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Will Hillary Give Obama The Vice Pres Nod?

 
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Sep, 2007 08:57 pm
sozobe wrote:
ehBeth wrote:
there's already a bet goin' on this somewhere around here ...


That was me, and we had terms and everything. (It was just offer, not offer-and-accept, if I remember right.)



something was accepted - there was a money-holder and adjudicator as well
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Sep, 2007 09:09 pm
snood wrote:
Blah, Blah blah.

Rolling Eyes
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Sep, 2007 09:11 pm
snood wrote:
blatham wrote:
ten bucks?


If we can clarify, can I get some of that? No way she'll offer it to him (if she's the nominee), and no way he'll take it.

So, is the bet that she'll offer it, or that she'll offer, and he'll accept?


I figure she'll offer and he'll accept. You may enter the brave betting fray with me separately. 10 bucks canadian.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Sep, 2007 09:13 pm
ehBeth wrote:
sozobe wrote:
ehBeth wrote:
there's already a bet goin' on this somewhere around here ...


That was me, and we had terms and everything. (It was just offer, not offer-and-accept, if I remember right.)



something was accepted - there was a money-holder and adjudicator as well


sheesh...I'd quite forgotten that earlier bet with soz. Normally, I don't forget bets until I've lost them.
0 Replies
 
eoe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Sep, 2007 09:43 pm
nimh wrote:
Obama's umfeld appears to be almost exclusively pulled from the progressive strand that was critical already of Bill Clinton, and was against the war from the start.


Wrong. Much of Obama's constituency probably would have gone with Hillary, the most progressive, if Obama wasn't in the race. Many Obama supporters love Bill so that really has nothing to do with it. But after eight years of Bush & Co, it's time for bigtime change, as much change as we can possibly get, which was Hillary until Obama stepped in. That's why this race is so exciting! Don't you just love it? I sure do.
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snood
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Sep, 2007 11:03 pm
blatham wrote:
snood wrote:
blatham wrote:
ten bucks?


If we can clarify, can I get some of that? No way she'll offer it to him (if she's the nominee), and no way he'll take it.

So, is the bet that she'll offer it, or that she'll offer, and he'll accept?


I figure she'll offer and he'll accept. You may enter the brave betting fray with me separately. 10 bucks canadian.


Yup. If Hill offers the VP to Obama, you win 10 bucks canadian. If not, you pay me 10 Amurkin dollars.
0 Replies
 
Mame
 
  1  
Reply Mon 24 Sep, 2007 11:08 pm
Which would be the same money, only not as pretty Smile

This is a tough bet. I don't know the players as well as you Amurkins, obviously, but ... Hilary has an ego, but she's also not stupid. Better to keep your enemies close, I'm thinking.

I'm betting $10 Cdn/Am. that she offers him the job.

Now, him taking it is another bet...

If he doesn't, he's stupid... and I don't know this guy from Adam, so I can't even venture a guess....

who's betting on that portion?

And who pays me when Hil makes the offer?
0 Replies
 
snood
 
  1  
Reply Tue 25 Sep, 2007 04:49 am
Mame wrote:
Which would be the same money, only not as pretty Smile

This is a tough bet. I don't know the players as well as you Amurkins, obviously, but ... Hilary has an ego, but she's also not stupid. Better to keep your enemies close, I'm thinking.

I'm betting $10 Cdn/Am. that she offers him the job.

Now, him taking it is another bet...

If he doesn't, he's stupid... and I don't know this guy from Adam, so I can't even venture a guess....

who's betting on that portion?



And who pays me when Hil makes the offer?


See, the way a bet works is, you have to make one with someone in particular. Then between you two who have contracted thusly, one who loses pays the other who wins.

Also,I know you say you're not familiar with the players and all, but if you haven't even watched closely enough to acertain whether or not Obama's "stupid" - I don't think you've been watching closely enough for your opinions to make any sense. One wouldn't have to watch very closely to figure that one out.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 25 Sep, 2007 04:57 am
eoe wrote:
nimh wrote:
Obama's umfeld appears to be almost exclusively pulled from the progressive strand that was critical already of Bill Clinton, and was against the war from the start.


Wrong. Much of Obama's constituency probably would have gone with Hillary, the most progressive, if Obama wasn't in the race. Many Obama supporters love Bill so that really has nothing to do with it.

Sorry for the misunderstanding. With umfeld I didnt mean Obama's primary voters and grassroots supporters, but his advisers and experts, the people with whom he hammers out policies and strategies.

The people Obama has around him are from a quite separate strand and tradition of the Democratic party than those with whom Hillary works. Take foreign policy: Hillary has DLC / New Democrat / interventionist types around her who now criticize the war in Iraq but used to be for it. Obama is working with a more progressive group that was against the war from the start, and that more generally has some history in already criticizing Bill Clinton as well.

I see that as one more reason that it's unlikely that either would choose the other as Veep, as I think the Veep is usually drawn from within the own, trusted strand/circle (Kerry/Edwards being an exception).
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 25 Sep, 2007 06:19 am
ehBeth wrote:
sozobe wrote:
ehBeth wrote:
there's already a bet goin' on this somewhere around here ...


That was me, and we had terms and everything. (It was just offer, not offer-and-accept, if I remember right.)



something was accepted - there was a money-holder and adjudicator as well


Thanks Beth!

I was referring to whether Obama would have to accept the VP offer, or whether Hillary merely offering it would be enough (or vice versa), in terms of the bet. I definitely accepted the bet.

And it was merely offering:

sozobe wrote:
Yeah, I think that if Obama chooses Hillary and she declines, Blatham would still win. The point is what the respective candidates and their advisors would decide about who would be the best running mate.


This is what I said there, for this new discussion:

sozobe wrote:
We've gone over this about 10 gazillion times, but I really don't think either would choose the other for a ticket. Too many of the same positives, too many of the same liabilities. I think they'd each be going for balance. (i.e. someone old, white, and male, with scads of experience. Southern state preferred. Biden maybe, I dunno.)

I think either one will pretty handily get most or all of the support that the other one enjoyed; I don't think there will be a lot of Hillary fans who refuse to vote for Obama if he gets the nomination, for example. So I don't think they need to join forces in that respect.
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revel
 
  1  
Reply Tue 25 Sep, 2007 07:55 am
I go with those who say Hillary won't offer it; but I think Obama would accept it if it was offered. The reason I don't think she will offer it is because she probably has had her VP planned out a long time ago. Who it is I don't have a clue. I wish it would be Biden; he may come off as a smooth talker; but he seems to know a lot about foreign affairs. I don't have anything against Obama; but I prefer someone who has more experience in foreign affairs. No offense.
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Roxxxanne
 
  1  
Reply Tue 25 Sep, 2007 08:13 am
I am hearing that her pick might be Wesley Clark.
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maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Tue 25 Sep, 2007 08:29 am
Roxxxanne wrote:
I am hearing that her pick might be Wesley Clark.


I don't know why she'd pick a general. It's not like she a dove in the democratic party....she's more hawkish than any of the other democratic candidates bar none.
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mysteryman
 
  1  
Reply Tue 25 Sep, 2007 04:18 pm
She would do better offering it to Evan Bayh.
I would still find it almost impossible to vote for her,but with him on the ticket there is a better chance of me voting for her.
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 25 Sep, 2007 05:56 pm
He recently endorsed her, and my first thought was "he wants the VP slot."

Could happen.
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mysteryman
 
  1  
Reply Tue 25 Sep, 2007 05:59 pm
sozobe wrote:
He recently endorsed her, and my first thought was "he wants the VP slot."

Could happen.


As I have said before, even though I am a conservative I could and would gladly vote for Evan Bayh for president.

With him on the ticket as the VP, I would actually think about voting for Hillary.
Without him on the ticket,there is no way I vote for Hillary.
0 Replies
 
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Tue 25 Sep, 2007 06:03 pm
There was mention of this before on a2k, and obama said no, but that was then, whenever it was.

I did a bit of a search, but I'm not your most patient person.
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sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Tue 25 Sep, 2007 06:06 pm
That's familiar -- I think it was that Obama was saying he didn't want to be anyone's VP. That he wanted the presidential slot or nothing. Not sure though.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 25 Sep, 2007 07:33 pm
What I dont see is why an Obama supporter would want him to take the Veep position.

For sure, there is the obvious: you're next in line for succession. But it's not much of a guarantee.

I mean, what are the scenarios?

    [b] 1)[/b] Hillary is elected, but either through her own faults or through circumstances beyond her reach (global economic crisis, what not) becomes impopular in her first term. Unless she completely flames out though*, she'll still get to stand for reelection and loses. Precedents: Bush Sr., Carter, Hoover. Consequence: Obama is left to wait till 2016, with one negative association down. [b] 2) [/b]Hillary is elected, and remains popular. She is reelected, and Obama remains in the waiting room till 2016; but by then people feel it is time for a change and pass him over for the opposing party. Precedents: Clinton, Eisenhower ... and hopefully Bush Jr. Consequence: Obama only gets his next chance in 2020. [b] 3) [/b]Hillary is elected, and remains popular. She is reelected, and Obama remains in the waiting room till 2016; with the governing Democrats still popular and/or the Republicans in disarray, Obama is elected as her successor. Precedents: Reagan, Roosevelt. Consequence: Obama in '16

So that's, like, a chance of one in three that Obama actually does get to inherit the Presidency as Veep - and even then probably only in 2016*.

In the meantime, he'd be left figuratively twiddling his thumbs in a more or less ceremonial position with little power - Cheney is very much the exception of the rule, after all, and Hillary is not exactly likely to follow GWB's example in ceding so much power to the Veep.

Doesnt seem like a position that would suit him - he's a doer, a negotiator, a man who wants to get things done.

No, if and when Hillary is nominated and then would go on to win the Presidential elections, Obama I think would be much better served in a powerful position where he actually gets to wield authority, negotiate legislation, build coalitions.

He'd be perfect in Harry Reid's job, but I suppose he's not eligible for that because he won't be in the Senate. High administration post then, Justice or Education or Health (Hillary wont give him the State Dept, and I dont see him at the Pentagon somehow..).


--
* Variation 1b) would have her burning out so starkly that she wouldnt even stand for reelection. The only precedents in the last 80 years would be LBJ and Truman, but both were effectively in a second term already, and only in LBJ's case did the Veep get to run instead (and he lost).
0 Replies
 
talk72000
 
  1  
Reply Sun 30 Sep, 2007 08:45 pm
Evan Bayh, Joe Biden and Wesley Clark make good candidates for VP for their international experience. Clark would come in handy for war related affairs as well.
0 Replies
 
 

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