3
   

Bush won't tolerate nuclear Iran

 
 
old europe
 
  1  
Reply Sun 12 Feb, 2006 11:32 pm
Ah. Okay. I haven't seen it mentioned on this thread, but okay.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Sun 12 Feb, 2006 11:34 pm
old europe wrote:
I personally think this would be the time for a multinational effort of some kind. After all, Britain, France, Germany, the US, Russia and China agreed to bring the matter before the UN Security Council, and the IAEA absolutely endorsed the effort.

This would be an opportunity to act on a truly multinational basis.
But then, who cares about international relationships, right?


I agree it is indeed time for an effective internationasl effort. However I believe that will require more will and fortitude than France, Germany are willing to provide. The Russians and Chinese are likely to instead seek some local strategic advantage out of delaying or avoiding any kind of meaningful action.

With all this already indicated by the waffling of these nations, I believe it is a bit premature for you to indulge in cheap shots about the United States "spurning" such "international cooperation" when, in fact, none exists.
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Sun 12 Feb, 2006 11:46 pm
Mirroring my thoughts exactly George when I stated I thought we'd likely have to go largely alone. Russia followed by France and Germany have now recognized Hamas instead of joining us in our insistence that they publicly recognize Israel's right to exist first. Some display of solidarity, that.
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Sun 12 Feb, 2006 11:47 pm
Mirroring my thoughts exactly George when I stated I thought we'd likely have to go largely alone. Russia followed by France and Germany have now recognized Hamas instead of joining us in our insistence that they publicly recognize Israel's right to exist first. Some display of solidarity, that.
0 Replies
 
old europe
 
  1  
Reply Sun 12 Feb, 2006 11:51 pm
Ah, but George, I was commenting on other user's posts here, not on the entire United States, you see? And suggesting something like an unilateral strike prompted me calling for a multinational effort. That's easy to see, n'est-ce pas?

And then, I'm not entirely following your argument that France or Germany aren't willing to go along and take a tough stance. I was, for example, quite surprised when Chirac announced that France would shift its doctrine for use of nuclear weapons... It sounded to me as if that was in direct connection to the Iran situation.

I'm not sure about Germany, even though there are German troops in Afghanistan and, altogether, 10,000 are deployed abroad in numerous missions.
0 Replies
 
old europe
 
  1  
Reply Sun 12 Feb, 2006 11:55 pm
OCCOM BILL wrote:
Russia followed by France and Germany have now recognized Hamas


Where did you hear that? As far as I know, Germany is not even going to talk to Hamas. You must be mistaken, OCCOM BILL.
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Feb, 2006 12:05 am
old europe wrote:
Ah, but George, I was commenting on other user's posts here, not on the entire United States, you see? And suggesting something like an unilateral strike prompted me calling for a multinational effort. That's easy to see, n'est-ce pas?
Difference noted. I agree.

Quote:
And then, I'm not entirely following your argument that France or Germany aren't willing to go along and take a tough stance. I was, for example, quite surprised when Chirac announced that France would shift its doctrine for use of nuclear weapons. It sounded to me as if that was in direct connection to the Iran situation.

I'm not sure about Germany, even though there are German troops in Afghanistan and, altogether, 10,000 are deployed abroad in numerous missions.


I agree that the new German Government may well be more willing to act publically than its predecessor under Schroeder. I am skeptical about France and Chirac. French announcements about their nuclear doctrine are easy to issue, but don't count for much in the world.

We shall see in the days ahead what the ageing populations and sclerotic governments of Europe are able to sustain in a still harsh and competitive real world. I wouldn't bet on them: would you?
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Feb, 2006 12:12 am
old europe wrote:
OCCOM BILL wrote:
Russia followed by France and Germany have now recognized Hamas


Where did you hear that? As far as I know, Germany is not even going to talk to Hamas. You must be mistaken, OCCOM BILL.
I sincerely hope so... and it was on a television news channel so I don't have a handy source. They said something like "Russia has agreed to host Hamas leaders in Moscow, and France and Germany quickly followed suit. I'll look around and hope I can't find verification.
0 Replies
 
old europe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Feb, 2006 12:12 am
georgeob1 wrote:
We shall see in the days ahead what the ageing populations and sclerotic governments of Europe are able to sustain in a still harsh and competitive real world. I wouldn't bet on them: would you?


<sigh>

I usually enjoy reading your posts, but really do dislike continental Europe, dontya? I agree, we'll see. And we will see what the US are going to do.

But still, it should be noted that Germany, France and Britain were at least the first ones to call for action, and to refer the matter to the Security Council. A first step, IMO. And they did so before the IAEA backed their stance, or before the United States even commented on the whole issue.
0 Replies
 
old europe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Feb, 2006 12:14 am
OCCOM BILL wrote:
old europe wrote:
OCCOM BILL wrote:
Russia followed by France and Germany have now recognized Hamas


Where did you hear that? As far as I know, Germany is not even going to talk to Hamas. You must be mistaken, OCCOM BILL.
I sincerely hope so... and it was on a television news channel so I don't have a handy source. They said something like "Russia has agreed to host Hamas leaders in Moscow, and France and Germany quickly followed suit. I'll look around and hope I can't find verification.


Yes, do so. I'd like to know which TV channel that was, too. Sloppy journalism. Bad. Tsktsktsk.
0 Replies
 
old europe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Feb, 2006 12:29 am
Last week, the Conference on Security Policy was in Munich. I thought I might as well post again what has been said on that occasion re Iran.....


Quote:
Merkel, Rumsfeld Urge World to Act on Iran Threat

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld urged the world to prevent the Islamic republic from developing a nuclear weapon.

Merkel told the Munich Conference on Security Policy that Iran had "overstepped the mark" with its nuclear program, while Rumsfeld said the world "does not want a nuclear Iran."

"We want to prevent and we must prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons," Merkel said in her speech. "The concerns and fears over Iran's nuclear program are legitimate."

The UN's nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), voted on Saturday to report Iran to the UN Security Council, paving the way to possible sanctions over its atomic program.

Iran retaliated by saying it would begin full-scale uranium enrichment and limit inspections by IAEA officials.

Merkel said Iran still had a chance to avoid the sanctions by accepting a Russian proposal to allow Iranian uranium enrichment to take place in Russia, which would prevent Tehran from mastering sensitive nuclear technology.

She called on Iran to consider the compromise as a "window of opportunity."



Merkel alludes to Nazi rise in speech on Iran

The German leader had strong words for Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has called for Israel to be "wiped off the map" and has branded the Holocaust a "myth."

"A president who denies the existence of Israel and the Holocaust cannot expect to receive any tolerance from Germany," Merkel said.

She compared Ahmadinejad's statements to when Adolf Hitler came to power and began threatening to exterminate European Jews. "Remember that in 1933 many people said it was just rhetoric," Merkel said.

The international community "must fight these beginnings now," she said.

[...]
0 Replies
 
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Feb, 2006 12:35 am
old europe wrote:
georgeob1 wrote:
We shall see in the days ahead what the ageing populations and sclerotic governments of Europe are able to sustain in a still harsh and competitive real world. I wouldn't bet on them: would you?


<sigh>

I usually enjoy reading your posts, but really do dislike continental Europe, dontya? I agree, we'll see. And we will see what the US are going to do.

But still, it should be noted that Germany, France and Britain were at least the first ones to call for action, and to refer the matter to the Security Council. A first step, IMO. And they did so before the IAEA backed their stance, or before the United States even commented on the whole issue.


I agree with all that and, in addition, readily confess to my rather obvious dislike of contemporary European political ideas and the factors to which I ascribe them. I believe they are the legacy of the folly of the European powers in the late 19th and early 20th centuries, the horrible destruction of WWI, and its aftershocks which continue today. I have spent a good deal of time in Europe and am a great admirer of many features of Spanish, Portuguese, Italian, Greek, French, and Polish (the places I know directly) culture and life. The art and literature of Europe, from Russia to Portugual are beyond compare. Instead, it is the contemporary complacency and addiction to comforting illusions in European political life that I earnestly despise. OK by me if Europe is resigned to a comfortable retirement and decline. However please don't present it as a meaningful response to the very real challenges before us -- many of which have their roots in earlier European actions.

I suspect the Bush Administration has decided to test the European will in the matter of Iran. We shall see what comes.
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Feb, 2006 12:38 am
old europe wrote:
Yes, do so. I'd like to know which TV channel that was, too. Sloppy journalism. Bad. Tsktsktsk.
Wasn't my TV so I'm not sure. Perhaps I misunderstood since I wasn't watching or paying particular attention at the time. This is as close as I can come up with so far, which I'm happy to report is a damn sight better than what I thought I heard. Though still NOT GOOD.


Quote:
Hamas to clarify stand on issues at Moscow talks
Agencies




Occupied Jerusalem: Hamas leaders on Sunday said they don't expect Russia to impose conditions for their trip to Moscow this month for talks.

Israel's foreign minister cautioned the international community against going down the "slippery slope" of legitimising the militant group.

Russian President Vladimir Putin extended the invitation to Hamas last week, following its sweeping victory in Palestinian elections last month.

The invitation, later supported by France, infuriated Israel, which fears the international resolve to shun the militant group is weakening...
0 Replies
 
DontTreadOnMe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Feb, 2006 01:59 pm
i dunno...

on one hand it seems to me that as hamas iwas the majority winner in a valid election, we risk the charge of being hypocritical regarding democracy. either we believe in it or we don't. same with iran.

i don't feel like the refusal to meet directly with north korea has really worked in our favor.

amanieajad (?) and l'il kim are both pretty repugnant, but maybe we would have more success meeting with them personally.

if nothing elese, it would offer an opportunity to get right in their faces and let 'em know what's what.
0 Replies
 
old europe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Feb, 2006 06:10 pm
georgeob1 wrote:
the ageing populations and sclerotic governments of Europe



Some thoughts on that.

You're talking about ageing populations, sclerotic governments, and about how "Europe is resigned to a comfortable retirement and decline" - in contrast to what? The United States? We had the discussion of population growth in the US vs Europe before, but I don't think the difference is hardly what you purport it to be.

For example, the current fertility level in the US is about 2.1 births per woman. That's higher than in the EU-15. Nevertheless, it's an average of the whole population. In other words: it is not the non-Hispanic White population fertility level. Quite the contrary. The projections of the US Census Bureau assume a decline in the non-Hispanic White population to about 53 percent by the year 2050.

The Bureau further projects that, by then, 16 percent of the population would be Black; 23 percent would be Hispanic origin; 10 percent would be Asian and Pacific Islander; and about 1 percent would be American Indian, Eskimo, and Aleut.

http://www.census.gov/population/www/img/pop-profile/page9.gif


Something to keep in mind.

Aging populations are another topic, but again not too much of a difference here. Median age of the US population is supposed to steadily increase from 35.5 in 2000 to 39.1 in 2035, then decrease slightly to 39.0 by 2050. (The reason for the peak are, of course, the baby boomers....).


Now, all we have to do is to put this in context re Iran, right?
0 Replies
 
OCCOM BILL
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Feb, 2006 06:14 pm
We can get in there faces without bilateral talk. Not meeting directly eliminates the plausible deniability of the blackmail terms that Kim would no doubt seek to regain. Why provide the opportunity for him to claim we're unfair while denying the blackmail fishing trip he would no doubt be on? Hamas is a terrorist organization and will remain so until they announce otherwise. I don't think we've asked for anything unreasonable to request they recognize their neighbor's right to exist before we recognize the slim possibility they are now prepared to act like statesmen. Indeed, even if they do recognize Israel, we'd be cutting them one huge benefit of the doubt to recognize them at all. Obviously we'd want to, but what are the real odds even with the concession it wouldn't be a dog and pony show... designed to get money and position?

The policy of refusing to negotiate with terrorists is the single best way to discourage terrorism. I'd be very against any policy that rewards terrorism with an opportunity to make demands. Slippery slope to appeasement, that.
0 Replies
 
JustWonders
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Feb, 2006 06:30 pm
DontTreadOnMe wrote:

amanieajad (?)


Yeah - doozie of a name to spell. Just type "Ahmadiwacko" Smile

We'll know who you mean :wink:
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Feb, 2006 09:58 pm
OCCOM BILL wrote:
Finn d'Abuzz wrote:
Yes, if two people are considering killing themselves for a cause, if one of them truly believes that doing so is a ticket to heaven, it will be easier for that person to detonate the vest of dynamite.
Thank you for conceding the obvious… finally.

This obvious argument, however, has an applicability to the overall issue of about 1%. I can appreciate your desire to compel me to state the obvious, but I'm not sure what difference the obvious makes.

Finn d'Abuzz wrote:
The implication of your argument though is that this is some hugely significant advantage for a religious tyrant as opposed to a secular tyrant, and this just isn't the case.
No, the implication remains that the charismatic fanatic that uses religion in his pitch can offer the faithful fool threats and promises the other charismatic fanatics cannot. As I've said all along; it is a matter of likelihood, not necessity. Now all you've left to concede is that an eternity in paradise and getting to skip eternal damnation is a damn sight more compelling than the glory of gun shootin in your honor.

Here again, I must concede that all things being equal, eternity in paradise is preferable to a role in mythos, but all things are not equal.

You are making an enormous assumption that those who blow themselves up for an Islamic related cause are doing so for the promise of paradise.

Some idiots (holy or otherwise) may be doing so, but I would argue that the majority are compelled by a far more complex set of motivations.

It seems you want to win this argument in the most narrow of margins. Fine -- you win.


Finn d'Abuzz wrote:
I don't know how Hitler, Stalin or Mao tse Tung could have been more successful in terms of enthralling nations and influencing citizens to do horrible things.
Sure you do. They could have succeeded. More over, they could have permanently changed the minds of sufficient numbers to have their movements become… a religion.

Well, that just potty. Since when does success mean permanence? What ideology, what charasmatic leader, in all of history, has effected a permanent change?

Bill, I have a heck of a lot of respect for your postings, but here you are trying to force arguments that may, in the abstract have meaning, but in the practcal are just silly.



Finn d'Abuzz wrote:
OCCOM BILL wrote:
God's will is far more compelling than the Furor's or Dear Leader's because He can make promises and threats the others cannot.


This is clearly not the case. First because it is only the rare fanatic who is motivated to action based soley on his perception of God's will, and secondly because both Hitler and Stalin managed to amass an undeniably large and effective support structure not only without the need for promises or threats in the afterlife, but in spite of the spiritual promises and threats of their opponents.
You're circumventing the point… which is a matter of degrees, not absolutes. The religious equivalent to a Hitler or Stalin could amass the same, use all the same arguments of country, family and honor and threats of horrendous proportions right here on earth… AND back it up with promises of paradise and avoidance of hell. This is something the secular charismatic fanatic could never do.

Finn d'Abuzz wrote:
It may be comforting, for some, to think that there is a force outside of human nature that can cause us to engage in or tolerate unspeakable acts, but that is not the case. Not religion, nor nationalism, nor communisim, nor any other ism is responsible for the evil deeds of men. Men are.
No argument here. I wasn't claiming otherwise. I illustrated the advantage the religious charismatic fanatic has over other isms in convincing men to behave their worst. Your continued denial of this obvious point is mind-boggling.
0 Replies
 
DontTreadOnMe
 
  1  
Reply Mon 13 Feb, 2006 10:31 pm
OCCOM BILL wrote:
The policy of refusing to negotiate with terrorists is the single best way to discourage terrorism. I'd be very against any policy that rewards terrorism with an opportunity to make demands. Slippery slope to appeasement, that.


i understand your meaning. problem is, in the case of hamas and amahdiewacko ( Laughing ), they really are the elected leaders.

i do agree that they really would be much more credible if they lost the gatts in a way similar to the ira (if they ever really did..) did.
0 Replies
 
blatham
 
  1  
Reply Tue 14 Feb, 2006 05:32 am
Meanwhile, back at the other hate-fomenting ranch...

Quote:
Israel has in effect "annexed" the Jordan Valley, or eastern strip of the West Bank, by severely restricting the movements of Palestinians inside it, it was claimed yesterday.

The accusation was made by B'tselem, a leading Israeli human rights organisation, following investigations by B'tselem and the newspaper Ha'aretz which showed that some 200,000 Palestinian West Bank residents are systematically prevented from entering the Jordan Valley area, including farmers seeking to cultivate their own land and seasonal farm workers who used to work there regularly.

The Jordan Valley is politically highly sensitive because by remaining under Israeli control it would further substantially restrict the scale of any Palestinian state. Ehud Olmert, the acting Prime Minister, while being careful not to be specific about the fate of Israeli settlements in the area when he foreshadowed further West Bank withdrawals last week, has made it clear that Israel would maintain control of the border with Jordan.
http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article345298.ece
0 Replies
 
 

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