Why the Left Is Furious at Lieberman; Iraq is only a part

Added more info (on how independent voters divide and how Lieberman and Lamont rate on character issues) and an extra link to my previous post.

Cyclopitchorn wrote:

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It's to be expected; Lieberman is getting all of the Republicans and some of the Dems. But the number of Dems he is getting will go down significantly as time goes along and most of the party turns against Lieberman.
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Please alert the pollsters who are all showing that Lemont is fallling, falling, falling..

Note NEW POLL--



Polling Results

August 17, 2006 - Lieberman Leads Among Likely Connecticut Voters, Quinnipiac University Poll FindS.

Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman, running as an independent, gets 53 percent of likely voters, with 41 percent for Democratic primary winner Ned Lamont and 4 percent for Republican Alan Schlesinger, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.


Among registered voters, Sen. Lieberman gets 49 percent, followed by Lamont with 38 percent and Schlesinger with 4 percent. This compares to a 51 - 27 percent Lieberman lead over Lamont, with 9 percent for Schlesinger in a July 20 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.


In this latest survey, Lieberman leads 75 - 13 - 10 percent among likely Republican voters, and 58 - 36 - 3 percent among likely independent voters, while likely Democratic voters back Lamont 63 - 35 percent. Two percent are undecided, but 28 percent of those who name a candidate might change their mind before Election Day.


"Sen. Lieberman's support among Republicans is nothing short of amazing. It more than offsets what he has lost among Democrats. As long as Lieberman maintains this kind of support among Republicans, while holding onto a significant number of Democratic votes, the veteran Senator will be hard to beat," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.


"Ned Lamont's Democratic primary win was based on a very small percentage of voters statewide. He must expand beyond this base if he is going to beat Lieberman."


Connecticut voters approve 55 - 40 percent of the job Lieberman is doing and likely voters give him a 46 - 30 percent favorability rating, with 23 percent mixed.


Lamont gets a negative 25 - 30 percent favorability rating among likely voters, with 19 percent mixed and 26 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.


Likely voters say 53 - 40 percent that Lieberman deserves reelection. Among those who oppose his reelection, 24 percent cite his position on the war in Iraq.

a 51 - 27 percent Lieberman lead over Lamont, with 9 percent for Schlesinger in a July 20 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.


In this latest survey, Lieberman leads 75 - 13 - 10 percent among likely Republican voters, and 58 - 36 - 3 percent among likely independent voters, while likely Democratic voters back Lamont 63 - 35 percent. Two percent are undecided, but 28 percent of those who name a candidate might change their mind before Election Day.


"Sen. Lieberman's support among Republicans is nothing short of amazing. It more than offsets what he has lost among Democrats. As long as Lieberman maintains this kind of support among Republicans, while holding onto a significant number of Democratic votes, the veteran Senator will be hard to beat," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.


"Ned Lamont's Democratic primary win was based on a very small percentage of voters statewide. He must expand beyond this base if he is going to beat Lieberman."


Connecticut voters approve 55 - 40 percent of the job Lieberman is doing and likely voters give him a 46 - 30 percent favorability rating, with 23 percent mixed.


Lamont gets a negative 25 - 30 percent favorability rating among likely voters, with 19 percent mixed and 26 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.


Likely voters say 53 - 40 percent that Lieberman deserves reelection. Among those who oppose his reelection, 24 percent cite his position on the war in Iraq.








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"Sen. Lieberman's support among Republicans is nothing short of amazing. It more than offsets what he has lost among Democrats. As long as Lieberman maintains this kind of support among Republicans, while holding onto a significant number of Democratic votes, the veteran Senator will be hard to beat," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz
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Yes, thats the one that Okie and I just already posted.


No, he's not falling. Lamont is holding steady. Lieberman is getting votes from Schlesinger, but not from Lamont. See above.

(And thats comparing two different polls - this one from Quinnipiac and last week's from Rasmussen. Compared to the previous Quinnipiac poll, admittedly a while ago, Lamont actually went up.)

Mr.Nimh- I will be sure to post the results for you when Lieberman easily defeats Lemont. But I won't forget about you in the meantime when I will continue to post poll results!

Lemont's goose is cooked!!!!

Oh, I'm guessing Lieberman will win too. Nothing to prove there.

I am glad that you are at least a realist--or--someone who doesn't like to lose. When you see the cards are not showing up for you, you are smart enough to toss in your hand. One win for moderation against the kooky left win extremists as represented by Lamont. I'll take it.. THEN We will see just how well African-American Candidates who run in venues WHERE THE MAJORITY IS NOT AFRICAN AMERICAN, do in their races. As I predicted,unless they run against an non-entity(like Keyes) or have the vote split three ways in the primary( like the incredibly ineffective Carol Mosely Braun did in Illinois) NO AFRICAN-AMERICAN CANDIDATE WILL WIN!!!!


I am very much afraid that you don't understand US politics- Mr. Nimh!!!

Oh I would still vote for Lamont, if I were a Connecticutian (or whatever they're called) - I just dont think he's going to win.

Perhaps Lieberman is getting votes from Schlesinger, but by the same token, Lamont is probably at his max. I don't think the potential for Lamont to take voters from Republicans exists at all, and the potential for taking Lieberman votes is not very great, so I think his upside potential is pretty limited. I think his goose is cooked unless some scandal or something emerges in his favor. The unknowns for Lamont are greater than for Lieberman, so as people learn more about Lamont and his problems, his numbers could possibly drop dramatically.

Yes, he's definitely the underdog in the equation. I think you might be right about him probably being at his max.

You're definitely right about Lamont having little chance among Republicans (tho I was surprised that he still got 13% of 'em anyway, in this poll - actually more than Schlesinger did).

That leaves two other possibilities for him still.

1) At the moment, 35% of Democrats still poll for Lieberman. If and when Democratic prominents lean in for Lamont, and Lieberman starts to rely ever more on conservative supporters and catchphrases (like the "Lamont victory emboldens terrorists" crap), that number might still go down, in favour of Lamont.

Not by all that much though, I dont think. Lieberman's been a Senator for a long time. There'll simply be a share of Democrats that sincerely likes him, or that feels he did something for them. And others that just dont like the Kos constituency behind Lamont. Basically Lieberman will have his own pockets of support among the Dems up till the end, so his Dem support is not going to fall to, say, 10%.

However, if it falls from the current 35% to, say, 20% - I think thats about the lowest hypothetically possible - that will still take some 5% off what Lieberman polls overall, and give it to Lamont. That alone would slash Lieberman's 53%-41% lead to 48%-46%. Worth noting.

2) Among independents, Lieberman now leads 58% to 36%. I dont immediately see this changing much, but then Ive been wrong before.

You could say that considering Lamont has so far tailored his message entirely to "the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party", so to say, it's quite surprising that he even got that much still - and that the fact that he did, anyway, shows that independents are open to his "fresh wind" appeal too. And that once he starts adapting his strategy to the post-primary, general elections stage of the campaign, he could thus well make further gains there still.

(Not that there's much sign of him doing so yet; Lamont has said that he won the primary with message he has so he's not going to change it. Refreshingly consistent/honest, but probably not a winning strategy.)

Yeah.

So - personally, I think Lieberman is the hands-on favourite. If I were a gambler I'd put my money on him. But those are the two possibilities I still hypothetically see for an upset. Or a combination of the two. For example, if Lieberman's appeal among Democrats drops from 35% to 25% - not altogether improbable - Lamont only needs to increase his support among independents from the current 36% to roughly 45%, and he's eeked out a victory. Its that part of the equation I dont see happening right now, but perhaps if theres more drastic bad news from Iraq, for example, or Bush supporters come out on Lieberman's side too ostensibly, its hypothetically possible.

LAMONT SLICES TWELVE POINTS OFF LIEBERMAN LEAD IN LESS THAN A MONTH


July 20: The three term Senator Joe Lieberman, if running as an independent, leads unknown challenger Ned Lamont by 24 percentage points, 51% to 27%.

August 17: Senator Joe Lieberman, running as an independent, leads Democratic victor Ned Lamont by only 12 points, with over two months to go before Election Day.

Lieberman is hemorhaging 12 points of lead per month.

There are two and a half months to go before Election Day.

This is supposed to be good news for Lieberman?

Do the Lieberman supporters on this thread possess even elementary math skills?

Elementary Math Skills says Meltic Wizard?

Well, my six year old grandson looked at the Rasmussen Reports and asked--Does that mean that Lieberman has 12 more points than the other guy-

Indeed it does, Grandson!!!

Note NEW POLL--



Polling Results

August 17, 2006 - Lieberman Leads Among Likely Connecticut Voters, Quinnipiac University Poll FindS.

Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman, running as an independent, gets 53 percent of likely voters, with 41 percent for Democratic primary winner Ned Lamont and 4 percent for Republican Alan Schlesinger, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.


Among registered voters, Sen. Lieberman gets 49 percent, followed by Lamont with 38 percent and Schlesinger with 4 percent. This compares to a 51 - 27 percent Lieberman lead over Lamont, with 9 percent for Schlesinger in a July 20 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.


In this latest survey, Lieberman leads 75 - 13 - 10 percent among likely Republican voters, and 58 - 36 - 3 percent among likely independent voters, while likely Democratic voters back Lamont 63 - 35 percent. Two percent are undecided, but 28 percent of those who name a candidate might change their mind before Election Day.


"Sen. Lieberman's support among Republicans is nothing short of amazing. It more than offsets what he has lost among Democrats. As long as Lieberman maintains this kind of support among Republicans, while holding onto a significant number of Democratic votes, the veteran Senator will be hard to beat," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.


"Ned Lamont's Democratic primary win was based on a very small percentage of voters statewide. He must expand beyond this base if he is going to beat Lieberman."


Connecticut voters approve 55 - 40 percent of the job Lieberman is doing and likely voters give him a 46 - 30 percent favorability rating, with 23 percent mixed.


Lamont gets a negative 25 - 30 percent favorability rating among likely voters, with 19 percent mixed and 26 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.


Likely voters say 53 - 40 percent that Lieberman deserves reelection. Among those who oppose his reelection, 24 percent cite his position on the war in Iraq.

a 51 - 27 percent Lieberman lead over Lamont, with 9 percent for Schlesinger in a July 20 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.


In this latest survey, Lieberman leads 75 - 13 - 10 percent among likely Republican voters, and 58 - 36 - 3 percent among likely independent voters, while likely Democratic voters back Lamont 63 - 35 percent. Two percent are undecided, but 28 percent of those who name a candidate might change their mind before Election Day.


"Sen. Lieberman's support among Republicans is nothing short of amazing. It more than offsets what he has lost among Democrats. As long as Lieberman maintains this kind of support among Republicans, while holding onto a significant number of Democratic votes, the veteran Senator will be hard to beat," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D.


"Ned Lamont's Democratic primary win was based on a very small percentage of voters statewide. He must expand beyond this base if he is going to beat Lieberman."


Connecticut voters approve 55 - 40 percent of the job Lieberman is doing and likely voters give him a 46 - 30 percent favorability rating, with 23 percent mixed.


Lamont gets a negative 25 - 30 percent favorability rating among likely voters, with 19 percent mixed and 26 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.


Likely voters say 53 - 40 percent that Lieberman deserves reelection. Among those who oppose his reelection, 24 percent cite his position on the war in Iraq.








************************************************************
"Sen. Lieberman's support among Republicans is nothing short of amazing. It more than offsets what he has lost among Democrats. As long as Lieberman maintains this kind of support among Republicans, while holding onto a significant number of Democratic votes, the veteran Senator will be hard to beat," said Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz
***********************************************************

My post dealt with the Quinnipiac Poll.

Quinnipiac Poll, July 20: The three term Senator Joe Lieberman, if running as an independent, leads unknown challenger Ned Lamont by 24 percentage points, 51% to 27%.

Quinnipiac Poll, August 17: Senator Joe Lieberman, running as an independent, leads Democratic victor Ned Lamont by only 12 points, with over two months to go before Election Day.

Lieberman is hemorrhaging support at the rate of 12 percentage points a month, with two and a half months to go before Election Day. Only 12 percentage points of lead remains, and Lieberman has two and a half months to lose it.

Lieberman supporters can puff all they wish-the air is going out of the Lieberman balloon in a hurry.

Keltic Wizard wrote:

Quinnipiac Poll, August 17: Senator Joe Lieberman, running as an independent, leads Democratic victor Ned Lamont by ONLY 12 points, with over two months to go before Election Day.

end of quote--

When Lamont leads Lieberman in ANY poll between now and Nov. 7th, Keltic Wizard, you are invited to post it. BUT DON'T HOLD YOUR BREATH!!

In the last three weeks, a three time Senator, (the last two times elected in a landslide), has lost the Democratic nomination and twelve points off his 24 point lead over Ned Lamont, a previously unknown challenger. With over two months to go.

Lieberman has lost The Big Mo. And Lamont's got it.

Sure- Keltic Wizard- Sure!!!

When Lieberman wins, I will be here to post his win on these threads.
Will you have the integrity then to say you were mistaken? I doubt it.

You really don't know how to read, do you?

58-36 among LIKELY INDEPENDENT VOTERS-advantage Lieberman.

Are you so unfamiliar with polling data that you think that will be turned around?

I'll bet you thought Cynthia McKinney would not be a loser!

I had no idea if Cynthia McKinney would win or not. I don't live in her state.

All I know is that in the state I live, in the past three weeks the Senator I voted for three times has lost both the Democratic nomination and 12 points of his lead with over two months to go to a fellow nobody heard of six weeks ago.

Exactly how that can be interpreted to bode well for that Senator in November is a complete mystery.

Well, if you pay close attention, Keltic Wizard, that mystery will be solved for you on Nov, 8th. In the meantime, so you do not lose track, I will post the poll numbers available!!!

That is so you don't have to cope with the "mystery"

Go right ahead and do exactly that.

Now, I have another question.

The Quinnipiac poll shows the Republican nominee as getting only 4 percent of the voters.

My question is: do you SERIOUSLY expect the Republican nominee to get less than 20 percent of the vote? If so, please show me a state where the Republican challenger ever got so low a vote

And if he does get 20 percent, what happens to Lieberman's numbers?

It's all very well and good to ride a publicity wave as some sort of "uniting" candidate. But from the Republicans' viewpoint, this is the guy who shellacked their candidate three straight times. And you are so very certain they are going to march right down to the voting booth and in large numbers pull the lever for this guy?

I dont think you know very much about politics, polling and elections, Veltic Wizard.

Polls give you numbers based on interviews.

Election counts give you results based on TURNOUT.

If you don't think the Connecticut voters are energized, you don't know a thing!

More Democrats will vote

More Independents will vote

More Republicans will vote

In the 2000 election, about 1,300,000 turned out to vote.

This time, that number will be increased by at least 300,000 AND MOST OF THAT INCREASE WILL BE MODERATES AND REPBUBLICANS VOTING FOR LIEBERMAN!!!

Oh, Bernard, you're such a troll.

You really don't know that much, but you insist on sternly lecturing others with capital letters and multiple exclamation points. As if your scoring big points, or something.

Now, take the quote above.

Bernard, have you forgotten that in 2000, we had a little thing called a Presidential Election? Predicted to be, and was, one of the closest in history-where everyone knew every vote counted.

And really, you should be aware, but apparently aren't, that turnout increases quite a bit in Presidential election years from other election years.

So precisely how you figure voter turnout is going to go up this non-Pesidential election year from the high of the 2000 Presidential election, is yet another mystery.

BernardR-International Man Of Mystery.


To get a better idea of voter turnout, consider the Connecticut Election of 1998, where a President was not running, but a popular Senator, (Chris Dodd), was.

Voter turnout was 965,000. That's 25% less than in the Presidential Election two years later.

Are the voters more energized in this non-Presidential Election than in 1998? I would say so. So I would expect more to turn out this year than in 1998.

Who knows, there might even be an outside chance that this year's non-Presidential race might turn out as many people this year as in the Presidential race of 2000. I wouldn't expect it, but you never know.

But you are basing your prediction of a Lieberman victory on the notion that there are going to be 300,000 MORE votes in this non-Presidential year than in the Presidential Election in 2000?

That's hilarious.

PS: I am still waiting for you to produce a race where the Republican nominee for Senate ever got anywhere near as low as 4% of the vote. Please show me. You know as well as I that the Republican nominee is going to get at least near 20% of the vote.

What is that going to do to Lieberman's numbers, Bernard?