hodgepodge wrote:Let me ask all of you who think that "intelligent life coming about randomly is not possible" a question.
Chances of winning the lottery are very low.
So let's say you actually win the lottery, would you proceed to say, "Well the chances of me winning the lottery were very low, so I must not have won."
I ask that because that is exactly what you are saying about intelligent life.
No Hodge, that is not exactly what we are saying. In fact, it is not even close.
What I am saying is roughly analogous to the same person winning the lottery 6 times within her/his lifetime.
Assuming an honestly undirected chance selection of winning numbers each week, the probability of a given lottery ticket being a winner in my state's lottery's weekly pick are 1 chance in 10 billion = 10^(-10). The probability of buying 1 winning ticket out of say 1 million purchased over a lifetime would be 10^6 x [10^(-10)]^1 = 10^(-4). That's a poor way to invest: spend over a lifetime $1,000,000 at a $1 per ticket and have one chance in 10,000 of winning less than 100 times as much. But whatthehell, go for it. :wink:
What are the chances of winning 6 times with a purchase of 1 million?
10^6 x [10^(-10)]^6 = 10^(-54).
The chances of evolving one particular genome sequence (mouse or human) starting with the genome of the common ancestor to mice and humans, is much less than 10^(-1,000,000). At least six times in the history of evolution of life (e.g., 6 evolutionary epochs) on this planet, environmental disasters wiped out all fossil producing life for thousands of years. Nonetheless, evolution restarted and each time proceeded to evolve more intelligent life than had been evolved in the prior epoch that ended with the previous disaster. That's hardly natural selection assisting evolution of us. Natural selection ultimately eliminated the more intelligent life, and did not foster it.
Sticking with the lottery analogy, let's buy 10^99 lottery tickets over a 10 billion year period (the age of the earth is alleged to be less than 5 billion years). That's a little less than 10^91 tickets (e.g., genome edits, mutations, whatever) purchased per second in our universe. Assuming there are 10^48 life evolving planets like our earth in our universe, then there were 10^43 tickets purchased per second per planet.
Yes of course I'm exaggerating with that 10^99 lottery ticket assumption.
. I'll also exaggerate the number of possible genome sequences to be no more than 10^1,000,000.
I'll even assume that the number of possible winning tickets was not 1 after each restart but was 10^1,000.
What are the chances of 6 restarts of the evolution of intelligence
on earth where in the case of each restart what was subsequently evolved was more intelligent than that which evolved prior to the restart?
10^43 x 10^1,000 x 10^[(-1,000,000)]^6 = 10^(-5,998,957).
What are the chances of 6 restarts of such evolution of intelligence
on some planet in the universe?
10^48 x 10^43 x 10^1,000 x 10^[(-1,000,000)]^6 = 10^(-5,998,909).
Undirected Chance plus Natural Selection are probably insufficient for evolving intelligence equal to or greater than human intelligence.
Shows what I know!
As a disinterested observer, I would have previously bet on evolution culminating with those hardy cockroaches at the end of the last epoch, if I actually believed
Undirected Chance plus Natural Selection were sufficient for evolving intelligence.
Why would evolution waste time with evolving more intelligent critters, if they are only going to get wiped out at the end of each evolution epoch? Yes, possibly humans might escape and survive the next major environmental disaster; or they won't. But if they don't, I'd now bet, if I could, on even more intelligent critters than humans being evolved in the next epoch. And that ain't merely
Undirected Chance plus Natural Selection evolution