As I write tonight, the U.N. National Security Council is meeting to discuss Russian president Vladimir Putin’s recognition of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) and the Luhansk People’s Republic (LPR) as independent states within the country of Ukraine. Russian-backed rebels have been fighting the Ukraine government in those regions since 2014, when Russia invaded Ukraine. Today the self-styled leaders of those regions asked Russia for recognition, and Putin granted it.
Upon his recognition of the states, Putin sent a limited number of troops into them, alleging that the invaders were a “peacekeeping” mission to support the Russian separatists, who do not control the regions. Ukraine’s ambassador to the United Nations, Sergiy Kyslytsya, formally requested the U.N. meeting, citing Russia’s “ongoing aggravation of the security situation around Ukraine” and threats to “international peace and security.”
The events of the day began with a dramatic televised meeting of Putin’s security council in the Kremlin, with Putin asking his ministers if they supported recognizing DPR and LPR. While the meeting was presented as a “live” event, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, one of the advisors, was wearing a watch showing that the event was recorded five hours before, thus placing it before the “governments” of the regions asked for recognition.
Then Putin gave a long, aggrieved speech presenting Russia as the victim of the West, which had turned Ukraine into a “puppet regime.” He claimed that Ukraine is not, and should not be, a separate country from Russia. Shortly after current Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky won election in 2019, Russia began to hand out Russian passports to people in the two regions at stake today, strengthening Putin’s argument that the region is actually Russian. And yet, a poll from earlier this month showed that less than 10% of Russians want to invade Ukraine, making it a risky move for Putin.
Putin’s method for control of other countries has been to work for the election of friendly leaders who will permit the expansion of his influence. It is this history that is behind today’s advance on Ukraine.
In 2010, a pro-Russian politician, Viktor Yanukovych, won the Ukraine presidential election with the help of American political consultant Paul Manafort. Pro-democracy protesters forced Yanukovych from his post on February 21 in 2014, a date whose significance Putin’s actions today reinforced. Since then, Ukraine has turned back toward Europe.
Today, Ukraine president Volodymyr Zelensky said, “we will give up nothing to no one” and that the borders of Ukraine “will stay that way, despite any statements or actions taken by the Russian Federation.”
Meanwhile, after the Belarus Defense Ministry said yesterday that Russian troops would stay in the country past yesterday, the originally scheduled date of their departure, it said today that Russian troops might stay in Belarus indefinitely.
It seems worth noting the similarities between the work Manafort did for Yanukovych’s campaign and his work for Donald Trump in 2016, right up to calls to imprison Yanukovych’s pro-NATO main opponent, former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko, who was imprisoned from 2011 until 2014, when she was released following Yanukovych’s ouster from power. And, once in office, Trump did, in fact, let Putin act much as he wished, especially with regard to Ukraine. According to Russia analyst Julia Davis, Russian state television last night said of the former president: “Trump gave us a 4-year reprieve.”
It is not clear if today’s developments are a precursor to a larger invasion, and that smaller incursion was likely an attempt to start a fight among Putin’s opponents over whether it is a big enough invasion to trigger the devastating sanctions the United States and European countries have prepared.
John McLaughlin, former acting director of the Central Intelligence Agency under President George W. Bush and now of the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, tweeted: “Putin has choreographed this with the hope that we and the Europeans will debate whether this is an “invasion” or not. And hoping that throws us enough off balance that he will pay a minimal price for this first slice of salami.”
Russia specialist Tom Nichols saw the same thing, tweeting: “Stop parsing ‘invasion.’ Putin just partitioned Ukraine by edict and is backing it up with force. That alone is reason to impose sanctions. Argue about which sanctions to impose, maybe, and leave some daylight for future moves, but this isn't about ‘is it an invasion.’”
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield answered such concerns: “Tomorrow, the U.S. will impose sanctions on Russia for its violation of international law and Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. We can, will, and must stand united in our calls for Russia to withdraw its forces, return to the diplomatic table & work toward peace.” Tonight, Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba “to reaffirm unwavering U.S. support for Ukraine.”
In response to Putin’s machinations today, the U.S. and U.K. immediately imposed limited sanctions. Biden signed an executive order economically isolating the Donetsk and Luhansk regions of Ukraine, banning all U.S. investment and business there, along with any imports from there, although it makes an exception for humanitarian aid. The executive order also allows the government to sanction individuals participating in the seizure of the region, as well.
In an address tonight, Zelensky told the Ukrainian people: “[Ukraine] is within its internationally recognized borders, and will remain so. Despite any statements and actions of the Russian Federation. We remain calm and confident.”
The price of oil rose more than 3% on the news, and stock markets around the world dropped.
Putin and his fellow oligarchs have amassed power thanks to the financial laxness of western democracies, which their money has helped to destabilize. With Putin’s attack on the international rule of law today, challenging western nations to stop him, Edward Luce of the Financial Times identified the larger picture: “Cannot be stated strongly enough,” he wrote. “If the west—chiefly America, but also Britain—doesn't burn its financial ties to Russia's oligarchy then Putin will prevail. This means taking on Wall Street, the City, law firms[,] realtors, the prep schools and western laundering outfits.”
A week ago the Ukraine president was chiding Biden for over-blowing it. Now that there's been some shelling at the border, he's changing his tune. Go figure.
The European Union agreed on Tuesday to impose a first round of economic sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine crisis, joining the United States and Britain in a coordinated sweep of penalties that included painful limits on banking and the mothballing of an $11 billion Russian-owned gas pipeline.
The sanctions, in response to the Kremlin’s recognition of two separatist enclaves in Ukraine and movement of Russian troops there, signaled Western resolve aimed at convincing President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to abandon any larger military and territorial claims in Ukraine.
It was unclear whether Mr. Putin, who has sought to create fractures in the West’s response to his behavior toward Ukraine, was surprised by any of the penalties. But their timing suggested that the European Union, United States and Britain were acting with a high degree of coordination and unity.
The European Union’s sanctions still fell well short of a potential full package, which the 27-member bloc, Russia’s biggest trading partner, is holding in reserve. But E.U. officials said they were still designed to bite.
We face some dangerous challenges ahead and our government is in decidedly weak hands.
Today Russian president Vladimir Putin said he’s recognizing the full territories claimed by the upstart governments of Ukrainian eastern provinces Luhansk and Donetsk. Josh Kovensky of Talking Points Memo points out that since those governments only control about a third and a half of the territory, respectively, in those provinces, this recognition would mean that Ukraine is occupying land that belongs to those breakaway regions.
Today, the European Union led the way on announcing sanctions against members of Russia’s leadership, reinforcing the idea of international cooperation against Putin. The E.U.’s 27 member states unanimously agreed to freeze the assets and ban the visas of 351 members of the Duma, the Russian government’s lower house of parliament, who backed recognition of the rogue governments within Ukraine.
The U.K. followed suit, sanctioning three "high net worth individuals" in Russia and five major Russian banks.
Germany halted certification of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany, a project worth up to $15 billion to Russia.
In a speech this afternoon, President Joe Biden announced that the U.S. has imposed sanctions on two Russian banks, one of which is associated with the Russian military, and five individuals, including one who is in charge of VK, Russia’s largest social media network, and one that is listed on the London Stock Exchange. It also sanctioned Russia’s debt, cutting off its access to western financing.
The U.S. has gone after Russia’s ability to fund military contracts and raise new money to attack Ukraine. It also is joining with other nations to put the squeeze on what the Treasury Department calls “influential Russians and their family members in Putin’s inner circle believed to be participating in the Russian regime’s kleptocracy.” The goal, according to Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, is to “begin the process of dismantling the Kremlin’s financial network and its ability to fund destabilizing activity in Ukraine and around the world.”
This first group of sanctions seems carefully targeted to hit Putin’s inner circle without sweeping in the Russian people. By applying pressure gradually, it also maintains leverage to try to dissuade Putin from escalating, which would not be the case if the U.S. threw everything at Russia immediately, leaving Putin no reason to change course. And yet, those sanctions remain on the table. Yellen said, “We continue to monitor Russia’s actions and if it further invades Ukraine, the United States will swiftly impose expansive economic sanctions that will have a severe and lasting impact on Russia’s economy.”
As voting rights activist Rachel Vindman put it: “We’re officially in the ‘Finding Out’ phase and all I can say is FINALLY.”
But not all Americans are on board.
Biden’s strong defense of democracy and pulling together of such a strong international coalition has left Republicans unclear about how to respond. In an interview today with right-wing podcaster Buck Sexton, former president Trump expressed admiration for Putin, saying his move to take over parts of Ukraine was “genius.” “Putin declares a big portion of… Ukraine…as independent…. And he’s gonna go in and be a peacekeeper. That’s the strongest peace force I’ve ever seen…. Here’s a guy who’s very savvy.”
Representative Liz Cheney (R-WY) responded: “Former President Trump’s adulation of Putin today—including calling him a ‘genius’—aids our enemies. Trump’s interests don’t seem to align with the interests of the United States.”
Trump is not the only one. There used to be a saying that politics stopped at the water’s edge, meaning that lawmakers presented a unified front to other countries, no matter their partisan differences. So far, Republicans appear to have thrown that idea overboard, trying to use the crisis to attack President Joe Biden, a Democrat. Those Republicans who believe in protecting an international order based on the rule of law are getting around Biden’s reinforcement of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and sanctions by accusing him of being weak on Russia.
The House Republicans somewhat nonsensically tweeted a photograph of the president walking away from the podium after his speech with the caption: “This is what weakness on the world stage looks like” (prompting others to ask if he was supposed to turn cartwheels as he left). House minority leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and the leadership of the House Republicans issued a statement claiming that “Biden consistently chose appeasement and his tough talk on Russia was never followed by strong action.”
Others allied with Trump are supporting Putin by suggesting that the U.S. has no business protecting its ally Ukraine from Russian aggression. This is pushing them into what sure looks like a stand against America.
The press secretary for Florida governor Ron DeSantis, for example, tweeted that “the sad fact is that the USA is in no position to ‘promote democracy’ abroad while our own country is falling apart.” She continued: “I can never trust the federal government in any way.” J.D. Vance, a Republican candidate for the Senate from Ohio, said, “[T]he Russia–Ukraine border dispute has nothing to do with our national security, no American interest is served by our intervention, and that the obsession with Ukraine from our idiot leaders serves no function except to distract us from our actual problems.” Representative Ronny Jackson (R-TX) called for sanctions, not against Russia but against “senior officials in the Canadian government,” apparently because authorities there have arrested members of the truck convoy shutting down border crossings and cities to protest vaccine mandates for truckers.
Some have gone further, either defending Putin or attacking America outright. Candidate for New York Representative to Congress Andrew McCarthy tweeted: “Putin protects the church, tradition, and Russian culture to an extent that globalists cannot accept…. We deal with far worse governments regularly.” Right-wing commentator Candace Owens went further, actually blaming the U.S. for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: “WE are at fault,” she tweeted.
Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has strengthened the international coalition against authoritarianism, but it could enable the Republicans to succeed in undermining Biden at home, replacing him with a pro-Russian leader like Trump in 2024. In that case, Putin’s desperate gambit will have worked, strengthening authoritarians around the world.
Meanwhile, Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny continues to stand for democracy against the authoritarianism that threatens his life. Putin tried to murder Navalny with the nerve agent Novichok and, when that failed, imprisoned him on trumped-up charges for 2.5 years. Now, Navalny is on trial again for fraud and contempt of court; one prosecution witness has refused to testify, saying he was pressured to testify and the charges are “absurd.” If convicted, the 45-year-old Navalny will face another 10 years in prison.
And yet, today Navalny released a 16-tweet thread calling Putin’s security council a bunch of “dotards and thieves” who are trying “to divert the attention of the people of Russia from real problems—the development of the economy, rising prices, reigning lawlessness.” “How long has it been since you last watched the news on federal channels?” he asked. “It's the only thing I watch now, and I can assure you, there is NO news about Russia there AT ALL. Literally. From the first to the last piece, it's Ukraine—USA—Europe.” “We have everything for powerful development in the 21st century, from oil to educated citizens, but we will lose money again and squander the historical chance for a normal rich life for the sake of war, dirt, lies and [corruption]. “The Kremlin is making you poorer,” he wrote, “not Washington.”
Your statements are all couched with "ifs", and assume that, had certain things been done, the situation would be different. Duh...well, of course. But that doesn't mean everything would have then worked out as planned. If you want to play the blame game – and the opposition always does – it's too bad no one listened to George Kennan's advice on NATO expansion in 1997. Then maybe Bush II wouldn't have urged NATO allies to "extend our hands and open our hearts" to former Soviet bloc nations that aspired to join the alliance in 2001.
By Madeleine Albright
strategic situation before him and our country,
