Coronavirus

Straight Answers from Top Epidemiologist Who Predicted the Pandemic

We’ve been told alternatively to not wear masks, to wear masks, to stay home, and to get out and reinvigorate the economy. Hydroxychloroquine and remdesivir both got our hopes up but now have largely fizzled. We’ve heard estimates that as many as two million Americans will die and now, with 100,000 deaths, we’ve heard we’re near the end of the crisis. Is a vaccination forthcoming? How likely we to get the disease? What exactly should we do with our aging parents who are at the most risk?

To get some clear answers, I called Michael Osterholm, PhD, MPH, an internationally known expert in infectious disease epidemiology who has advised both Democratic and Republican Presidents. I know Dr. Osterholm from the University of Minnesota (our academic partner for the first Blue Zones explorations) where he serves as the Director of the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy. He has also served as interim Director of the Centers for Disease Control (CDC).

In short, Dr. Osterholm is arguably one of the most dependable, non-political sources for straight answers on what COVID-19 means to us and our world in the immediate future. In his 2017 book, Deadliest Enemy, he correctly foretells a global pandemic and offers the best strategy for fighting it now and avoiding it in the future.

Here are the highlights of our conversation. But if you really want to understand this disease, read the whole interview. This disease may be the biggest event of our lifetimes.

• 3 months ago, COVID-19 was not even in the top 75 causes of death in this country. Much of the last month, it was the #1 cause of death in this country. This is more remarkable than the 1918 Flu pandemic.

• There is no scientific indication Covid-19 will disappear of its own accord.

• If you’re under age 55, obesity is the #1 risk factor. So, eating the right diet, getting physical activity, and managing stress are some of the most important things you can do to protect yourself from the disease.

• One of the best things we can do for our aging parents is to get them out into the fresh air, while maintaining physical (not social) distancing.

• Wearing a cloth mask does not protect you much if you’re in close contact with someone who is COVID-19 contagious. It may give you 10 minutes, instead of five, to avoid contracting the disease.

• We can expect COVID-19 to infect 60% – 70% of Americans. That’s around 200 million Americans.

• We can expect between 800,000 and 1.6 million Americans to die in the next 18 months if we don’t have a successful vaccine.

• There is no guarantee of an effective vaccination and even if we find one, it may only give short term protection.

• Speeding a vaccination into production carries its own risks.

• The darkest days are still ahead of us. We need moral leadership, the command leadership that doesn’t minimize what’s before us but allows everyone to see that we’re going to get through it.

Six members of President Trump’s campaign tested positive for the coronavirus during a routine screening before a rally in Tulsa, Okla.