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Iran Air Strikes Growing in Probability

 
 
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Sat 9 Sep, 2006 10:21 pm
xingu wrote:
Cooking intelligence - again

By Gordon Prather


It doesn't take cooked intelligence to realize that Iran's illegal nuclear program is going to produce an atomic warhead in less than 10 years.

And Amademajabber's speeches that mock the international community seem to sound more and more like Hitler's mocking speeches all the time.

The only question is, do we give Israel enough nuclear firepower to give even Amademajabber pause, or do we go to war against Iran now.
0 Replies
 
McGentrix
 
  1  
Reply Sat 9 Sep, 2006 10:30 pm
oralloy wrote:
Amademajabber


Laughing Laughing
0 Replies
 
BernardR
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Sep, 2006 12:12 am
Oralloy-You should be aware, sir, that some of our more irrational posters are not thinking clearly. You see, some have had severe damage to their brains after massive myocardial infarctions and subsequent stents.Unfortunately, they cannot put stents in a brain to allow enough blood to get there so that the person can think clearly!

Your points are well taken, Oralloy. You are obviously well read concerning Iran.

The key point is that Israel will undoubtedly take action before Iran is ready with a Nuclear Device. Israel slowed Iraq down by taking out their facilities in the eighties. Some feel that they will replicate that strategy in Iran. They know that Iran is dead set on their destruction. I must be remembered that the motto of the Mossad is:

"Never again"
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Sep, 2006 03:23 am
BernardR wrote:
I rebutted Xingu's previous post but he did not feel he could reply to my facts which showed that his presentation was clearly in error.

The Xingu posted some NONSENSE from a source called CHATHAM HOUSE---Examination of the contributors to that source shows that at least half of the contributors are Middle Eastern.

This, of course, renders Xingu's post as one that is quite biased and, as such, ineffective in bringing real light to the argument!


Bernard just because you had never heard of Chatham House before, please spare us another display of your bias and ignorance by condemning them because they employ middle east experts to study and write about the middle east.

http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/index.php?id=1

Quote:
Chatham House is one of the world's leading organizations for the analysis of international issues. It is membership-based and aims to help individuals and organizations to be at the forefront of developments in an ever-changing and increasingly complex world.

Due to external support Chatham House is crucially able to remain free of all government and political interests. Our funding comes from charitable grants, corporate and other donations, membership subscriptions and revenue from the Institute's wholly owned trading subsidiary Chatham House Enterprises Limited
0 Replies
 
BernardR
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Sep, 2006 03:41 am
I am very sorry but I must continue to critique CHATHAM HOUSE as a biased source. Upon reviewing the names of the contributors, it is clear that they have a decidedly left wing slant.

Would you like some details?
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Sep, 2006 03:45 am
There is NOTHING the United States or Israel can do to stop Iran acquiring nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them IF that is their intention. Furthermore there is nothing more likely to set Iran on that road than an attack on their existing nuclear installations. They are an industrious people, intelligent, patient and play the long game. If Israel and its proxy the United States attack Iran, they will, eventually, feel that they have no alternative but to destroy what they call the illegitimate zionist entity. All the Iranians want, after centuries of meddling in their country by foreign powers is a recognition of equality and that they too have certain inalienable rights; among them life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

The war mongers here should be thoroughly ashamed. If they get their way, Israel will be destroyed, and millions killed. "Never Again" indeed.
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Sep, 2006 03:48 am
BernardR wrote:
I am very sorry but I must continue to critique CHATHAM HOUSE as a biased source. Upon reviewing the names of the contributors, it is clear that they have a decidedly left wing slant.

Would you like some details?
yes please.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Sep, 2006 07:06 am
oralloy said
Quote:
Or we can invade them on the ground and destroy all their facilities, then pack up and go home.

Ramping up Israel's nuclear arsenal so that they have an effective deterrent against Iran seems the best way to go, so far as I can see.


Ramp up to what? Doubling or quadrupling Isael's present capacity would achieve what differences in Iranian conceptualization of the world?

"...then pack up and go home." Good grief. Simple and brisk as staying a week at the beach condo.
0 Replies
 
xingu
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Sep, 2006 01:58 pm
orally wrote:
The only question is, do we give Israel enough nuclear firepower to give even Amademajabber pause, or do we go to war against Iran now.


Well we can't invade Iran or we'll get our ass kicked. Unlike you I see what's happening to us in Iraq and so does Iran. We don't have the capability of invading Iran. If we did we would be thrown out of Iraq.

However I suppose the macho dreamers on the conservative side think we can kick the whole worlds ass, all at the same time. Reality is not one of their strong points. And we see what's happening to us in Iraq when reality is one of the weak points in our present administration.
0 Replies
 
Asherman
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Sep, 2006 02:38 pm
Quote:
There is NOTHING the United States or Israel can do to stop Iran acquiring nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them IF that is their intention.


Iran has repeatedly and candidly announced their intention to become a nuclear power, and their program to enrich weapons grade material should be ample proof of their intention to build nuclear warheads. Iran is not facing an energy shortage, and isn't universally known for its dedication to improving the environment. Iran is not threatened by nuclear armed neighbors, so long as it doesn't continue developing nuclear weapons. Indeed, Iran has continually threatened Israel with extermination, provided sanctuary for international Islamic terrorist organizations, and provided the logistics to expand unrest in Iraq.

Of course you are spectacularly wrong in supposing that there is "NOTHING the United States or Israel can do to prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons". We can destroy their nuclear facilities, repeatedly if necessary. We can, if we wish, destroy the infrastructure necessary to operate any sophisticated industry. Without roadways, electrical power plants, etc., Iran become again just another Third World dictatorship struggling to merely feed its people. We CAN do that, and the danger of Iran frying Tel Aviv, London, or L.A. would be greatly diminished.

What would happen then? Well, China would be able to get a good deal on Iranian oil that they need. Terrorist organizations would have one less sanctuary and sponsor. The flow of Iranian munitions would dry up in Iraq, and the preponderance of forces dedicated to the extinction of Israel would be reduced. Russia would benefit by the weakening of its Muslim minorities who would no longer be supplied by Iran. I suppose Russia would gains some reconstruction contracts. Iran, if stopped now, would not have the capacity to directly threaten anyone in the region. There would be a reasonable chance that stability might be achieved. That's the best case scenario.

The worst case scenario is that Iran would retaliate by going all out to drive Coalition forces from Iraq, and would try to close the area to oil transhipment. If they attacked a single giant oil tanker, they would pollute their own shores and draw down upon themselves further attacks to destroy the Iranian capability to close the shipping lanes. If they attacked into Iraq in force, they might make things pretty hot for awhile. However, that they couldn't keep up an effective attack for very long because we own the air. Its hard think of a greater mistake than to try taking on the U.S. military head-to-head.

On the other hand, all they have to do is cry "uncle" and we leave them alone to stew in their own juices. If they revive an aggressive armaments program, we destroy that effort as well.

There is always a risk that these things will get out of hand, and that unintended consequences will crop up. Thats almost a truism about war. Iran can forestall conflict easily, but they believe they are divinely protected and that God will destroy the American infidels even if suicide attacks by Muslim children can not.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Sep, 2006 10:32 pm
Steve 41oo wrote:
>There is NOTHING the United States or Israel can do to stop Iran acquiring nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them IF that is their intention. Furthermore there is nothing more likely to set Iran on that road than an attack on their existing nuclear installations. They are an industrious people, intelligent, patient and play the long game.


They are already on that road.

However, the destruction of their nuclear facilities would set them back a bit, and the elimination of their energy production and distribution infrastructure would prevent them from having an industrialized economy so they can try again.

The big problem is that bunker outside Isfahan. No airstrike, short of a nuke that will produce a LOT of fallout, will be able to eliminate that facility.



Steve 41oo wrote:
>If Israel and its proxy the United States attack Iran, they will, eventually, feel that they have no alternative but to destroy what they call the illegitimate zionist entity.


And we will feel that we have no alternative but to annihilate them first.



Steve 41oo wrote:
>All the Iranians want, after centuries of meddling in their country by foreign powers is a recognition of equality and that they too have certain inalienable rights; among them life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.


I don't know about that. That Amademajabber character is reminding me more and more of Hitler. I think Iran plans to cause much mischief in the world once they have nuclear weapons to threaten people with.

That said, the best option seems to be ensuring that Iran's neighbors are bristling with nukes, instead of directly attacking Iran.



Steve 41oo wrote:
>The war mongers here should be thoroughly ashamed. If they get their way, Israel will be destroyed, and millions killed. "Never Again" indeed.


I don't see what there is to be ashamed of. Iran is a serious threat to the civilized world and should be treated as such.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Sep, 2006 10:35 pm
blatham wrote:
oralloy said
Quote:
Or we can invade them on the ground and destroy all their facilities, then pack up and go home.

Ramping up Israel's nuclear arsenal so that they have an effective deterrent against Iran seems the best way to go, so far as I can see.


Ramp up to what?


I'd guess about a thousand warheads. We should also provide Israel with modern thermonuclear warhead designs, and modern delivery systems.


Israel needs to have enough missiles on hair trigger alert so they can launch a strike on all of Iran's nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons storage facilities the moment Iran launches a missile at Israel.


In addition, Israel needs enough nuclear weapons, deployed in such a way that they are capable of surviving an Iranian nuclear strike, to:

a) be able to take out all Iran's leadership targets if their government is determined to destroy Israel

b) be able to take out all Iran's nuclear weapons factories and energy production/distribution infrastructure if the Iranian people should be determined to destroy Israel even after their leadership is killed

c) be able to take out all of Iran's population centers, so they can hold Iranian cities hostage against further attacks against Israel, and to be able to retaliate against any attacks Iran does make



blatham wrote:
"...then pack up and go home." Good grief. Simple and brisk as staying a week at the beach condo.


Not quite that easy. I think the best option is to build up Israel's nuclear arsenal.

However, the environmental impact of such a ground invasion will not be nearly as devastating as a nuclear attack on Iran.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Sep, 2006 10:36 pm
xingu wrote:
orally wrote:
The only question is, do we give Israel enough nuclear firepower to give even Amademajabber pause, or do we go to war against Iran now.


Well we can't invade Iran or we'll get our ass kicked. Unlike you I see what's happening to us in Iraq and so does Iran. We don't have the capability of invading Iran. If we did we would be thrown out of Iraq.


Our ability to conduct an occupation has absolutely no bearing on our ability to confront and destroy an army on a battlefield.
0 Replies
 
BernardR
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Sep, 2006 10:44 pm
Asherman wrote:

There is always a risk that these things will get out of hand, and that unintended consequences will crop up. Thats almost a truism about war. Iran can forestall conflict easily, but they believe they are divinely protected and that God will destroy the American infidels even if suicide attacks by Muslim children can not.

end of quote


I am very much afraid that the left wing, which is, of course, highly secular, is not aware of the massive influence of fanatical Islamic religious thinking. The left apparently does not know, as Asherman points out, that they believe they are divinely protected. They are religious fanatics. The left has not or, does not want to, investigate the influence of the doctrine of the Return of the Twelfth Imam on the politics of Iran.
Until the left understands that fanatical and irrational persons who are the leaders in Iran, actually believe that the Twelfth Imam will return to UNITE ALL OF THE WORLD UNDER ISLAM AFTER AN APOCALYPSE OF SOME KIND( nuclear?), the world is heading for another holocaust. But this one may involve more than just Israel!!!
0 Replies
 
BernardR
 
  1  
Reply Sun 10 Sep, 2006 10:54 pm
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Sep, 2006 05:20 am
oralloy wrote:
Steve 41oo wrote:
>There is NOTHING the United States or Israel can do to stop Iran acquiring nuclear weapons and the means to deliver them IF that is their intention. Furthermore there is nothing more likely to set Iran on that road than an attack on their existing nuclear installations. They are an industrious people, intelligent, patient and play the long game.


They are already on that road.


You assume this. You dont know it. You might be right, but people assumed things about Iraq's wmd program too.

oralloy wrote:
However, the destruction of their nuclear facilities would set them back a bit, and the elimination of their energy production and distribution infrastructure would prevent them.....


from pumping out the oil the west so desperately needs.

oralloy wrote:
The big problem is that bunker outside Isfahan. No airstrike, short of a nuke that will produce a LOT of fallout, will be able to eliminate that facility.


the political fallout will be even hotter. I dont think they will be so stupid, but on the other hand I have been wrong before..BUT even if it was a successful nuclear strike, the Iranians will build another facility and first the world would hear about that is when Tel Aviv or some middle American town disappears under a mushroom cloud.



oralloy wrote:
Steve 41oo wrote:
>If Israel and its proxy the United States attack Iran, they will, eventually, feel that they have no alternative but to destroy what they call the illegitimate zionist entity.


And we will feel that we have no alternative but to annihilate them first.


Of course the US has an alternative. Its called talking. Doing a deal. Rapprochment. Detente. FIXING THE MIDDLE EAST. There is plenty to do a deal about. The West needs Iranian oil. They control the oil flow through the Straights of Hormuz. Iranian oil exports to China have gone up 10 fold in the last 5 years. Do you want to see China taking all Iranian oil? Thats oil the West isnt getting.


oralloy wrote:
Steve 41oo wrote:
>All the Iranians want, after centuries of meddling in their country by foreign powers is a recognition of equality and that they too have certain inalienable rights; among them life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.


I don't know about that. That Amademajabber character is reminding me more and more of Hitler. I think Iran plans to cause much mischief in the world once they have nuclear weapons to threaten people with.

That said, the best option seems to be ensuring that Iran's neighbors are bristling with nukes, instead of directly attacking Iran.


The analogy with Hitler is pretty desperate. In what way is Armadinejad like Hitler? The problem for Iran is too many of its neighbours already possess nuclear weapons. You dont halt the proliferation of nuclear weapons by supplying more nuclear weapons to unstable regimes on Irans borders. As I said if Iran really wants nuclear weapons they will in time get them. Iran is not going away, any more than Israel or US is. The obvious answer which I cant believe I have to spell out over and over again, is to convince Tehran that they dont NEED them.


oralloy wrote:
Steve 41oo wrote:
>The war mongers here should be thoroughly ashamed. If they get their way, Israel will be destroyed, and millions killed. "Never Again" indeed.


I don't see what there is to be ashamed of. Iran is a serious threat to the civilized world and should be treated as such.


It seems to me you are advocating risking the deaths of millions of innocent people throughout the middle east and the rest of the world. I accept Iran is a threat, and I certainly dont want to see them with nuclear weapons, but to actually USE nuclear weapons in a vain attempt to stop them acquiring them is sheer lunacy.
0 Replies
 
Steve 41oo
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Sep, 2006 05:39 am
BernardR wrote:



and from that exchange you conclude that Robin Niblett is left wing biased and doesnt know what he is talking about and that it is "obvious" from the names of the Chatham house staff that they are of middle eastern origin and biased, anti American, left wing, and probably in league with bin Laden?

Give me break Bernard...by reading this

http://www.chathamhouse.org.uk/pdf/research/mep/Iran0806.pdf

it should keep you quiet for a while.
0 Replies
 
old europe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Sep, 2006 05:46 am
Possum wrote:
I am very much afraid that the left wing, which is, of course, highly secular, is not aware of the massive influence of fanatical Islamic religious thinking. The left apparently does not know, as Asherman points out, that they believe they are divinely protected. They are religious fanatics.


There seems to be a hidden message in these sentences....

Very Happy Very Happy Very Happy
0 Replies
 
Setanta
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Sep, 2006 05:59 am
oralloy wrote:
xingu wrote:
orally wrote:
The only question is, do we give Israel enough nuclear firepower to give even Amademajabber pause, or do we go to war against Iran now.


Well we can't invade Iran or we'll get our ass kicked. Unlike you I see what's happening to us in Iraq and so does Iran. We don't have the capability of invading Iran. If we did we would be thrown out of Iraq.


Our ability to conduct an occupation has absolutely no bearing on our ability to confront and destroy an army on a battlefield.


You have consistently displayed a far too optomistic notion of what it would take to defeat the Persians, and it's typical of those who are either war-mongers (which i don't charge you with being) or who calously disregard military realities in their eagerness to believe in military solutions to any international confrontation (which i do charge you with). Destroying the Persians on the battlefield is a chimera--it would not be easy because to be effective in an operation to take out the Persian nuclear facilities will inevitably mean occupying the territory at least temporarily, because at this point, even a nuclear strike won't guarantee that we'd take out their facilities. That means sending in the infantry to occupy the territroy, and Xingu is absolutely correct, occupying Iran, a mountainous nation on all sides, would be a nightmare.

You have, in this thread, consistently displayed a confidence in the ease with which we could deal militarily with Iran which suggests to me either a naive ignorance of military operations, or a willingness to delude yourself in the cause of your political beliefs. As soon as anyone planning military operations begins to confidently predict the ease with which they can be accomplished, that person should be subject to intense skepticism. Even invading Grenada did not prove as easy as the clowns in the White House told everyone (including knowledgable military men at the Pentagon) it would be. Iran is a far harder nut to crack than your breezy opitimism would lead the unwary to believe.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Sep, 2006 10:38 am
oralloy wrote
Quote:
I'd guess about a thousand warheads. We should also provide Israel with modern thermonuclear warhead designs, and modern delivery systems.

Israel needs to have enough missiles on hair trigger alert so they can launch a strike on all of Iran's nuclear weapons and nuclear weapons storage facilities the moment Iran launches a missile at Israel.


Why one thousand as opposed to, say, fifty or ten?

You didn't answer the question as to how this might have a consequence for Iran's conceptualization of the world or even its policies as regards Israel/US. One would want to know also why you'd reach these conclusions. If, for example, Iran considered launching a nuke against Israel, do you surmise they would assume other nuclear power (the US) wouldn't bring their capacity into play?

And, do you have a lot of shares or employment salary related to the nuclear armaments industry?
0 Replies
 
 

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