NCLB requires states to show progress in achievement for up to seven identifiable subgroups - including poor, minority, English learner and disabled students.
But the U.S. secretary of education has decided states do not need to show progress in graduation rates for these subgroups. This provides a perverse incentive: One way to raise both the aggregate test scores and the test scores of these subgroups is to get the most low-achieving students to leave the school or the district, either by dropping out or transferring to a program that issues a high school equivalency diploma. Although such students would lower the NCLB graduation rate, the school or district could still make adequate yearly progress as long as it showed a 0.1 percent improvement in its aggregate graduation rate. So by discharging the most difficult at-risk students and working with the best of the rest, both test scores and graduation rates could improve. This practice already has been reported in New York City and in Houston, and has been documented in the research literature.
Even if such practices don't show up in California, the lack of a timely plan to reduce the state's dropout figures is shameful, and costly in the long run. The census estimates that over their working lives, dropouts earn $270,000 less than students who graduate and don't go to college. That means the 66,567 students who the state admits dropped out of California public schools in a single year (2002-03) will cost the state $14 billion in lost wages. If the actual number of dropouts is much higher than the official state figures, then the cost is even greater. Dropouts also cost the state in other ways through higher crime rates, increased welfare and more dependence on public health care. Last year's dropouts likely will result in 1,225 more state inmates who will cost taxpayers $73 million to incarcerate.
California's long-term welfare depends critically on its willingness and ability to fully educate the state's growing and diverse student population. Its dropout plan falls far short of this goal.
About the writers:
Russell W. Rumberger is a professor of education and director of the UC Linguistic Minority Research Institute at the University of California, Santa Barbara. He can be reached at
[email protected]. Daniel J. Losen is a senior education law and policy associate at the Civil Rights Project at Harvard University. He can be reached at
[email protected]. Both were contributing editors to the report "Dropouts in California: Confronting the Graduation Rate Crisis," issued in March by the Civil Rights Project.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------