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A first(?) thread on 2008: McCain,Giuliani & the Republicans

 
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Feb, 2008 06:08 pm
And for anyone who wants to pull their head out of the horserace thing for a bit, Bill Keller just gave a really valuable talk to press folk in England...
Quote:
Besides a decided preference for operating in the dark, the Bush administration has contributed to the woes of the press in another way. It has helped create a toxic climate for the press by inflaming the polarisation of our public. At least since the election of 2000, with its attendant questions of legitimacy, some of the wide, reasonable middle of the American electorate has gravitated to angry and intolerant fringes, right and left. There are many reasons for this - including the proliferation of partisan blogs, hate-mongering radio broadcasts and intemperate television shout shows - but a president plays a considerable role in setting the tone of public discourse, and the tone of public discourse in my country has been nasty. It has been nasty by design; dividing the electorate into mistrustful camps and pandering to their fears was an explicit strategy of the president's political wizard, Karl Rove.
Polarisation, wrote David Frum, who was a speechwriter in Mr Bush's first term, was Karl Rove's specialty. He united his own base on one side, and united his opponents on the other side.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2007/nov/29/pressandpublishing.digitalmedia1/print
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Feb, 2008 06:55 pm
I got a call today-a recorded call-from John McCain's wife, Cindy.
30-seconds long with this message for me in this part of Virginia: John McCain is pro-life and anti-immigration.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Feb, 2008 06:59 pm
realjohnboy wrote:
I got a call today-a recorded call-from John McCain's wife, Cindy.
30-seconds long with this message for me in this part of Virginia: John McCain is pro-life and anti-immigration.


Are you sure she didn't say anti- ILLEGAL immigration? That would be an important distinction. I can't imagine any conservative being anti-immigration.
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Feb, 2008 07:31 pm
Could be, Fox. I retract that last post.
These messages are spoken by folks who are not rednecks like me. In every one, they talk so damn fast. That hurts them, but none of the folks in the campaigns realize that. Something as simple as that hurts them.
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nimh
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Feb, 2008 08:16 pm
sozobe wrote:
I was looking for popular vote totals thus far and came across this snippet:

Quote:
McCain's is viewed favorably by 47% and unfavorably by 50%. His ratings are lower within his own party than those for either Obama or Clinton.


Exclamation


That reminds me...

This was a blog item by Victor Davis Hanson at the National Review's Corner, on Super Tuesday:

Quote:
The Die Has Been Cast
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Ticomaya
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Feb, 2008 09:13 pm
nimh wrote:
Ticomaya wrote:
If you thought that by replying that way I was asking you to provide examples, you were wrong.

Thats what I thought, yeah. I'm sure if you reread your post, you can see how I might have thought that:

Ticomaya wrote:
I've obviously not seen ALL the media headlines, but I've glanced through the Real Clear Politics links, and don't see the word "embarrassment" there. Not sure that indicates anything, one way or another, but I'm also sure you would be able to find one if not more opinion headlines out there that are supportive of your views in this regard.

Sounded to me like one of those, "well if you say it's so, I'm sure you could find some examples" things. I got that wrong, obviously, but you can see how.


Okay, I see how you read it, nimh.
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Feb, 2008 09:57 pm
Holy balls, check this out!

Quote:
Eve of VA GOP Primary 2/11/08: Huckabee Closes-In On McCain

Big movement in Virginia following Mike Huckabee's strong showing over the weekend in Louisiana, Kansas and Washington state. On the eve of the Virginia Republican Primary, it's John McCain 48%, Mike Huckabee 37%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll released 72 hours ago, McCain is down 9, Huckabee is up 12. McCain had led by 32, now leads by 11. Among Conservative voters, McCain had led by 21, now trails by 5. Among Pro-Life voters, McCain had led by 20 points, now trails by 6. Among voters in Southeast VA, McCain had led by 28, now trails by 12. Among voters focused on Immigration, McCain had led by 16, now trails by 17. Among voters who attend religious services regularly, McCain had led by 24, now trails by 2.


http://www.wtvr.com/global/story.asp?s=7853147

GO HUCKSTER

Cycloptichorn
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Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Feb, 2008 10:03 pm
blatham wrote:
Here's some commentary from Limbaugh today...

Quote:
I'm aware of the New York Times, what they're writing, and all this. I've been thinking about this. The Bill Kristol, David Brooks wing of the party right now consists of about three people: Kristol, Brooks, and McCain. They're being repudiated, and they may not be comfortable with this. So I'm thinking that maybe I should support McCain to help them out.

The New York Times-McCain wing of the party's in trouble. Obviously they're in trouble
http://www.rushlimbaugh.com/home/daily/site_021108/content/01125106.guest.html

This reflects a very agreeable growing division and animosity between the Limbaugh/Coulter/Hannity etc crowd and the neoconservative camp. Note how Limbaugh is now counting Kristol as an agent of the despicable NY Times (along with McCain). Which ought to yield some funny flare-ups on various Fox shows.


You continue to want to elevate Coulter to height of influence that she doesn't actually hold. You don't keep photos of her in a black leather mountie uniform under your mattress do you?

More accurate anti-McCain media triads, in terms of influence, would be Limbaugh/Hannity/Levin or Limbaugh/Hannity/Ingles

Anti-McCain political triads: Delay/Dobson/Santorum

There's more to this roil than ideology.

McCain has not only not kow-towed to the Roarers on the Right, he's flipped them off from time to time.

If McCain takes control of the GOP (and he will if wins the election) some of these people will find themselves out in the cold.

The Radio Roarers have incredibly high opinions of themselves, and they want to be king-makers. In addition, their ratings climb when they are at the center of a storm.

While I'm sure McCain and his campaign crew would love for the Roarers to just shut up (the hell with endorsing him), I don't think they are inflicting irreparable harm. Ditto-heads and the like might sit home if their heroes have not finally come around for McCain, but most Americans are just not following this stuff as closely as we are, and if there is anything that is sticking it's probably a positive impression. I doubt too many people who will seriously weigh McCain as a possible choice over either of the Democrats are going to turned off by the fact that the Roarers of The Right don't love McCain. More likely the opposite.

This is a bizarre election. We have conservatives saying they will vote for a Democrat if McCain wins the nod, and liberals saying they will vote for McCain if the super delegates decide the nomination. It's fascinating.

If I wasn't so sure that an Obama or Clinton presidency will, overall, be detrimental to the best interests of America, I could enjoy this thing a lot more.

I'm not a huge fan of Brooks, but I will take Kristol/McCain/Brooks over Limbaugh/Hannity/Coulter any day. Of course I will take Limbaugh/Hannity/Coulter over any liberal triad too.
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realjohnboy
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Feb, 2008 10:13 pm
Cyclops. I don't know where those last numbers you posted came from, but in my mind they are bogus. McCain will take VA big, in my opinion.
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Cycloptichorn
 
  1  
Reply Mon 11 Feb, 2008 10:23 pm
realjohnboy wrote:
Cyclops. I don't know where those last numbers you posted came from, but in my mind they are bogus. McCain will take VA big, in my opinion.


Survey USA has been pretty reliable this cycle. I said the same thing on Feb. 4th when they pegged Clinton's lead in many states, much higher then what other polls at the time were showing.

It's not a guarantee but they aren't a fake polling outfit or anything.

Cycloptichorn
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snood
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Feb, 2008 01:29 am
Has anyone else seen democrats saying they would vote for McCain if the superdelegates decided the nomination?
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fbaezer
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Feb, 2008 02:23 am
realjohnboy wrote:
Could be, Fox. I retract that last post.
These messages are spoken by folks who are not rednecks like me. In every one, they talk so damn fast. That hurts them, but none of the folks in the campaigns realize that. Something as simple as that hurts them.



rjb, I vow to you. You're a master of elegance.
0 Replies
 
Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Feb, 2008 08:32 am
fbaezer wrote:
realjohnboy wrote:
Could be, Fox. I retract that last post.
These messages are spoken by folks who are not rednecks like me. In every one, they talk so damn fast. That hurts them, but none of the folks in the campaigns realize that. Something as simple as that hurts them.



rjb, I vow to you. You're a master of elegance.


He's also right about this.
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Foxfyre
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Feb, 2008 09:04 am
Now, after successfully deleting my quite idiotic answer to Snood's question when I thought I was on the Obama thread and we were talking about a brokered Democratic Convention, I would say that yes, the GOP super delegates will affirm McCain if he has the requisite number of delegates for the nomination. Given that he isn't generating clear majorities much of anywhere however, if by some miracle Huckabee, combined with Ron Paul and Mitt Romney's delegates that are not released but are merely suspended should force the GOP convention into a brokered Convention, I think McCain would likely be replaced.

Most especially that could be the case if the polls continue to show that McCain won't likely beat Obama.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Feb, 2008 10:12 am
snood wrote:
Has anyone else seen democrats saying they would vote for McCain if the superdelegates decided the nomination?


Nope. I give that about as much likelihood as the threats of frustrated evangelicals that they will stay home or vote for a Democrat. The opposition will get both moving as the election draws near.
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blatham
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Feb, 2008 11:15 am
finn said:
Quote:
You continue to want to elevate Coulter to height of influence that she doesn't actually hold. You don't keep photos of her in a black leather mountie uniform under your mattress do you?

More accurate anti-McCain media triads, in terms of influence, would be Limbaugh/Hannity/Levin or Limbaugh/Hannity/Ingles

Anti-McCain political triads: Delay/Dobson/Santorum

There's more to this roil than ideology.


There's no pure way to categorize the Republican stalwarts. For example, the most popular metaphor used to fit this task presently (used mainly by the right) is the 'three legged stool'...social conservatives, fiscal conservatvies and security conservatives.

But my interest is particularly related to their presence in media and in that sphere the two influential groups are the neoconservatives and the red-meat 'populists' of radio (and increasingly, tv, particularly Fox). They have quite distinct and different historical roots in american culture (the establishment intellectual vs the rural practical man) and the members of each group rise out of different educational and class/cultural backgrounds, more commonly at odds with each other than aligned.

Quote:
McCain has not only not kow-towed to the Roarers on the Right, he's flipped them off from time to time.

If McCain takes control of the GOP (and he will if wins the election) some of these people will find themselves out in the cold.


I agree. The red-meat populists (if you'll forgive my accurate label) appear to have much more to lose with a McCain presidency. They set themselves in loud opposition to McCain since his contest with Bush in the presidential nomination run, then grew louder as McCain violated doctrinal certainties. They are out on a limb. And that out-on-a-limb extremism which they avow (it is the proof of their conservative purity bona fides) makes course corrections embarrassing or impossible.

To the degree that they are perceived as 'paper tigers' or as extremists by their listeners/readers, to that degree they lose everything...power, status, money. They become merely oddballs. But that's the eventual fate of extremists, isn't it? Perhaps we might think of Coulter's or Schlafley's attempts to resurrect Joseph McCarthy as a personally hopeful enterprise.

It is the ironies and ahistorical parts of this story which are finally rising to the surface and causing some large part of the cognitive dissonance in your party now. Representing a species of american populism, these people ought to be much more at home with McCain (war hero, independent-minded, doesn't take guff and fists at the ready) than with Romney for god sakes or even with spoiled rich kid establishment Bush. But McCain has committed the conservative movement's biggest sin...the heresey of actual independence. Now, unfortunately, he's committing the independents' biggest sin...brown-nosing the doctrinal gate-keepers. Shakespeare could do something with this tragic star-crossed tale.

Another irony related to these two components of your modern republican party relates to militarism. While both the neoconservative community and the Limbaugh/Coulter/Hannity etc preen in the glow of their 'bring it on' militarism, neither group have found it necessary to be personally involved in the real enterprise itself. And that's a problem, again of cognitive dissoance, which is showing up in statistics on who the military families are increasingly supporting in this coming election. Not the Republican Party. It's a significant shift in loyalty and in thinking. But it makes sense if you consider that the volunteer military is perhaps the most diverse and (in one sense) most democratic institution in America. A real populist leader or spokesman, one whom the body of this military might identify with as one of the best of their own, would have their loyalty. And then you have Rush, pumped into the Green Zone twice a day, suggesting that McCain, of all people, is bad for America.

Quote:
The Radio Roarers have incredibly high opinions of themselves, and they want to be king-makers. In addition, their ratings climb when they are at the center of a storm.

While I'm sure McCain and his campaign crew would love for the Roarers to just shut up (the hell with endorsing him), I don't think they are inflicting irreparable harm. Ditto-heads and the like might sit home if their heroes have not finally come around for McCain, but most Americans are just not following this stuff as closely as we are, and if there is anything that is sticking it's probably a positive impression. I doubt too many people who will seriously weigh McCain as a possible choice over either of the Democrats are going to turned off by the fact that the Roarers of The Right don't love McCain. More likely the opposite.


I don't agree, finn. There is measurable harm being done to the McCain candidacy evidenced by the current primaries and caucuses. It is a consequence of this decline in party/movement unity and loyalty arising out of the stuff I've just talked about and the disasters of the last seven years.

Quote:
This is a bizarre election. We have conservatives saying they will vote for a Democrat if McCain wins the nod, and liberals saying they will vote for McCain if the super delegates decide the nomination. It's fascinating.


Yes it is. And the consequences of this election are seriously important in a whole range of directions. Voter turnout suggests this is quite broadly recognized.

Quote:
If I wasn't so sure that an Obama or Clinton presidency will, overall, be detrimental to the best interests of America, I could enjoy this thing a lot more.

I'm not a huge fan of Brooks, but I will take Kristol/McCain/Brooks over Limbaugh/Hannity/Coulter any day. Of course I will take Limbaugh/Hannity/Coulter over any liberal triad too.


I think that only time passing (and perhaps a broader reading regimen) will temper your fears.
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Feb, 2008 11:47 am
I'm curious to see if/how the New Baptist Covenant will come into play.

There's been (proportionally) more coverage here of their recent get-together than there seems to have been in the American MSM . It's pretty clear the right-of-centre MSM in America is not going to like the New Baptist Covenant - but ignoring it doesn't seem like a brilliant plan.
0 Replies
 
nimh
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Feb, 2008 03:38 pm
Crossposted from the Polls etc thread:

__________________


And here's the Gallup graph for the Republican nomination [..]:


http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/021208DailyUpdateGraph1.gif


Huckabee is catching up! Razz

Note also the details:

    After hitting a high point of 57% on Feb. 7-9 in Gallup Poll Daily tracking, support for John McCain has been slipping since then. In the Feb. 9-11 average, he receives 52% of the vote. Mike Huckabee moves up to 28%, from 23% Feb. 7-9 and from 21% Feb. 6-8. Even though there is talk of McCain's status as the presumptive Republican nominee, the Gallup Poll Daily tracking finds that almost half of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters nationwide say they support Huckabee, Ron Paul, Alan Keyes, "other," or don't have an opinion. [i][b]The interviews conducted Monday night, Feb. 11, show Huckabee doing particularly well, and McCain's support below the 50% mark.[/b][/i]

http://media.gallup.com/poll/graphs/021208DailyUpdateGraph3.gif
0 Replies
 
okie
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Feb, 2008 04:56 pm
Finn dAbuzz wrote:

While I'm sure McCain and his campaign crew would love for the Roarers to just shut up (the hell with endorsing him), I don't think they are inflicting irreparable harm. Ditto-heads and the like might sit home if their heroes have not finally come around for McCain, but most Americans are just not following this stuff as closely as we are, and if there is anything that is sticking it's probably a positive impression. I doubt too many people who will seriously weigh McCain as a possible choice over either of the Democrats are going to turned off by the fact that the Roarers of The Right don't love McCain. More likely the opposite.

Why do you now commence to insult some of the largest and most informed talk show audiences in the country, Finn?
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ican711nm
 
  1  
Reply Tue 12 Feb, 2008 05:10 pm
I PREDICT

Surprised

Hillary will be the Democrat's nominee for president.
(regardless of the primary vote)

Romney will be the Republican's nominee for president.
(regardless of the primary vote)

Rommney will win the election.
(regardless of Hillary's protests)
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