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A first(?) thread on 2008: McCain,Giuliani & the Republicans

 
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sun 17 Dec, 2006 04:05 pm
From the Wall Street Journal Online, a poll (PDF with data here) that spells trouble for any potential Romney or Rice presidential run:

Quote:
Americans Open to New Kinds of Candidates

December 15, 2006

<bit about Obama and Hillary snipped>

Though just 19% would have "some reservations" or be "very uncomfortable" about a Jewish candidate, 53% would about a Mormon seeking the White House. Misgivings are higher among conservatives and evangelicals, underscoring need for Massachusetts Gov. Romney to address the issue the way JFK defused concerns about Catholicism in 1960.

More Americans express doubts about a candidate who served in Bush's cabinet (59%) than one who is gay or lesbian (53%).
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 18 Dec, 2006 03:42 pm
Interesting article about Mitt Romney, the relationship between current (potential) presidential contenders and the religious conservatives, and the latter's weakness it exposes.

Quote:
Make Believe

by Jonathan Chait
Only at TNR Online
Post date 12.18.06

Looking over the field of potential Republican presidential candidates, one odd thing jumps out at me: Most of them have expressed deep hostility to the religious right's point of view in the past, and several of them are now insisting that they didn't mean a word of it.

One way to look at this is to conclude that they all said or did things they didn't mean, or that they have genuinely come around to the social conservative position. Oddly enough, this is the interpretation many social conservatives seem inclined to accept.

Or there's the other, more logical interpretation: The Republican Party's governing class is deeply hostile to social conservatism, and its leaders manage to fool the base over and over again.

This delicate situation was thrown into stark relief last week when Bay Windows, a Boston newspaper covering gay and lesbian issues, published an interview it had conducted with Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney in 1994. Romney, now a leading candidate for the GOP presidential nomination, had characterized the religious right as "extremists," said he essentially had the same position on gay rights as Ted Kennedy, and cast himself as an heir to his moderate father, George Romney, the Michigan governor who walked out of the 1964 Republican convention to protest Barry Goldwater.

Those positions certainly seem believable. Mitt Romney had run as a supporter of abortion rights and legislation protecting gays from on-the-job discrimination.

But he has since reversed both positions, and an advisor insisted that Romney had been "faking it" as a pro-choicer, explaining that he had to do it because social conservatism is unacceptable to the voters of Massachusetts.

But wait a second. Social liberalism is unacceptable to GOP primary voters, right? So maybe, just maybe, Romney is faking it now, and all that stuff he said about gay rights and the influence of his moderate father was genuine, no?

This would be bad enough for social conservatives if Romney were the moderate in the race. But, in fact, he's the current favorite among social conservatives. Indeed, social conservatives don't even want to hear about Romney's scandalously tolerant past. Brian Camenker, a right-wing activist who has been sounding the alarm bells about Romney, has gotten a frosty reception from his fellow religious conservatives. " 'Why are you attacking Romney?' " they keep asking him, according to my colleague Ryan Lizza. "He's better than Giuliani and McCain.' "

The GOP primary is indeed a sorry state of affairs for the religious right. Senator John McCain of Arizona once described religious-right leaders as "forces of evil" and has mused that he would not support the repeal of Roe v. Wade. More recently, McCain, like Romney, has backed off his moderate statements (not surprising, given the furor they provoked). But McCain is even less credible in his newfound conservatism; only a total naif could believe him now. A general rule of political life is that when a candidate says something unpopular off the cuff and then takes it back in prepared remarks, you can be sure that the original statement is what he really thinks.

Meanwhile, the other leading contender, former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani, is pro-choice, pro-gun control, and pro-gay rights. When he left his second wife, Giuliani actually moved in temporarily with a gay couple.

I have to give Giuliani credit: Unlike Romney and McCain, he has admirably declined to discover a new set of deeply held social convictions. But, of course, there's plenty of time until Iowa.
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Jan, 2007 04:57 pm
Dusting this off after the holidays. Romney is getting one step closer and now seems to be trying to position himself slightly to the right. I think we we will hear, pretty quickly, from some more to the right (Gingrinch?).

(An amusing story that perhaps we talked about elsewhere. But I can't find it. This dude from Minnesota (?) won a seat in the US House. He will be sworn in tomorrow. The tradition is that there is a public totally non-secular official ceremony, followed by an unofficial "private" ceremony - meaning not involving public money etc.
So this guy who was elected is Muslim - our first member of that faith. And he will have his hand on the Koran.

My congressman, Virgil Goode, was outraged. Absolutely outraged. We are a Christian country, he wrote in a letter to colleagues and constituents. The Koran, he blithered, has no place under any real American's hand.

Ha! Tomorrow, the 177something translation of the Koran owned by Thomas Jefferson will be brought to the House and the new congressman can lay his hand on it. If he were alive today, TJ would be in the same voting district as Goode).
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OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Wed 3 Jan, 2007 05:01 pm
Virgil Goode doesn't sound much like a "real American" himself.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Jan, 2007 05:48 pm
Quote:

Summary:

Quote:
Sen. Jim DeMint has endorsed former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in the 2008 presidential race, The endorsement letter letter the South Carolina senator is sending to state Republicans marks a split between the two Republican senators representing South Carolina, which holds the first southern presidential primary. Sen. Lindsey Graham, South Carolina's senior senator, favours Sen. John McCain.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Jan, 2007 06:15 pm
Sam Brownback turns against the Iraq "surge"..

Quote:
WHAT IS BROWNBACK UP TO?:

TNR The Plank
11 January 2007

Probably the most interesting surge-related development on the right comes courtesy of Sam Brownback. Brownback, you'll recall, is the evangelical-cum-Catholic angling to become the conservative alternative to John McCain. Up until the last few months, he was a pretty reliable supporter of the war in Iraq. But he's since concluded that the war has taken a disastrous turn, and he's become more and more willing to call the administration on it. This all culminated with this week's statement that, "I do not believe that sending more troops to Iraq is the answer. ... Iraq requires a political rather than a military solution."

So what is Brownback up to? On one level it's pretty obvious. John McCain and, to varying degrees, the rest of the GOP field have cast their lot with Bush and the surge. There's nothing for a longshot like Brownback to gain by falling in line behind them, and plenty to gain by distinguishing himself on the issue. That's particularly true given the exceedingly likely possibility that the surge will fail, at which point Brownback will look somewhere between sober and prophetic.

More interestingly, the move turns out to be pretty welcome among Brownback's desired base of social conservatives. While 52 percent of Republicans support the surge according to a just-released AP/Ipsos poll, some 60 percent of white evangelicals oppose it, as do 56 percent of self-described conservatives. [..]

--Noam Scheiber
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Jan, 2007 06:17 pm
Quote:
Giuliani's business dealings may hurt bid"It's not just him, it's all of the candidates," Cohen said. "The real problem is that in order to run for president you need over $100 million and that can only come from powerful economic interests." [..]

Giuliani made headlines last week when a copy of his nascent campaign's strategy made its way to the New York Daily News.

Aides claimed the 140-page document was pilfered from a piece of luggage when a staffer changed planes. The document itself offered no bombshells, but it acknowledged the obvious: a moderate Republican who has supported abortion rights, gay rights, and gun control may be a tough sell to GOP primary voters.

The bolded part is sad, really. You (Americans, bla bla et cetera) may have come to see it as only normal, but it's not, really. And it's not healthy for a democracy.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Jan, 2007 06:26 pm
nimh wrote:
Quote:
Giuliani's business dealings may hurt bid"It's not just him, it's all of the candidates," Cohen said. "The real problem is that in order to run for president you need over $100 million and that can only come from powerful economic interests." [..]

Giuliani made headlines last week when a copy of his nascent campaign's strategy made its way to the New York Daily News.

Aides claimed the 140-page document was pilfered from a piece of luggage when a staffer changed planes. The document itself offered no bombshells, but it acknowledged the obvious: a moderate Republican who has supported abortion rights, gay rights, and gun control may be a tough sell to GOP primary voters.

The bolded part is sad, really. You (Americans, bla bla et cetera) may have come to see it as only normal, but it's not, really. And it's not healthy for a democracy.


Perhaps not, but the United States is perhaps unique in that its population is so large and so scattered over such a vast area. I personally would like to see ALL campaign contributions for Congresspersons and Senators come from within their home states and it made illegal for anyone outside the state to contribute to those campaigns. That makes sense to me and would stop a whole lot of major nonsense.

But for President, there is no way any candidate can visit every district, county, area, or even state in any meaningful way during the course of a campaign. So, they have to rely on name recognition and message and that requires flyers, posters, signs, radio, and television exposure sufficiently competent to make them look good, appealing, desirable, etc. etc. etc.

And that takes a BUNCH of money.

Ross Perot probably spent the least with the best results, but even he got 19% of the vote which isn't going to elect anybody. There's no way to limit the amount of time the candidates can campaign either. Look how many have already been campaigning for years.

I honestly don't see any reasonable away around it without giving up personal freedoms that I don't think we should give up.
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OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Jan, 2007 09:14 pm
Yes indeedy. It's a sorry state of affairs, that. And look what we get for the money. Shocked I wonder how much was spent on Tony Blair...
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Jan, 2007 09:31 pm
OCCOM BILL wrote:
Yes indeedy. It's a sorry state of affairs, that. And look what we get for the money. Shocked I wonder how much was spent on Tony Blair...


Tony doesn't have to campaign in the whole country to be Prime Minister. He just has to make it into Parliament.

I wonder if that would work here? Just let Congress pick one of their own to be President? Would that mean we would now have President Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid? Scary thougth that.
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OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Jan, 2007 09:37 pm
Too scary to contemplate... I'm not ready for President Nancy and SoD Murtha Shocked and where would uncle Ted be Shocked ... Laughing
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Jan, 2007 09:39 pm
Now wait just a minute. When did Nimh's avatar become the same as that of Gus?
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Jan, 2007 09:42 pm
And, Occom Bill. Oh, no.
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OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Jan, 2007 09:43 pm
Careful Johnboy... the Ratzenhofer Virus is going around and it's already starting to mutate. I think I've got the Sheratzenhofer Strain.
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Sat 13 Jan, 2007 09:59 pm
I think that Gus fully realizes that I am a redneck. He can mess with nimh and occum bill, but when you encounter a redneck, you have to realize that we aren't too bright, are probably drunk, and have guns. I hope Gus undestands that, cause I know where he lives.
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Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Jan, 2007 04:12 pm
Foxfyre wrote:

I wonder if that would work here? Just let Congress pick one of their own to be President? Would that mean we would now have President Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid? Scary thougth that.


Foxfyre wrote:

Tony doesn't have to campaign in the whole country to be Prime Minister. He just has to make it into Parliament.


Which wrong, both.

Though a PM in the Westminster systems (like in Canada, Australia, ... and the UK) doesn't have to be a member of parliament, he/she usually the leader of a party and thus engaged in election campaign even more than simple parliamentary candidates.

Same is for other systems, e.g. in Germany, Austria, Spain etc.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Jan, 2007 05:50 pm
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Foxfyre wrote:

I wonder if that would work here? Just let Congress pick one of their own to be President? Would that mean we would now have President Nancy Pelosi or Harry Reid? Scary thougth that.


Foxfyre wrote:

Tony doesn't have to campaign in the whole country to be Prime Minister. He just has to make it into Parliament.


Which wrong, both.

Though a PM in the Westminster systems (like in Canada, Australia, ... and the UK) doesn't have to be a member of parliament, he/she usually the leader of a party and thus engaged in election campaign even more than simple parliamentary candidates.

Same is for other systems, e.g. in Germany, Austria, Spain etc.


Good point that the PM does not have to be a member of parliament. I probably knew that once and long forgot it.

But does not the Monarch figuratively choose the PM from the majority party and Parliament then "elects" or "ratifies" or whatever they call the choosing of the PM? Or rejects him/her?

It would seem that a PM would then only have to mostly campaign within his/her own party and could focus mostly on those who would have voting power to affirm or reject him/her.

I'll admit it has been many decades since I studied anything re British government and I allow that I could be completely wrong about this.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Sun 14 Jan, 2007 11:56 pm
Foxfyre wrote:
But does not the Monarch figuratively choose the PM from the majority party and Parliament then "elects" or "ratifies" or whatever they call the choosing of the PM? Or rejects him/her?


That's correct. And the same - more or less - in the other parliamentary systems with a separate head of government to the (largely ceremonial) president as head of state.

However, those "PM-candidates" are indeed those persons who do the most of a job during campaigns. Especially touring through all the country.
(Voters wan to know personally about their may-be future head of government. And they should do so, isn't it?)
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 15 Jan, 2007 01:34 am
Walter Hinteler wrote:
Foxfyre wrote:
But does not the Monarch figuratively choose the PM from the majority party and Parliament then "elects" or "ratifies" or whatever they call the choosing of the PM? Or rejects him/her?


That's correct. And the same - more or less - in the other parliamentary systems with a separate head of government to the (largely ceremonial) president as head of state.

However, those "PM-candidates" are indeed those persons who do the most of a job during campaigns. Especially touring through all the country.
(Voters wan to know personally about their may-be future head of government. And they should do so, isn't it?)


I don't doubt that the PM has be accessible to the people and liked by the people in order to govern effectively. But I wouldn't think that would require the many many millions of dollars (or pounds or whatever) that are necessary for candidates over here to market themselves and convince the voters that they are the most appealing of the available choices.
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  1  
Reply Mon 15 Jan, 2007 01:41 am
That correct as well.

Besides, political parties are funded differently outside the USA - and their candidates as well.
0 Replies
 
 

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