You needn't concern yourself with my probability estimation performance; though I don't frequent casinos or play lotteries, I've been relatively satisfied with the results of my work in the real estate, securities and commodities markets over the past few decades, and I haven't been surprised by very many political contests over roughly the same period. I haven't always been pleased by the political developments, mind you, but I've been unsurprised by them. As for martket performance, well, my portfolio consistently performs comfortably within a profit curve, upmarket or down. You might get a kick out of checking my track record on such things here on A2K - for years now, some folks have just about made an industry outta tellin' me why my projections, financial and political, are totally wrong. What really bugs them folk is the way it turns out; I ain't been all that wrong, and that's cost a few of my honorable and respected opponents not a little money and embarrassment.
Had some fun with this very subject, "My Track Record",
Way Back Here.