@Robert Gentel,
Robert Gentel wrote:
old europe wrote:On the other hand, if we're talking about other Rasmussen polls before the last election and outside of election polling, that wouldn't change my objections: if Rasmussen's results outside of election polling are really consistently outside of the mainstream, why then isn't this the case for his election polling - and why are people trying to use his election polling, which is mostly consistent with the mainstream, to show that his other polls are not biased?
I think it's just cherry picking to reach a conclusion they've already decided to reach. I don't think at all that their qualms were with just a subset of polls till the data shows that the election stuff is more accurate than most pollsters.
Election polls are pretty cut and dried. Rasmussen does give you a choice between candidates generally on a 'will vote for' 'might vote for' basis. The closer to the election, the more people's minds will be made up (or they will have already voted early) and the less is subject to subjective emotion. Rasmussen's track record for predicting election results is overall as good as anybody's.
Polls that reflect the public pulse as it were are of course far more subjective and will often be influenced by the degree of displeasure or satisfaction with events in the news the day the poll is taken and there can be a lot of shifting between Rasmussen's somewhat approve and somewhat disapprove categories--less movement between the strongly approve and strongly disapprove which will include more partisan and ideological conviction or really strong feelings about the hot button issues of the day.
Rasmussen is particularly interesting (and so often quoted) because of the frequency that he conducts polls on the hot button issues along with the consistency of the questions asked.
Some seem to want the question to be: "Do you favor health care reform?" and use an affirmative answer as endorsement of the administration's initiatives while others frame their response outside of the administration's proposals.
Some seem to want the question to be: "Do you favor the Administration's plan for health care reform?" and regard a negative result as affirmation of their own opinions about it while others see a negative response as indication that selfish people want no healthcare reform at all.
I haven't seen many, if any, polls asking questions about issues on this thread:
1. Do you want single payer or a free market system?
2. Do you want Congress to enact meaningful tort reform that will help insurance companies reduces premiums?
3. Do you want Congress to relax regulation so that healthcare insurers and providers can better compete across state lines?
4. Do you want the government to require every citizen to have healthcare insurance?
5. Do you want clear, unambiguous, and unmistakable language in the bill to ensure that there will be no government funding of elective abortions, non essential elective medical procedures, etc.?
6. Do you want clear, unambiguous, and unmistakable language in the bill to ensure that there will be no government funding of healthcare for illegals other than that constituting emergency humanitarian necessity?
7. Do you want assurance that a government option will under no circumstances compete with private insurance, will not increase costs, will not increase deficits, and will not become another intractable entitlement?
I suspect a public poll of such questions would be a good eye opener.