designed to produce the answer you wish. And I believe this is exactly the behavior that Ras engages in


I posted this a while ago on a different thread, but it illustrates the point pretty well:

---

Quote:
Also, while just 36 percent believe Obama’s efforts to reform the health system are a good idea, that number increases to 53 percent when respondents were read a paragraph describing Obama’s plans.


http://imgur.com/CVyL9.png

---

A 17-point gap in response to the same question. Pretty amazing.
Foxfyre
 
  0  
Reply Wed 23 Sep, 2009 01:30 pm
@old europe,
And I'm going to guess that not more than maybe one fourth--one fourth might be a stretch--have any clue what IS in that healthcare plan.

In my opinion, if you break it down into the components as I broke it down, the few polls that have been done are conclusive that most Americans do NOT want Obama's healthcare plan after they know what is in it.

That's why the individual components are not being debated or discussed more than superficially by the Administration, Democrats who just want to pass something--anything--well before the next election, and the pure ideologue Obama worshippers.
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 23 Sep, 2009 01:31 pm
@Cycloptichorn,
Cycloptichorn wrote:

Foxfyre wrote:

Biased or not, they are all components that go into those approval/disapproval numbers that you so object to in Rasmussen polls. They are all components of what the tea partiers and taxpayer protest marchers are angry about.

Until there is a national debate on these specific issues, we will not--repeat will not--have the approval of a majority of people who will have to live with whatever Congress and the President come up with.


Right now, Obama's approval numbers are at 50% or above across every major pollster, including Rasmussen - though they are the lowest, of course. SO, despite your protests, it seems that Obama does in fact still enjoy approval by the majority. Your claim is not backed up by the data.

Quote:
How would you answer each question?
I are fairly sure that my answers on most questions would be quite a bit different, but if we agreed on most, then Obama is in even more trouble than I realized.


Only 2 or 3 of the questions are valid questions, the rest are just your way of stating your position as a question.

Cycloptichorn


Intelligent people know the difference between ambiguous sense of approval of a person and a specific issue within a specific plan. Do you?

Approval of Obama himself is NOT approval of everything he says, intends, or proposes to anybody but the kool-ade drinkers. Especially kool-ade drinkers who would say that some of those questions--the ones the kool-ade drinkers don't want to answer--aren't really questions.

You break those questions down as I did and let the people choose how each one should be answered in national healthcare reform, and you come up with reform that nowhere resembles what Obama is proposing.
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 23 Sep, 2009 01:40 pm
If Obama's healthcare plan enjoyed such widespread support as some of you folks want to believe, why would Congress be afraid to hold open hearings and have the various components of it debated, discussed, aired, and commented on by experts as they have done with every other major legislation of this magnitude? Why has every amendment offered by the blue dogs and the GOP members of Congress been rejected that would clear up the language and make what Obama claims is there absolutely specific and unambiguous?

Why would Cyclop say that questions that can be clearly answered yes or no are not really questions?

And going back to Thomas Sowell's questions of some days ago--those that EVERY SINGLE LIBERAL ON THIS THREAD completely ignored, why does this healthcare reform not go into effect until after the next election? And if it won't go into effect until after the next election, what is the terrible urgency that requires its emergency passage right away without having the American people fully understand what is being forced upon them?
0 Replies
 
old europe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 23 Sep, 2009 01:45 pm
@Foxfyre,
Well, you broke the topic down into unproven assumptions. Here:

Quote:
2. Do you want Congress to enact meaningful tort reform that will help insurance companies reduces premiums?


You're essentially stating, as a fact, that tort reform will bring down insurance premiums. It's fine if that's your opinion, but I doubt you'll be able to provide solid evidence for it. ican tried to use Texas as an example, and the data he provided so far shows that insurance premiums actually went up after tort reform has been instituted.

If you want to get answers after people know the extent of cost of malpractice suits, you'd get different results. Here:

Medical malpractice suits account for up to 2% of all health insurance costs.* Do you think that tort reform will bring down health insurance premiums?


* I've taken the number from the article ican linked to in this post.
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 23 Sep, 2009 01:52 pm
@old europe,
old europe wrote:

Well, you broke the topic down into unproven assumptions. Here:

Quote:
2. Do you want Congress to enact meaningful tort reform that will help insurance companies reduces premiums?


You're essentially stating, as a fact, that tort reform will bring down insurance premiums. It's fine if that's your opinion, but I doubt you'll be able to provide solid evidence for it. ican tried to use Texas as an example, and the data he provided so far shows that insurance premiums actually went up after tort reform has been instituted.

If you want to get answers after people know the extent of cost of malpractice suits, you'd get different results. Here:

Medical malpractice suits account for up to 2% of all health insurance costs.* Do you think that tort reform will bring down health insurance premiums?


* I've taken the number from the article ican linked to in this post.


I am stating nothing of the sort. It is an opinion poll. Is that what you do or do not want Congress to do?

How it would be done or whether it is even possible to do are separate questions. The question does, however, address the fact that tort reform is not a part of the current proposed legislation, nor is anybody proposing the legislation allowing any kind of serious debate on that issue.

And, in my opinion, the tea partiers and the taxpayer protesters want that to be part of the debate.

It is possible that a full and open airing of the issue might convince most Americans that tort reform should not be part of the legislation. The fact that it isn't being aired, however, suggests that those proposing the legislation know that the people would want it if it was aired. And they don't want to risk that any more than they want a full airing of any of the other questions on that list.
old europe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 23 Sep, 2009 01:55 pm
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre wrote:
I am stating nothing of the sort. It is an opinion poll. Is that what you do or do not want Congress to do?

Then your question would be Do you want Congress to enact tort reform?

Instead, your question was:

Foxfyre wrote:
2. Do you want Congress to enact meaningful tort reform that will help insurance companies reduces premiums?

What is your basis for stating that "tort reform [...] will help insurance companies reduces[sic] premiums"? Other than your opinion, I mean?
JPB
 
  2  
Reply Wed 23 Sep, 2009 01:58 pm
The NYT has an interesting op-ed piece today on the impact that the health insurance industry might have on the food industry even if the only reform is to require all insurers to cover all applicants who can pay the bill....

Quote:

... As for the insurers, you would think preventing chronic diseases would be good business, but, at least under the current rules, it’s much better business simply to keep patients at risk for chronic disease out of your pool of customers, whether through lifetime caps on coverage or rules against pre-existing conditions or by figuring out ways to toss patients overboard when they become ill.

But these rules may well be about to change " and, when it comes to reforming the American diet and food system, that step alone could be a game changer. Even under the weaker versions of health care reform now on offer, health insurers would be required to take everyone at the same rates, provide a standard level of coverage and keep people on their rolls regardless of their health. Terms like “pre-existing conditions” and “underwriting” would vanish from the health insurance rulebook " and, when they do, the relationship between the health insurance industry and the food industry will undergo a sea change.

The moment these new rules take effect, health insurance companies will promptly discover they have a powerful interest in reducing rates of obesity and chronic diseases linked to diet. A patient with Type 2 diabetes incurs additional health care costs of more than $6,600 a year; over a lifetime, that can come to more than $400,000. Insurers will quickly figure out that every case of Type 2 diabetes they can prevent adds $400,000 to their bottom line. Suddenly, every can of soda or Happy Meal or chicken nugget on a school lunch menu will look like a threat to future profits.
...

All of which suggests that passing a health care reform bill, no matter how ambitious, is only the first step in solving our health care crisis. To keep from bankrupting ourselves, we will then have to get to work on improving our health " which means going to work on the American way of eating.

But even if we get a health care bill that does little more than require insurers to cover everyone on the same basis, it could put us on that course.

For it will force the industry, and the government, to take a good hard look at the elephant in the room and galvanize a movement to slim it down. more
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 23 Sep, 2009 01:58 pm
@old europe,
old europe wrote:

Foxfyre wrote:
I am stating nothing of the sort. It is an opinion poll. Is that what you do or do not want Congress to do?


Then your question would be Do you want Congress to enact tort reform?

Instead, your question was:

Foxfyre wrote:
2. Do you want Congress to enact meaningful tort reform that will help insurance companies reduces premiums?


What is your basis for stating that "tort reform that will help insurance companies reduces[sic] premiums"?


Focus OE. I made no such statement. The question asks only if that is what the people want Congress to do. I think, based on listening closely to what the tea partiers and taxpayer protesters are saying, that is precisely what many, if not most, of the more informed people want Congress to do. If it is an impossibility, then surely the people smart enought to write the biggest piece of legislation ever to be written in this country should be smart enough to make a valid case for why tort reform should not be a part of it.

old europe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 23 Sep, 2009 02:01 pm
@Foxfyre,
Foxfyre wrote:
old europe wrote:
Foxfyre wrote:
I am stating nothing of the sort. It is an opinion poll. Is that what you do or do not want Congress to do?


Then your question would be Do you want Congress to enact tort reform?

Instead, your question was:

Foxfyre wrote:
2. Do you want Congress to enact meaningful tort reform that will help insurance companies reduces premiums?


What is your basis for stating that "tort reform that will help insurance companies reduces[sic] premiums"?


Focus OE. I made no such statement. The question asks only if that is what the people want Congress to do.


No. No, it doesn't. Really.

Asking Do you want Congress to enact tort reform? only asks if that is what the people want Congress to do.

Your question, on the other hand, includes an unproven claim that tort reform that will help insurance companies reduce premiums. Here, let me use some color:

Foxfyre wrote:
2. Do you want Congress to enact meaningful tort reform that will help insurance companies reduces premiums?
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 23 Sep, 2009 02:02 pm
@JPB,
Wouldn't it be a wonderful utopia if we gave the government power to make our lives 100% safe? 100% equal with everybody else? 100% without risk?

Of course it means that we give government 100% power to control every aspect of our lives from the bedroom to the kitchen, from birth to the grave.

Would it be worth it?
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Wed 23 Sep, 2009 02:07 pm
@old europe,
old europe wrote:

Foxfyre wrote:
old europe wrote:
Foxfyre wrote:
I am stating nothing of the sort. It is an opinion poll. Is that what you do or do not want Congress to do?


Then your question would be Do you want Congress to enact tort reform?

Instead, your question was:

Foxfyre wrote:
2. Do you want Congress to enact meaningful tort reform that will help insurance companies reduces premiums?


What is your basis for stating that "tort reform that will help insurance companies reduces[sic] premiums"?


Focus OE. I made no such statement. The question asks only if that is what the people want Congress to do.


No. No, it doesn't. Really.

Asking Do you want Congress to enact tort reform? only asks if that is what the people want Congress to do

Your question, on the other hand, includes an unproven claim that tort reform that will help insurance companies reduce premiums. Here, let me use some color:

Foxfyre wrote:
2. Do you want Congress to enact meaningful tort reform that will help insurance companies reduces premiums?



The question asks people if they want tort reform with the qualification of what they would expect tort reform to accomplish.

Tort reform, without such qualification, is as ambiguous and meaningless as healthcare reform is without describing specifically what is intended by such reform.

If Obama can say that he wants to give every citizen healthcare insurance without increasing costs or the deficit or reducing anybody's benefits, or disrupting anybody's lives in any way, then the taxpayers have the same degree of authority to say that they want tort reform of a kind that will reduce insurance premiums.

It is a valid question of a valid want and is a fair question to ask. To not ask it is insulting to those who believe that tort reform would help and should be part of the overall package. If they are wrong, convince them, but don't think you'll convince them by not allowing them to ask the question.


 

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