The Failed Presidency.

Good point there, CdK ... but Bush The Younger will get the credit nonetheless ... and actually, I do see his current policies as being a good part of the impetus behind overall ongoing global economic recovery.

I just posted an article from the NYTimes (today), Timber, which lays out a case for bad time ahead, based on a structural problem in the economy. They also felt there will be a strengthening in the fourth quarter, but that it will be temporary and superficial (my words).

My own feeling is that we have to look not just at corporate profits but at what is done with those corporate profits -- who gets them, profiteers? or workers via newly created jobs?

Craven -- How do you factor the massive tax cuts into that picture? Some pretty respectable economists are worried that the tax cuts and the deficit have put a stake through the heart of the economy.

Timber,

I don't think Bush's plans can be credited for Global economic recovery at all. After 9/11 the uncertainty factor really crippled economies. Bush generated a new uncertainty factor with Iraq that dragged on and on.

Once the war started there was an economic sigh of relief but that was the antidote to the ailment he brought on.

Other than those things Bush has not done much toward global economics.

Tartarin,

i do not support the tax cuts without a reduction in spending. But I don't think the tax cuts effect the economy much one way or the other.

The tax cuts are a very serious issue when it comes to the defecit (and there is a remote chance that the defecit might actually hurt America some day) but are unrelated (in either a substantially positive or negative way) to the current economic situation.

Never portray anything when the opponent has flaws, especially large ones. However, no campaign in my lifetime has run on so little as Bush did. There is so little required of him. The Dems have already proposed more in two debates than he proposed in 18 months.

If Bush keeps up alienating the middle and working class, as in taking away the 60 year old overtime ruling, he is a goner. This was brought out by more than one candidate last night, as with the repeal of his taxes for the wealthy. I think it is near sighted to say the Dems stand for nothing - pure poppycocK!!!

Whether or not the Dems stand for anything it is true that they have been suffering an identity crisis since the end of teh Clinton era.

That they aren't able to articulate their platform and pump up their candidates is not indicative of them not standing for anything but it is, indeed, a problem and IMO a problem that will cost them the upcoming election.

The Dems shoulda had the balls to call the Iraq bluff.

Well, I think you're right about global economics, Craven. But as for the tax cuts being unrelated, I'd only agree with you up to a point: nothing Bush has done is unrelated (anymore any other president). The economy is not separate from daily life.

There may be some people cheering at the very top, feeling nice and secure. But the bottom 90% are feeling the pinch, all right, right through the middle class whose tax cuts are having less impact than they might have wished, but upon whom unemployment is having enormous impact. From realtors to banks to small businesses to new car dealers (the ones that aren't selling Hummers), fewer people buying goods and services means less income. So you get back $800 in tax cuts; and you lose 3, 4, 5, 15, thou in income because your used car lot + taco stand just aren't getting the buyers they did three years ago. So that 800 you and the wife were going to use to vacation in the Keys has been used up on groceries and medical insurance.

Meanwhile, in the wings, is the great monster of national credit card debt, growing bigger every day...

Back to presidential daughters(The result of a day on campus exposed to those horrible,evil, pernicious women in summer clothing):
Chelsea Clinton is an accomplished young lady, who has done well academically and deserves respect.
Jenna,(I think) is also apparently academically accomplished,and is doing well at Yale, better than her father did, which isn't difficult..
Barbara is at UT Austin living the partying life of a sorority chick, and that is quite alright too. they are 21, fer pete's sake!
Criticism of them (and I have been guilty of it, too) is probably in poor taste. Now their fathers, on the other hand, are bipedal paraodies.

It gets tighter by the day Craven - there isn't a national theme until Mar/Apr - especially after last nights debate the Dems looked united against Bush. They just neeed to stay away from back stabbing.

There isn't suppose to be a platform until next summer. Bush is compelled to performance - the Dems want to stay loose until the summer. If they tie themselves down completely now, they destroy the flexibility of time! No hurry, Bush keeps digging a hole.........

hmm, I actually think American debt is a good think as far as the big picture is concerned. Americans are the poorest people in the world when you consider the average amount owed.

But all that credit is where much of the economy's size is. If you ahve 100 dollars but have access to 100 dollars of credit for the economy's purposes there is 200 dollars circulating.

Since the debt is internal (most Americans owe Americans) it's really just a big neat "virtual" economy. It hurts the small guy to pay an American corporation his hard earned money but the money eventually goes back into the circulation.

The tax cuts simply won't make much of a difference for the better or for the worse in the short term. I do see long-term inplications in that they could make the deficit an issue that will need to be addressed perhaps in drastic manner but the economic woes predate the tax cuts.

IMO, the realization that the brick and mortar world is not separate from teh "virtual" world is the biggest responsible factor. In retrospect it's glaringly obvious that businesses that banked on the "virtual" were only going to make "virtual" money. the success stories on the internet are almost always brick and mortar based.

The internet has been undergoing a slow transition from .edu to .com. there are growing pains while people figure out how to do business. At first they thought that the internet was a new way to make money when in reality it's just a new medium and a new way to collect money.

The misperceptions and consequent indulgence of the dot coms during the bubble are, IMO, the single most relevant factor in the economic downturn with the psychological ramifications of 9/11 and the subsequent american militarism coming second.

Very liberal of you Craven, and the view of the GOP - so who is the conservatives?

Bill,

I think when you reference "backstabbing" you reference the single most important aspect that makes the Dem's job hard. The lack of a clear favorite to forward as a candidate.

I too don't think the Dems need an issue-based platform just yet and in fact I think running as opposition is a sound one.

But they need a coherent voice and they need to 'celebritize' a candidate.

I see that as being difficult for them. They need a charismatic persona nd they need to give that person name recognition. Right now there is time to do so but time is ticking.

The Center keeps being referred to as though it were a definite entity - standing there ready to be defined and looked at. But what and where is the center? There are, from growing evidence, many,many dems out there who do not consider themselves center or left. Mostly, what they are is mad. And that s what is happening. Democrats are beginning to be revved up, and the faint oulines of a party program are first making themselves known. I don't know who will get the democratic nod, but I know it won't be Lieberman, because his terribly worked at centrist picture isn't working. And it won't be Kucinich, because he's a little much. But whoever it is will certainly take a cue from Dean, who recognized, tapped into, and channeled the real anger he saw out there. And the anger is real. It's gone far away from Florida, and into everyday life.

Timber, you say the economy is improving, and then you have some figures and statistics to back it up. But a country's economy depends upon its middle class, and, more than that, a productively engaged middle class. That's why the job picture is more important than ever. Loss of jobs means loss of income, which means an eventual housing crisis (and some states have begun to worry about that). It means that the need for aid for food domestically rises, and already some of the food distribution centers across the states are reporting shortages. In other words, you can present figures that show productivity is up, but quite often that translates to the cutting of costs, which invariably means labor. They announced today that another 90,000 plus jobs were gone in August. And none of the lost jobs have been replaced. And applications for jobless benefits have risen sharply this past month. Now you may think the Bush economy is doing well, but a lot of the ordinary people I know don't. Ad I hear a lot of money talk: enough members of the family work in that field, and they are not sanguine about what's coming.

It's the easy way out to say the democrats have no leadership - look what's beginning to happen. No repub likes to talk about it, but there's a reason Dean has caught on with millions of people. And now Kerry. No plans, no programs? Perhaps you've been listening to the wrong democrats.

So far as criticism - well. That's how it goes. Seems to me that for eight years we dems were subjected to an awful lot of terrible things said about us. Repubs dished it out; they should be man enough to take it.

And the biggest thing of all? It's what Bush has done to the American image. We are laughed at, made fun of, not obeyed, sometimes not even listened to. The president is the butt of too many jokes and cartoons world-wide, and they aren't friendly. But we caused that to happen from the beginning, by saying the UN was irrelevant, by backing out of treaties and agreements, by making it very plain that we were able to and going to do all this alone. And that hasn't worked at all.

What's done is done. We haven't seen any signs of a plan from the repubs. Simply saying "I have a plan" doesn't make it so. I have no idea what the admin plans on creating jobs, beyond them saying so. No leadership there that I can see.

The "meat" is when the repubs actually begin to increase jobs as they've promised for the past three years, instead of the over three million lost jobs. Increase in jobs actually means creating jobs that adds to the three million jobs lost. It doesn't mean starting from zero, today. That's what I call "meat."

Craven, Labor Day is politically referred to as the beginning of the season, time is ticking - yes, but the season is 5 days old.

Coherent, the Dems have never been coherent until the convention. Right now, as I said before - the worst thing that can happen to them is Clark, Nader running as an Independent/Green and a division such as the Gore/Bradley division. These hard, shoe stomping times don't happen until Primaries start.

The GOP/media would love to try and get them started now! If the Dems go against Bush as a failure and go against each other on issues - Bush is lost. The mantra:

BUSH IS A FAILURE, poor poor GOP!

I did not know that about labor day. Thanks.

I don't think the Dems have a lost cause, just a tough job. This can all change if they manage to "celebritize" a candidate. They need to work on "brand awareness" right now.

I knew of it during the actual campaign, ie, next year. But just found out about it from Diane Rheims on her show today. She mentioned that she considers September 1 to be the first day of the 'new year'. I took that as 'politically speaking' - linked with Labor Day next year being the beginning of the season and the debates just started, I linked them. Maybe wrong.

I don't fully agree with the "celebritize" a candidate a candidate right now. If they pick the wrong one out of 10 - oops! Wait until March when the winner will be known - if you peak too early, bye bye! Many consider Gore peaked to early, at the time thought he was holding the heavy stuff in check.........

Timber
I would hope that you are correct in your thinking. However it goes against conventional wisdom. The recovery is predicted to be a jobless in the short and even the medium term. Many of the lost manufacturing jobs no longer exist and productivity gains are eating into the rest. In addition to manufacturing back office and technical positions are also going off shore.
We simply cannot compete with low wage nations.


Jobless rate falls to 6.1 pct. in August
Posted: Friday, September 5, 10:09am EDT

The civilian unemployment rate improved marginally last month - sliding to 6.1 percent - as companies slashed payrolls by 93,000. Friday's report sent mixed signals about the nation's overall economic health. August was the seventh consecutive month of cuts in payrolls, a survey released by the Labor Department showed, indicating continuing weakness in the job market. But the overall seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell from 6.2 percent to 6.1 percent of the labor force, as reflected by a survey of US households. The survey of businesses showed that job cuts were heavy again in manufacturing, a sector that has suffered the brunt of the economic downturn that began in March 2001. President Bush on Monday announced that a Commerce Department assistant secretary post was being changed to focus on revitalizing that part of the economy. Friday's reports no longer reflected a cyclical economy trying to add jobs after a recession. Analysts had expected companies to add some jobs last month. Deeper concerns now are focused on long-term structural problems in the economy, such as a flood of US jobs going overseas. Some reports estimate 5 million jobs - many high-paying - will be lost to other countries by 2015. The economy is growing, but demand is being filled from overseas. Also, because of that increasing global competition, businesses are holding down costs by not hiring.

93,000 more jobs lost in August -

The 2nd quarter recovery was military spending, Government sponsored. Take the away and it was a weak growth quarter.

It has been pointed out that Bush is the largest new spending President in American history - sorry, it doesn't matter that it is all military.

When compared, Bush expenditure for bombs to be exploded in Iraq to destroy infrastructure that we then pay to rebuild vs. Dems - rebuild an electric infrustructure in America, jobs at home, medical care for Americans, food for Americans, education for Americans - turn the economy over, new capitalization that creates more capitalization. Well, it is easy for me to see what is better.

The insurance companies in Hartford, my home state of Connecticut, are moving their computer operations to India, hundreds of jobs have been lost this year alone.

I work for the government on a large project that is being implemented. We have a large number of foreigners, mostly Indians, working on this project. They were hired because there aren't enough available qualified ................ohhhhhh, nevermind..................