AMERICAN CONSERVATISM IN 2008 AND BEYOND

To really understand this dynamic, you need to read my friend Dave Weigel’s story on Rasmussen for The Washington Independent. Dave doesn’t editorialize in his reporting, but if you read between the lines I think a pretty clear picture emerges. Rasmussen is a pretty good pollster whose results are within the range of accuracy one wants from a pollster. But polling is a crowded business. And Rasmussen doesn’t also have a daily newspaper or a television network to tout his results. His business, however, requires attention. So how does he get that attention? Well in part he gets it with issue polling that, while basically methodologically sound, has question-wording that’s designed to lead to conservative-friendly results.

Then the results come out and conservatives tout the results as vindicating their position. It’s free PR for Rasmussen, it’s a morale booster and message-driver for the right. And because the basic horserace polling is accurate enough, these kind of shenanigans don’t get Rasmussen dismissed as a surveyor.

And I don’t really think he should be dismissed. But I think we need to understand his “issue” polling as more like message testing than like normal public opinion research. What we’re learning from his result isn’t that there’s a “nation of Santellis” out there outraged about Obama’s plan. We’re learning that support for the plan isn’t so rock-solid as to be immune to leading questions or negative characterizations.

Robert Gentel wrote:

ican711nm wrote:

Rasmussen has claimed he is a Democrat!

I'd like to see that, especially given that he's a Republican.

I would like to have evidence that he is a Republican. I have exhausted all the places I know to look to find what party Scott Rasmussen is affiliated with but so far zilch. I suspect he is careful not to register with a specific party but I don't know. I do know that he doesn't contribute to any political parties or politicians.

John Zogby is an admitted Democrat, but I haven't detected a great deal of bias in his polls either. He is wrong more often than Rasmussen is though.

Scott Rasmussen is well aware of how Republicans use his polling to make their arguments. “Republicans right now are citing our polls more than Democrats because it’s in their interest to do so,” he said on Monday. “I would not consider myself a political conservative " that implies an alignment with Washington politics that I don’t think I have.”

But in the early days of his polling firm, when it was named Rasmussen Research, Rasmussen balanced a cold analysis of politics and consumer opinion with advocacy for some conservative views. For a short time around the 2000 elections he wrote a column for WorldNetDaily, once arguing that President Bill Clinton had “ratified the Reagan Revolution” by declaring the end of big government in Clinton’s 1996 State of the Union speech. “From that moment forward,” wrote Rasmussen, “both Republicans and Democrats began to fight over their policy differences within the political framework created by America’s voters and articulated by President Reagan.”

In other columns, and in a 2001 company-published book titled A Better Deal! Social Security Choice, Rasmussen made the case for privatizing the nation’s oldest entitlement program. “In fact, 46 percent of American adults say that relying on the government is riskier than letting workers invest for their own retirement,” wrote Rasmussen in a Jan. 10, 2001 column arguing that incoming President Bush should push for private accounts. “Just 36 percent say letting workers invest is more risky, while 18 percent are not sure.” In the book " not a huge seller, but promoted by Rasmussen at an August appearance at the libertarian Cato Institute " the pollster argued that “giving workers more control over their ‘contributions’ will put the ‘Security’ back in Social Security.”

Since then, Rasmussen’s business has boomed, aided in no small part by those “newspaper” questions that are blasted out to reporters and frequently buck up the Republican spin of the week. “Every pollster wants to promote his own research,” said Brent Goldrick. “It makes sense for Rasmussen to promote questions that are more newsworthy.”

That was the take of Phil Kerpen, the policy director at Americans for Prosperity, a political advocacy group that collected more than 400,000 signatures of opposition to the stimulus. “He’s cited more frequently than other pollsters because he does more than anybody else,” said Kerpen. “His numbers are at least as accurate as anyone else’s. I think it was helpful to us when it looked like there was a big shift in public opinion against the stimulus. We definitely used it to give our activists some more encouragement.”

Scott Rasmussen couldn’t say whether his polls played a key role in the stimulus debate " after all, the bill passed. “But there have been times that our polling had an impact,” he said on Monday. “During the immigration debate, I think our polling " which showed the public heavily against the Senate compromise " was part of the reason that the compromise fell apart. The Senate acceded to public opinion. We’re simply reporting on what the public wants.”

“I would not consider myself a political conservative " that implies an alignment with Washington politics that I don’t think I have.”

Robert, do you believe there is a difference between polling for specific races (ie, who are you going to vote for in xx race?) and polling of memes, concepts, and job approval?

Both of your links to 538 refer to the first, whereas the discussion we were having was about the second. I think that you are making a major error by confusing the two, as if they were the same thing.

There is a great deal of thought that Rasmussen tailors it's questions in their non-horserace polls to specifically favor Republican positions, and specifically to generate news and discussion in the Conservative sphere.

ps, I can't figure out how to embed links anymore! Can you give me the quick refresher? kthnxbai

Quote:

Both of your links to 538 refer to the first, whereas the discussion we were having was about the second. I think that you are making a major error by confusing the two, as if they were the same thing.

I don't think they are the same thing, but I think you are excluding the horse races from the comparison between pollsters just because that doesn't show bias on the part of Rasmussen. That looks a lot more like selection bias on your part. First you claim Rasmussen is a biased pollster that isn't as accurate as others. I bring a study showing greater accuracy than other pollsters. Now it's just a subset of his polls that aren't accurate and are biased.

But that's exactly the point, isn't it? Rasmussen's election polling, when compared to other pollsters, doesn't show this extent of "bias" (or whatever you want to call it) we see in the current approval polls.

People can come to whatever conclusion they want, regarding the accuracy of Rasmussen opinion polls, or the ideological and financial biases which drive Scott Rasmussen to create the polls he does.

I can't provide evidence, because to the best of my knowledge, a study has not been done comparing the wording of his polls to other polls on the same subject.

old europe wrote:

But that's exactly the point, isn't it? Rasmussen's election polling, when compared to other pollsters, doesn't show this extent of "bias" (or whatever you want to call it) we see in the current approval polls.

That may be your point but Cyclo said that they are "notorious for their Republican/Conservative bias" and I've been hearing this for years from liberals without any real evidence. This certainly is not just cropping up in the "current approval polls" and the argument is that they can't be trusted due to a bias towards Republicans.

The polls do tend to lean further to the right than others but that doesn't mean the methodology is wrong. Don't take my word for it, ask the liberal poll geek Nate Silver:

That much is clear, but I like to see evidence for such sweeping conclusions. Anyone really can say anything they want,

Quote:

I can't provide evidence, because to the best of my knowledge, a study has not been done comparing the wording of his polls to other polls on the same subject.

I guess strength of conviction will have to suffice then. But I generally recommend more skepticism in the absence of evidence than merely lamenting that the evidence just doesn't yet exist.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/current_events/healthcare/september_2009/health_care_reform
Fifty-six percent (56%) of voters nationwide now oppose the health care reform proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. That’s the highest level of opposition yet measured and includes 44% who are Strongly Opposed.

Just 43% now favor the proposal, including 24% who Strongly Favor it.

Fifty-six percent (56%) of voters nationwide now oppose the health care reform proposed by President Obama and congressional Democrats. That’s the highest level of opposition yet measured and includes 44% who are Strongly Opposed.

Just 43% now favor the proposal, including 24% who Strongly Favor it.

On the other hand, if we're talking about other Rasmussen polls before the last election and outside of election polling, that wouldn't change my objections: if Rasmussen's results outside of election polling are really consistently outside of the mainstream, why then isn't this the case for his election polling - and why are people trying to use his election polling, which is mostly consistent with the mainstream, to show that his other polls are not biased?

old europe wrote:

On the other hand, if we're talking about other Rasmussen polls before the last election and outside of election polling, that wouldn't change my objections: if Rasmussen's results outside of election polling are really consistently outside of the mainstream, why then isn't this the case for his election polling - and why are people trying to use his election polling, which is mostly consistent with the mainstream, to show that his other polls are not biased?

I think it's just cherry picking to reach a conclusion they've already decided to reach. I don't think at all that their qualms were with just a subset of polls till the data shows that the election stuff is more accurate than most pollsters.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/obama_approval_index_month_by_month
While opposition to the President’s proposed health care reform is partly responsible for the declining approval ratings, the numbers reflect a broader level of frustration. Last fall, during the Bush Administration, voters overwhelmingly opposed the bailout plans for banks but the bailout went ahead. Earlier this year, voters overwhelmingly opposed the federal takeover of General Motors and Chrysler, but they went ahead as well. Two-thirds of American voters (64%) support a law requiring the federal government to sell its interest in GM within one year.

Realistically, no one can tell what will happen next. In the short-term, resolution of the health care legislation may have a significant impact on the President’s ratings. Looking further ahead, the economy and federal deficit numbers are likely to set the tone heading into the mid-term elections. Forty percent (40%) of voters see reducing the deficit as the top priority while 21% say health care is number one.

2009 Strongly....Strongly........Approval.....Total..........Total
.....Approve....Disapprove.......Index.....Approve....Disapprove
Jan.........43.............20..................23.............62..............34
Feb.........39.............25..................14.............59..............39
Mar.........37.............30..................07.............57..............42
Apr.........35.............31..................04.............55..............44
May.........35.............29..................06.............57..............42
Jun.........34.............32..................02.............54..............45
Jul.........30.............37..................-7.............50..............49
Aug.....30.........39................-9..........49...........50