The Republican nominee will be...

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Huckabee likely will get about a third of the GOP primary vote- mainly from evangelicals (assuming his insane immigration policies don't scare them away).

McCain likely won't go anywhere after New Hampshire. He is not a legitimate Republican and he won't get much support in the closed primaries.

Tancredo is already out, Hunter will soon follow and Paul is a fruitcake whom the media is keeping around for comedy relief but he should be good to siphon off maybe 5-10% of the legitimate Republican vote- enough to make things interesting.

This leaves Giuliani and Romney- neither of which will be genuinely popular in the South (apart from maybe the Yankee transplants that live south of Orlando), but if you are not an evangelical these two are you only viable options.

The nominee will depend on how evenly Giuliani and Romney split the remaining 55-60% of the vote. It is possible for one of them to win a majority of the convention delegates by winning an overwhelming proportion of this vote. But I would venture that the split will be more or less even.

This will leave Huckabee, Giuliani and Romney each with roughly 1/3 of the delegates- maybe with Huckabee having a slight lead. So unless Giuliani and Romney make nice and agree to share the ticket, the nominee may likely be whichever one of them gives the #2 spot to Huckabee.

Or after the 2nd or 3rd ballot a candidate that didn't go through the primaries will come in from the outside.

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Ron paul

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McCain will win... simply because everyone else stinks.

Romney is the John Kerry of the Republicans... he has taken both sides of just about every issue. Actually we Democrats would love to run against him, but everyone who pays attention will know he is a phony.

Giulliani has the same problems that McCain has (i.e. he doesn't tow the party line on some issues)-- but Giulliani moreso. McCain gets beaten up by conservatives for immigration, but Giulliani also has abortion and gay rights... plus his ugly family life. Giulliani has little chance.

Huckabee also is being screwed by immigration hardliners (same as McCain). Huckabees problem is that he is goofy. He will go away soon.

Ron Paul is a nut. The good news is that he is to nutty even for Republicans.

I think it will boil down to McCain or Romney... but Romney will be hurt by his flip-flops and by inherent prejudice against Mormonism among his core voters.

So I predict McCain wins by default-- the moderates will support him with the right wing vote split between Huckabee and Romney.

The right wing is rumbling they will run a third party "true conservative" in the general election. Please don't throw us in that brier patch.

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I beg to agree to disagree with you sir.
Let us watch the whims and fantacies of the voters.

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Check out this thread on Ron Paul

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I'll fast forward; McCain will be elected President. I'm trying to see who's standing behind him as Vice President; the sun's in my eyes, but it sort of looks like Giuliani.

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Foofie wrote:

I'll fast forward; McCain will be elected President. I'm trying to see who's standing behind him as Vice President; the sun's in my eyes, but it sort of looks like Giuliani.

If this prediction comes true, I will run away to Peru with Gus and we will start a lama farm.

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Green Witch wrote:

Foofie wrote:
I'll fast forward; McCain will be elected President. I'm trying to see who's standing behind him as Vice President; the sun's in my eyes, but it sort of looks like Giuliani.

If this prediction comes true, I will run away to Peru with Gus and we will start a lama farm.

Don't worry about McCain. Once the states where only Republicans can vote in Republican primaries start voting, McCain will be toast.

McCain isn't a Republican. As Glen Beck said on his show last night just look as the laws that McCain has been associated with- McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy, McCain-anythng.

The man is far more comfortable in the company of liberals so he must be a liberal and thus won't win the Republican Party's presidential nomination.

BTW: Ever wonder what McCain keeps in his cheek pouches? He looks like Snowball, that demented hamster in the Pinky and the Brain cartoons.

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flaja wrote:

Don't worry about McCain. Once the states where only Republicans can vote in Republican primaries start voting, McCain will be toast...

BTW: Ever wonder what McCain keeps in his cheek pouches? He looks like Snowball, that demented hamster in the Pinkie and the Brain cartoons.

I'm not "worried" - I just don't see either McCain or Giuliani lasting long. I respect McCain, this country would not be in the state of disgrace it's in today if he was elected back in 2000. We would have 3,000 more living soliders and 30,000 less wounded.

I find it sadly amusing that you call McCain a hamster when we have this in the oval office:

http://z.about.com/d/politicalhumor/1/0/l/7/bush_chimp.jpg

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flaja wrote:

Green Witch wrote:
Foofie wrote:
I'll fast forward; McCain will be elected President. I'm trying to see who's standing behind him as Vice President; the sun's in my eyes, but it sort of looks like Giuliani.

If this prediction comes true, I will run away to Peru with Gus and we will start a lama farm.

Don't worry about McCain. Once the states where only Republicans can vote in Republican primaries start voting, McCain will be toast.

McCain isn't a Republican. As Glen Beck said on his show last night just look as the laws that McCain has been associated with- McCain-Feingold, McCain-Kennedy, McCain-anythng.

The man is far more comfortable in the company of liberals so he must be a liberal and thus won't win the Republican Party's presidential nomination.

BTW: Ever wonder what McCain keeps in his cheek pouches? He looks like Snowball, that demented hamster in the Pinky and the Brain cartoons.

Then the Republian primary voters will cost the republicans the election this year. McCain is the only one that has a chance at swinging over enough independent voters to secure a Republican win.

I want McCain to win, I think our country does best when there are opposing parties leading our 3 branches of government (and there's little chance that either the house or the senate will go back to republicans in 2006)

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Green Witch wrote:

Foofie wrote:
I'll fast forward; McCain will be elected President. I'm trying to see who's standing behind him as Vice President; the sun's in my eyes, but it sort of looks like Giuliani.

If this prediction comes true, I will run away to Peru with Gus and we will start a lama farm.

Take me with you, Green Witch!
This would be a sad day in this country if a 71 (72 by then) year old man
is running a supposedly progressive, innovative country. Confused

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CalamityJane wrote:

Green Witch wrote:
Foofie wrote:
I'll fast forward; McCain will be elected President. I'm trying to see who's standing behind him as Vice President; the sun's in my eyes, but it sort of looks like Giuliani.

If this prediction comes true, I will run away to Peru with Gus and we will start a lama farm.

Take me with you, Green Witch!
This would be a sad day in this country if a 71 (72 by then) year old man
is running a supposedly progressive, innovative country.

We'd be fine with a progressive congress and a moderate executive. We may be better than fine.

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Yeah, but only after Strom Thurmond had died. Wink

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Reagan did just fine, CJ.

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Quote:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/01/08/schneider-bush-has-clear-effect/

It is so weird that the anti-war republicans (I know there must be some since more than half of Americans are against the war now) vote for McCain and he has been for the war and don't even mind if we are there for a thousand years. Americans are weird.

Do people think McCain is just saying one thing but when it comes to him actually being president he will do another?

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maporsche wrote:

Then the Republian primary voters will cost the republicans the election this year. McCain is the only one that has a chance at swinging over enough independent voters to secure a Republican win.

So in order to not put a Democrat in the White House we have to put a Democrat in the White House?

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revel wrote:

Do people think McCain is just saying one thing but when it comes to him actually being president he will do another?

Haven't they all?

But what I really don't get is that Snowball McCain has been in D.C. for 25 years. How can he be an agent for change? If Washington is broke, doesn't Snowball share the blame?

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RON PAUL 2008...........ALL THE WAY

EVERYONE NEEDS TO HEAR WHAT THIS GUY HAS TO SAY

HE CONVERTED ME!!

SERIOUSLY LISTEN TO WHAT HE SAYS

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CalamityJane wrote:

Green Witch wrote:
Foofie wrote:
I'll fast forward; McCain will be elected President. I'm trying to see who's standing behind him as Vice President; the sun's in my eyes, but it sort of looks like Giuliani.

If this prediction comes true, I will run away to Peru with Gus and we will start a lama farm.

Take me with you, Green Witch!
This would be a sad day in this country if a 71 (72 by then) year old man
is running a supposedly progressive, innovative country.

Ooooh...Agism rears its nasty head.

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stevewonder wrote:

RON PAUL 2008...........ALL THE WAY

EVERYONE NEEDS TO HEAR WHAT THIS GUY HAS TO SAY

HE CONVERTED ME!!

SERIOUSLY LISTEN TO WHAT HE SAYS

If he said anything that brilliant...you wouldn't have to type in all caps.

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The Republican nominee will be...

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