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Cops Suspect Parents In Missing British Girl Case

 
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jul, 2008 01:13 pm
The proper use of shunning does not require a legal ruling of guilt. I think that almost all of us are glad of that when we have a person such as OJ living amongst us. Maybe the McCanns will be treated the same way, it is up the the Brits to decide.
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jul, 2008 03:06 pm
you really cant see can you moleye10?
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jul, 2008 03:21 pm
Steve 41oo wrote:
you really cant see can you moleye10?

insults don't advance your point. Got anything else?
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jul, 2008 03:29 pm
see, sorry squint, at previous posts.
0 Replies
 
FreeDuck
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jul, 2008 05:04 pm
hawkeye10 wrote:
The proper use of shunning does not require a legal ruling of guilt. I think that almost all of us are glad of that when we have a person such as OJ living amongst us. Maybe the McCanns will be treated the same way, it is up the the Brits to decide.


OJ was tried and, though acquitted, the whole country (world) saw the evidence that was presented against him at trial. That's certainly not the case here. Any evidence that there might be against the McCann's has not been presented to the general public. What we have in the place of evidence is rumor and innuendo. People who shun others on the basis of rumor and innuendo are typically referred to as nasty harpies.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jul, 2008 05:10 pm
FreeDuck wrote:
hawkeye10 wrote:
The proper use of shunning does not require a legal ruling of guilt. I think that almost all of us are glad of that when we have a person such as OJ living amongst us. Maybe the McCanns will be treated the same way, it is up the the Brits to decide.


OJ was tried and, though acquitted, the whole country (world) saw the evidence that was presented against him at trial. That's certainly not the case here. Any evidence that there might be against the McCann's has not been presented to the general public. What we have in the place of evidence is rumor and innuendo. People who shun others on the basis of rumor and innuendo are typically referred to as nasty harpies.


good point. Except that we have more than rumor and innuendo. we also have knowledge of problems in the family, bizarre behaviour on the part of the parents, and a set of facts that put the odds on the parents. Evidence however, we have none of. Is this a basis for shunning? It was for the Ramseys in America, I suspect that it will also be for the McCanns.
0 Replies
 
FreeDuck
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jul, 2008 05:14 pm
And they were wrong to do it in America. I guess it's up to folks in the UK to decide whether they want to be in our company.

I haven't been following this thread so I don't know what behaviors and facts you are referring to, so I won't argue that. I'll just say that it's not at all obvious from my vantage point that they harmed their daughter other than by leaving her alone, and I personally would feel like a complete **** for heaping scorn onto the pain of losing a child.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jul, 2008 05:34 pm
FreeDuck wrote:
And they were wrong to do it in America. I guess it's up to folks in the UK to decide whether they want to be in our company.

I haven't been following this thread so I don't know what behaviors and facts you are referring to, so I won't argue that. I'll just say that it's not at all obvious from my vantage point that they harmed their daughter other than by leaving her alone, and I personally would feel like a complete **** for heaping scorn onto the pain of losing a child.


But what do you do when they claim that a stranger abducted their daughter and this happens so rarely anywhere that the odds are about zero that this happen in this case, and that when a child is killed it is normally the parents who did it, and that neighter the girl or the body have been found?? Throw this in with the facts as we know them, shake, and what do you get?

Quote:
The Facts
The most reliable research available indicates that there are only 100-130 cases of stranger abductions a year in the United States. These events are most frequently committed by males (86%) who are between the ages of 20 and 39 (57%). Again, the child was taken from an outdoor area in 54% of the cases but in 16% of the cases, the victim was abducted from his own yard or home. In the wider category of non-family abduction, NISMART found that 71% of the victims were taken from an outdoor area. In stereotypical kidnappings, less than 7% were taken from a store or mall. Stranger abduction events are usually committed for sexual purposes (49%) and in over 40% of the cases, the victim was murdered. That is in addition to the 4%, like Etan Patz in New York City, that have never been found.

The F.B.I. handled 93 cases of stranger abductions cases in 2001. That figure is actually a decrease from years past, especially during the 1980s when the average per year hovered around 200 incidents a year. Though the victim in most of these cases did not know the suspect, there was previous contact between them prior to the crime. This contact was usually a brief visual observation that took place while the suspect had a legitimate reason for being where he was. Those reasons included work related activities, such as a home delivery, a store clerk, a drive-by, in a park or sporting event. In over 85% of the cases, the child was kept within 50 miles of the abduction location and most frequently (28%), the victim was held in the home of the suspect.

The duration of a kidnapping episode was usually less than 24 hours (90%). Only less than 10% lasted longer than one day. Non-family abductions showed the same patterns though 30% lasted less than even 3 hours. The most dramatic difference between non-family abductions and kidnappings was in the treatment of the victim. In 99% of non-family abductions, the child was returned alive. In kidnappings, a safe return occurred only 57% of the time. Ominously, the child suffered a sexual or physical assault in an astounding 86% of the stereotypical kidnappings. These findings powerfully emphasize the extreme danger of these events and the urgency of police interaction as soon as possible.

Stereotypical kidnapping, in which a child is abducted and either assaulted or held for ransom, is a crime that first appeared in the United States in the late 19th century. During the 1920s, it became entrenched in the public consciousness when a series of child abduction cases terrified parents across the country.

http://www.trutv.com/library/crime/criminal_mind/psychology/child_abduction/4.html

Quote:
FBI crime stats show that in 1999 parents were responsible for 57% of these murders. Even though women commit less than 13% of all violent crime, they are responsible for about 50% of all parental murders.Some prefer a more hands-on approach like beating, drowning, shaking, strangling or suffocation. Others will resort to poisoning, stabbing or exposure to the elements. In 1999 351 kids under 5 were killed by a parent!

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/7612/parents_who_murder_their_children.html?cat=48
in America only 130 stranger abductions of children of all ages a year, almost always they are found alive, verses 351 5 and under killed each year by a parent. We have not found this kid so likely she is dead, which scenario is more likely to have taken place?
0 Replies
 
FreeDuck
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jul, 2008 06:03 pm
hawkeye10 wrote:

But what do you do when they claim that a stranger abducted their daughter and this happens so rarely anywhere that the odds are about zero that this happen in this case,


The odds aren't zero because it happens. Odds are that you won't get struck by lightening, yet if you told me you were struck by lightening I'd believe you.

Quote:
and that when a child is killed it is normally the parents who did it,


I don't know if 57% (according to your stats) constitutes "normally". Do you know how we know that a majority of murdered children are killed by their parents? Because parents are easy to catch. It is a very complex thing to hide something like murdering your own child.

Quote:
and that neighter the girl or the body have been found?? Throw this in with the facts as we know them, shake, and what do you get?


I get nothing. What do you get?

Quote:
Quote:
The Facts
The most reliable research available indicates that there are only 100-130 cases of stranger abductions a year in the United States. These events are most frequently committed by males (86%) who are between the ages of 20 and 39 (57%). Again, the child was taken from an outdoor area in 54% of the cases but in 16% of the cases, the victim was abducted from his own yard or home. In the wider category of non-family abduction, NISMART found that 71% of the victims were taken from an outdoor area. In stereotypical kidnappings, less than 7% were taken from a store or mall. Stranger abduction events are usually committed for sexual purposes (49%) and in over 40% of the cases, the victim was murdered. That is in addition to the 4%, like Etan Patz in New York City, that have never been found.

The F.B.I. handled 93 cases of stranger abductions cases in 2001. That figure is actually a decrease from years past, especially during the 1980s when the average per year hovered around 200 incidents a year. Though the victim in most of these cases did not know the suspect, there was previous contact between them prior to the crime. This contact was usually a brief visual observation that took place while the suspect had a legitimate reason for being where he was. Those reasons included work related activities, such as a home delivery, a store clerk, a drive-by, in a park or sporting event. In over 85% of the cases, the child was kept within 50 miles of the abduction location and most frequently (28%), the victim was held in the home of the suspect.

The duration of a kidnapping episode was usually less than 24 hours (90%). Only less than 10% lasted longer than one day. Non-family abductions showed the same patterns though 30% lasted less than even 3 hours. The most dramatic difference between non-family abductions and kidnappings was in the treatment of the victim. In 99% of non-family abductions, the child was returned alive. In kidnappings, a safe return occurred only 57% of the time. Ominously, the child suffered a sexual or physical assault in an astounding 86% of the stereotypical kidnappings. These findings powerfully emphasize the extreme danger of these events and the urgency of police interaction as soon as possible.

Stereotypical kidnapping, in which a child is abducted and either assaulted or held for ransom, is a crime that first appeared in the United States in the late 19th century. During the 1920s, it became entrenched in the public consciousness when a series of child abduction cases terrified parents across the country.

http://www.trutv.com/library/crime/criminal_mind/psychology/child_abduction/4.html

Quote:
FBI crime stats show that in 1999 parents were responsible for 57% of these murders. Even though women commit less than 13% of all violent crime, they are responsible for about 50% of all parental murders.Some prefer a more hands-on approach like beating, drowning, shaking, strangling or suffocation. Others will resort to poisoning, stabbing or exposure to the elements. In 1999 351 kids under 5 were killed by a parent!

http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/7612/parents_who_murder_their_children.html?cat=48
in America only 130 stranger abductions of children of all ages a year, almost always they are found alive, verses 351 5 and under killed each year by a parent. We have not found this kid so likely she is dead, which scenario is more likely to have taken place?


Aside from the fact that your facts are from the US and this child disappeared from Europe, it still doesn't tell us anything about this particular case. According to your stats more than 40% of children abducted by strangers are murdered and 4% are never found -- that doesn't sound like "almost always they are found alive" to me.

I don't know if these parents hurt their child. I don't know them. But there certainly is not any evidence that they did hurt her, and it's difficult to imagine a scenario where they kill their child while on vacation and expertly hide or get rid of the body AND coordinate their stories perfectly AND get rid of all physical evidence AND.... you get my point. Statistics of the sort you post are useful for evaluating what the major risks are to missing children and for police to determine who to question and where to look when a child disappears, but they're not very useful in determining innocence or guilt in any specific case. Otherwise we'd be watching the trial of Jessica Lunsford's father as we speak.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jul, 2008 06:10 pm
I maintain that the odds based upon the observed behaviour of the general population is not enough to criminally convict individuals of a specific crime, though it is enough to justify shunning if the odds are strong enough that we can be almost certain that we know what happened.

Could they be innocent? Yes, but it is very unlikely.
0 Replies
 
FreeDuck
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jul, 2008 06:13 pm
I don't think you even come close to the level of certainty required.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jul, 2008 06:21 pm
FreeDuck wrote:
I don't think you even come close to the level of certainty required.


You might be right, let's see what the brits decide.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 Jul, 2008 06:43 pm
Quote:
Kate and Gerry McCann 'could be charged with neglecting Madeleine'

By Mail On Sunday Reporter
Last updated at 11:43 PM on 05th July 2008


It is understood detectives have submitted their final report on the case to the country's attorney general.


Kate and Gerry McCann could be charged with neglect, even though there is no evidence to suggest they were involved in Madeleine disappearance



Although it concludes there is no evidence that the couple were involved in the disappearance of their daughter shortly before her fourth birthday, it leaves the McCanns open to charges of abandoning Madeleine and their twins Sean and Amelie, then two, in their holiday apartment in Praia da Luz on May 3 last year, according to Portuguese newspapers`


Madeleine went missing from the Praia da Luz holiday apartment last May
A judicial source told the newspaper Correio da Manha: 'If it was a case of abduction, as the parents themselves argue, it was they who created the necessary conditions for that to take place.'

Last night, the McCanns' spokesman said: 'This is the first we have heard of this. Any charges would be vigorously contested.'

The McCanns are 'reluctantly' taking Leicestershire Constabulary to the High Court tomorrow to make it hand over any evidence it collected during liaisons with its Portuguese counterparts in the hunt for Madeleine.It is believed that the force refused to open its files to the McCanns, who believe British police may have received calls from members of the public which could be helpful to private detectives working for the family
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1032414/Kate-Gerry-McCann-charged-neglecting-Madeleine.html?ITO=1490

It is worth pointing out that the british police are also behaving as if they think that the parents did it, we are not talking about only the Portuguese police who are convinced.
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Mon 7 Jul, 2008 05:36 am
Hawkeye wrote

Quote:
we also have knowledge of problems in the family, bizarre behaviour on the part of the parents, and a set of facts that put the odds on the parents.
.

Would you like to share this knowledge? Or is it just your little secret? So you have knowledge of problems in the McCann family which has a direct bearing on this case? What exactly?

You cant answer because you have no "knowledge" whatsoever.

You refer to bizarre behaviour by Kate and Gerry McCann. What bizarre behaviour? In what possible way have they acted in a bizarre manner except to go ape-**** with grief over the loss of their daughter?

You say we have "a set of facts that put the odds on the parents?" You dont understand how stupid that statement makes you look.

You quoted irrelevant statistics and used them as if they somehow make a case against the McCanns.

What facts? You have no facts.

It would be easy to accuse someone who claims to have "knowledge" and "facts" when they have nothing of the sort as a liar. But as your whole approach to this case seems to be based on your own prejudices and fantasies, I will give you the benefit of the doubt by describing your behaviour as simply delusional and bizarre.
0 Replies
 
hawkeye10
 
  1  
Reply Wed 9 Jul, 2008 06:54 pm
In the interest of fairness as it was me who brought up the Ramsey case:
Quote:
Prosecutor Says DNA Clears Ramseys

By THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Published: July 9, 2008
Filed at 6:27 p.m. ET

BOULDER, Colo. (AP) -- Prosecutors cleared JonBenet Ramsey's parents and brother Wednesday in the 1996 killing of the 6-year-old beauty queen, saying they were ''deeply sorry'' for putting the family under a cloud of suspicion that hung heavy for more than a decade.

New DNA tests, which focus on skin cells left behind from a mere touch, point to a mysterious outsider. They came too late to clear the name of JonBenet's mother, Patsy, who died of cancer in 2006.

''To the extent that we may have contributed in any way to the public perception that you might have been involved in this crime, I am deeply sorry,'' Boulder County District Attorney Mary Lacy wrote in a letter to the little girl's father, John Ramsey. ''No innocent person should have to endure such an extensive trial in the court of public opinion.''

Lacy said new ''touch DNA'' tests on skin cells that were left behind on JonBenet's long underwear point to an ''unexplained third party'' and not a member of the family.

John Ramsey, a software entrepreneur who now lives in Michigan, said Wednesday he is hopeful the killer will be found based on the DNA evidence.

''I think the people that are in charge of the investigation are focused on that, and that gives me a lot of comfort,'' he told KUSA-TV in Denver. He added: ''Certainly we are grateful that they acknowledged that we, based on that, certainly could not have been involved.''

For years after the slaying, tabloids and crime shows went after the couple, and Lacy's predecessor as district attorney, Alex Hunter, said in 1997 that the parents were under an ''umbrella of suspicion.'' News reports also cast suspicion on JonBenet's older brother, Burke, who was 9 when his sister was killed.

The suspicions outlived Patsy, who died at age 49 in Atlanta, where the family moved after JonBenet's death.

''My first thought was obviously I wish Patsy Ramsey was here with us to be able to at least share vindication of her family,'' said L. Lin Wood, an attorney for the Ramsey family. ''There are many people in this country, if not around the world, that also owe John and Patsy Ramsey and Burke Ramsey an apology.''

Early in the investigation, police found male DNA in a drop of blood on JonBenet's underwear and determined it was not from anyone in her family. But Lacy said investigators were unable to say who it came from and whether that person was the killer.

Then, late last year, prosecutors turned over long underwear JonBenet was wearing to the Bode Technology Group near Washington, which looked for ''touch DNA,'' or cells left behind where someone has touched something.

The lab has only been using this technology for about three years.

The laboratory found previously undiscovered genetic material on the sides of the girl's long underwear, where an attacker would have grasped the clothing to pull it down, authorities said. The DNA matched the genetic material found earlier.

Lacy said the presence of the same male DNA in three places on the girl's clothing convinced investigators it belonged to JonBenet's killer and had not been left accidentally by an innocent party.

''It is therefore the position of the Boulder District Attorney's Office that this profile belongs to the perpetrator of the homicide,'' she said in a statement. In her letter to the Ramseys, she said the DNA evidence ''has vindicated your family.''

She said investigators hope someday to find a DNA match in the ever-expanding national DNA databank.

Through a spokeswoman, Lacy declined to comment any further.

John Ramsey found his daughter's strangled and bludgeoned body in the basement of the family's home in Boulder on Dec. 26, 1996. Patsy Ramsey said she found a ransom note demanding $118,000 for her daughter.

Lacy had previously expressed doubts that the parents were involved. In 2003, a federal judge handling a defamation lawsuit in Atlanta involving the Ramseys said evidence in the case was more consistent with the theory that an intruder killed JonBenet, and Lacy said she agreed.

Less than two months after Patsy Ramsey died, the case appeared to blow wide open with the arrest in Thailand of John Mark Karr, a sometime teacher obsessed with the little girl's slaying. Karr made bizarre, detailed confessions to the killing, but authorities said DNA evidence showed he did not commit the crime.

http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/us/AP-JonBenet-Ramsey.html?_r=1&ref=us&oref=slogin
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Sat 12 Jul, 2008 10:17 am
In the interests of fairness I have to tell you the Ramsey case is totally irrelevant.
0 Replies
 
McTag
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Aug, 2008 06:42 am
Not seen Steve for a while. Greetings, Steve, wherever you are.

This from the paper today:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2008/aug/06/madeleinemccann.internationalcrime

"Anna Stam, who gave a statement to Dutch police in which she said that she had spoken to a girl aged three or four who had entered her party shop. She said that the girl came into the shop in early May last year with a man and a woman and two other children. The man - who "did not look like a nice person" - may have been speaking Portuguese but the woman spoke in English and told Stam they had a small circus in France.

Stam, 41, said she was at the back of the shop when the girl asked in English: "Do you know where my mummy is?" Stam replied that her mother was a little further back in the store but the child said: "She is not my mummy. She is a stranger, she took me from my mummy." Stam said that when she asked the girl where she last saw her mother, she said: "They took me from my holiday."


That sounds like an URGENT follow-up requirement to me. With a small French circus, of all things.
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Wed 6 Aug, 2008 07:36 am
Hi McTag

here before not here again for a while....Smile

This case is simply outrageous. I heard yesterday that a girl like Madeleine was spotted being carried in the street by a man who "might have been" Gerry McCann on the evening she was abducted...but the police DID NOT FOLLOW IT UP BECAUSE HER FATHER WAS IN A TAPAS BAR.

The whole thing just confirms my suspicions that the Portuguese were not interested in finding the girl, just in blaming the parents.
0 Replies
 
 

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