A first(?) thread on 2008: McCain,Giuliani & the Republicans

A majority of adults in the United States believe their federal administration should not wage war against Iran, according to a poll by Opinion Research Corporation released by CNN. 63 per cent of respondents would oppose the U.S. government if it decides to take military action in Iran.
Yet while Obama-like calls for diplomacy are almost immediately labelled "too left" or "extreme" despite polling data that shows the opposite, people who advocate insane military attacks on Iran are virtually never labelled as such even though polling data shows how fringe they are. That is because "centrism" and "extremism" and "fringes" designate nothing other than what Beltway media stars personally believe, and anyone who favors war -- old ones or news ones -- is inherently mainstream, responsible and . . . serious. That, more than anything else, is why we are still in Iraq, and why withdrawal is universally depicted as the "extreme" leftist position even though most Americans favor it.

Rudy the Razzer
Will Giuliani's beat-up-on-Democrats strategy backfire?
By John Dickerson
Posted Tuesday, July 31, 2007, at 5:40 PM ET

Rudy Giuliani
Last fall, when Rudy Giuliani was campaigning for a moderate Republican senate candidate in the blue state of Maryland, he was a vision of moderation. Dick Cheney and Donald Rumsfeld were labeling Democrats appeasers for their positions on Iraq, and the official GOP strategy going into the 2006 election was that a Democratic victory would make America less safe. But Giuliani didn't play that game. During a speech to stalwart Republicans, he described the nations that harbored terrorists as "demagogues that blame and project their problems and do nothing to solve the problems of their own people," and someone from the audience yelled out: "Sounds like the Democrats." It got a big cheer.

Giuliani gently chastised the heckler: "We can't get into this partisan bickering. The fact is that Republicans and Democrats have the same objectives. They get very angry at us and we get very angry at them. Somehow we have to put that anger aside. Democrats are loyal Americans. Republicans are loyal Americans. I think we have better answers, but we have to respect each other."

Not anymore, we don't. Ten months later, everything has changed. Running for the GOP presidential nomination, Giuliani is now the chief heckler of Democrats. He called Barack Obama and John Edwards "losers," has revived the insult of "socialized medicine" when referring to Democratic health-care plans, and now charges the Democrats are trying to bring back the nanny state. He taunts Democrats to use the term "Islamic terrorists," and when they don't, he says it's all the proof one needs they won't keep us safe. I asked him in 2006 whether he thought Democrats were advocating appeasement with the terrorists. He said he didn't see it that way. He sure does now, suggesting Democrats would invite another 9/11-style attack. I expect him to start showing up at Clinton rallies and making noises with his armpit...

For more than a few Republicans, no doubt, the fall of McCain is a cause for rejoicing. But I wonder if they'll feel that way when all is said and done. McCain's flaws are real enough, but no one can dispute that he's a serious man, with serious ideas, who would have seriously changed the GOP, a party in a serious state of crisis. Nothing similar can remotely be said of what remains of the Republican top tier. McCain's marginalization leaves them all floating, weightless, barely tethered to reality, short of ideas and gravitas, let alone convictions. I suspect that they will miss him more and sooner than they now know.

Highlighting this one first:

OCCOM BILL wrote:

I'm 'generally satisfied with pretty much any food that fills my stomach. See where I'm going? [..] You are out of line.

You snorted at Cyclo for daring to suggest that Democratic voters liked their choices. But polls say that Democratic voters are satisfied with their choices. Talking about being out of line, do you really think the difference between "satisfied with them" and "liking them" is significant enough to go around deriding people?

Here, FYI: A new ABC News/Washington Post national survey, conducted 7/18 through 7/21, finds:

Quote:

83% are satisfied "with the choice of candidates for the Democratic nomination for president this year;" 16% are dissatisfied.

POLL: ABC/POST Iowa GOP Caucus

Additional results from the recent ABC News/Washington Post statewide survey of likely caucus goers in Iowa (conducted 7/26 through 7/31) finds: [..]

* 19% of likely Republican caucus goers are "very satisfied" with the choice of candidates for the Republican nomination, 55% are "somewhat satisfied," 22% are "somewhat dissatisfied," and 3% are "very dissatisfied."

* Among 500 likely Democratic caucus goers, 53% are "very satisfied" with their choice of candidates, 36% are "somewhat satisfied," 9% are "somewhat dissatisfied," and 1 % is "very dissatisfied."

But Romney's win was muted somewhat by the fact that two prominent GOP contenders -- former New York Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain -- eschewed participation. Former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson, who has not announced his candidacy, also did not take part.

Still, all three were on the straw poll ballot. Thompson finished seventh with 1.4 percent, Giuliani finished eighth at 1.3 percent and McCain got 0.7 percent for 10th place.

The non-binding poll on Iowa State University's campus was the equivalent of a political state fair for Republicans, as the candidates chartered hundreds of buses and provided food, T-shirts and entertainment -- as well as the $35-per-person admission fee -- for thousands who entered the state GOP's massive fundraiser.

In many respects, the event appeared to be on a much smaller scale than the last straw poll eight years ago. The 14,302 total ballots cast were down substantially from the 23,685 cast in 1999, potentially reflecting the unsettled field of Republican candidates as well as what polls have shown to be a large bloc of Iowa GOP voters undecided and dissatisfied with the slate of contenders.

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,293003,00.html

It is my belief that in the back rooms of the Democrats campaigns, they fear Mitt Romney more than any of the other Republicans running. I have not yet made up my mind, but I am leaning toward Romney as our side's best chance to win.

unless they really screw up

okie wrote:

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,293003,00.html

It is my belief that in the back rooms of the Democrats campaigns, they fear Mitt Romney more than any of the other Republicans running. I have not yet made up my mind, but I am leaning toward Romney as our side's best chance to win.

Umm, Romney is the front-runner I fear least.

I do think, unlike many others in the current climate, the Republicans have a real chance in the '08 elections: presidential election campaigns have this tendency to just turn the political climate upside down to some extent. I mean, Gore should have been a shoo-in in '00 as well, considering how friendly public opinion was to the Clinton presidency and the Democrats.

So I fear Giuliani, whom I would hope would make some drastic temperamental misstep, but who would be a very formidable campaigner if he'd manage to avoid one. Also, he's sufficiently removed from the loathed Bush presidency, while still as able as it to play the terror/fear card thats proven so incredulous-making effective so far.

I also fear Fred Thompson, who seems to fake the down-home, folksy conservative sensibility thats proven so effective before as effectively as Bush once did. He looks and sounds presidential, conservatives gush, and I wish I could just ridicule the vacuousness of that as I'd want to, but American voters have fallen for it time and again before.

But Romney? You never know, but I just dont see it..

On the statistical side: Romney has been in the race for a lot longer than Thompson, even than Giuliani I think, but in the match-up polls where he and the others are pitted against the Democratic frontrunners, Romney consistently does worse than Thompson and a lot worse than Giuliani and McCain.

Can the GOP Make a Comeback?

BY FRED BARNES
Tuesday, August 21, 2007 12:01 a.m. EDT

It's not particularly visible at the moment, but there is a road to political recovery for Republicans. Chances are they won't get far enough down it to recapture the House or Senate or even hold the White House in 2008. But they might.

Most of all, Republicans believe in this country and the principles it was founded upon, which set them apart from Democrats from the git-go.