A first(?) thread on 2008: McCain,Giuliani & the Republicans

A Big McCain Win, But Trouble in the Weeds
Sen. John McCain won a narrow victory in South Carolina on Saturday, but the final results and the exit poll continue to show a very fractured Republican party without a single candidate who has emerged as a consensus choice.

Once again the devil is in the details, and anyone who digs through the exit poll will find that the GOP race is still wide open.

McCain won again, as he did in New Hampshire, on the basis of strong support from self-described moderates and liberals, and by attracting the votes of Independents. He won among primary voters who believe abortion should be legal, who believe that illegal immigrants should have a path to citizenship and who had a negative opinion of the Bush Administration.

McCain and Huckabee each won about 30 percent of the GOP, with Mitt Romney and Fred Thompson drawing another 16 percent each. Huckabee easily won conservatives, evangelical Christians, and voters who favored deporting illegal aliens.

Did McCain measurably improve on his 2000 showing in South Carolina? Not if you compare the 2000 and 2008 exit polls.

In 2000, McCain won 29 percent of self-described conservatives. This time, he won just 26 percent. In 2000, he drew 26 percent of Republicans. This time he won 30 percent - an improvement but not a dramatic one. McCain won 48 percent of veterans in 2000 against George W. Bush but only 37 percent this time.

If McCain didn't increase his percentages, why did he win? McCain won because of the fractured GOP field. Huckabee, Thompson and Romney divided the GOP vote and conservatives, allowing McCain to win with only a third of the total primary vote.

McCain's formula for victory can work in states that allow Independents to vote, but it's still unclear whether he can compete successfully in states with closed primaries, which includes a number of Super Tuesday states: California, Colorado, Connecticut, Montana, New York, Oklahoma and West Virginia.

McCain's victory is disappointing news for Rudy Giuliani, who is waiting in Florida. Giuliani's poll numbers have been slipping, and McCain's momentum could make him appealing to some Florida Republicans who had been considering the former New York Mayor.

Some observers surely will see McCain's victory in South Carolina as fundamentally changing the GOP race. But the evidence is not there yet that that is the case. If you look deep, deep into the weeds, the Republicans are still in a very wide-open race.

-- Stuart Rothenberg is the editor of the Rothenberg Political Report.

I don't think we have to worry about Rudy or anyone else. This is a two man race; Mc vs. Mitt.

McCain needs a large infusion of cash. Florida is a near must win or McCain.

"If we surrender [in Iraq] and wave a white flag, like Sen. Clinton wants to do, and withdraw, as Gov. Romney wanted to do, then there will be chaos, genocide, and the cost of American blood and treasure would be dramatically higher."

"Now I understand that Gov. Romney has changed his position again as he has on several other issues. But my friends, I was there. He said that he wanted a timetable for withdrawal. That would have meant disaster. That would have meant that al Qaeda would not be telling the world that they defeated the United States of America".

Mr McCain was withering in his response. "Running an investment company is probably a good thing to do," he said. "Making national policy concerning the national economy is probably more beneficial to the nation. Americans want leaders; they don't want managers. I can hire all the managers I need."

While campaigning in Alabama, Mike Huckabee, stepped into the fray between the two leading GOP candidates for the Florida primary, by defending John McCain from allegations by Mitt Romney that he was" dishonest". Romney had used that term after McCain accused him of supporting a timetable for withdrawal from Iraq.

"Senator McCain and I disagree on some things like immigration and Human Life amendment, but I've never known Senator McCain to be dishonest," Huckabee said to reporters [..]. "Many things might be said about him but I would not attribute dishonesty to Senator McCain."

Huckabee agreed with McCain that Romney had supported a timetable for withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq. Huckabee said that Romney supported a plan authored by Arkansas Senator Mark Pryor (D) that called for a "secretly-held" timetable for withdrawal without a publicly disclosed date.

"I have seen some of Governor Romney's statements on withdrawal," Huckabee said." I've seen the actual quotes and he did support that secret withdrawal plan, and its documented in a number of accounts."

Huckabee was met by a massive Alabama crowd at this Baptist university, a size that took campaign staffers, and school officials by surprise. The auditorium where Huckabee gave his remarks was fully packed, but there was an amount triple that size in the overflow room. The "room" was actually a larger auditorium opened up at the last second to accommodate the long lines. Local police put the number of people at five hundred in the first smaller auditorium, and 2 thousand plus in the second auditorium. [..] Reporters covering the event placed the amount closer between 1,500 to 2,000.

[..] Huckabee congratulated Senator Obama for his big win in South Carolina, and as he had done previously, compared the similarities between their campaigns. At the very least Huckabee's crowd size today here in Alabama could be arguably described as Obama-esque.

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I think that Fred Thompson is a much more likely VP selection than Huckabee.

georgeob1 wrote:

I think that Fred Thompson is a much more likely VP selection than Huckabee.

Yes ... definitely.

Ticomaya wrote:

georgeob1 wrote:

I think that Fred Thompson is a much more likely VP selection than Huckabee.

Yes ... definitely.

Really?

Huckabee brings a lot more votes to the ticket. You guys never managed to push Grandpa Fred past third place in any state.

Cycloptichorn

Cycloptichorn wrote:

Ticomaya wrote:

georgeob1 wrote:

I think that Fred Thompson is a much more likely VP selection than Huckabee.

Yes ... definitely.

Really?

Huckabee brings a lot more votes to the ticket. You guys never managed to push Grandpa Fred past third place in any state.

Cycloptichorn

Yes ... really.