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Will Hillary Give Obama The Vice Pres Nod?

 
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Oct, 2007 07:06 pm
kuvasz wrote:
so what you have written shows that it is edwards who leads and obama and clinton follow.

that's about right.

True true, thats why I like him best too.

I was just replying to the bit about how "neither clinton or obama come close to" the health program Edwards laid out. Hillary didnt have the guts to lead the way, true, but the program she came out with is actually very much like Edwards'. (And you cant say that about Obama).

(Mr. Literal, I know..)
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Oct, 2007 07:13 pm
kuvasz wrote:
The day Al Gore says definitely NO is the day millions of us are heading over to the Edwards campaign. No other candidate has a truly progressive message on which to campaign.

I hope you're right - that that's what will happen, when the day comes. Cause hell yeah, I want the most progressive candidate to win as well, and with John Edwards, you arguably have the guy who is the most progressive and the most electable of the three frontrunners. Two for the price of one!

Unfortunately, the evidence so far, in the way of polling at least, weighs heavily against it.

There are opinion polls out there that include Gore in their survey; there are those that don't; but there are also plenty that specify how the numbers would change if Gore is in- or excluded. (Would have to look up how they do it, I guess they ask a follow-up question to those who in first instance say Gore, or they use alternate lists). And whats striking is that the Gore voters break down pretty representatively towards the main three - a plurality to Hillary, with significant minor chunks to Obama and Edwards.

Thats probably why the question about what impact 'the Gore electorate' might have on the Democratic primary has kinda seeped out of discussion - I guess a kind of consensus has grown that they dont particularly break one way or another, they just disperse.

Here's some examples:

AP-Ipsos national survey, conducted 9/21 through 9/25,

When Gore is excluded, the numbers change as follows:

Hillary +5
Obama +3
Edwards +3

CNN/WMUR survey in New Hampshire, conducted 9/17 through 9/24:

When Gore is excluded, the numbers change as follows:

Hillary +2
Obama +1
Edwards +1

Cook Political Report national survey, conducted 9/13 through 9/16:

Hillary +3
Obama +1
Edwards +2

AP/Ipsos national survey, conducted 9/10 through 9/12:

Hillary +9
Obama +3
Edwards +3

FOX News/Opinion Dynamics national survey, conducted 9/11 through 9/12:

Hillary +4
Obama +4
Edwards +0

CNN/Opinion Research national survey, conducted 9/7 through 9/9:

Hillary +7
Obama +3
Edwards +1

kuvasz wrote:
Neither one has been converted to liberalism (regardless of my personal missionary work), but they have come to the conclusion that America's a mess and the GOP they voted for caused it. Both like the populist message of Edwards and plan on supporting him if he is the nominee in 2008. These are the type of people who left the Democratic Party in 1980 to vote for Reagan, it is time for them to come home

Now there's an argument for Edwards that does already have some evidence (such as it is) going for it in terms of polling as well. On average, Edwards has been faring clearly better than either Obama or Hillary when it comes to hypothetical match-ups against the Republican candidates. Either he is getting more people to express a preference for him, or he is driving fewer people to express a preference for the Republican opponent.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Oct, 2007 07:41 pm
snood wrote:
Blatham:
Quote:
I hadn't actually thought of this before, but I think circumstances are boxing Hillary in. I think she is going to have to offer it to Obama if she wins.


Blatham old shoe, you know I am fond of ya, and all due respect but I think you might be just a wee bit naive about the depth and breadth of Hillary's ambition, the casualness with which even a black man as formidable as Obama could be dissed, and a couple other things having to do with the politics of race in this country.

You and I already have a $10 bet that she will/will not offer it, but you're sounding more and more like an easy mark.

Have you ever heard that in terms of real cache and status in American society, of the 4 main groups it shakes down in order of precedence- white men, white women, black women, black men? If you haven't heard that, do you believe it?


hi snood
I guess my question to you would be, precisely why do you hold such a notion about Hillary and her ambitions?

You aren't making a claim or a suggestion re her ambition towards the Presidency (which is inarguable as she's running for it) but rather you are making a suggestion that her personality is such that she could not abide having someone around her (like a vice president) who might challenge her status as Mighty Kahuna Vagina. She is, this portrayal suggests, a Ball-Squashing Bitch.

Please seriously reflect on how you might have gotten such a notion.

If the description was even close to being accurate, wouldn't it be likely that her husband would be a simpering, emasculated, ineffective, shy, fearful, crumpled and insignificant little fella?

Bill is none of those things. None.

I don't know how many times in discussions here on a2k someone has repeated the cliche that "Hillary is just too polarizing". On Olbermann's show this evening, he ran some polling statistics that compared Hillary against the three main Republican candidates. The polling question was (something like) "Would you NOT vote for this person under any circumstances?" In other words, how polarizing is each of these four individuals. And each of the four Republican candidates gained higher percentages than Hillary! All three are MORE POLARIZING THAN Hillary. Excuse the yelling but all of this drives me crazy.

Americans have been hit over the head for a decade and a half with negatives spawned out of the conservative smear machine. She was a target through her connection to Bill and through her early moves re medicare. It seems to just have seeped into many of you through the constant repetition.

She's got a great campaign, there's no question. But her numbers keep increasing along with increased exposure...the more people see her and hear her, the better she does. And that's because these crafted smears and unquestioned assumptions are being shown to be hollow or greatly exaggerated.

I consider both her and her husband rather further right than is my preference (in military matters and in support for powerful business interests) but that's something else entirely.
0 Replies
 
maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Oct, 2007 08:01 pm
Cycloptichorn wrote:
McGentrix wrote:
Obama is the only Dem I would consider voting for. Purely for his charisma factor.

It would depend on his rival to get my vote. For example, I don't particularly like Rudi. Obama V. Rudi, Obama wins. McCain on the other hand, would get my vote. There is no other Dem that would get my vote over any of the Republican nominee.


Strangely enough, McCain is the only Republican I would consider voting for.

Cycloptichorn


Even stranger, me too.
0 Replies
 
snood
 
  1  
Reply Fri 5 Oct, 2007 08:46 pm
blatham wrote:
snood wrote:
Blatham:
Quote:
I hadn't actually thought of this before, but I think circumstances are boxing Hillary in. I think she is going to have to offer it to Obama if she wins.


Blatham old shoe, you know I am fond of ya, and all due respect but I think you might be just a wee bit naive about the depth and breadth of Hillary's ambition, the casualness with which even a black man as formidable as Obama could be dissed, and a couple other things having to do with the politics of race in this country.

You and I already have a $10 bet that she will/will not offer it, but you're sounding more and more like an easy mark.

Have you ever heard that in terms of real cache and status in American society, of the 4 main groups it shakes down in order of precedence- white men, white women, black women, black men? If you haven't heard that, do you believe it?


hi snood
I guess my question to you would be, precisely why do you hold such a notion about Hillary and her ambitions?

You aren't making a claim or a suggestion re her ambition towards the Presidency (which is inarguable as she's running for it) but rather you are making a suggestion that her personality is such that she could not abide having someone around her (like a vice president) who might challenge her status as Mighty Kahuna Vagina. She is, this portrayal suggests, a Ball-Squashing Bitch.

Please seriously reflect on how you might have gotten such a notion.

If the description was even close to being accurate, wouldn't it be likely that her husband would be a simpering, emasculated, ineffective, shy, fearful, crumpled and insignificant little fella?

Bill is none of those things. None.

I don't know how many times in discussions here on a2k someone has repeated the cliche that "Hillary is just too polarizing". On Olbermann's show this evening, he ran some polling statistics that compared Hillary against the three main Republican candidates. The polling question was (something like) "Would you NOT vote for this person under any circumstances?" In other words, how polarizing is each of these four individuals. And each of the four Republican candidates gained higher percentages than Hillary! All three are MORE POLARIZING THAN Hillary. Excuse the yelling but all of this drives me crazy.

Americans have been hit over the head for a decade and a half with negatives spawned out of the conservative smear machine. She was a target through her connection to Bill and through her early moves re medicare. It seems to just have seeped into many of you through the constant repetition.

She's got a great campaign, there's no question. But her numbers keep increasing along with increased exposure...the more people see her and hear her, the better she does. And that's because these crafted smears and unquestioned assumptions are being shown to be hollow or greatly exaggerated.

I consider both her and her husband rather further right than is my preference (in military matters and in support for powerful business interests) but that's something else entirely.


I don't get my opinions from any sinister "seepage" - I read, and I try to figure things out for myself. I've read a lot about Bill and Hillary over the years - some complimentary, some not. I'm aware of the big machinary of negative propaganda that was mounted against them at one time or another. I also hear the adoring masses of black folk who seem to think Hillary is some kind of savior.

Why don't you just stipulate that from what you've acertained, you think Hillary is great, and from what I've gotten, she's not so great, and stop trying to attach something else to that basic disagreement.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Oct, 2007 09:46 am
snood

Sorry, old friend, I understand how my argument must come across. soz and nimh, I think, have found it a tad insulting as well (blatham can see your thinking processes better than you yourselves can). And I apologize for it.

But...but...it is the case that the general perceptions of what is real about Hillary's personality is changing. Something like "hey, she's not so bad/cold/bitchy after all" is clearly going on in many people's noggins. It becomes a matter of trying to understand why this perception is changing and how the earlier perception/agreement arose. And I think that I can trace those notions directly back to two things: first, cultural notions about females in power and second, the right wing campaign to "position" or "frame" her negatively in relation to those cultural notions...the witch, the bitch, the improperly empowered and totalitarian mother in law, the passionless ball-squasher, etc. These are very powerful cultural images which have been purposefully and successfully wielded to have us think about Hillary in certain ways.

Anyway, you all know what my argument is here. And I apologize again for the suggestions that attend it.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Oct, 2007 10:22 am
I want to post this because it is somewhat related to what I've just written above re unreflected (and often very nutty or oppressive) cultural notions... which can be and usually are used as political weapons.
Quote:
Bernard Goldberg: "[W]omen and minorities" have "pushed the newsroom further and further to the left"
Summary: On The O'Reilly Factor, discussing what Bill O'Reilly perceived as the waning influence of "major elite media institutions," Bernard Goldberg asserted: "[W]hen women and minorities came into journalism, they pushed the newsroom further and further to the left. Everybody agrees that minorities are overwhelmingly liberal in this country, and so are young women." Goldberg later stated: "[T]he point I was trying to make ... is that this problem didn't start last week or the week before. Journalism has been moving further and further to the left. It's a good thing that we have women and minorities in the newsroom. That's the good part. The bad part is that by moving further and further to the left, they've been eroding trust in journalism for a long, long time."
http://mediamatters.org/items/200710050011?f=h_side

The proper place for women is the kitchen and the proper place for minorities is hotel staff.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Oct, 2007 11:52 am
blatham wrote:
And I think that I can trace those notions directly back to two things: first, cultural notions about females in power and second, the right wing campaign to "position" or "frame" her negatively in relation to those cultural notions...the witch, the bitch, the improperly empowered and totalitarian mother in law, the passionless ball-squasher, etc.

Yes, of course. Of course those would be the two things that have informed the perception of Hillary that people like Soz, Snood and me have. After all, just look at us: look at Soz, or at me. We're natural bait for the cultural notion that a powerful woman must be "a witch and a bitch". I'm sure that's how Soz sees it - sees herself, probably, as well. It's certainly how I saw my mother. When you dig deep enough in the psyche of her or me or Snood, what you find is indeed the underlying "unreflected cultural notion" that "the proper place for women is the kitchen and the proper place for minorities is hotel staff." Of course!

And then of course, what else could Snood or me be possibly influenced by in our perception of Hillary's character than the right wing campaign? Its not like there have ever been progressive and leftwing voices deploring and criticizing Hillary's modus operandi. No, we have just bought into the Fox News media smears!

Because there is nothing in Hillary's actual, real-life character, or in the role she has played and the way she has chosen to play out that role, that would actually warrant any semblance of the impressions we have of Hillary.

"A tad insulting"? No, it's plain arrogance, Blatham. The vanity that comes with the righteous sense that you have found The Right (and by extension, Only) Answer, and if others disagree they must just be.. well, misguided.

But in reality, the insights you offer here are hardly some silver bullet that explain it all. It's pedestrian stuff, to be honest - yes, we know, we've read it in all the magazines and blogs as well, and yes, we actually also agree that the elements you describe have played a role. But no, that's not all there is to say about it, and no, it cant neatly serve to explain away all and any hesitation about Hillary's character.

Ironically, the trap you have fallen in is that you yourself have become a prisoner of the rightwing media smear machine. The smears they put out are obviously intellectually and morally bankrupt, and they deserve to be angry about. They deserve vigilantly rejecting. But there is a width of debate and criticism - also of Hillary's modus operandi, yes - possible within the progressive political spectrum as well, whereas you seem to have narrowed your horizon to the merely reactive: analysing, reacting and rejecting the rightwing media stuff, and basta. If they say something, the opposite must be true. And if anyone on the left has criticism that is anywhere similar to what the rightwing has put out, it must be informed by it and rejected.

Your purely reactive mode of analysis reminds me, and not for the first time - because the more I think about this the more I'm reminded of a previous, seemingly unrelated debate of principle we had (on pages 54-57 of this thread) - of that part of the European hard left of the Cold War era, which led its disgust of the CIA and US tactics harden into a reactive loyalty to the other camp. Like more independent leftist minds, they read and knew all about the CIA crimes and intrigues that toppled democratically elected governments, armed terrorist guerrillas to undermine any leftwing third world government, aided and abetted coups and dictators. Like them, they knew of the mass misinformation spread by the hard right in the Cold War, the lies and deceptions. But unlike them, they had become gradually unable to view any concerns or disturbing news about countries in the other camp in any other light but that one.

They knew the CIA was out to discredit, say, Sandinist Nicaragua by any means, so when news that reflected badly on Ortega and his men came through, they felt justified in dismissing it out of hand - I'm not going to be a foil for CIA propaganda! The result, of course, was a deeply unhealthy domain in political culture - which eventually led those particular leftists to sleep through far too many crimes and oppressions on the part of any regime opposed by the US. Whether it was the Eastern Bloc in the fifties or later, when even on the left noone but hardline communists still supported those countries, the regimes in Mozambique, Angola, Cuba, Nicaragua, you knew there really was a powerful disinformation campaign by the US & CIA, so when you heard of bad things from there, what else could it be but CIA misinformation? But that's myopia, right there.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Oct, 2007 12:32 pm
Quote:
But in reality, the insights you offer here are hardly some silver bullet that explain it all. It's pedestrian stuff, to be honest - yes, we know, we've read it in all the magazines and blogs as well, and yes, we actually also agree that the elements you describe have played a role. But no, that's not all there is to say about it, and no, it cant neatly serve to explain away all and any hesitation about Hillary's character.

Ironically, the trap you have fallen in is that you yourself have become a prisoner of the rightwing media smear machine. The smears they put out are obviously intellectually and morally bankrupt, and they deserve to be angry about. They deserve vigilantly rejecting. But there is a width of debate and criticism - also of Hillary's modus operandi, yes - possible within the progressive political spectrum as well, whereas you seem to have narrowed your horizon to the merely reactive: analysing, reacting and rejecting the rightwing media stuff, and basta. If they say something, the opposite must be true. And if anyone on the left has criticism that is anywhere similar to what the rightwing has put out, it must be informed by it and rejected.


Let's take this part. Pretty clearly, there will be a range of views and arguments regarding the policies that Hillary has supported in the past, or seems likely to forward in the future, as with any candidate or politician. But that's not what is at issue here, right?

Take, "she's too ambitious". Is that a notion you've entertained? What are the negative notions about her personality that you have entertained. Could you state them?
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Oct, 2007 12:40 pm
That was nicely stated, nimh.

I had started to write a variation of this:

nimh wrote:
But in reality, the insights you offer here are hardly some silver bullet that explain it all. It's pedestrian stuff, to be honest - yes, we know, we've read it in all the magazines and blogs as well, and yes, we actually also agree that the elements you describe have played a role. But no, that's not all there is to say about it, and no, it cant neatly serve to explain away all and any hesitation about Hillary's character.


Especially the part I bolded, but this does it better.

I'd add that the ongoing discussion has been not only about what we think about her personally, but about whether we think she should be the Democratic nominee.

Comparing her to the Republicans in terms of who people will definitely NOT vote for moves the goalposts a bit, then. Chances are, this is going to be a close race -- and we want the Democratic candidate to win. I feel more strongly about that than any individual candidate. I'd like Obama or Edwards to win the nomination, but I'd still prefer Hillary over Giuliani, Romney, Thompson, or probably McCain. (The last one is the only one I'd seriously consider, though I'd still most likely end up voting for Hillary if that were the choice.)

So, these "definitely NOT"s are scary and dangerous.

However, I do acknowledge that the "definitely NOT" situation is changing. Early on, Hillary was the queen of "definitely NOT". That was supported by both polls and anecdotal evidence, what people said here (see Baldimo's recent interesting post on Obama) and IRL. However, I just went looking for a poll that showed how her competitors for the Dem nomination fare there, and was surprised to see that Edwards scored higher than her. I didn't find a recent poll that included Obama.

Code: Definitely Would Would Consider Definitely Would Not Unsure
Hillary Clinton 9/27-30/07 30 28 41 1

John Edwards 9/27-30/07 16 38 43 3


http://www.pollingreport.com/wh08gen.htm

Is this temporary? Is she get the nomination, will she be a more vulnerable target than Edwards or Obama? Will it be easier for her Republican opponent to ratchet up those "definitely will NOT vote for Hillary" responses? I'm not sure.

Her campaign thus far is doing much better than I thought it could -- I remain skeptical that she'd be able to carry that through a general election, but it's possible.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Oct, 2007 12:44 pm
OOh I can never make those tables work...! I tried it in preview and everything.

Basically, Hillary's "Definitely would NOT" percentage was 41%, and Edwards' was 43%. Probably within the margin of error, but still. Definitely curious about where Obama falls in there, will keep looking.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Oct, 2007 12:51 pm
...there's also the question of how much of an outlier this 41% poll is. In trying to find something with Obama, I'm finding a whole lot of polls that show Hillary leading the "definitely would NOT"s (among Democrats) at 46%, 47%...
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Oct, 2007 01:01 pm
Here we go:

Quote:
Forty-one percent of those surveyed said they definitely would not vote for Clinton in the general election if she were the Democratic nominee, one of the lowest "reject rates" among the leading candidates in either of the two major parties. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) registers the lowest definite opposition, at 39 percent.


Washington Post
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Oct, 2007 01:25 pm
sozobe wrote:
Here we go:

Quote:
Forty-one percent of those surveyed said they definitely would not vote for Clinton in the general election if she were the Democratic nominee, one of the lowest "reject rates" among the leading candidates in either of the two major parties. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) registers the lowest definite opposition, at 39 percent.


Washington Post


And 2% has to be within the margin of error or very close to that. As I noted here or on another thread, all three of the leading Republican candidates gain higher numbers than Hillary (that's from Olbermann quoting Rasmussen, I believe). His point, quoting these figures, was to put some perspective to the "Hillary is too polarizing" meme.

And it is the case that these Dem numbers are changing in Hillary's favor (though that does not change how Obama is regarded, of course).

I'm with you, soz, on the notion that winning this election is of greater importance than who out of the three win the nomination...all look bright, sane, and competent to me.

Look...maybe I'll drop this issue (at least for now). Goodness knows, I'd hate to sound arrogant. But for God's sake, if we consider the number of elections we have all seen in our lifetimes in western nations and then consider how few women have managed to achieve national leadership positions, I don't know how we can think about that fact without concluding that there is a bunch of stuff going on below the level of consciousness for most of us.

And nimh, may your mother get black bug.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Oct, 2007 01:35 pm
Hi Soz, yes I imagined you would share my feelings..

I do apologise to Blatham for the tone of that post, though. The real-life emotion that the sarcastic opening paras expressed was merely annoyance - ok an exasperated kind of annoyance, but still - not hostile bitterness as it may have seemed. And the issue I take with Blatham's point is purely intellectual, not personal - he's a good guy, really.

blatham wrote:
Take, "she's too ambitious". Is that a notion you've entertained? What are the negative notions about her personality that you have entertained. Could you state them?

No, "too ambitious" is not one of my beefs with Hillary - that kind of comes with the territory of being a presidential candidate. Though the criticisms of Hillary that Soz, Snood and I have overlap, they are not identical.

Aside from the more important issues I have with Hillary's politics, my qualms about her personality include that I see her as opportunistic (as expressed in her Iraq war vote); too much focused on and inclined to elite power politics (a network overly based on long-standing ties of personal loyalty and power positions in machine politics) rather than encouraging and using a mass grassroots movement; a fear in fact of too large and empowered a grassroots movement as being too uncontrollable; in short, little democratic instinct of the kind that Dean, Obama and Edwards do demonstrate; too much focused on Beltway conventional wisdoms, which leads to cowardice in taking political positions (either by failing entirely, like with Iraq, or stepping in only when others have paved the way, like with health care); too intrigued and impressed by moneyed power elites (see last para in this piece I posted of Klein's); having learnt the wrong lessons from the strife of the 90s and now being overly cautious, temperamentally, and wedded to triangulation as strategy; evasive (as illustrated in the last Dem debate); unscrupulous.

Interestingly -- and in immediate contradiction with your argument that the negative impressions of her personality are due to subconscious prejudice against powerful women -- I have almost all of the above qualms about Hillary about Bill Clinton too. From overly cautious to unscrupulous to too wedded to Beltway elite politics.. practically the whole thing.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Oct, 2007 01:39 pm
Quote:
Look...maybe I'll drop this issue (at least for now). Goodness knows, I'd hate to sound arrogant. But for God's sake, if we consider the number of elections we have all seen in our lifetimes in western nations and then consider how few women have managed to achieve national leadership positions, I don't know how we can think about that fact without concluding that there is a bunch of stuff going on below the level of consciousness for most of us.


Eek... but that's where I agree with nimh, too. This is not as zero-sum as you seem to make it. Of course, there is sexism. Worse in the past, but still around. But it's too simplistic to say that if you do not want Hillary to be the Democratic nominee, it's because of sexism.

There has been plenty of discrimination against Mormons. That's why you don't like Romney, right?

Or even Richardson -- surely if you don't favor him over the other Dems it is because of your latent fear of Hispanics. Shame on you, buying into the Republican smear machine! They'd do anything to keep a Mexican out of the White House.

You see?

Again, yes, smears occur, and yes, they're frequently damaging. But the fact that a smear is aimed at someone doesn't mean that they automatically become someone to support. One must look through and around the smears -- and when I do, there are things about Hillary that give me pause. Just as there are things about Richardson and Romney.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Oct, 2007 01:42 pm
Oh sure, start sucking up now after you've hurt me.

Annoyance is fine. It's a response I see commonly on the people around me and leads me to believe I should be in other company..the obvious conclusion.

Look, I do share many of those concerns re her political maneuvering. And likewise, that applies to Bill as well. I am considerably further left than what either of them appear to be. And there are serious moral questions about all sorts of things that went on under Bill (of the typical corporate friendly/military happy variety that the US can be guilty of).

But there are a couple of things I'd argue from what you've written last. I'm out the door now and when I get back later today, I'll give you a spanking.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Oct, 2007 08:14 pm
blatham wrote:
But...but...it is the case that the general perceptions of what is real about Hillary's personality is changing. Something like "hey, she's not so bad/cold/bitchy after all" is clearly going on in many people's noggins.


By the way, I'm not even sure this actually holds.

It's possible, of course, that Hillary's increasing lead in the primary polls stems from a sleigh of voters having found out that she is, in fact, kind, gentle and forthright. Possible - but I'd say that it could just as much be the case that impressions of Hillary have remained roughly the same, but that in the context of today's politics, some of the things that had seemed like bad traits, now look more favourable.

By ways of anecdotal evidence, check this interesting experiment in a recent (September) Pew Research Center poll - I posted the graph in the Hillary, Obama, Edwards thread before. They asked respondents: "as I say some words or phrases, tell me whether John Edwards, Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton comes to mind." (The names were read in random order.)


http://people-press.org/reports/images/356-1.gif

(Click image for more info)

Note that on no less than six out of nine counts, Obama outdoes Hillary. Even Edwards, who comes off quite badly in this poll, does better on two counts. Both Obama and Edwards are deemed more friendly and even-tempered than Hillary. Obama is also deemed considerably more optimistic, honest and energetic.

And yet, Hillary outdoes the two others by streetlengths in the primary polls. And yet, even in this word association polls, Hillary would clearly win if you would add all the numbers together. The reason is almost exclusively that she has an enormous advantage on just two traits. She is Tough. And she is Smart.

Perhaps thats more whats going on. Its not that voters are finding out that she is really not the agressive and shrewd political animal her critics have tried to make her out to be; perhaps she's in the lead because voters still think that's what she is - and that's what they want at this moment in time.

As Ezra Klein speculated in that blog item I posted on the Obama thread:

Quote:


Or, as Michael Crowley put it more crudely still on TNR:

Quote:
I'm wondering whether there's another problem with Obama's campaign theme: namely, that Democratic primary voters don't particularly want hope right now. They want revenge! Heads on stakes! As much satisfying payback as possible. [..] Hillary [also] tries to avoid partisan rhetoric, it's true, but everyone remembers how she faced down "the vast right-wing conspiracy", so she carries those credentials automatically.


Furthermore, now that I'm talking polls, a relativating note seems in place here as well. Because it's true that Hillary is now clearly in the lead in the primary polls. But among the overall electorate, she still at least has no advantage over Obama or Edwards. And there is also little sign of the electorate overall having changing its opinion about her much since the campaign begun.

For example, Hillary's favourability rating is now at 53%, 55% or 47%, according to recent polls by CNN, Pew and Gallup respectively, taken in August or September. Her unfavourable rating was at 39%, 39% and 48% respectively. Compare with Edwards (favourables at 47-49%, unfavourables 29-36%) and Obama (favourables at 48-52%, unfavourables 26-29%), and you see her favourables are no higher than for the other two, whereas her unfavourables are still significantly higher.

Moreover, if you were right, you would expect either Hillary's favourables to be going up, or her unfavourables to be going down. But none of these three polls show any sign of this happening at all - the numbers are wholly stable. (See http://pollingreport.com/C2.htm#Hillary)

Meanwhile, in the hypothetical match-ups that pollsters ask respondents about - would you vote Hillary or McCain; Edwards or Giuliani; etc - she is now basically tied with Edwards and Obama when the Republican in the race is Fred Thompson, Romney or McCain. When it's Giuliani, Obama is behind, on average, but Edwards does as well as Hillary if not better.

In those polls, for sure, Hillary did move upwards in the last few months. But only to the extent that a) she has almost but not quite yet caught up with Edwards and b) she now enjoys a slim lead against Giuliani of just 3-4%, when half a year ago she was behind by the same margin. That's good and worth noting, but hardly evidence of some broad revelation people are having about Hillary either.
0 Replies
 
talk72000
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Oct, 2007 11:44 pm
After going thru a DUMB president Americans feel they need a SMART president whether it's a he or a she is beside the point, to undo the damage done by Darth War_dodger.
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talk72000
 
  1  
Reply Sat 6 Oct, 2007 11:58 pm
By the way if Hilary is a Republican in Democrat clothing then a Congress with 2/3 majority is an absolute necessity to block behind-the-scene Bill Clinton political moves which he did as president that devastated Democrats such as the media merger and business merger that created a Republican media and corporate funding of Darth War_dodger's presidential campaigns.
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