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Another factor in the growth of the Hispanic population that has received less study is the role of marriage between Hispanics and non-Hispanics and the propensity for children of intermarried Hispanics to identify as Hispanic. Intermarriage is an important factor in population change for racial and ethnic populations because the choice of racial and ethnic identification by children of racially or ethnically intermarried parents can significantly affect the relative sizes of different racial and ethnic populations as well as population characteristics (Edmonston, Lee, and Passel, 2002; Snipp, 1997). Previous research on Hispanic intermarriage suggests that intermarriage between Hispanics and non-Hispanics is higher than racial intermarriage between whites and blacks, the two largest racial populations, but lower than intermarriage between whites and smaller racial groups such as American Indians. In 2000, about 14 percent of Hispanics were intermarried, compared with 7 percent of blacks and 57 percent of American Indians (Lee and Edmonston, 2005). Certain characteristics are associated with higher intermarriage among Hispanics, such as younger age, higher education, metropolitan residence, and being born in the United States (Lee and Edmonston, 2005; Stevens and Tyler, 2002).
There is a fairly extensive research literature on Hispanic intermarriage and a growing body of research on the racial and Hispanic identification of children of intermarried couples (Qian, 2004; Xie and Goyette, 1997); however, less is known about the consequences of intermarriage on Hispanic population growth and change operating through the choice of Hispanic identity of children of intermarried Hispanics. (4) In an important paper on the growth of white ethnic populations in the United States, Hout and Goldstein (1994) described the contributions of natural increase, intermarriage, and ethnic preference in self-reported ethnicity on ethnic population growth. The authors noted that white ethnic groups, such as Irish and Italians, have experienced substantial growth because of relatively high rates of ethnic intermarriage and the propensity of individuals to identify themselves as Irish or Italian Americans. Hout and Goldstein (1994:79) conclude: "We will not be surprised if the various Hispanic groups follow the Italian pattern in years to come."
This article is a logical extension of previous work such as Hout and Goldstein's (1994). The purpose of this article is to demonstrate empirically the possible consequences of Hispanic intermarriage and Hispanic identification of children of intermarried Hispanics for the future size and composition of the Hispanic population. We begin by examining trends in Hispanic intermarriage and reported Hispanic identity of children of intermarried Hispanics. Findings on rates of Hispanic intermarriage and Hispanic identification of children of intermarried Hispanics are applied to a population projection model to the year 2025 to assess the impact on future Hispanic population growth and composition. We discuss implications of the findings for understanding Hispanic population change, the meaning of Hispanic ethnicity, and public policies related to race and ethnicity.