Suvivor: Panama

I agree. Cirie is playing the game brilliantly. She deserves to win from a strategic (outwit) standpoint, and she has certainly outlasted most of them, but she doesn't have the physical endurance necessary to outplay the remaining survivors when it comes to challenges.

Winning this last immunity catapults Terry to the final three and the final immunity challenge.

If Terry loses the next immunity challenge and the others vote for him, all he has to do is pull the immunity idol out of his pocket and he's safe.

That's why the previews show Danielle throwing her hat in with Terry. Of the three remaining Casayans left, Danielle knows that Terry would choose to take her to the final two rather than Cirie or Aras--and the odds are in Terry's favor that he will win final immunity.

That just leaves the question who will be voted out next week. Cirie and Aras will be smart to oust Danielle. But, how will the vote actually go?

Terry will feel threatened by Aras because, of the remaining Casayans, Aras has the best chance among the three of winning the final immunity challenge if its an endurance contest. Danielle knows, in the pecking order, that she probably can't win the million if she's seated next to Aras or Cirie. Danielle would want to get rid of Aras first, because of his physical threat in the final immunity challenge, and then get rid of Cirie. Danielle's best chance of winning the million occurs if she is sitting next to Terry in the end.

Terry and Danielle will vote to oust Aras. What will Cirie do? Will she throw her hat in with Terry and Danielle to guarantee herself a spot in the final three? NOT WISE. Unless Cirie's plan is to win the final immunity challenge--a miracle at best--she can't possibly make it to the final two. Cirie cannot rely upon either Terry or Danielle to take her to the finals.

Even if it forces a tie--Cirie and Aras should vote to oust Terry's choice--Danielle. We'll see what happens next week!

But here's food for thought. IF Terry wins the next immunity challenge and teams up with Danielle, he could give her the immunity necklace, knowing he was safe because of the immunity idol. Thus guaranteeing that either Cirie or Aras will go home. He and Danielle would vote to oust Aras since he is the greater physical threat, thus if Cirie and Aras vote to oust Terry, the immunity idol comes out and Aras is gone.

If Terry does not win immunity, then this whole analysis was a waste of time. But it was fun anyway.

I dunno to think he failed at strategy, he's had a hugh mountain in front of him the whole time (to coin a phrase - he's been his own Army of One" - biggest target ever - and I wonder if for that reason alone strategy would have not mattered, and yep it is going to be real to win anybodys vote. (and that part is sad)
did Terry:
Outwit - not at all (total loss)
Outplay - the physical
Outlast - the physical

I think Terry might have a shot. First he is guaranteed to be in the final three. So say it is Aras, Cirie and Terry. If Terry wins then of course he will be there. If Aras wins who would he prefer to go against - Terry. If Cirie wins - she would prefer Terry. Now in the case with Danielle and any of the others. Would they choose Danielle or Terry - probably Terry as some spoke about Bruce's like of Danielle, but this is probably the more iffy of the choices.

Now say Terry gets to the final two. Danielle basically stabbed Courtney in the back and Shane. They are both emotional wrecks so there is a good chance out of spite they would vote for Terry. Terry's two buddies are almost a guarantee - there is four. Similar for Aras and Cirie. So as out there as it seems I do think Terry has a chance - he is the only one currently that has not stabbed some one so obviously in the back.

Oh, he definitely has a chance, I think he's the presumed winner at this point. I just think it's not as definite as it may seem. (And personally, I'm tired of him and would like to see him taken down a notch, and he already has a car plus the not insubstantial cash reward that all of the top 4 get -- #1 gets a million, of course, but numbers 2, 3, and 4 [and beyond that, too, I think] also get substantial cashola.)

Good point about who Aras or Cirie would bring with them. I think if Aras won immunity he might bring Cirie simply because he can't stand Terry and would enjoy ousting him so much, plus not wanting to give Terry even an outside chance at actually winning. Also Aras and Cirie seem to have some sort of an alliance that goes beyond whatever they had with Shane.

I do get bored with the player that is "too good". I usually like the underdog, personally. But with these strange characters you never really know how they are going to vote. I wonder if anyone is going to ask another completely off the wall question - what address does Fred Flintstone live at - and whoever gets closest gets his vote.

hmmmm .... isn't the final challenge usually a "see who can stand the longest on a little post in the hot sun"? If so, I think that Danielle (if she makes it to the final 3) could have a very good chance of winning that. She has flipflopped all over the place but ... that might play to her advantage at this point. The previews show her making an alliance with Terry, however it could just be a ruse. If she made an overture to Terry, I doubt that he would see anything underhanded. I wouldn't be surprised to see Cirie and Danielle band together -- get rid of Aras (when Terry saves himself with the immunity idol & gives the immunity necklace to his new best friend Danielle), and then shutout Terry in the final.

Who would Cirie want to stand next to, in front of the jury? Certainly not Aras.

ARGHHHH!!!!

WARNING, SPOILERS

Not... liking... the... suspense!!!

I was wondering what was up with having two episodes after it was down to the final four, now I know.

I knew Terry couldn't win 'em all. Good to see Aras on a roll. I actually liked him being totally competitive, it was kinda refreshing to have people not even pretend to like each other at that point. (Usually they're still strategizing and nicey-niceying.) But it was nice of him to apologize about the whole Terry making "disparaging remarks about women" thing.

I like Danielle but I'm so rooting for Cirie. I also really like that if she wins the tie-breaker, she will have earned a spot rather than just being carried along (which is its own kind of earning, earning people's affection and trust so they want to carry you, but still).

Did you see people's reactions when Cirie was talking about what she'd say if that was her final night vs. when Danille was talking? Courtney was an obvious one, there were others too, forget exactly who, but the jury reactions were majorly in favor of Cirie.

I thought Aras' comment to Cirie about "if your house could fit in there I wouldn't let you win a million dollars!" was interesting. I think it's very possible that a) he plans to bring her if he's in the position to make the decision, even though b) he knows that she'd likely win if the two of 'em are the final two.

Karmically, I think it'd be appropriate if Terry goes out next; he played well, so he gets the #3 spot money (not nothing) and a car; but his strategy sucked and he was selfish (keeping the immunity idol at points where giving it up would have helped him in the big picture) so he doesn't go further than that.

We'll see.

I have an absolutely horrible record of catching season finales on Survivor, I really want to see this one! (Sunday, May 14th, Sunday, May 14th...)

Just remember:

Mother's Day/Survivor

Mother = survivor!

Did anyone see the scenes for next week? I noticed in one they showed a glimpse of Danielle competing. Although I wouldn't doubt that they would slip in an old shot of her just to throw people off. Also in other scenes when they are making the fire - they show one with Danielle's flame being higher and in another they show Cirie's flame higher.

Shane was also making faces at Danielle - although Bruce seemed to smile at Danielle. I think Danielle will have a tough time winning, but any of the others could win. I think even Aras has a chance of winning against Cirie - even though they had words (who hasn't with Terry) - I think Terry would vote with Aras (competitive respect) and possibly the others from Terry's team.

Let's have all the fearless predictions.

Joe(Deadline Sunday)Nation

My gut feeling is:

Cirie wins the fire-making tie-breaker. Bye-bye Danielle.

Cirie or Aras win the next challenge; almost moot re: which one wins, as I think each would choose the other to go to final two. (Some tiny chance that if Cirie won she'd choose Terry, but I don't think so.) Bye bye Terry.

Cirie wins the whole thing. (And Aras gets the pretty-darn-good #2 spot money.)

However, I'm wary if my thinking has been herded in that direction. Cirie is an audience favorite (#2 behind Terry in the poll on their site) but favorites mean less in the final episode, since the producers have already done the job of getting people watching that show. In fact, with the cliff-hanger, I'm wondering if that means that Cirie is actually the loser of the tie-breaker -- that they want to bring those Cirie fans over to the final episode.

I saw a transcript of Shane's "Survivor Live" show and he was saying really nice things about Terry -- somehow I interpreted that as Terry not being in the final two. But Shane's wily, too, so who knows.

I would be so happy if you're right! I really like Cirie. I think she has played an excellent game. The previews of the next episode make it look like Cirie is kicking butt in the fire-building competition--but you know how the producers love to deceive us and that worries me.





Me too . . . I'm worried . . . and I will be watching and holding my breath! Darn cliff-hanger--darn sneaky (and MEAN) producers if they're giving us false hope for our favorite contestant! LOL

I think so too (Cirie winning fire challenge) - with that "slip" of Danielle in the clip I think it was to intentionally mislead the audience.

However, if Danielle wins, then I predict it will be Danielle in the final two with whichever guy winning. If Cirie wins, I think it is tough to call. I think it is most likely that Terry would win the immunity and not sure who he would take. I basically think in this case - it is up for grabs - but Cirie probably has the best chance, Aras a close second.

Ditto to all of the above.

I so want Cirie to win (Terry is not hurting, money-wise, as a commercial pilot, and Danielle & Aras have plenty of time and opportunity in front of them -- and I think Cirie has played an excellent game) but I've never picked a winner. Well, except for Ethan in Africa.

Here's my dream: Cirie wins the fire thing. Either Aras or Terry win the immunity and they pick her. She wins because no one win pick either of them.

Here's my prediction: Dannielle wins fire thing. Same deal. Terry picks her. Or Aras picks her. IF Terry, Terry wins. If Aras, Aras wins.


Joe(Go make the popcorn)Nation

Less than an hour!

Has the finale ever been on Mother's Day before? I'm allowing myself to hope that's a sign... (only one mother in the final four...)

Well, even though my prediction came true, that ending stunk. The final challenge was unfair. Let's see... you take floating lilly pads, all the same size and weight, and you factor in your basic water displacement formulas and Voila, before anyone gets on, you predict that the lightest competitor will win, and she did.

Not picking Terry for the final two was a crime. Like it or not, like him or not, he was the best competitor that game has ever seen.

Joe(I went to bed after the vote- who cares.)Nation

My prediction was exact in all details last night. Yep, sure was. At 8:00 I predicted that the storm then heading our way would cause us to lose power right before finding out who would get to the final two. And guess what? Right on cue, just before Danielle went to vote, bang, power goes.

My 15 year old Survivor fan was not in the least bit happy. And when did the powere return you ask? Of course it was at about 11:12. Guess my son will make me view the finals by using CBS on Demand. Or maybe he will be happy just telling him who won.

Aw, that sucks, CoastalRat! (Let me know if you want a run-down, my comments here will be more general.)

Strangely (given Joe's response, and I usually agree with him), this was one of the most satisfying final four results I've ever seen.

Yes, it sucked that Cirie lost the tie-breaker (Debra Law, we knew those producers were up to no good, dammit), but she so had a chance and she just didn't follow through. She kinda just shut down as soon as she got the first spark and blaze.

So what we have:

- The guy who played the best physical game but sucked at the social/ outwit game finished third and got a kick-ass car and the #3 spot money.

- The gal who played the best social/ outwit game but sucked at the physical game finished fourth and got a kick-ass car (from viewers) and the #4 spot money.

- They guy who was second-best at both -- second-best physical player, second-best player of the social/ outwit game -- won the whole thing.

That makes sense, that feels right.

Danielle doesn't really fit in there -- she was mostly just pulled along, and she still gets the #2 money -- though she did step it up at two of the final three challenges (if you count the fire-making one).

She was also pissing me off with her whole "I'm so proud of myself that I won" yadda yadda thing both for what Joe already said about it being rigged, and because there was a clear (non-verbal) communication between her and Aras -- "If I jump off will you take me to final 2?"/ "Yes" /"Cowabunga!" Maybe he could have stuck it out, maybe not, but he jumped off.

Anyway, as soon as Cirie lost, I was rooting for Aras, so was really happy he won.

Ahhh, now I have my Thursday nights back... for a while...