Not for a while yet Gautam,
Kevin Toolis, writing in today's New Statesman
Quote:In classic counter-insurgency warfare terms, the critical moment has passed. The "Baghdad bounce", the post-liberation honeymoon period, has faded and the nascent US-sponsored Iraqi institutions have failed to gain legitimacy. In the coming months, the fractious coalition of Iraqi interests on the US-controlled governing council will unravel under the sustained pressure of resistance attacks and harsh US/UK counter measures. The American house in Iraq, like that of the British in Ulster, is built on sand. And there will be British squaddies in Basra long after Tony Blair has fallen from power.
I fear Toolis is right, the critical moment has passed. The opportunity of building a new pro western democratic Iraq is lost. (If it ever existed! I never bought the WMD bullshit, but I did think there was an opportunity, despite the ugly way it was done, to build a better Iraq. Have I been suckered into buying that one, like so many bought into WMD?). Perhaps there was never a plan to build a new Iraq. Perhaps the military/political leaders of this adventure were not so dumb after all. Suppose they looked at the hotch potch of religious and tribal affilliations in Iraq and said "no way, lets just secure the bits we are really interested in and let the rest of the country sort itself out. While they're busy killing each other it dilutes the effectiveness of opposition to us. At the same time anarchy in Iraq provides an excuse for a continued presence under the pretext of maintaining security".
It certainly looks like its working out that way. What do the Americans actually hold in Iraq? A few enclaves in the cities, individual buildings, hotels, government offices. I'm willing to bet the Ministry of Oil in Baghdad is pretty secure. Oh and the oil fields themselves, forgot about them. Something tells me there is a pretty tight security cordon around all the major oil fields. Anyone know any better?