SECOND A2K STRAW POLL White House 2008

Heh :wink: . That fits with what Fishin' was saying about the test being skewed toward the more extreme candidates.

Also, looking at people's results coming past (and ours here at home), I'm getting the feeling that the test is not shaking out fairly for Obama..

In the first A2K straw poll half a year ago we got 80 votes. This time we are now exactly at 40 votes, so that seems a good moment to stack up.

- The Republican share of the vote has decreased. In the first poll 30% of the votes were for Republicans; now it's 21% (9 votes)

- Just like last time, the Republican vote is rather evenly split. Then, it was 5-6 votes for Giuliani, McCain and Gingrich each and just 3 for Romney. Now, its 2-3 votes for Giuliani, Thompson and McCain each, and zero for Romney.

- The frustration that had more than 1 in 4 Republican votes go for "Republican - other" last time seems to have dissipated; now there's just 1 vote for that category.

- In the Democratic field there's been something of a seachange. Then, Obama led all with 24 out of 54 Democratic votes (or 45% of the Dem vote). Hillary trailed far behind with just 11 votes (or 20% of the Dem vote). Now, Hillary has not just caught up with Obama, but overtaken him, 11 to 10 votes. Meaning they both have about 35% of the Dem vote (a total of 31).

- Edwards remains pretty much unchanged in third position: 8 out of 54 Dem votes then, 4 out of 31 now, and in both cases exactly 10% of the total vote. Richardson, meanwhile, seems to be as much of a non-starter on A2K as Romney is on the Republican side, with just 1 vote.

- Edwards is actually overtaken by the "Democratic - other" category; but that category now includes Al Gore, who in the first poll was a separate option. While non-candidate Gore and the minor Dems then pooled 11 votes (or 17% of the Dem vote) together, now the "other Dem" category has 5 votes, or 16% of the Dem vote, by itself. I suppose most of the "other" now is Kucinich though.

time for a bump

Thanks for the analysis.

What I would be most interested in finding out is whether this poll represents different people's opinions -- people who had the same opinions the first time around, but didn't vote in the first poll -- or whether it represents a shift in individuals' opinions.

So, anyone care to say whether they changed their minds from the first poll, and if so why?

(I haven't -- Obama then, Obama now.)

I voted Dem - Other the first time, with Richardson in mind... over him now.
This time I voted the same, with Kucinich in mind.. based on what I've seen on looking quickly re people's quotes re Iran.

Realistically, by the time the primary rolls around, I'll probably vote one of the big three, and, given that, my take today is that would be for Edwards.

Identical result to mine.

By the way, P, Lola and I recently visited dyslexia and dianne. We'd all love to see you again, as the opportunity might arise.

Rove has just written an op ed for the WSJ attacking Hillary's health care proposals. That makes two recent attacks from him directed at Hillary. My guess is that he considers her the likely opposition.

My hits were pretty strange too:

Texas Representative Ron Paul (R) 85.71% Former Alaska Senator Mike Gravel (D) - 69.64% Ohio Representative Dennis Kucinich (D) - 69.64% New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson (D) - 46.43%

I wouldn't vote for either of them for president, my weakness for Paul notwithstanding.

Hmmm...

Says I should vote for

Well trhat seems about right..

BUMP

You don't have to bump a featured discussion... it isn't going anywhere.

Cycloptichorn

I moved from Rep. (other) to Rep. (McCain), though I could easily have gone Rep. (other) again. Same reasoning as on the first thread.

Yeah it is - it's going to the top of the New Posts page. Most posters use that page rather than the individual forums' pages to navigate. (Is what I remember from some thread about it.)

Really? I've always used the 'Your Posts' link in the upper left of the page. More relevant...

Cycloptichorn

Same holds for "Your Posts" - featured or not, if nobody posts the thread slips down, and bumping brings it back up.

(Except that with the "Your posts" thing it doesnt matter of course - people who have already posted here have probably also already voted.)

Given the numbers at pollingreport.com today, I shoulda gone with Thompson for the primary, as the best option (IMNSHO - not because I like Thompson, so that'd be a different strategy) would be to end up with Thompson and Edwards as the two choices at the end of the day.

bethie said

Please no, god. A year of manly-man versus girly-man. I couldn't take it.

Best odds of Dems winning (at this stage of the polling).

You don't think Obama-Thompson would be a better 'odds of winning' scenario?

Cycloptichorn