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Global Warming?

 
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Dec, 2007 08:54 am
Re: Global Warming?
old europe wrote:
flaja wrote:
As a scientist I am talking about the satellite and balloon temperature readings as a group of individual facts/statistics, which requires plural use according to 2. above.


You're so cute and cuddly, flaja. Unbelievable.

So you're a scientist?

Of course he is a scientist. Scientists always get their data from books written by lawyers and published by the Heritage foundation. How else are you going to get "unbiased" science?

Why on earth would a scientist bother to check a scientific paper before declaring it was written to support a bias?

Don't you think a scientist would "know" that even though light moves at 186,000 mps if a device registering the wavelength is moving toward or away from the light source it is "biased" to take that movement into account when figuring the wavelength emitted by source.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Dec, 2007 12:37 pm
flaja wrote:


The satellite and weather balloon data as reported in 2005 in The politically incorrect guide to science.
Both the satellite and balloon data show warming in the troposphere. That warming is stratified and confirmed all the way up to the tropopause. Balloon data shows cooling in the stratosphere. Weather occurs mostly in the troposphere. That means climate change will occur from the troposphere warming.

Quote:

Even when they try to manipulate the data and make excuses, global warmongers freely admit that temperature data are inconsistent and that the atmosphere isn't getting hotter the way global warming says it is supposed to be.

http://www.lanl.gov/news/index.php/fuseaction/home.story/story_id/2030
I continue to fail to see why you are using data from before 2000. If the reality is the way you claim it is why don't you use up to the date information?

Quote:

My understanding is that matter in the atmosphere absorbs heat energy and then release it again at different wavelengths. Satellites measure the wavelengths of the heat energy that is released by the atmospheric matter and the measurements are then converted to temperatures that correspond to these wavelengths.
Yes and light travels at 186,000 mps which means if you fail to account for decay of the orbit there will be a slight shift in your readings. The decay is slight but when dealing with the speed of light fractions of a cm can cause a shift. The formula for calculating heat before 1998 didn't adjust for decay. It is hardly bias to make your formula more accurate.

Quote:

As far as I know temperature data from weather balloons come from actual thermometer readings. I see that none of you have bothered to refute the balloon data- which also shows no warming of the atmosphere contrary to what global warmongers expected.
So much for your knowledge of radiosonde readings by weather balloons. Radiosonde readings DO show a warming of the troposphere up to the tropopause. They then show a cooling in the stratosphere. But this too is a calculated reading. It is not taken from a thermometer but rather a thermistor and they have to try to account for several things that can affect the accuracy of the reading. You also have to remember that the way the radiosonde readings are taken has changed over time so to find a trend becomes hard when you compare early data to later data. Here is an interesting article explaining some of this
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=179
Hey, and it is even fairly current science since it is from 05.

Here is a rebuttal of your arguments flaja and points out the dated figures your source is probably using.
http://timlambert.org/2004/08/gwarming2/
0 Replies
 
engineer
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Dec, 2007 01:38 pm
Re: Global Warming?
flaja wrote:
Contrary to what this website goes on to say, I believe it is proper to use data as a plural in scientific contexts. I cannot say right off if I have ever known a scientist to use data as a singular noun.


I work with around 150 engineers and scientists on a daily basis and data is commonly used as a collective noun per the third definition you posted. I'm very surprised you haven't heard it that way since it is a common usage and it obviously pisses you off.
0 Replies
 
flaja
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Dec, 2007 06:48 pm
Re: Global Warming?
parados wrote:
old europe wrote:
flaja wrote:
As a scientist I am talking about the satellite and balloon temperature readings as a group of individual facts/statistics, which requires plural use according to 2. above.


You're so cute and cuddly, flaja. Unbelievable.

So you're a scientist?

Of course he is a scientist. Scientists always get their data from books written by lawyers and published by the Heritage foundation. How else are you going to get "unbiased" science?

Why on earth would a scientist bother to check a scientific paper before declaring it was written to support a bias?


With a bachelor's degree in biology I do have professional training as a scientist and I am entitled to call myself a scientist.

What kind of formal science training have you had?

When and where have I cited anything from the Heritage Foundation? Furthermore, I don't automatically accept any published information at face value. I don't automatically accept any information from politicians, such as Al Gore, at face value either, but apparently some of you global warmongers do.

Quote:
Don't you think a scientist would "know" that even though light moves at 186,000 mps if a device registering the wavelength is moving toward or away from the light source it is "biased" to take that movement into account when figuring the wavelength emitted by source.


You have documentation that the satellites used to measure wavelengths of energy radiated by matter in the atmosphere are moving relative to the that matter?

Furthermore, if the satellites are moving relative to the matter they are observing, at what point did scientists realize this fact and thus realized that they needed to "correct" the data the satellites were gathering?
0 Replies
 
old europe
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Dec, 2007 07:16 pm
Re: Global Warming?
flaja wrote:
With a bachelor's degree in biology I do have professional training as a scientist and I am entitled to call myself a scientist.


Laughing
0 Replies
 
flaja
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Dec, 2007 07:22 pm
parados wrote:
Both the satellite and balloon data show warming in the troposphere.


Prove it. You've yet to give me any documentation for anything regarding the balloon data and all you have provided regarding the satellite data either indicates that scientists were too stupid to realize that the satellites weren't working properly for years or scientists are "correcting" the satellite data by contaminating it with ground-based data.

Quote:
I continue to fail to see why you are using data from before 2000. If the reality is the way you claim it is why don't you use up to the date information?


As I have already pointed out the data was still current as late as 2005.

Quote:
Yes and light travels at 186,000 mps which means if you fail to account for decay of the orbit there will be a slight shift in your readings.


Haven't scientists known for decades that satellite orbits can decay? So why did it take years and years to realize that the temperature-measuring satellites had decaying orbits and were thus giving erroneous data? If it took scientists so long to realize something this simple, what guarantee do we have that they haven't been just as stupid or lazy when it comes to collecting all of the other global warming data that they spout?

Quote:
So much for your knowledge of radiosonde readings by weather balloons.


Since I haven't researched the details of how weather balloons operate, how can I be expected to know with certainty how they operate? Your insulting tone and condescending attitude is absolutely uncalled for.

Quote:
Radiosonde readings DO show a warming of the troposphere up to the tropopause.


Documentation?

Quote:
They then show a cooling in the stratosphere. But this too is a calculated reading. It is not taken from a thermometer but rather a thermistor and they have to try to account for several things that can affect the accuracy of the reading.


Why would scientists suspect the accuracy of the readings if they weren't trying to make the resulting data agree with other data in order to support a hypothesis that they already want to believe? You have two sets of conflicting data. So isn't the first a good scientist should do is reevaluate his hypothesis and not try to massage the data to make them agree? Why must the therministor readings be wrong simply because they don't agree with data from other sources? How do we know that it is not the data from the other sources that are wrong?

Quote:
You also have to remember that the way the radiosonde readings are taken has changed over time so to find a trend becomes hard when you compare early data to later data.


Most land-based weather stations are located in or near urban centers. The tend over recent decades is to surround these weather stations with more and more urban sprawl. Where I live the official weather records are taken at the airport. When the airport was built 40 years ago it was surrounded mostly by woodland. Now it is surrounded by housing communities, warehouses, industrial parks, shopping centers, roads and parking lots- all things that store heat that shows up in the official temperature records. Naturally the trend in these records over the last 40 years is up. So the way we have taken land-based temperature records has changed over time. So by your standards to find a trend becomes hard when you compare early data to later data. But because the trend is in a direction you global warmongers want to accept you don't question the data.

Quote:
Here is a rebuttal of your arguments flaja and points out the dated figures your source is probably using.
http://timlambert.org/2004/08/gwarming2/


I see a date on this page of August 17, 2004. Isn't this too old by your standards- you have complained about me relying on data from 2005.

And who is this Lambert character? Is he a lawyer? Is he affiliated with a liberal version of the Heritage Foundation? What are his credentials that I should trust what he has to say?
0 Replies
 
flaja
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Dec, 2007 07:28 pm
Re: Global Warming?
engineer wrote:
flaja wrote:
Contrary to what this website goes on to say, I believe it is proper to use data as a plural in scientific contexts. I cannot say right off if I have ever known a scientist to use data as a singular noun.


I work with around 150 engineers and scientists on a daily basis and data is commonly used as a collective noun per the third definition you posted. I'm very surprised you haven't heard it that way since it is a common usage and it obviously pisses you off.


Data is not a collective noun since it has a singular counterpart, datum. Data is not like congress, which is a collective noun in the American setting in that the United States has only one Congress that consists of multiple individual persons.
0 Replies
 
dyslexia
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Dec, 2007 07:38 pm
flaja wrote:
With a bachelor's degree in biology I do have professional training as a scientist and I am entitled to call myself a scientist.
Laughing
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Dec, 2007 08:42 pm
Re: Global Warming?
flaja wrote:


When and where have I cited anything from the Heritage Foundation? Furthermore, I don't automatically accept any published information at face value. I don't automatically accept any information from politicians, such as Al Gore, at face value either, but apparently some of you global warmongers do.
You cited the book The Politically Incorrect Guide to Global Warming by Christoper C Horner. Christopher C Horner is a Senior fellow at the Competitive Enterpise Institute. CEI is a network member of the Heritage Foundation. Horner is a lawyer. Horner also lists himself in his biography as having represented members of Congress on environmental policy in the courts as well as contributing to several think tanks. The Heritage foundation has sponsered speaking events for Horner as well as book signings.

Quote:
Don't you think a scientist would "know" that even though light moves at 186,000 mps if a device registering the wavelength is moving toward or away from the light source it is "biased" to take that movement into account when figuring the wavelength emitted by source.


You have documentation that the satellites used to measure wavelengths of energy radiated by matter in the atmosphere are moving relative to the that matter? [/quote] As a "scientist" you should understand how it works when someone cites a paper. I cited the paper. Are you incapable of looking up the paper based on a citation?

Just in case you are, it can be found here
http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v394/n6694/full/394661a0.html

Quote:

Furthermore, if the satellites are moving relative to the matter they are observing, at what point did scientists realize this fact and thus realized that they needed to "correct" the data the satellites were gathering?
Read the paper. For a "scientist" you sure don't seem to understand how science works.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Wed 19 Dec, 2007 09:27 pm
flaja wrote:
parados wrote:
Both the satellite and balloon data show warming in the troposphere.


Prove it. You've yet to give me any documentation for anything regarding the balloon data and all you have provided regarding the satellite data either indicates that scientists were too stupid to realize that the satellites weren't working properly for years or scientists are "correcting" the satellite data by contaminating it with ground-based data.
LOL.. that is TOO funny flaja.. You have NOT given any documentation for your claims but now you say "Prove it" to me?
You accuse others of being "arrogant".

Where is your data on ..
1. The satellite data shows the atmosphere is cooling
2. The balloon data shows the atmosphere is cooling
3. Rural areas are cooling.

Prove it yourself. Citing a book written by a lawyer is NOT proof. Using 11 year old data is NOT proof.


Quote:

Quote:
I continue to fail to see why you are using data from before 2000. If the reality is the way you claim it is why don't you use up to the date information?


As I have already pointed out the data was still current as late as 2005.
The 1996 data was NOT current. Just because you found it on the internet doesn't mean it is current. New science corrected it and new numbers were produced.
Quote:

Quote:
Yes and light travels at 186,000 mps which means if you fail to account for decay of the orbit there will be a slight shift in your readings.


Haven't scientists known for decades that satellite orbits can decay? So why did it take years and years to realize that the temperature-measuring satellites had decaying orbits and were thus giving erroneous data? If it took scientists so long to realize something this simple, what guarantee do we have that they haven't been just as stupid or lazy when it comes to collecting all of the other global warming data that they spout?

Quote:
So much for your knowledge of radiosonde readings by weather balloons.


Since I haven't researched the details of how weather balloons operate, how can I be expected to know with certainty how they operate? Your insulting tone and condescending attitude is absolutely uncalled for.
My insulting tone? Rolling Eyes
Quote:

Quote:
Radiosonde readings DO show a warming of the troposphere up to the tropopause.


Documentation?


ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ratpac/ratpac-a/RATPAC-A-annual-levels.txt
Quote:

Quote:
They then show a cooling in the stratosphere. But this too is a calculated reading. It is not taken from a thermometer but rather a thermistor and they have to try to account for several things that can affect the accuracy of the reading.


Why would scientists suspect the accuracy of the readings if they weren't trying to make the resulting data agree with other data in order to support a hypothesis that they already want to believe? You have two sets of conflicting data. So isn't the first a good scientist should do is reevaluate his hypothesis and not try to massage the data to make them agree?
When you have taken measurements 2 different ways and they don't agree, is your first thought that BOTH are correct? If you see 2 weather reports, one says the temperature is 20 and the other says it is 25, do you assume one is wrong? Would you not then check to see WHY one of them is wrong. The first thing to check is to see the data is being collected correctly. I see no reason to change the hypthesis so that taking the temperature several different ways should result in different readings. That would be silly.

Quote:
Why must the therministor readings be wrong simply because they don't agree with data from other sources? How do we know that it is not the data from the other sources that are wrong?
Read the article before you ask such a simple question. It explains it rather clearly.
Quote:

Quote:
You also have to remember that the way the radiosonde readings are taken has changed over time so to find a trend becomes hard when you compare early data to later data.


Most land-based weather stations are located in or near urban centers. The tend over recent decades is to surround these weather stations with more and more urban sprawl. Where I live the official weather records are taken at the airport. When the airport was built 40 years ago it was surrounded mostly by woodland. Now it is surrounded by housing communities, warehouses, industrial parks, shopping centers, roads and parking lots- all things that store heat that shows up in the official temperature records.
Uh uh.. and your evidence of this is what? As you said earlier.. "prove it".
Quote:

Naturally the trend in these records over the last 40 years is up. So the way we have taken land-based temperature records has changed over time. So by your standards to find a trend becomes hard when you compare early data to later data. But because the trend is in a direction you global warmongers want to accept you don't question the data.
LOL.. I see. So if you just declare I don't question the data, that must make it so. Of course.. The ducks and geese that now fly north 2 weeks earlier are not data in your world. The fact that the ice goes out on lakes a couple of weeks earlier than it used to is not data in your world. I keep forgetting all those lakes have apartment buildings built on them. Rolling Eyes It must be all those apartment buildings in the Arctic that have resulted in the Arctic ice melting more each year since you think "rural" areas are cooling.
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2007/05/070501-arctic-ice.html

Quote:

Quote:
Here is a rebuttal of your arguments flaja and points out the dated figures your source is probably using.
http://timlambert.org/2004/08/gwarming2/


I see a date on this page of August 17, 2004. Isn't this too old by your standards- you have complained about me relying on data from 2005.
The last time I checked 2004 is after 2003. Do you have something that disputes the 2004 article point by point? Science is funny that way, it requres that something be disputed and argued WHY it isn't valid. The 1996 data has been disputed and shown to be wrong. There has been no subsequent science to dispute the 1998 changes. It is NOT science to ignore changes to the science and pretend they never occurred.
Quote:

And who is this Lambert character? Is he a lawyer? Is he affiliated with a liberal version of the Heritage Foundation? What are his credentials that I should trust what he has to say?
You could check the website. He lists them there including the word "scientist" in his profession as well as the university he works at. If you can't even do the basic research of checking the credentials of the author of an article how are we supposed to take you seriously.
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Thu 20 Dec, 2007 08:21 am
You'll find, Parados, that Herr Flaja will consistently demand "proof" from others, but won't bother to offer any himself. On those few occasions when i've seen him offer "proof," it is almost always not actually referential to the subject, or from a dubious source.

He demands "proof" at a ratio of about 20:1 in comparison to those times when he himself actually offers "proof."
0 Replies
 
mysteryman
 
  1  
Reply Thu 20 Dec, 2007 02:01 pm
Setanta wrote:
You'll find, Parados, that Herr Flaja will consistently demand "proof" from others, but won't bother to offer any himself. On those few occasions when i've seen him offer "proof," it is almost always not actually referential to the subject, or from a dubious source.

He demands "proof" at a ratio of about 20:1 in comparison to those times when he himself actually offers "proof."


I'm not going to comment on the subject matter,because I dont know enough of the science involved.

But, when you said..." it is almost always not actually referential to the subject, or from a dubious source."...

It could be said that any proof, offered by anyone, is from a "dubious source" if it disagrees with soemone else's ideas and theories.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 20 Dec, 2007 02:46 pm
There is quite a difference between articles published in peer reviewed science journals and books promoted by a think tank.

The first one is reviewed by peers and critiqued for any possible errors. The second has no such process. Whether I agree or disagree with the conclusion really has nothing to do with the standard of one being superior to the other.
0 Replies
 
flaja
 
  1  
Reply Thu 20 Dec, 2007 02:50 pm
Re: Global Warming?
parados wrote:
You cited the book The Politically Incorrect Guide to Global Warming by Christoper C Horner.


As I have already said the book I meant to cite was by Bethel. I have not read Horner's book. Please pay attention.
0 Replies
 
old europe
 
  1  
Reply Thu 20 Dec, 2007 02:57 pm
Re: Global Warming?
flaja wrote:
Bethel.


You mean Tom Bethell? The journalist (not scientist)? The guy who denies that HIV causes AIDS?

That Bethell?
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 20 Dec, 2007 03:29 pm
Re: Global Warming?
old europe wrote:
flaja wrote:
Bethel.


You mean Tom Bethell? The journalist (not scientist)? The guy who denies that HIV causes AIDS?

That Bethell?

It would be that Tom Bethell. In the same book he promotes Intelligent Design, denies AIDS is caused by HIV, AND misuses science on global warming. The book was published in 2005 and uses 1996 data.

Oh.. and the Heritage Foundation promoted his book and did book signings and speaking engagements for him.

Here is a chapter by chapter review of his book
http://www.anthonares.net/2005/12/scientifically-incorrect-guide-to.html

This one in particular points out the errors and omissions in the climate change chapter.
http://www.anthonares.net/2005/11/pig-to-science-climate-change.html



I must say I love the original tag line for his book:

The Politically Incorrect Guide to Science
"Liberals have hijacked science for long enough. Now it's our turn!"

The tag line kind of gives away the purpose of the book. It isn't about finding truth.
0 Replies
 
flaja
 
  1  
Reply Thu 20 Dec, 2007 04:02 pm
parados wrote:
Where is your data on ..
1. The satellite data shows the atmosphere is cooling
2. The balloon data shows the atmosphere is cooling
3. Rural areas are cooling.
0 Replies
 
flaja
 
  1  
Reply Thu 20 Dec, 2007 04:05 pm
parados wrote:
There is quite a difference between articles published in peer reviewed science journals and books promoted by a think tank.

The first one is reviewed by peers and critiqued for any possible errors. The second has no such process. Whether I agree or disagree with the conclusion really has nothing to do with the standard of one being superior to the other.


If all of the peers accept the same dogma, what good does peer review do? If a scientist wants to believe in global warming, what chance is there that he will disagree with a colleague's data or conclusions that support global warming?
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Thu 20 Dec, 2007 04:27 pm
flaja wrote:

If all of the peers accept the same dogma, what good does peer review do? If a scientist wants to believe in global warming, what chance is there that he will disagree with a colleague's data or conclusions that support global warming?


Since you are a scientist, you certainly have published some articles in peer reviewed magaiznes, too, or even reviewed other authors.

So you certainly know better than shown in your above response how peer reviewing works.
0 Replies
 
parados
 
  1  
Reply Thu 20 Dec, 2007 05:07 pm
flaja wrote:
parados wrote:
Where is your data on ..
1. The satellite data shows the atmosphere is cooling
2. The balloon data shows the atmosphere is cooling
3. Rural areas are cooling.



I have already given you documentation for this information. I also pointed out that even global warmongers admit that satellite data indicate a cooling of the atmosphere even when they make excuses for the data.
If you gave actual documentation that stands up to critique I must have missed it. You tend to throw out old data and demand we accept it in spite of the new data.

Quote:

http://www.borderlands.com/newstuff/research/cycle23/warming.htm

Notice the graphs. The one for urban temperature readings shows a sustained upward trend, while the one for rural areas shows that the 5 year average temperature has fluctuated within a very narrow range. Thus rural areas are not warming and thus the globe is not warming.
Your site lists 27 rural stations in Australia and only goes to 1991. Hardly a large enough sample to extrapolate your claim to the globe. Or current enough to make the claim current for 2007. In a biology class you would get an F for your conclusions based on the data you used.

Oh, look. It's data from before the corrected MSU. Rolling Eyes

Quote:


http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,166150,00.html

"When University of Alabama-Huntsville researcher Roy Spencer, a prominent climatologist, factored the newly reported corrections into his calculations, his estimate of atmospheric warming was only 0.12 deg. C/decade -- higher than the prior estimate of 0.09 deg. C/decade, but well below the Science study estimate of 0.19 deg C/decade and the surface temperature estimate of 0.20 deg. C/decade.

"As to the claimed errors in the weather balloon measurements, Spencer says that no other effort to adjust the balloon data has produced warming estimates as high as those reported in the new study and that it will take time for the research community to form opinions about whether the new adjustments advocated are justified.
Not sure what you are trying to show with this but I read it as the balloon data shows warming which is NOT what you claimed.
Quote:

I am curious as to what science Singer is using. In 2002 there was no obvious trend. This is the latest..
http://www.worldclimatereport.com/index.php/2007/09/05/antarctica-warming-cooling-or-both/

But are you really going to claim that your "rural areas are cooling" referred to only Antarctica and Australia?
0 Replies
 
 

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