parados wrote:None of the 3 lead to invasion being "necessary". Invasion was a choice but it was hardly "necessary."
We seem to have lost track of the point I was actually making, which is that the president has not done anything worthy of great censure. However, to change my intended subject and address these statements about the Iraq invasion, an evil dictator who has a history of declaring other countries to be his, and is known to have been working hard to develop nuclear bombs and bioweapons does create a clear and present danger. Should a man like Hussein amass a stockpile of these weapons, it could result in either the death of a million people through the actual use of nuclear and/or biological weapons, or he could use them to annex his neighbors again and become very much more powerful. Someone like Saddam Hussein is the one of the last men a sane person would want to be in charge of nukes and bioweapons. As for invasion being necessary, the primary methods available to insure verification that his development programs had stopped were negotiation, trade sanctions, or invasion. We had been trying the first two unsuccessfully for more than a decade. Had his development programs still existed, he might merely have been stalling to buy the time necessary to finish development of the weapons. This possibility posed too great a risk. We had tried peaceful measures for a very long time without obtaining any convincing evidence that his development programs had been dismantled, evidence he could easily have provided had he chosen to.
parados wrote:1. Ambiguous evidence doesn't lead to one choice. It leads to many choices. The primary choice would be to find better information.
Again, we had been trying for over a decade, and had he been continuing his former development programs in hiding, we might have had a finite time window of opportunity. Even a moderate probability of a monumental disaster must be considered to be very serious.
parados wrote:2. Saddam's long pattern of hiding evidence and obstructing inspectors doesn't lead to one choice. Again it leads to many. "Trust but verify" comes to mind. (Your arguments from 1997 were not current with the circumstances in 2003. One could as easily list Bush's drinking and driving charges from the 60's as evidence he still does it but it doesn't make it true. )
It does, however indicate that he had at one time, and possibly still had, an explicit intention of developing WMD secretly while deceiving inspectors, which made him someone who ought not to be trusted. An evil dictator having WMD is a bit more serious than an individual with a drinking problem. They do not pose comparable levels of risk.
parados wrote:3. Saddam having nukes is not an argument. It is a scare tactic. Anyone having nukes could lead to wrong consequences.
It is a very powerful argument since one single use of one single bomb could kill hundreds of thousands of people. "Anyone having nukes could lead to wrong consequences," but the idea that anyone with nukes poses the same danger as anyone else is absurd. Obviously a nuclear Saddam Hussein would be an incalculably greater risk than a nuclear Mother Teresa.
parados wrote:That doesn't lead to the necessary choice of imprisoning anyone and everyone that even mentions nukes.
No one has asserted the necessity of imprisoning anyone and everyone who even mentions nukes. Some of us have asserted the necessity of resolving the issue of a terribly evil ruler striving to achieve WMD and lying about it.
parados wrote:The lack of evidence of nukes does not lead to an invasion as the only necessary solution. In the 12 years since Saddam was ordered to destroy his WMD he had not annexed or threatened anyone. It appears that the current containment was working. Again, you use out of date facts to try to support your "necessary" invasion.
When there is a reasonable chance that someone like Saddam Hussein is continuing past efforts to create nukes and artificial plagues, it's a very drastic situation. The idea that someone with these weapons can be contained is the real idea that's out of date. How can you contain weapons that can be disassembled, smuggled into a target country, and detonated from within? I would just love to hear an answer to that.
parados wrote:Your case of events leading to invasion being "necessary" is logically faulty. In reality what the Bush administration did was take the LACK of evidence and used it to build its case. There was no hard evidence that supported Saddam having any chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons. There wasn't even much in the way of circumstantial evidence. There was no evidence that Saddam had plans to use these non existent weapons. There was no evidence that Saddam had plans to threaten or annex any neighboring countries. There was no evidence he had plans to vaporize cities. There was no hard evidence he had WMD. There was only a lack of confirmation that all his precursors, and possible delivery systems had been destroyed.
There is rarely evidence of plans, but this individual had tried to annex neighbors more than once, and was clearly a terribly, terribly evil man. There was indeed evidence that in the past he had had programs to develop these weapons, and had hid these programs and lied about them. Were someone like him to attain a group of these weapons and the means to make more, all of these things would be extremely realistic possibilities. Vaporizing cities is what nukes do, remember? His possible delivery systems had most certainly not been destroyed, since nuclear or biological weapons could be delivered in a suitcase or a mailed crate.