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Part le deux of dropping off a link to this interesting article
The Wishy-Washy, Squishy-Squashy Pseudoscience of Electability
from the bottom of page 1 of 6
Quote:
The reductio ad absurdum of electability arguments may have come last month, when John McCain's campaign sent out an e-mail blast titled "Good Polling News" hyping a national poll by Fox News that, in the McCain campaign's estimation, showed that "John McCain is the Republican candidate best positioned to beat Hillary Clinton"?-because in hypothetical head-to-head matchups with Clinton, McCain outperformed Giuliani by one percentage point. Alas, there was an inconvenient truth about the poll: It showed McCain and Rudy both losing to Clinton, by three and four points, respectively. In other words, the McCain team's electability argument boiled down to this lame claim: Our guy will lose by less!
from the middle of page 4
Quote:
Barack Obama's electability argument is seemingly stronger. He has good favorability/unfavorability numbers, with a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll finding a 43/24 split (in striking contrast to Hillary, whose favorable/unfavorable numbers were 43/44). What's more, Republicans and independents?-especially those with advanced degrees?-have a generally favorable opinion of him, according to an August analysis by Gallup. Nor does Obama's race appear to be a disadvantage in electability terms?-and, according to Obama, it is actually a plus. Most public-opinion polls find that more than 90 percent of Americans say they would cast a presidential vote for a well-qualified candidate who happened to be African-American. And in August, Obama boasted (in New Hampshire, of all places) about how his support among African-Americans would "redraw the political map," saying that if the turnout of African-Americans relative to whites matched their percentage of the population in Mississippi and Georgia, those would become Democratic states, and that if African-Americans did the same in South Carolina, it would suddenly be in play.
But there are some definite chinks in Obama's electability armor. For one thing, his favorability ratings don't necessarily translate into votes. As GQ reported this summer, Obama's own pollsters have discovered that less than half of those who say they like the candidate actually say they'd vote for him; by contrast, about two thirds of those who say they like Hillary say they'd vote for her.
lots of interesting stuff on electability - fact/fiction/function
http://nymag.com/news/features/41285/