Monitoring Biden and other Contemporary Events

Whatever the outcome of the midterms, don’t expect Republicans to return to ‘normal’

In 2010, the then conservative Canadian-American commentator David Frum feared that the conservative Tea Party movement would radicalize the Republican party, which would bring it short-term gain but long-term loss. Two years later, after some unconventional Tea Party candidates had defeated establishment “Republicans in name only” in primaries to then lose in the general elections – like Christine “I’m not a witch” O’Donnell in Delaware or Richard “God intended your rape child” Mourdock in Indiana – the Republican establishment successfully blamed the Tea Party movement for the party’s electoral defeats and regained control, albeit, as it turned out in 2015, for just a few years.

Recently, some commentators have argued that radical outsiders once again endanger Republican success in the midterms. While this might be the case, don’t expect this to seriously change the far-right direction of the party.

Most of the media attention has gone to a group of radical outsiders, endorsed by Trump, who unexpectedly won their primaries but have struggled in the polls for the coming US Senate elections. The most important are former Georgia running back Herschel Walker, whose campaign consists of cosplaying as a law enforcement officer and dodging debates with his opponents; New Jersey resident and quack TV doctor Mehmet Oz, running for a seat in the neighboring state of Pennsylvania, whose social media team seems to hate him so much that his opponent, John Fetterman, simply has to retweet his tweets; and “venture capitalist” JD Vance, in Ohio, whose campaign is as entertaining as the movie based on his autobiography and is barely kept afloat by the largesse of Silicon Valley’s resident Trumpist, Peter Thiel.

To be fair, these three are just the tip of the iceberg. There are several extremists contending for governor races, such as former news anchor Kari Lake, in Arizona, a Sarah Palin 2.0, or Christian nationalist Doug Mastriano, in Pennsylvania, who cosplayed as a Confederate soldier and is surrounded by a team of antisemites and self-proclaimed prophets.

This is to say nothing of the House races, in which a host of candidates are trying to make Marjorie “Jewish space lasers” Taylor Greene look normal. There is a host of conspiracy thinkers running, including a large number of QAnon supporters, such as Sam Peters in Nevada and Ron Watkins in Arizona. And I am not even touching on Republicans running for legislative positions at the state level.

To be clear, it is not even certain that most of these people will actually lose their election. Many are polling close to or even ahead of their actually normal Democratic opponents. But even should they lose – preventing Republican control of the Senate, and losing the party some governorships – there is no indication that this will substantially change the direction of the party.

The architect of the anti-Tea Party counter-coup, Karl Rove, is as irrelevant in today’s Republican party as James Carville is in the current Democratic party. And the main contenders, real or illusionary, to lead a “post-Trump” Republican party are almost as, or even more, Trumpian than the former president.

Most notably, the only Republican to potentially challenge, and even match, Trump’s popularity among the base is the Florida governor, Ron DeSantis. He tries to compensate for his lack of charisma with a relentless string of culture war attacks, which are not just red meat for the Republican base but also create liberal outrage, the lifeblood of the American far right.

Some Republicans hope that the Georgia governor, Brian Kemp, could help the party “shake off” Trump. True, there is bad blood between Trump and Kemp, and the latter handsomely defeated the former’s handpicked opponent, former Georgia senator David Perdue, but the problems between the two are personal rather than ideological. After all, Kemp won the governorship with a Trumpian campaign steeped in vote manipulation and has been as radical as Trump on abortion, guns and immigration. The only thing that sets him apart from Trump, really, is his acceptance of the 2020 election results (in Georgia).

In the same article in which Frum expressed fear that Tea Party radicalization would marginalize the Republican party, more than a decade ago, he also argued that “a party must champion the values of the voters it already has”. He didn’t see what has by now become crystal clear: Trump and his radical outsiders do represent the values of Republican voters. In the end, the Tea Party has won after all.

Disinformation and Social Media correspondent Marianna Spring set up a series of social media accounts to investigate what voters are being recommended online at a turbulent time for US politics. After over two months of running the profiles, this is what she found.

I open up Britney's Instagram and click on an account that's been recommended in her feed. I'm greeted by a meme falsely declaring that President Joe Biden never really won the 2020 election, and several others targeting named female politicians with misogynistic comments and abusive language.

Britney is one of five profiles I've created to track what US voters can be recommended and exposed to online ahead of the midterm elections. While social media sites say they are committed to tackling disinformation and hate on their platforms ahead of the poll, for my undercover voters, misleading and violent posts appear to have only increased in recent weeks.

My five voters were created to represent views from across the US political spectrum, based on data gathered by the Pew Research Centre. I gave each of them a profile on Instagram, Facebook, TikTok, YouTube and Twitter, with names and computer-generated photos.

They are:

Larry, who followed and liked pages that supported the US Second Amendment and liked pages about Republican figures, as well as Fox News
Britney, who followed pages on social media opposing billionaires and abortion, liked lots of content that was very supportive of former President Donald Trump
Gabriela, whose main focus was her local Hispanic community in Miami and the current economic crisis; she has liked lots of groups and pages about saving money on monthly shopping, as well as fashion and music
Michael, who followed a lot of teaching unions and charities, as well as prominent politicians linked to the Democratic party. He followed news outlets like CNN
Emma, who followed a lot of accounts in support of the Black Lives Matter movement and environmental activists, as well as women's marches and LGBTQI rights.
For all of them, I followed additional accounts when they were suggested, as well as keeping up their original interests.

While these profiles can't offer an exhaustive insight into what every US voter could be seeing - and they don't have friends or followers - they do give us a snapshot of what voters across the political spectrum are being exposed to.

The Institute for Strategic Dialogue (ISD), which tracks extremism and disinformation worldwide, says that election conspiracy claims and abusive language aimed at politicians online have intensified in the run-up to the midterms.

As I've checked into each of my undercover voters' accounts over the past two months, it's Britney's that have been most frequently exposed to violent and misleading content.

When setting up her account, I liked pages and accounts that supported Mr Trump, opposed mandatory vaccination and questioned the motives of billionaires. These topics appear to have been a gateway to more extreme content, when compared with the other undercover voters.

Larry was exposed to posts featuring misleading claims about the 2020 election and abusive language directed at politicians, while Emma was also recommended several pages using abusive language aimed at supporters of Donald Trump and Supreme Court Justices, but nothing on the scale of what Britney was recommended.

When I logged onto Instagram in particular, I found she was recommended more and more accounts that made false claims about fraudulent voting and denied that President Biden won the election.

They regularly featured hashtags like #Trumpwon in their profile descriptions and on their posts, and shared memes about the riots on the Capitol claiming that "January 6th wasn't an insurrection".

Britney's profile was also shown TikTok videos from accounts promoting conspiracy theories that the election was rigged, also repeating the phrase "Trump Won".

Last week, Instagram showed her conspiracy theories contradicting the police account of what happened when Paul Pelosi, the husband of US House of Representatives Speaker Nancy Pelosi, was violently attacked in their home. Posts also made light of the violence.

Finally, pages recommended to Britney's Instagram account also featured posts talking about female politicians in abusive and misogynistic terms.

The most frequent targets were Nancy Pelosi, Kamala Harris, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Michelle Obama and Hillary Clinton. There were comments about them performing sex acts, and slurs about their appearances, alongside criticism of their politics. While posts often spoke about Joe Biden and Donald Trump in hateful terms, they were not subject to the same sexualised language.

This language was unique to Britney's accounts. On Facebook, Emma was recommended pages that promoted naming and shaming racists and Trump supporters, but the rhetoric had not escalated in the same way.

Gabriela was increasingly recommended right-leaning content on social media, often about inflation and the cost of living crisis, but it stopped short of the more extreme disinformation and hate that Britney encountered.

Larry and Michael were targeted more frequently by official campaign adverts and content from the political parties themselves, especially on sites like YouTube. For Larry, the messaging was focused on crime, inflation and immigration. For Michael, the adverts and posts talked about abortion, climate change and education.

As well as noting the uptick in hate ahead of the midterms, the Institute for Strategic Dialogue says disinformation online has focused on conspiracies about the Biden administration, as well as the issue of voting in specific US states.

"That, when combined with social media product features and failed policies, is giving permission to more hate and vitriol," said Jiore Craig, the ISD's Head of Elections and Digital Integrity.

In particular, the ISD found election conspiracy theories in short-form video formats across several platforms. Social media companies have "inconsistent and insufficient moderation policies" to deal with this kind of content, its research concludes.

The research also expresses concerns that the major social media companies are not taking election denials seriously, although they have made various commitments to tackling disinformation and hate ahead of the midterms.

In August, Meta - which owns Facebook and Instagram - said it would devote "hundreds of people across more than 40 teams" to ensure the security and safety of the midterms, and apply "learnings" from the past election.

Meta told the BBC that it has robust measures in place to combat misinformation, including partnerships with 10 fact-checking organisations in the US.

It also said it has "clear policies about what is and isn't allowed on our platforms" and "continually reviews content" to see if it violates policies.

TikTok also announced its own "commitment to election integrity" ahead of the vote, saying it had partnered with fact-checking organisations. It told the BBC it took its "responsibility to protect the integrity of our platform and elections with utmost seriousness".

Populist Right Britney, Progressive Left Emma and even Apolitical Gabriela have been recommended increasingly polarised content on Twitter over the past two months, particularly on immigration, crime and climate change.

Britney's account was also shown a conspiracy theory shared by Elon Musk about the attack on Mr Pelosi - Mr Musk later deleted his tweet.

There are concerns that lay-offs and potential changes to moderation policies on Twitter, which Mr Musk now owns, could also lead to an increase in online disinformation just before voters head to the polls.

Several of the Instagram accounts that Britney has been recommended promoting claims that Trump really won the 2020 election have also praised Mr Musk for buying Twitter and referenced their plans to return to the site.

Twitter says that while it has lost employees, their "core moderation capabilities remain in place".

Russian businessman and founder of Wagner group says interfering will continue as midterms loom

The influential Russian businessman Yevgeny Prigozhin, who is linked to President Vladimir Putin and has faced sanctions from Washington and European countries, admitted on Monday to interfering in US elections.

“Gentlemen, we interfered, we are interfering and we will interfere,” Prigozhin, who has been accused of running a “troll factory” to influence the outcome of votes in several western countries, said in a statement quoted by his team.

“Carefully, precisely, surgically and the way we do it, the way we can,” Prigozhin quipped.

Prigozhin, 61, was responding to a request to comment on a Bloomberg report saying Russia was interfering in the US midterm elections.

The announcement was published on the last day of campaigning on the eve of a midterm election that will shape the rest of US president Joe Biden’s term – and could pave the way for a White House comeback by Donald Trump.

In September, Prigozhin confirmed he had founded the Wagner mercenary group, whose members have been at the forefront of Moscow’s offensive in Ukraine.

The high-profile announcement was interpreted by many analysts as evidence Prigozhin was considering a possible political role in Russia.

For years, the Wagner group had been suspected of playing a role in realising Moscow’s overseas ambitions, with the Kremlin denying any links. Its presence has been reported in conflict zones including Syria, Libya, Mali, and Central African Republic, where it has been accused of abuses and capturing state power.

Josh Marshall
@joshtpm
4h
Which is more likely to spontaneously light itself on fire, a Tesla engine or Elon Musk?

You see Rev, all that stuff about Trump collusion with Russia and Russian influence in our elections was a hoax, remember?

Kremlin-connected entrepreneur Yevgeny Prigozhin admitted Monday that he had interfered in U.S. elections and would continue to do so — confirming for the first time the accusations that he has rejected for years.

"Gentlemen, we have interfered, are interfering and will interfere. Carefully, precisely, surgically and in our own way, as we know how to do," Prigozhin boasted in remarks posted on social media.