Monitoring Biden and other Contemporary Events

Came across an article excerpted from a new book specifically about the housing crisis in the USA

The housing crunch has been well documented in high-cost big cities, where rents and mortgages break the bank. Now it has moved into the rest of the country.

The culprit is too little housing, and it began two decades ago. In the three years leading up to the Great Recession, homebuilders started about two million homes a year. That number plunged during the crisis and never fully rebounded. Since 2010, builders have started about 1.1 million new homes a year on average — far below the 1.6 million needed to keep up with population growth. America is millions of homes behind, and it gets worse each year.

I spent a week this summer reporting in Kalamazoo, Mich., which isn’t an obvious candidate for a housing crisis. But prices exploded as the supply of homes fell behind the need. Now even middle-class families earning six figures struggle to make ends meet there, and Michigan lawmakers are subsidizing developers who build for those residents. The Times published my article about it this morning.

In today’s newsletter, I’ll explain how this happened nationwide, why it could take a long time to fix and what policymakers are doing about it.

Skittish builders

Cities and states understand they have a housing problem. To increase the pace of construction, many have cut back regulatory barriers — like zoning and environmental rules — that make housing slow and expensive to build. Since 2018, for instance, states including California, Oregon, Montana and Arizona have passed laws to allow duplexes and small apartment buildings in neighborhoods that once contained only single-family homes.

But the nation’s housing shortage isn’t only about zoning in cities. For one thing, developers everywhere find it harder to raise money, and homeowners find it harder to get loans. That’s because banks and the government, in a quest to prevent another housing bubble, have raised lending standards and made mortgages harder to get.

For another, builders simply aren’t putting up subdivisions at the rate they once did. They’re cautious about overbuilding after the losses they incurred in the 2008 crisis, and they’ve become reluctant to invest and expand before they know they have a winning hand.

For instance, many homebuilders moved away from off-the-shelf (“on spec”) homes; now they prefer customers to prepay for properties before they’re built. Land developers — companies that take a piece of dirt and add basic infrastructure like streets, plumbing and power, creating the lots where new homes are built — have also cut back. The number of vacant developed lots, or places where a homebuilder could start construction tomorrow, is still 40 percent below its pre-Great Recession level, said Ali Wolf, chief economist at Zonda, a data and consulting firm.

What’s happened in Kalamazoo and around the country is that older, cheaper units have either fallen into uninhabitable disrepair or been sold to investors who rehab them and raise the rents. Rehabs like that are necessary, but without a constant pipeline of new construction, there aren’t “new old” buildings for the millions of families who need lower rents.

To combat this, both Kalamazoo County and Michigan have expanded housing aid to middle-income households that used to be ineligible. The hope is that this and other subsidies will encourage builders to expand if they believe they’ll find buyers and renters who can afford the homes they make.

It’s part of a nationwide shift. Housing assistance used to focus on poverty. Now it’s also becoming a middle-class support program. Shades of the same idea are in Vice President Kamala Harris’s housing plan, which calls for assistance for both first-time home buyers and developers who build housing for them.

Cities and states are changing where and how housing is built; Republicans and Democrats agree on the urgency, and housing was a theme at both political conventions this summer. (Barack Obama and Bill Clinton mentioned it in their speeches this week.) But those changes will be measured in decades because we fell so far behind. In the meantime, millions of Americans are stuck.

People I know at that job are struggling to pay for groceries and selling plasma to make ends meet.

Written by a Jewish author, called Jerusalem Demsas, who is now working for the Jewish publication. the Atlantic times.

Written by a Jewish author, called Jerusalem Demsas, who is now working for the Jewish publication. the Atlantic times.

....stowing jumbuck in tuckerbag billabong nazis....

Godwin himself says his law no longer applies when talking about real Nazis like Trump.

I was surprised that he even opened the link!

No record of this anywhere, but you're a regular BS artist, so we will just add that to the list of your BS here.

I’ve never said that just because you’re invoking the Nazis you’re losing the argument. If you’re going to compare somebody to Hitler or the Nazis or raise the specter of the Holocaust, be sure you’ve got your facts right. But there’s nothing categorically wrong with Biden’s — or anyone else’s — comparison of Trump calling people vermin or talking about blood poisoning to Hitler.

When you regularly cut and paste three page tomes of "information" that you somehow think supports your agenda, can you really blame us for avoiding your "link"?

I mean, pretending that the sub-prime mortgage scam that saw literally millions of Americans booted out of their own houses, has nothing to with the housing situation today?

The culprit is too little housing, and it began two decades ago. In the three years leading up to the Great Recession, homebuilders started about two million homes a year. That number plunged during the crisis and never fully rebounded. Since 2010, builders have started about 1.1 million new homes a year on average — far below the 1.6 million needed to keep up with population growth. America is millions of homes behind, and it gets worse each year.

Enjoy your ignorance, because it's a nice place for you to feel at home.

Last night the Boston Globe published a leaked email from a top volunteer with the Trump campaign, former Massachusetts Republican Party vice chair Tom Mountain, telling volunteers that the Trump campaign “no longer thinks New Hampshire is winnable” and is “pulling back” from that important swing state. He urged volunteers to turn their attention instead to Pennsylvania. After the story dropped, the Trump campaign cut ties with Mountain.

Stephen Collinson of CNN and Isaac Arnsdorf, Josh Dawsey, and Marianne LeVine of the Washington Post reported today that Trump’s team has given up on trying to get Trump to talk about the economy and other issues voters care about. The former president has decided to spend the rest of the campaign attacking Vice President Harris to destroy her popularity and drive voters away from her, rather than trying to attract them to himself. The Washington Post reporters noted that likely voters view Trump unfavorably and his team has concluded that while he can’t improve his own standing, he can damage hers.

Collinson dubbed Trump’s plans a “feral political offensive.”

It is not clear that this will work. As Collinson notes, Harris has refused to get dragged into the gutter with Trump, and Sarah Longwell of The Bulwark, who studies focus groups, notes that voters appear to want to put the nastiness of the past several years behind them. Still, the media-tracking company AdImpact reported that between August 23 and August 29, 57% of the total television spending for political ads was on Republican attacks on Harris.

Trump also continues to demand that Republicans support his attempt to suppress voting. Having failed to pass any of the necessary appropriations bills before going on August recess, Congress will be in a rush when it comes back into session next week. It needs to fund the government before the end of the fiscal year on September 30 in order to prevent a partial shutdown. Last Thursday, Trump told right-wing podcast host Monica Crowley that he would “shut down the government in a heartbeat” unless the government funding package includes the Safeguard American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act—which would give credence to the idea that noncitizens are voting in national elections despite the fact it is already illegal—and a bill restricting legal immigration.

Zeeshan Aleem of MSNBC today took public notice of Trump’s “deteriorating ability to clearly communicate.” His speeches “seem to be growing more discursive and difficult to comprehend by the day,” Aleem wrote. “Those speeches are making it hard, if not impossible, for people listening to them to understand what he wants to do with his power in office, and they’re reportedly turning off voters.” A reporter for The Guardian pointed out that attendees at Trump’s rallies are leaving as he rambles for nearly two hours, and complaining that he is “babbling.”

For his part, Trump says his wandering speech is deliberate. He calls it “the weave.” I’ll talk about, like, nine different things, and they all come back brilliantly together, and it’s like, and friends of mine that are, like, English professors, they say, ‘It's the most brilliant thing I've ever seen.’”

Aleem notes that this less-focused, less-capable Trump would be exceptionally dangerous in office a second time. And yet, he was dangerous enough the first time. Today Adam Klasfeld and Ryan Goodman of Just Security released a study showing at least twelve times that Trump used the power of the presidency to retaliate against his political enemies. They note that there is no evidence that President Joe Biden or anyone else at the Biden White House ever took similar actions.

John McCain’s son Jimmy today announced that he has switched his voter registration from Republican to Democrat and will work to elect Vice President Harris and Minnesota governor Tim Walz in 2024. The younger McCain enlisted in the Marine Corps at 17 and is now an intelligence officer in the 158th Infantry Regiment of the Arizona Army National Guard. He said he is speaking out because Trump’s conduct at Arlington National Cemetery was a “violation.”

Last Friday, just before the long weekend, Trump announced that he would vote against a Florida ballot measure that would essentially enshrine in the Florida state constitution the abortion rights formerly protected by the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision. When Trump had bowed to popular support for abortion rights and expressed uneasiness at the state’s current six-week ban—a cutoff reached before most women know they’re pregnant—antiabortion activists launched fierce attacks on him. So, on Friday, Trump switched his position and announced he would vote against restoring access to abortion in Florida.

That announcement has given wings to the Democrats’ messaging about Republicans’ determination to end abortion rights. It did not help the Republicans that more videos have been unearthed in which Republican vice presidential nominee J.D. Vance said that “a childless elite” is ruling the country. He went on to excoriate this elite for what he claimed was their pride that they didn’t have children and that they had abortions, and said “they look down on people who invest their time and their future in their children. And that is a dangerous place to live as a country.” Even a right-wing Newsmax interviewer suggested that he was “painting this group with perhaps a broad brush?”

On October 1, in Louisiana, a law will go into effect that reclassified the drug misoprostol as a controlled dangerous substance. Misoprostol can be used for abortion. It is also used for routine reproductive care and during medical emergencies to treat postpartum hemorrhage. It is on the World Health Organization’s list of essential medications, a list containing those medications that are the most effective and safe to meet a health care system’s most important needs. After antiabortion activists targeted the drug, Louisiana governor Jeff Landry signed a law reclassifying it as a controlled dangerous substance. The reclassification means that the drug will no longer be easily available on obstetric hemorrhage carts.

“Take it off the carts?” one doctor said to Lorena O’Neil of the Louisiana Illuminator. “That’s death. That’s a matter of life or death.”

The Harris campaign said: “Let’s be clear: Donald Trump is the reason Louisiana women who are suffering from miscarriages or bleeding out after birth can no longer receive the critical care they would have received before Trump overturned Roe. Because of Trump, doctors are scrambling to find solutions to save their patients and are left at the whims of politicians who think they know better. Trump is proud of what he’s done. He brags about it. And if he wins, he will threaten to bring the crisis he created for Louisiana women to all 50 states.”

Vice President Harris’s campaign started its “Fighting for Reproductive Freedom” bus tour today in Palm Beach, Florida, where it drove past the Trump Organization’s Mar-a-Lago club. The bus will make at least 50 stops across the country.

Pollster Tom Bonier today continued his examination of new registrants to vote. This time his focus was North Carolina. The pattern he has found across the country continues: “surges in registration are being driven by women.” In North Carolina, he writes, the number of registrants was almost 50% higher during the week of July 21 than in the same week in 2020, and the gender gap was +12 women, compared to +6 women in 2020. The new registrants were +6 Democratic, and 43% were younger than 30.

The Harris-Walz campaign today joined the Democratic National Committee in announcing a transfer of nearly $25 million to support Democratic candidates in down-ballot state and federal races. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee will get $10 million each in hopes of supporting a Democratic majority in each chamber of Congress in the new administration.

The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, the organization devoted to winning state legislatures, will receive $2.5 million. The Democratic Governors Association and the Democratic Attorneys General Association will get $1 million each.

Finally, today, a federal judge issued a preliminary injunction to stop the Trump campaign from playing the song he likes to dance to at his rallies: “Hold On, I’m Coming.” The estate of Isaac Hayes Jr., the artist who co-wrote the song, filed a copyright infringement lawsuit against Trump, his campaign, and a number of his allies, noting that they have never obtained a public performance license for the song although they have used it at least 133 times.

Desultory Don Would Rather Whine Than Win
Digby Sept 4


One of the articles of faith about the 2020 election among the MAGA crowd is that Joe Biden couldn’t possibly have won the election because he “campaigned from his basement” and never spoke before the big crowds as Donald Trump did. Biden didn’t campaign from his basement, of course, but he did run a very non-traditional campaign because the whole country was under a modified lockdown due to the COVID 19 pandemic. Large indoor gatherings that did take place, such as the one Trump held in Tulsa during the summer were super-spreader events that ended up with many people getting sick and some dying. That fall, Donald Trump himself showed up at a presidential debate knowingly infected and he soon ended up in the hospital and came close to dying himself.

Unlike Trump, Biden followed the advice of the scientists and they found ways to campaign without exposing themselves and the public unnecessarily. Despite all that, Trump and the right wing media insisted that Biden must have cheated because he didn’t barnstorm all over the country.

So what are we to make of the fact that in this campaign Trump can barely rouse himself to leave his cushy surroundings at Mar-a-lago and is more likely to be found on the golf course than giving a speech or holding a rally. Sure, does that but at a much slower pace than he did in his first two campaigns. He’s doing some non-traditional media, appearing on podcasts and giving interviews over the phone or at Mar-a-lago and he’s appeared at some right wing media confabs and made a foray to a plant in Pennsylvania last week. But the events are few and far between compared to the past.

He even skipped the traditional labor day blitz that every presidential candidate does as the kick-off to the fall campaign. Even if they have nothing positive to say about unions, Republican candidates always take advantage of the fact that people have a day off and are waking up to the fact that the campaign has begun. They usually fly around to various venues and hold rallies or show up at the state fair, as Kamala Harris and Tim Walz did on Monday.

Trump did nothing. He didn’t hold even one public event and while UPI reported that he was to hold a video call with current and retired members of the United Auto Workers I can find no record of it happening. His only campaign event this whole week isn’t scheduled until Saturday in Wisconsin.

As mentioned, he is doing media but even that is far less energetic that what we’re used to seeing from him. Last night he did an obscure X interview show and seemed desultory and depressed. If it was anyone else I would have thought he’d popped a Xanax before he went on. And the rallies he is doing are boring rehashes of the same old tunes.

One could almost say that Trump is campaigning from his basement. The question is, why? He knows what it takes to campaign for president. It’s been his life’s work for the past decade.

I might guess that he’s still very spooked by the assassination attempt and is resistant to going before the public. I can’t say that I would blame him. It was a very close call and it would freak anyone out. (He would never admit that, of course.) Or maybe it’s just that his heart isn’t really in it now that he thinks the Supreme Court has given him a get-out-of-jail-free card with its immunity ruling.

It’s also possible that his age has caught up with him and he just doesn’t have the “strength and the stamina” to campaign properly anymore. It certainly appeared that way in the interview on X last night and the Moms for Liberty appearance a few days back. He has never looked so frail — and some of the things he is saying are simply delusional. For instance, at the Moms for Liberty gathering he made insane claims that schools are performing transgender surgery on kids:

Before Biden withdrew there was a lot of loose talk coming from the campaign that Democratic states like New Jersey and New Mexico were in play. That was always hype but they were extremely confident that they had the election in the bag. Today, not so much.

The Boston Globe reported that a top volunteer in New Hampshire had informed the staff that the campaign had determined that the state is no longer a battleground state. (That volunteer has been fired.)

And AdImpact, which tracks political advertising released some startling numbers on Monday:

You will notice that the Trump campaign is only competing in Pennsylvania and Georgia. All the other swing states are apparently being left to their own devices. This is surprising to say the least. They do have less money to play with than the Democrats but you’d think they’d at least try to hedge their bets. But the consensus is that they have decided that if they can hold all their 2020 states they will put all their money on picking up those two states which will bring them to exactly 270. If they lose either one (or N. Carolina) that’s the ballgame.

Just as likely they’re really just planning on a post election legal challenge in any or all of those states, claiming that the Democrats stole the election. You can certainly bet they’ll do it in Pennsylvania and Georgia where they are already plotting with local officials. Trump himself has said repeatedly that “our primary focus is not to get out the vote, it is to make sure they don’t cheat.”

If they can find a way to throw the election to the House, as they wanted to do in 2020, they will win and I kind of suspect that Trump would actually prefer to do it that way. It’s the ultimate power play, to make the Democrats lose through a post-election ploy that’s engineered by Trump and his cronies. In his twisted mind, I think that would even validate his Big Lie.

All of this probably explains why Trump isn’t really bothering to campaign much. He’ll spend some time in Pennsylvania and Georgia and make some perfunctory stops in some of the other swing states just to keep it close enough to contest. He’ll keep doing right wing media, the purpose of which is as much to keep his followers charged up about the alleged stealing as anything else. But unless he wins those two big states, which he might, he’s really preparing for the post election Big Lie Part II. He’s old and tired and at this point I think he’d rather whine than win.

Someone needs to tell builder there are 10 million empty homes for the US.

There is a shortage: an artificial one - to keep realestate prices high and rents higher.