Global Warming?

An increase in extreme weather has nothing to do with our ability to FORECAST extreme weather. Just because we do a bad job at forecasting these storms doesn't mean that the quantity of actual storms is not increasing.

Has there been a rise in hurricanes in the last 50 years? 100?

maporsche wrote:

An increase in extreme weather has nothing to do with our ability to FORECAST extreme weather. Just because we do a bad job at forecasting these storms doesn't mean that the quantity of actual storms is not increasing.

I'm not talking about our ability to make forecasts for extreme weather. I am talking about forecasting the frequency and severity of extreme weather. Global warmongers have tried to issue dire forecasts in this regard, but such forecasts are impossible because we don't know what the frequency of extreme weather has been in the past.

Quote:

Has there been a rise in hurricanes in the last 50 years? 100?

We don't know what the frequency of hurricanes was 50 or 100 years ago, so whether or not the frequency has risen since them is impossible to know.

The irony is that the acolytes of Climate Change are the very same people who would rather die than subscribe to the old and decrepit orthodoxy of western values, judeo-christian principles, or righteous nationalism.

Finn dAbuzz wrote:

The irony is that the acolytes of Climate Change are the very same people who would rather die than subscribe to the old and decrepit orthodoxy of western values, judeo-christian principles, or righteous nationalism.

Finn - I believe you exactly defined the situation. My congratulations to you.

The Global Warming hysteria is a religion. And just as Christians who converted from Paganism to Christianity hated Paganism, so do many of the new converts to the religion of Global Warming hate Christianity.

The Global Warming hysteria is a religion. And just as Christians who converted from Paganism to Christianity hated Paganism, so do many of the new converts to the religion of Global Warming hate Christianity.

flaja wrote:

maporsche wrote:

An increase in extreme weather has nothing to do with our ability to FORECAST extreme weather. Just because we do a bad job at forecasting these storms doesn't mean that the quantity of actual storms is not increasing.

I'm not talking about our ability to make forecasts for extreme weather. I am talking about forecasting the frequency and severity of extreme weather. Global warmongers have tried to issue dire forecasts in this regard, but such forecasts are impossible because we don't know what the frequency of extreme weather has been in the past.

Quote:

Has there been a rise in hurricanes in the last 50 years? 100?

We don't know what the frequency of hurricanes was 50 or 100 years ago, so whether or not the frequency has risen since them is impossible to know.

Well, it doesn't look like the number of storms is increasing (at least not predictably).

National Geograpic reported this as fact over 2 years ago (and I doubt they were the first). What the claim is that the INTENSITY of the storms has been increasing with GW.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/08/0804_050804_hurricanewarming.html

Jim wrote:

The Global Warming hysteria is a religion. And just as Christians who converted from Paganism to Christianity hated Paganism, so do many of the new converts to the religion of Global Warming hate Christianity.

Well, the strongest 'followers' of it are here .... the Evangelical Church(es) of Germany, a bit less the Catholic.

But since I know that most of you deny that they are Christians ...

maporsche wrote:

flaja wrote:

maporsche wrote:

An increase in extreme weather has nothing to do with our ability to FORECAST extreme weather. Just because we do a bad job at forecasting these storms doesn't mean that the quantity of actual storms is not increasing.

I'm not talking about our ability to make forecasts for extreme weather. I am talking about forecasting the frequency and severity of extreme weather. Global warmongers have tried to issue dire forecasts in this regard, but such forecasts are impossible because we don't know what the frequency of extreme weather has been in the past.

Quote:

Has there been a rise in hurricanes in the last 50 years? 100?

We don't know what the frequency of hurricanes was 50 or 100 years ago, so whether or not the frequency has risen since them is impossible to know.

Well, it doesn't look like the number of storms is increasing (at least not predictably).

National Geograpic reported this as fact over 2 years ago (and I doubt they were the first). What the claim is that the INTENSITY of the storms has been increasing with GW.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/08/0804_050804_hurricanewarming.html

http://www.pewclimate.org/hurricanes.cfm#change

"Is global warming changing the intensity or frequency of hurricanes?

"Intensity: According to the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4), it is ?'more likely than not' (better than even odds) that there is a human contribution to the observed trend of hurricane intensification since the 1970s. In the future, ?'it is likely [better than 2 to 1 odds] that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical [sea surface temperatures].'
Frequency: According to the IPCC-AR4, on a global scale, ?'[t]here is no clear trend in the annual numbers [i.e. frequency] of tropical cyclones.' As discussed above, however, the frequency of tropical storms has increased dramatically in the North Atlantic. Reasons for this increase are currently subject to intense debate among climate scientists. At least two recent peer-reviewed scientific studies indicate a significant statistical link between the increased frequency and global warming, but research to identify a mechanism explaining this link is ongoing."

"Is global warming generating other types of severe weather?

"Global temperature has increased and precipitation patterns have changed over the 20th century as a result of human-induced global warming, resulting in some increases in extremes of temperature and precipitation. According to the IPCC-AR4, ?'ncreases in the amount of precipitation are very likely [better than 9 to 1 odds] in high-latitudes, while decreases are likely [better than 2 to 1 odds] in most subtropical land regions,' and ?'t is very likely [at least 9 to 1 odds] that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent.'"

Your churches don't have a good track record. After all Catholics and Lutherans supported the Nazis in large numbers.

Walter Hinteler wrote:

Jim wrote:

The Global Warming hysteria is a religion. And just as Christians who converted from Paganism to Christianity hated Paganism, so do many of the new converts to the religion of Global Warming hate Christianity.

Well, the strongest 'followers' of it are here .... the Evangelical Church(es) of Germany, a bit less the Catholic.

But since I know that most of you deny that they are Christians ...

Your churches don't have a good track record. After all Catholics and Lutherans supported the Nazis in large numbers.

Thank you, but prepare yourself Jim for the slings and arrows of outrageous a-holes.

flaja wrote:

maporsche wrote:

flaja wrote:

maporsche wrote:

An increase in extreme weather has nothing to do with our ability to FORECAST extreme weather. Just because we do a bad job at forecasting these storms doesn't mean that the quantity of actual storms is not increasing.

I'm not talking about our ability to make forecasts for extreme weather. I am talking about forecasting the frequency and severity of extreme weather. Global warmongers have tried to issue dire forecasts in this regard, but such forecasts are impossible because we don't know what the frequency of extreme weather has been in the past.

Quote:

Has there been a rise in hurricanes in the last 50 years? 100?

We don't know what the frequency of hurricanes was 50 or 100 years ago, so whether or not the frequency has risen since them is impossible to know.

Well, it doesn't look like the number of storms is increasing (at least not predictably).

National Geograpic reported this as fact over 2 years ago (and I doubt they were the first). What the claim is that the INTENSITY of the storms has been increasing with GW.

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2005/08/0804_050804_hurricanewarming.html

http://www.pewclimate.org/hurricanes.cfm#change

"Is global warming changing the intensity or frequency of hurricanes?

"Intensity: According to the 2007 Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC-AR4), it is ?'more likely than not' (better than even odds) that there is a human contribution to the observed trend of hurricane intensification since the 1970s. In the future, ?'it is likely [better than 2 to 1 odds] that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical [sea surface temperatures].'
Frequency: According to the IPCC-AR4, on a global scale, ?'[t]here is no clear trend in the annual numbers [i.e. frequency] of tropical cyclones.' As discussed above, however, the frequency of tropical storms has increased dramatically in the North Atlantic. Reasons for this increase are currently subject to intense debate among climate scientists. At least two recent peer-reviewed scientific studies indicate a significant statistical link between the increased frequency and global warming, but research to identify a mechanism explaining this link is ongoing."

"Is global warming generating other types of severe weather?

"Global temperature has increased and precipitation patterns have changed over the 20th century as a result of human-induced global warming, resulting in some increases in extremes of temperature and precipitation. According to the IPCC-AR4, ?'ncreases in the amount of precipitation are very likely [better than 9 to 1 odds] in high-latitudes, while decreases are likely [better than 2 to 1 odds] in most subtropical land regions,' and ?'t is very likely [at least 9 to 1 odds] that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent.'"

That's pretty much what my post said.


So why are we arguing about the ability to predict the FREQUENCY of hurricanes in a GW thread....since no one is claiming that GW increases the frequency of hurricanes? Seems pretty retarded doesn't it.

flaja wrote:

Your churches don't have a good track record. After all Catholics and Lutherans supported the Nazis in large numbers.

I don't know that any major religion has a good track record. After all, Protestants and Evangelicals are still supporting President Bush in large numbers, Hindus and Muslims are still committing atrocities in India, etc. But back to Global Warming, we don't really have a basis for discussion. Several people have presented websites of respected research organizations saying the Earth is warming. You've refused to accept any of them. You've referenced another data source, but the information is apparently not available online for review. If we can't even agree that the globe is warming, we don't even have enough common ground for a debate on the causes and whether those are man-made.

flaja wrote:

Walter Hinteler wrote:

Jim wrote:

The Global Warming hysteria is a religion. And just as Christians who converted from Paganism to Christianity hated Paganism, so do many of the new converts to the religion of Global Warming hate Christianity.

Well, the strongest 'followers' of it are here .... the Evangelical Church(es) of Germany, a bit less the Catholic.

But since I know that most of you deny that they are Christians ...

Your churches don't have a good track record. After all Catholics and Lutherans supported the Nazis in large numbers.

And a lot of males and females - both genders, who now are trying to act against Global Warming.

(You are a little but bad aššhole, flaja: the failed assassination on Hitler's life in 1943 for instance was organised by members of the Catholic and the [Evangelical] Confessing Church, some tenthousand Catholics and Evangelicals were imprisoned in the KZs, thousands died there.)

Because we don't know what the past frequency has been. Thus we cannot predict whether that frequency will increase or decrease for one reason or another. But global warmongers have forecast that the frequency of hurricanes will go up because of global warming.

flaja wrote:

Because we don't know what the past frequency has been. Thus we cannot predict whether that frequency will increase or decrease for one reason or another. But global warmongers have forecast that the frequency of hurricanes will go up because of global warming.

No kidding flaja! I agree with this point.

What I'm asking is WHERE do "global warmongers" say that the frequency of hurricanes will go up because of GW?

What I'm asking is WHERE do "global warmongers" say that the frequency of hurricanes will go up because of GW?