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CHIRAC, SARKOZY The French Right prepares for presidentials

 
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 5 May, 2007 12:48 pm
Quote:
French Vote Is Clear Left-Right Choice

Saturday May 5, 2007 7:16 PM


By ANGELA DOLAND

Associated Press Writer

PARIS (AP) - France's presidential election Sunday is a ground-breaker - a choice between an immigrant's son and an army officer's daughter, each offering a radically different vision of how to put a dispirited nation back on track.

Nicolas Sarkozy and Segolene Royal are both mavericks who changed the rules of French politics and energized an electorate hungry for change. Their rise marks a generational shift, because whoever wins will be the nation's first president born after World War II.

Of three final polls, taken Wednesday and Thursday, one put them even and two gave Sarkozy the lead.

Sarkozy, a conservative, wants to free up labor markets, make the French work longer hours and whip them into shape for the global marketplace. Royal is the Socialist Party candidate who would save France's generous welfare system from the lash of Sarkozy's ``neoconservative ideology.''

Both have ideas for to restoring national self-confidence, which lately has been battered by economic decline, unrest in France's immigrant slums, and shrinking clout in the new, united Europe which France once sought to lead.

Sarkozy doesn't hide his admiration for the United States, and Royal uses this to paint him as the yes man of American capitalism. Sarkozy calls the Iraq invasion a mistake. Royal calls it a catastrophe.

But France's perennial frictions with Washington never came up in the candidates' only debate, on Wednesday. Domestic affairs dominated the often peppery exchanges.

Unemployment is stuck above 8 percent, and the economy has stagnated at around 1.5 percent annual growth in the last five years. Youths in housing projects burned cars for three weeks in 2005, awakening France to the problem of a deeply discontented immigrant underclass.

Rioting flared again in March last year, this time against an effort to loosen hiring-and-firing rules in the labor market.

During President Jacques Chirac's 12 years in office, little reform was accomplished. What happens in the post-Chirac era matters deeply to the public, judging by voter engagement.

Turnout in the April 22 first-round vote was an unusually high 84 percent. And the two candidates, nicknamed Sarko and Sego, exemplify the feeling that a turning point has been reached.

Both are rebels who broke their parties' molds. Both are self-made. Sarkozy says his foreign roots - his father is Hungarian - hindered his ascent. Royal, an unmarried mother of four, says her gender hindered hers.

The resemblance stops there.

Sarkozy calls France's 35-hour work week ``an absurdity,'' and he wants to make overtime pay tax-free to encourage people to work more. Aged 52, he is the law-and-order candidate who, as interior minister, cracked down on drunk driving, crime and illegal immigration, and who promises tougher sentencing for repeat offenders.

He is intense, ambitious and blunt.

Visiting a crime-ridden slum in 2005, he called young delinquents ``scum'' and refused to apologize. He wants to create a ``Ministry of Immigration and National Identity,'' an idea that French liberals find sinister.

In a nation that treasures wine with its meals, he's a nondrinker.

Royal, 53, is already ``Madame la Presidente'' of the western French region she governs. A former environment minister, she often wears white. On the campaign trail she often talked about her four children, and appealed to women to vote for her simply because she is female. She wants to raise the minimum wage, create 500,000 state-funded starter jobs for youths and build 120,000 subsidized housing units a year. But she has had trouble convincing economists that France can afford it.

Where Sarkozy has talked of France needing a ``rupture'' with its welfarist ways, Royal believes the system is basically sound but needs fine-tuning.

Royal's camp says Sarkozy is too brutal to be president; Sarkozy's camp says her platform is fuzzy and her grasp of foreign affairs is too weak to lead a nuclear-armed nation.

In a fascinating race, full of twists and surprises, Wednesday's 2 hour debate was a high point.

Royal came out fighting in her last big chance to win over undecided voters, interrupting Sarkozy and attacking his record. Sarkozy tried to stay polite. When he demanded that Royal calm down and stop pointing her finger at him, she retorted: ``No, I will not calm down! I will not calm down!''

On Friday, the last day campaigning was allowed, Royal pulled out all the stops, warning that riots could break out again if Sarkozy is elected. Sarkozy retorted: ``She is not in a good mood this morning, it must be the polls.''

On Saturday, voters in France's overseas territories cast ballots, from the wind-swept islands of Saint Pierre and Miquelon off Canada's northeastern coast, to Martinique in the Caribbean, to French Polynesia in the Pacific. No results were to be released until polls close Sunday in mainland France.
Source
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 5 May, 2007 12:57 pm
Walter Hinteler wrote:
I've come to the conclusion that's impossible to speak/write with an American (especially a conservatibe American) about "social democratic", "socialist", "Labour" and more left parties/ideologies.

Anything left of the Republicans is communism.

Or, to be fair, in George's case, anything left of the Republicans is social-democratic. (Or "social-democrat").

Not that that's any more correct.
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Sat 5 May, 2007 12:59 pm
Your lack of precision (Walter and Habibi) is annoying. Anyone to the left of Attila the Hun is a communist. If you intend to characterize American political principles, have the courtesy to get it right.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sat 5 May, 2007 01:02 pm
I stand corrected. Embarrassed
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sat 5 May, 2007 01:41 pm
Mee too! :wink:
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 5 May, 2007 02:00 pm
ossobuco wrote:
I have to repeat that from reading the Kramer article in the New Yorker that I linked earlier in the thread, I came out with some lack of enthusiasm for her

I wanted to respond to that article before already, but properly, and I havent had time for that. Personally, I think it was a surprisngly subpar effort for a normally outstanding magazine.

IMO, it was a lazy article, one that would have been fine as a day-to-day piece for the WaPo or LAT or whatever, but really didnt meet the New Yorker's standard. It should definitely not be used as one's main orientation guide or anything.

I did type out one random example about its lacking merits somewhere else, so I can paste that in here, at least.

Elsewhere, nimh wrote:
To understand both the particular strength of Sarkozy's "law, order and morality" appeal right now, and the visceral fear & loathing he evokes in the impoverished, multicultural suburbs, the riots of 2005 are an essential piece of background.

But the New Yorker article devotes all of two sentences to those event - which claim to explain what "the problem" was as follows:

In the fall of 2005, thousands of young men from those projects .. took to the streets for a month of unabated rioting, to protest the lack of jobs, and even the prospect of jobs, in the land of "liberty, equality, and fraternity." (Part of the problem is education; the rest is simply French xenophobia and racism.)

Thats it. Pleasing though this 'explanation' would be to my liberal ears, this must be the most ridiculously simplistic analysis I've read in any article longer than two paragraphs.


OK, wait, so let me expand after all now that I started. Another sign of laziness that immediately comes to mind about the article is its thoughtless parroting of neoliberal cliches when it briefly characterises the "state of the nation". I'm sure no particular ideological argument was intended by the author - it's just the kind of shorthand that journalists resort to when they have to pull together an article hastily. Let me deep-analyse a sentence or two to make clear what I mean. Emphases here all mine:

Quote:
[France's] protectionist policies are disastrously out of touch with the global reality, let alone with the realities of the European Union [..] Sarkozy has been the only candidate willing to admit that the country will have to [..] reduce a massive public sector that eats up nearly forty-five per cent of the national budget. [..]

I added the emphases to highlight how she almost thoughtlessly inserts these kind of emotive descriptions, without offering an underlying argument about it. Almost as if she's not aware that there even is, or should be, an underlying argument. Like, thats just how it is - public sector bad, globalisation good, and any country's attempt to steer a divergent path from the spiralling path of privatisation and liberalisation just means that it's "out of touch".

You encounter this kind of casual regurgitation of what are substantially ideological framings a lot in the US and UK media - but the New Yorker is generally not in the business of unquestioningly regurgitating anything. It questions - it digs deeper than the news industry's superficial characterisations.

And I mean, some of this doesnt even make sense. France's policies are "disastrously" out of touch - OK, thats a point of view, though surely somewhat of a lazy hyperbole. (I mean, disaster? The French economy is growing too slowly, for sure, but it is still growing - so, mediocre, perhaps, subpar, but "disastrously"?) But then she continues, "disastrously out of touch with the global reality, let alone with the realities of the European Union". Because, what, the EU is a lot more liberalised and globalised still than the world in general? Doesnt compute.

It's interesting to see Kramer, a page later, unquestioningly quote Bayrou saying:

Quote:
"I went to a tiny lycée in a tiny town in the Pyrenees, and I had the same good education I would have had at the best lycée in Paris," he told me. "That is not possible anymore."

The irony apparently escapes her: first decrying how the "massive" public sector should be slashed because it "eats up" too much of the national budget, and then sadly noting that nationwide quality education, well, is just "not possible anymore". That there might be a relation between the two things - the relentless pressure on the state to cut its public sector spending, and the emerging realisation that nationwide quality education is somehow suddenly just "not possible anymore" - it remains beyond the grasp of consciousness.

What you see here is what you see in much current deadline journalism - the now-dominant neoliberal dogmas are embraced subconsciously, as "just how it is", without regret or even awareness of it happening. In her turn, Kramer chooses to conclude by quoting journalist Christine Ockrent:

Quote:

Instead of any argument for further "marketisation", Ockrent's quote again only brings the nonsequitor that well, that's just "the real world", and those who dissent therefore just dont "want to join the real world". Drives me barking mad, that. Kramer doesn't question Ockrent's words, and doesn't quote the opposing perspective.

With such submerged ideological bias, it's no wonder that the article reads like a 9-page defense of Bayrou, and take-down of Segolene Royal.

But it's not even just the ideology behind the piece that bothers me. It's also its sheer sloppiness. Dominique Strauss-Kahn is "considered to have been his party's best finance minister", she says, without saying by whom. He was ignonimously defeated by Royal in the primaries, so apparently not by his own party's rank and file.

At least for Bernard Kouchner, when she introduces him as "arguably its best health minister", she substantiates it by noting that he "still tops the annual polls for France's most popular politician". But Kouchner in turn is the husband of Ockrent, underlining how the article neatly circles around a limited political set - the market-oriented wing of the Parti Socialiste, basically.

There's more lack of questioning when Kramer quotes Sarkozy:

Quote:

Kramer omits to factcheck the claim. She doesnt note that, although Sarkozy may be first in the polls nationally, he was roundly trounced in the first round by "the voters there", in the neighbourhoods that Kramer brought up. For example, in Clichy-sous-Bois, where the 2005 riots first erupted, Sarkozy got just 24,5% - against 41,6% for Royal.

Basically, this must have been one of the two or three least convincing New Yorker articles I've read.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 5 May, 2007 02:07 pm
High Seas wrote:
Btw, the endorsements (or lack thereof) of the 2 main candidates by Bayrou, Le Pen, and the little fringe parties only NIMH has heard of, can be analyzed with this function:

http://demonstrations.wolfram.com/BanzhafPowerIndex/

"Little fringe parties only NIMH has heard of" that last time around pooled 27% of the national Presidential vote - and even now, in stark defeat, still pooled over 10%.

Ross Perot could only dream of such numbers.

Cool-looking site though.
0 Replies
 
ossobuco
 
  1  
Reply Sat 5 May, 2007 04:36 pm
I'll agree with your comments, nimh, now that you point them out, though I'll probably go back and see how I see all that the second time. I don't remember the context of the first quote, but you quote correctly as a habit. I'll agree anyway that I see her as a writer that paints pictures, usually from interviews, and there can be an inherent sloppiness in that, but that your examples show further sloppiness.

On the banlieus, she's written about them at length before. (There was once a long article about, I think, Dijon.)
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 May, 2007 11:07 am
News reports indicate a record voter turnout in France today. The late polls continue to show a decisive lead on the part of Sarkozy. However, the actual margin in the vote will undoubtedly be very interesting.

What will emerge? It seems to me that one of the more interesting issues ahead is whether Bayrou will succeed in creating a political party that could displace (or absorb) the Socialist's position in French political life. So far it appears to me that is an unlikely prospect, but one can always hope.
0 Replies
 
sozobe
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 May, 2007 11:11 am
(Appreciate the analysis of Kramer's article, nimh.)
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 May, 2007 11:14 am
georgeob1 wrote:
It seems to me that one of the more interesting issues ahead is whether Bayrou will succeed in creating a political party that could displace (or absorb) the Socialist's position in French political life. So far it appears to me that is an unlikely prospect, but one can always hope.


You ask more than Bayrou intends. And your focus is quite different to his.

He wants to create a centrist party. Which means, IMHO, that he'll get as much support from those now supporting the right as from those now more leaning left.

And why shouldn't he succeed? There's no center party in France - the closest to the center are indeed the Socialists on the left side.
And he already got enough support.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 May, 2007 11:24 am
I am hearing from my sources, oddly from my on-line scrabble buddies in France and other places in Europe, that Sarkozy has won. Their immediate concern is with what will happen in the streets tonight. Will the "scum" - Sarkozy's word -react violently?
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 May, 2007 11:29 am
Since the poll stations are still open for 30 mins (until 20:00 h local time), no-one knows who has won, johnboy.

The police is on alarm in the same numbers as they are on New Year's Eve = policemen all over the place in suburbian Paris and some cities like Strassbourg, Lille, etc.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 May, 2007 11:33 am
Actually, 25% of the ballot stations are open until 20:00 h, mainly in the big cities like Paris, Lyon, Marseille, Caen, Toulouse, Bordeaux, Montpellier, Grenoble, Saint-Etienne, Reims, Strasbourg, Lyon, Villeurbanne, Amiens...

In Dijon, Rennes, Tours, Nantes, Toulon ... they closed half an hour ago.

In all other places (besides oversea terretories, where they voted yesterday) they closed at 18:00h.
0 Replies
 
realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 May, 2007 11:41 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Since the poll stations are still open for 30 mins (until 20:00 h local time), no-one knows who has won, johnboy.


Point noted, Walter. And my sample size of, um, six scrabble players from France, is not statistically valid. But most of them beat me at the game of scrabble.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 May, 2007 11:46 am
15 mins to go - tenthousands are on the streets as you can see on the two monitors in the actual tv-screenshot

http://i14.tinypic.com/6ativ52.jpg
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 May, 2007 12:01 pm
First election projection:

SARKOZY : 53%

http://i14.tinypic.com/6fkb2vo.jpg
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 May, 2007 12:33 pm
This is how the Bayrou supporters voted (or not):

http://i11.tinypic.com/4v8qie0.jpg

40% Sarkozy, 38% Royal, 15% didn't vote and 7% voted invalid.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 May, 2007 12:42 pm
Though the record turnout was indeed a victory for (French) democracy, it will be a a hard job to unite the country now.

And there are the parliament elections in mid-Juin ...
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 6 May, 2007 01:10 pm
With the first final results coming in, Sarko is even doing better:

http://i17.tinypic.com/4q37lno.jpg
0 Replies
 
 

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