Blatham, ehBeth, Canajuns!! What do you make of WHO...?

It's that dang Oktoberfest Hinteler, isn't it? Is this why German tourists backpack, rather than rent a car?

No, it's because


(And as far as I know, Canadian and US-Americasn figures aren't that much better.)

That strikes me as odd, Walter. I spent two years in Germany in the late '60s and never saw a drunk German. I admit to passing on Oktoberfest, but did not avoid the available watering holes.

Well, regarding that over 20 million people throughout the United States (an estimated 10% of the population) have a serious problem with alcohol (number by the "National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism"/the " American Council on Alcoholism") the deads are equal to the USA or even lower.

Honestly, you seldom find those people at the "regular" waterholes. (Ask me.)

Sobering facts, Hinteler, so to speak... This does in fact make the Toronto SARS scare seem even more ridiculous, IMO.

cavfancier

Yes, in some way - you don't get alcoholism as a virus.

Hinteler, at least it puts things in perspective anyway, regarding annual death tolls in any country...personally, I think that the media was indeed over-hyping things regarding SARS in Toronto, and the latest figures suggest that the brief media blitz, and the WHO ban (which will be lifted tomorrow) will cost the city 1.2 billion dollars in lost revenue. There are definitely more virulent 'causes of death' in this world that require the sort of attention the media has put on SARS.

That's kind of what I meant to imply, Walter. No big problem in Germany.

Fuggedabout tranna. I'm afraid to go to Chicago. The CBC had huge coverage about West Nile Virus in Chicago this morning. Yikes! As i've said somewhere, here maybe, i can stay away from coughers etc., but i can't stay inside forever.

Heh heh, now that SARS is leaving the Toronto news, West Nile fear is in...might as well go ehBeth, it's coming here too. Breaking news: Jennifer Lopez refused to film her new movie in Toronto, due to the SARS scare. They decided to film the movie in Winnipeg instead, as it was apparently a good substitute for Chicago, where the story actually takes place Well, Winnipeg is windy anyway...

For those, who are interested in the world situation:
Sars: Global update

cav, you wouldn't be bashing the 'Peg, now would you?

According to the paper today, it's less to do with SARS and more to do with our Exchange District and its "Chicago-style" architecture.

Wait, we'll be the Hollywood of the north yet!

I may be a sweet, naive, gullible sort, and you may be a toughie from the 'Peg, McKenzie, but you can't convince me that JLo knows anything about architecture.

(don't forget, I love the 'Peg - so this is definitely NOT a slam on Portage and Main)

Right you are, ehBeth, I'm one tough cookie.

Costs are a big factor, too. The powers that be have been making a huge effort to lure films here. They offer a 35% tax credit on Manitoba labour. It seems to be paying off.

Glad to hear you love the 'Peg. :wink:

I love the 'Peg, and I've never even been there in the summer. My love is a cold winter love - great great people there.

Two strains of SARS!

Genome Sequences of Two SARS Virus Strains Confirmed
Scientists have confirmed the genomes of two different strains of the virus thought to be responsible for Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), which has so far claimed 391 lives worldwide. As part of an international endeavor to stop the spread of SARS, most of the genetic data was made public as soon as it became available. Now independent researchers have reviewed and verified the genetic sequences. The hope is that knowledge of the full virus genome will help efforts to contain the disease by aiding development of diagnostic tests, therapies or vaccines.

from sciam.com

Bah on SARS, 2 strains or not....I hate to put a 'value' on human life, but in Toronto, at highest count, there were 37 deaths from SARS, mostly elderly people, in poor health to begin with. The WHO ban on the city cost us an estimated 1.2 billion dollars in lost revenue. Sorry...seems a little kneejerk to me...I would certainly have preferred to not lose all my spring corporate work to cancellations over the last 2 months for an overblown scare campaign by the media and the WHO against Toronto. And no offence, but 391 lives worldwide is a piss in the bucket. More people die everyday from natural causes. SARS is hardly an epidemic.

And I love the 'Peg too, got plenty of relatives there

I agree Cav..... about the over-reaction to SARS.

SARS is hardly an "overblown" scare.

The WHO has severely down played the problem but do report it none-the-less. And the Media is overly-optomistic.

I decided to try and compile a record from the archives of updates, it's a bit incomplete here and there, some of it does not include an off-the-bat daily number if increases, and some of the increases are lower, such as when it hit 5000 cases, it is reported on I think the 28th, April as being 5050 and then the next day as being 5486, but they only report the increase as 211 or such, clearly a wrong increase, but I take the increase number as it is anyways, later on I'll probably do a more extensive compilation that would be more wholey accurate.

*EDIT* I should be hesitant actually to make the statement that they are underplaying the number of increases, they do mention that any descrepancies are due to discharged patients, however I should go over the numbers more to see if this makes up for the above example I gave.

SARS Data.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) Update on reported cases
The new data from China bring the total number of reported probable cases worldwide, dating back to 16 November, to 1323 cases and 49 deaths. When the data from China are excluded, today's figures represent an increase of 41 cases, largely concentrated in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of China, and one death, in Singapore, compared with yesterday. Full details are available on the WHO web site.

2) Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 1408 cases and 53 deaths have been reported from 13 countries. Romania is reporting its first 3 probable cases today. This represents an increase of 85 cases and 4 deaths compared with the previous day.

3) Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 1485 cases and 53 deaths have been reported from 13 countries. This represents an increase of 77 cases. No new deaths have occurred.Update on cases and countries

4) Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 1622 cases, with 58 deaths, have been reported from 13 countries. This represents an increase of 72 cases and 4 deaths since the last figures were compiled on Saturday.

5) Update on cases and countries
As of today and including the new data from China, a cumulative total of 2353 SARS cases and 84 deaths have been reported from 16 countries. This represents an increase of 83 cases and 5 deaths compared with yesterday. The deaths occurred in Canada (1), China (3), and Singapore (1).

6) Disease Outbreak Reported

As of today, a cumulative total of 2416 SARS cases and 89 deaths have been reported from 18 countries. This represents an increase of 63 cases and 5 deaths compared with yesterday. The deaths occurred in Hong Kong SAR (3), Malaysia (1), and Singapore (1). The death reported by Malaysia represents the first case reported in that country.


7) Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 2601 cases of SARS, with 98 deaths, have been reported from 17 countries. This represents an increase of 85 cases and 9 deaths compared with the last update of 5 April. The deaths occurred in Canada (2), China (4), and Hong Kong SAR (3).

8) Update on cases and countries

As of today, 2671 SARS cases with 103 deaths have been reported from 17 countries. This represents an increase of 70 cases and 5 deaths when compared with yesterday. The new deaths were reported in Canada (1), Hong Kong SAR (2), and Singapore (2). The additional cases were reported in Canada (1), China (11), Hong Kong SAR (45), France (1), Singapore (7), and the United States (7). Taiwan, China removed 2 cases from the list.


9) Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 2722 cases, with 106 deaths have been reported from 16 countries. This represents an increase of 51 cases and 3 deaths when compared with yesterday.

10) Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 2781 cases and 111 deaths have been reported from 17 countries. Increases occurred in Brazil (1), Canada (3), China (10), Hong Kong SAR (28), Germany (1), Malaysia (2), Singapore (8), and the United States (5). Deaths were reported in China (2) and Hong Kong SAR (3).


11) As of 10 April, 2781 SARS cases, with 111 deaths, have been reported to WHO from 17 countries on three continents. Some outbreaks have reassuring features. A high awareness of SARS symptoms among travellers and the medical and nursing professions has often resulted in good management of imported cases - prompt isolation of patients and management according to strict procedures of infection control. As a result, many countries having only a single or a few imported cases have experienced no further spread to hospital staff, families of patients and hospital visitors, or the community at large.

12) Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 3169 cases of SARS, with 144 deaths, have been reported to WHO from 21 countries. This represents an increase of 213 cases and 25 deaths since the last update on Saturday.

13) Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 3235 cases of SARS, with 154 deaths, have been reported from 22 countries. This represents an increase of 66 new cases and ten deaths compared with the previous day. Nine of the ten deaths occurred in Hong Kong SAR. One death was reported in Singapore.


14) Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 3461 cases with 170 deaths have been reported from 25 countries on five continents. This represents an increase of 72 new cases and 5 deaths since the last WHO update. The deaths occurred in Hong Kong SAR (4) and Singapore (1).


15) Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 3547 cases with 182 deaths have been reported from 25 countries. Compared with yesterday, 12 new deaths, all in Hong Kong SAR, have been reported.


16) Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 3947 probable cases with 228 deaths have been reported to WHO from 25 countries. The 11 new deaths were reported in China (6) and Hong Kong SAR (5).

17) Update on countries and cases
As of today, a cumulative total of 5663 probable cases with 372 deaths have been reported from 26 countries. This represents an increase of 211 new cases and 19 deaths when compared with yesterday. The new deaths were reported in China (11), Hong Kong SAR (7), and China, Taiwan (1). This was the first death in Taiwan, where the number of probable SARS cases has more than doubled, from 37 to 78, over the past week. China, Macao SAR reported its first probable case today.


18) Update on cases and countries

As of today, a cumulative total of 4439 cases with 263 deaths have been reported from 26 countries. This represents an increase of 158 new cases and 12 deaths compared with yesterday. The deaths occurred in Canada (2), China (4), Hong Kong SAR (4), and Singapore (2). Bulgaria reported its first case today.



19) Update on cases and countries


As of today, a cumulative total of 4649 cases with 274 deaths have been reported from 26 countries. This represents an additional 210 cases and 11 deaths when compared with yesterday. The new deaths were reported in China (5) and Hong Kong SAR (6).


20) Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 4836 cases with 293 deaths have occurred in 26 countries. This represents an increase of 190 new cases and 19 deaths compared with yesterday. The new deaths occurred in Canada (3), China (7), Hong Kong SAR (6), the Philippines (1), and Singapore (2).


21) More than 5000 cases worldwide
As of today, a cumulative total of 5050 probable SARS cases with 321 deaths have been reported from 26 countries. This represents an increase of 214 cases and 28 deaths when compared with the last report, issued on Saturday. The new deaths were reported from China (9), Hong Kong SAR (17), and Singapore (2).


22) Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 5462 probable cases with 353 deaths have been reported from 27 countries. This represents an increase of 226 new cases and 24 deaths when compared with yesterday.

Of the 226 new cases, 202 were reported today from China, of which 152 occurred in Beijing. Due to difficulties of information technology, figures received from Chinese authorities yesterday were not included in yesterday's cumulative update.

The 24 deaths occurred in Canada (2), China (9), Hong Kong SAR (12), and Singapore (1).


23) Update on countries and cases
As of today, a cumulative total of 5663 probable cases with 372 deaths have been reported from 26 countries. This represents an increase of 211 new cases and 19 deaths when compared with yesterday. The new deaths were reported in China (11), Hong Kong SAR (7), and China, Taiwan (1). This was the first death in Taiwan, where the number of probable SARS cases has more than doubled, from 37 to 78, over the past week. China, Macao SAR reported its first probable case today.


24) Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 5462 probable cases with 353 deaths have been reported from 27 countries. This represents an increase of 226 new cases and 24 deaths when compared with yesterday.

Of the 226 new cases, 202 were reported today from China, of which 152 occurred in Beijing. Due to difficulties of information technology, figures received from Chinese authorities yesterday were not included in yesterday's cumulative update.



25) Update on countries and cases
As of today, a cumulative total of 5663 probable cases with 372 deaths have been reported from 26 countries. This represents an increase of 211 new cases and 19 deaths when compared with yesterday. The new deaths were reported in China (11), Hong Kong SAR (7), and China, Taiwan (1). This was the first death in Taiwan, where the number of probable SARS cases has more than doubled, from 37 to 78, over the past week. China, Macao SAR reported its first probable case today.



26) Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 5865 probable cases with 391 deaths have been reported from 27 countries. This represents an increase of 212 additional cases and 19 deaths when compared with yesterday. The deaths occurred in China (11), Hong Kong (5), Taiwan (2), and Singapore (1). Poland reported its first case today.


27) Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 5462 probable cases with 353 deaths have been reported from 27 countries. This represents an increase of 226 new cases and 24 deaths when compared with yesterday.

Of the 226 new cases, 202 were reported today from China, of which 152 occurred in Beijing. Due to difficulties of information technology, figures received from Chinese authorities yesterday were not included in yesterday's cumulative update.


28) Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 6054 probable SARS cases with 417 deaths have been reported from 27 countries. This represents an increase of 207 new cases and 26 deaths when compared with yesterday. The new deaths were reported in Canada (2), China (11), Hong Kong SAR (8), and Taiwan (5).



29) Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 6234 probable cases with 435 deaths have been reported from 27 countries. This represents an increase of 191 new cases and 18 deaths compared with yesterday. The new deaths occurred in China (9) and Hong Kong SAR (9).


30) Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 6583 probable SARS cases with 461 deaths have been reported from 27 countries. This represents an increase of 364 new cases and 26 new deaths since the last report was compiled on Saturday.


31) Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 6727 probable SARS cases with 478 deaths have been reported from 29 countries. This represents an increase of 153 new cases and 17 new deaths compared with yesterday.

32) Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 6903 probable SARS cases and 495 deaths has been reported from 29 countries. This represents an increase of 186 new cases and 17 deaths compared with yesterday. The new deaths occurred in China (5), Hong Kong SAR (11) and Taiwan (1).


33) More than 7000 cases and 500 deaths reported globally
As of today, a cumulative total of 7183 probable cases of SARS and 514 deaths have been reported from 30 countries on six continents. This represents an increase of 144 new cases and 8 deaths when compared with yesterday. Of the new deaths, 6 were reported in China, and 2 were reported in Hong Kong SAR.

34) Update on cases and countries
As of today, a cumulative total of 7296 probable SARS cases with 526 deaths have been reported from 30 countries. This represents an increase of 119 cases and 12 deaths when compared with yesterday.

SARS increases over history.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1) 41

2) 85

3) 77

4) 72

5) 83

6) 63

7) 85

8) 70

9) 51

10) 63

11)

12) 213

13) 66

14) 72

15)

16)

17)

18) 158

19) 210

20) 190

21) 214

22) 226

23) 211

24) 226

25) 211

26) 212

27) 226

28) 207

29) 191

30) 364

31) 153

32) 186

33) 144

34) 119


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The situation is not as under control as WHO makes it seem, all these figures are increases in areas under strict quarantine and observence, there'll be a large problem if this manages to creep out of these areas, this.

Further more, I compiled the actual probable death rates to be a good 30%. Not the low estimated 6%, however they also tally it at about 30% (15% for those under 60 and 55% for those above 60).

However the recovery rate from SARS so far, is only less than 50%, as over 60% of those who are sick, are still sick.

Which means most of the ones who were sick from early on are the ones dying. Which means that the WHO's fears that SARS's death rate is MUCH higher is well founded.

They do not give information on those who died, so if many of those who died are from earlier on, then that would mean they are dying out of a much smaller group, and the death rate could very well be as high as 50%.

Which makes more sense, as it is closer to the average recovery rate which is about 45%...

You decide...it's a lot of info to go through, but it's better than just reading the daily headline "SARS on the RUN" or whatever crap they post now.

I get the impression from the media, that SARS is fairly of low risk.

Not as you say, that they blow this out of proportion, but this has a very large chance as spiraling out of control, for several reasons.

SARS has an incubation period of about 10 days, so someone travelling who got it just before they left, can spread it far and wide without anyone knowing for 10 days.

SARS, seems to be FAR more deadly in colder climates.

The recovery rate in Canada is only 33% where as in china it's about 40%, this seems "backwards" but China has a much larger problem, Canada had almost no problem and is more technological, and is having just as bad of problems.

My theory runs that SARS is much worse in cold areas, and so Canada is finding it harder to deal with it, but maybe Canada has just Old people that are sick.

Here's my Resource:

http://www.who.int/csr/sars/en/