A first(?) thread on 2008: McCain,Giuliani & the Republicans

I hear you, Fox, and conventional wisdom would support you--but Rudy's got that 911 gravitas.

And, everybody else sucks.

But, still, you know of what you speak.

Jesus H Christ! Bite your tongue!

let's pray he keeps his nose clean and there aren't too many bones for the attack dogs to dig up.

That is exactly what we've been discussing.

But the Conservative base, not even the RR, will vote for a liberal left of most liberals over a conservative more left than most conservatives are. It is the excitement factor to get out the vote that is the critical component though.

Foxfyre wrote:

That is exactly what we've been discussing.

But the Conservative base, not even the RR, will vote for a liberal left of most liberals over a conservative more left than most conservatives are. It is the excitement factor to get out the vote that is the critical component though.

It's something which has been relied upon too heavily by Republicans over the last few years; the GOTV machine isn't as devastatingly effective as it used to be on election day.

Imagine a somewhat apathetic Republican crowd versus an (I hope he doesn't screw it up before then) Obama dem voter field. Night and day. The Republican candidate doesn't have a shot unless he can unify AND get out the Republican voter field.

Unless Hillary gets the nomination, in which case I'll vote for whoever runs against her.

Cycloptichorn

She's already been through her trial by fire and I don't think they'll dig up anything worse to hit her with.

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She's already been through her trial by fire and I don't think they'll dig up anything worse to hit her with.

She hasn't been through the trial by fire yet. Her former problems are bad enough, but her failure to repudiate Iraq is going to lose her about 50% of the Dem base, at least! People who would have stuck by her otherwise.

As Iraq gets worse and worse, those who still support keeping troops there will become more and more marginalized. This whole 2-year primary is astounding; it will be difficult to imagine Hillary maintaining both her momentum and her support across this time in the face of worsening conditions.

You say that Hillary has 'the clout' to prevent Obama from winning, but I believe that Obama has things that the Hill will never have, such as the ability to speak in a convincing and exciting way in front of a crowd. Can you imagine an Obama-Clinton debate? He'd absolutely murder her.

Cycloptichorn

But I think the conventional wisdom is that an anti-Iraq stance is going to hurt any candidate far more than it helps.

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But I think the conventional wisdom is that an anti-Iraq stance is going to hurt any candidate far more than it helps.

Actually, the CW these days is the exact opposite of what you've written here, Fox. I have no idea how you can't see this in light of both polling, the situation in Iraq, and the 2006 elections, which were the biggest landslide in American Congressional election history.

Cycloptichorn

Cycloptichorn wrote:

Quote:

But I think the conventional wisdom is that an anti-Iraq stance is going to hurt any candidate far more than it helps.

Actually, the CW these days is the exact opposite of what you've written here, Fox. I have no idea how you can't see this in light of both polling, the situation in Iraq, and the 2006 elections, which were the biggest landslide in American Congressional election history.

Cycloptichorn

Ummm, I think you're wrong on all counts.

Recheck your facts and get back to me. (I do acknowledge that there are polls out there that you can use to defend your point of view. And there are others out there that I can use to defend mine. )

Foxfyre wrote:

Cycloptichorn wrote:

Quote:

But I think the conventional wisdom is that an anti-Iraq stance is going to hurt any candidate far more than it helps.

Actually, the CW these days is the exact opposite of what you've written here, Fox. I have no idea how you can't see this in light of both polling, the situation in Iraq, and the 2006 elections, which were the biggest landslide in American Congressional election history.

Cycloptichorn

Ummm, I think you're wrong on all counts.

Really?

Quote:

Recheck your facts and get back to me. (I do acknowledge that there are polls out there that you can use to defend your point of view. And there are others out there that I can use to defend mine. )

Well, arguments about CW aren't usually too fact-based anyways. But a couple of things that ARE factual is that: averages of polling data support my position (not just outliers) AND the 2006 elections were the biggest landslide in American Congressional history.

Cycloptichorn

As to the 2006 elections being the biggest landslide in American Congressional history, compare the numbers with the 1994 election and get back to me.

Are you saying polls are never skeweed or do not include different and/or leading questions, etc. etc. etc.? My favorite polling group with the highest accuracy ratings recently is Rasmussen who agrees with me. You may have the advantage of the averages but you would have to show how the questions were formulated before we can know what those averages mean.