Coronavirus

You mean you don't care to discuss this?

You're not here to discuss this?

Walter is one of the best discussionists on this board.

You however don't want to discuss. You want drive the discussion and convert everyone. Your 'cycle' hang up is all you and no context, no explanation .... you know (or maybe you don't): pure misdirection.

Cases Are Rising in Schools. So Why Are Masks Off?

Mayor Eric Adams says he’s following the science in his decision to rescind mask mandates for very young children.

Credit...Andrew Kelly/Reuters
Ginia Bellafante

By Ginia Bellafante

Ginia Bellafante writes the Big City column, a weekly commentary on the politics, culture and life of New York City.
March 25, 2022

On Tuesday night, Mayor Eric Adams went to the Museum of Modern Art to take in the first live Ralph Lauren runway show in more than two years, a collection whose theme — New York in all of its center-of-the-universe glamour — would seem to have been ordered by the mayor himself and produced on demand. In honor of the occasion, Mr. Adams wore an overcoat, half of which was covered in swirls and faces and iconic New York City buildings (and the name Eric Adams), all on a taxicab yellow background, creating another Instagram moment in his campaign to let the world know that New York is happening again and that everyone really needed to get on with it.

“This is the new mayor wardrobe in New York,” he said, in jovial spirit, to reporters at the event. “Our city is back. This is the fashion capital.” Over and over the mayor has instructed New Yorkers to go back to their offices, to return to experiences conducted outside of the house and live it up.

The day after the Ralph Lauren event the mayor followed with the announcement that masks would soon be optional for children in the city’s preschools and day-care centers, though what effect liberating 3-year-olds from their KN95s would have on repopulating offices and resurrecting the economy of Midtown was not self-evident.

City officials have renewed their efforts to vaccinate elementary school students, whose vaccination rates lag far behind those of older children and adults.

The mask mandate for students in kindergarten through 12th grade was lifted on March 7. Acknowledging that the issue was bound to be divisive, the mayor said that he had spoken with many parents who begged him to unmask young children — and also many others who implored him to please keep faces covered. He had followed the “science” and made his decision. It was now time, the mayor said, “to peel back another layer in this entire initiative.”

Although the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had been recommending universal masking for early education programs in the absence of vaccines for young children, it recently, if all too confusingly, revised guidelines to suggest that schools align their policies with wider community norms. The risk of serious illness and hospitalization from Covid in children is extremely low, and yet the costs of unmasking, largely in the name of symbolism, are not entirely fictional.

Over the course of the past two weeks, Covid positivity rates have ticked upward in New York City. But case rates among students have surpassed those in the general population (13.3 per 100,000 versus 9.6 citywide, for a seven-day period ending on March 22), figures the city’s Department of Education did not address when I reached out to ask about them. Some schools have had significant jumps. Hunter elementary school ended the week of March 12 with four cases; the week of March 19, there were 24.
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One complaint advocates of continued masking have had is with the availability of data on Covid cases coming from the city’s education department, which offers a daily tracker some find insufficiently comprehensive. One group, Parents for Responsive Equitable Safe Schools, set out to scrape data regularly and deliver a broad view. What their figures reveal is an increase in the total number of Covid cases in New York City schools this academic year, which jumps from 135,977 cases on March 7 to just under 137,900 cases on March 23, a notable increase over the previous two-week period.

Even if most children have not fallen especially sick since the repeal of masking rules, consequences remain. Given that students need to isolate for five days when they test positive, the rise in cases means that hundreds of children are kept out of school after two years of what are obviously significant academic losses resulting from reduced or nonexistent in-person learning. What they have instead is “asynchronous” learning at home.

Beyond that, vaccination compliance for children eligible for inoculation varies across the city. In East Harlem and parts of the South Bronx, vaccination rates for those between 5 and 17 hover at just under 55 percent; in parts of Central Brooklyn, the figure is closer to 45 percent. And these neighborhoods, of course, are where Covid brought some of its worst devastation.

A few days before the mayor’s announcement about the abandoning of mask rules for young children, Annie Tan, a teacher and activist, posted a picture of herself on Twitter lugging her own air purifier to school in the name of helping her charges remain safe. The next day she brought a second when she discovered that some of her students would be taking standardized tests in windowless classrooms the following week.

Last month, dozens of educators, parents, doctors, political groups and public health officials drafted a letter to the mayor, the governor and others asking for better data from the Department of Education, improved air quality and the continuance of mask wearing. But the forces on the other side of the debate proved more aggressive. Just a few days before the mayor’s most recent announcement, dozens of mostly white parents — some of them at the vanguard of the movement to reopen schools in an earlier phase of the pandemic — gathered at City Hall to demand that the Adams administration “unmask our toddlers.” A similar protest was held a few weeks earlier.

One Manhattan mother, Natalya Murakhver, who has been especially vocal about mask removal, was involved with an action to outfit trucks with billboards in the name of her cause and sent them around the city. One featured a picture of a little blond boy next to a text block that read: “I carry the least risk, but the most burden.” Last year, Ms. Murakhver started a GoFundMe campaign with the intent of hiring a lawyer and suing the city if schools did not return to in-person learning full time.

After the mayor’s announcement this week she took to social media to celebrate the victory but wondered why children would have to wait until April 4 to take their masks off.
Correction: March 25, 2022

An earlier version of this article described imprecisely the C.D.C.’s current guidance on the use of masks for children in day-care and pre-school settings. The center now recommends that those centers and schools align their protocols with those of the broader community and not require masks in all settings.

Ginia Bellafante has served as a reporter, critic and, since 2011, as the Big City columnist. She began her career at The Times as a fashion critic, and has also been a television critic. She previously worked at Time magazine. @GiniaNYT

I mean what I wrote.

But again: you didn't create this thread



If you want to discuss medical issues, especially laboratory medicine, then I would do so at the relevant organisations and not here.

Dude!

Was tony correct when he said that a cycle-threshold of anything over 35 will give meaningless results? Yes, he was.

Did the FDA recommend a cycle-threshold of 40? Yes, they did.

Why did the FDA do that?

Why didn't tony speak up about the inappropriate setting?

The difference between 35 and 40 too hard to wrap your mind around? Gotta have a Ph.D to figure it out?

Don't want to talk about it?

Then DON'T!

But should you ever decide to participate in a meaningful way, could you provide the proper context to the statement below?

________________________________________________________________________________________________________

“…If you get [perform the PCR test at] a cycle threshold of 35 or more…the chances of it being replication-confident [aka accurate] are miniscule…you almost never can culture virus [detect a true positive result] from a 37 threshold cycle…even 36…”
________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Did I?

Again:


Why don't you start a discussion elsewhere on a medical board?
Your (US) medical colleagues would certainly be better people to talk to.

Reducing Covid’s Toll

Many experts expect Covid caseloads to rise soon. Here are four steps to protect people.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/28/briefing/covid-omicron-caseload-antiviral-pills.html

By David Leonhardt
March 28, 2022Updated 2:16 p.m. ET

The BA.2 subvariant — an even more contagious version of Omicron — has already caused Covid-19 cases to rise across much of Europe. In the U.S., caseloads have held steady over the past week, ending two months of sharp declines, and many experts expect increases soon.

Today’s newsletter looks at four promising strategies for minimizing Covid’s toll in the coming months.
1. More boosters

Dr. Aaron Richterman, an infectious-disease specialist in Philadelphia, regularly sees patients who have been vaccinated against Covid but have not received a booster shot. Some are not aware they are eligible for a booster. Others have heard about boosters but are not interested. “I just feel like I don’t need it,” one patient — an older man — recently told Richterman.

That attitude is common. Almost one-quarter of U.S. adults have been vaccinated but have not received a booster shot, according to Kaiser Family Foundation surveys. (Any American who was vaccinated more than five months ago — or two months after a Johnson & Johnson shot — is eligible.)
Image
Credit...Source: Kaiser Family Foundation

These vaccinated-but-unboosted Americans are clearly open to receiving a Covid shot. And many would benefit significantly from getting boosted. Without a booster, immunity tends to wane. With a booster, people are even more protected than they were shortly after receiving a second shot, data shows.

Consider the numbers from California, which publishes detailed data by vaccination status. For every million boosted Californians, fewer than two have been hospitalized with Covid at any given time recently:
Image
Credit...Source: California Department of Public Health

“I remain most worried about lack of booster uptake among the elderly and the immunocompromised,” Jennifer Nuzzo, a Johns Hopkins University epidemiologist, told me.

Many Americans still have not gotten this message, though. What might help? A prominent public-service campaign, focused specifically on booster shots rather than vaccination, could. So could encouragement from politically conservative voices. Fewer than 30 percent of Republican adults have received a booster; many Republicans have not received even a first shot.

“The most powerful weapon we have, by far, is vaccination,” Richterman told me, “and that includes first doses, second doses and third doses.”

What about fourth doses (that is, second booster shots)? The Biden administration will soon begin offering them to anybody 50 or older. The evidence suggests that these shots may offer additional protection but that they are less important than first booster shots, as Katelyn Jetelina, an epidemiologist, has explained in her newsletter.
2. The immunocompromised

For a small percentage of Americans, vaccination is impossible or less effective. This group includes people who are receiving cancer treatments and those who have received certain organ transplants.

Fortunately, a drug now exists that may help many of them. It is an injection called Evusheld, developed by AstraZeneca with help from government funding. It appears to provide months of protection, and the Biden administration has ordered enough doses to treat 850,000 people.

But about 80 percent of the available doses are sitting unused, in warehouses, pharmacies and hospitals, my colleagues Amanda Morris and Sheryl Gay Stolberg have reported. Among the reasons: Many patients are unaware of Evusheld’s existence. Some doctors are uncertain about who qualifies. Some hospitals are refusing to dispense it to eligible patients, saving it for people who they think might benefit more from it.

“The biggest problem is that there is absolutely no guidance or prioritization or any rollout in place at all,” Dr. Dorry Segev of N.Y.U. Langone Health told The Times. “It’s been a mess.”

Biden administration officials have been working with state officials, hospitals, doctors and patient advocates to clear up the uncertainty. They have a long way to go.


A knowledge gap is also hampering the distribution of Paxlovid — a post-infection treatment from Pfizer that seems to sharply reduce the chances a Covid illness will become severe. It is most effective when prescribed shortly after symptoms begin, but many Americans do not know it exists.

The good news is that Paxlovid has become more widely available in recent weeks. If you are in a high-risk group and get infected with Covid, you should immediately talk with a doctor. (Here’s an explainer.)

One thing to keep in mind: The government has so far authorized Paxlovid only for high-risk people, like those 65 and older or those with serious underlying medical conditions. I know that many Americans, especially liberal Democrats, are nervous about their own Covid risk and may be tempted to seek out Paxlovid.

But the risk of developing severe Covid for most people who are boosted remains very low, as the chart above shows. And the current supply of Paxlovid is not large enough to treat anywhere near everybody who gets infected, especially if cases rise. “Our supply is fragile,” Dr. Scott Dryden-Peterson of Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston told Bloomberg News.

If many younger, otherwise healthy people rush to get a Paxlovid prescription, they may effectively be taking doses from vulnerable people.

4. Masks

Broad mask mandates have not done much to prevent Omicron’s spread. Too many people wear low-quality masks or take them off at times, and Omicron is so contagious that it takes advantage of these gaps.

But masks can still help reduce Covid’s spread:

They are especially helpful in hospitals and nursing homes, where high-quality masks can be required and where many people are vulnerable.

Masks also make sense for people who have returned to work or school five to 10 days after a Covid infection, Dr. Shira Doron of Tufts Medical Center says.

Anybody who is personally anxious about Covid, for any reason, can wear a mask, too, Dr. Tom Frieden, a former C.D.C. director, notes. A high-quality mask will protect the wearer even if others nearby are maskless.

The bottom line

All four of these steps have small costs and large benefits.

They avoid contributing to the pandemic’s continuing crisis of isolation and disruption, like closing classrooms and keeping children home from school for weeks on end. And they can save lives. Covid’s official death toll in the U.S. has already exceeded 975,000. But given the availability of vaccine shots and other treatments, the vast majority of deaths are now avoidable.

I was just reading an article and they are starting to give out a fourth booster shot to those 50 and older. When the age is lowered I'll be getting my fourth.

Good for you, JC!

I'm over 50 and I will get it as soon as VA calls me in!

I got the first booster in January. I haven't seen anywhere about when the second booster should be taken. Two months after the first seems a bit quick to me.

I got my booster August last year.

How quickly does the 30% or so who refuse any shots allow the next mutation? Two months just might be pushing it out too long.

My guess is that it will mutate at the same rate as in the "vaccinated" since the "vaccine" doesn't prevent infection or transmission. What is it about the "vaccine" that prevents mutation?

(npr)

A New Wave of Covid-19 Is Coming. Here’s How to Prepare.

Taking these seven steps now can lower your risk and minimize the disruption to your family’s life.

Credit...John Macdougall/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images
Tara Parker-PopeKnvul Sheikh

By Tara Parker-Pope and Knvul Sheikh
Published March 30, 2022Updated March 31, 2022

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/30/well/live/ba2-omicron-covid.html?action=click&algo=bandit-alpha-decay-0.4-time-cutoff-30&alpha=0.03&block=trending_recirc&fellback=false&imp_id=550412526&impression_id=0ea5a132-b1b7-11ec-a0df-195deaa28bae&index=6&pgtype=Article&pool=pool%2F91fcf81c-4fb0-49ff-bd57-a24647c85ea1&region=footer&req_id=893705279&surface=eos-most-popular-story&variant=2_bandit-alpha-decay-0.4-time-cutoff-30

The next wave of Covid-19 is coming, and in some parts of the United States, it’s already here. Are you ready?

The culprit this time is BA.2, a subvariant of the highly infectious Omicron variant. Nobody knows for sure how much havoc it will cause, but BA.2 has already led to a surge of cases in Europe and is now the dominant version of the coronavirus in the United States and around the world.

Researchers are tracking an uptick in cases in the United States, and they’ve detected a rise in the viral particles recovered from nearly 150 wastewater-surveillance sites. Because people can shed the coronavirus even if they never develop symptoms, pieces of the virus collected in wastewater can serve as advance warning several days before official case counts rise, said Bronwyn MacInnis, who directs pathogen genomic surveillance at the Broad Institute in Cambridge, Mass. Over the past two weeks, Dr. MacInnis’s group has seen a rapid increase in levels of the BA.2 subvariant in the Northeast.

“I don’t think we’re looking at a crazy lockdown scenario in this part of the world with BA.2,” Dr. MacInnis said. “But we can’t be sure that we won’t have another curveball from this virus in the future.”

American health officials have said they are hopeful that BA.2 won’t cause another major surge, in part because so many people were infected by the original Omicron wave this winter and most likely have at least some natural or vaccine immunity to protect them against severe illness and hospitalization.

But other variables could turn the BA.2 wave into a more damaging surge. One concern is that less than 70 percent of Americans over 65 have had a first booster shot, leaving a large group vulnerable, said Dr. Eric Topol, a professor of molecular medicine at Scripps Research in La Jolla, Calif. And for many people who got their booster shots in the fall, immune protection may be waning. Unvaccinated people who are counting on natural immunity from a previous infection by a different variant should know that BA.2 can easily sidestep those fading immune defenses.

And then there’s the question of whether pandemic fatigue will prevent some people from taking reasonable precautions, like wearing masks and social distancing, when Covid numbers start to rise in their area.

“We know how to manage it,” said Dr. Robert Wachter, a professor and the chair of the medicine department at the University of California, San Francisco. “But the big caveat will be that there are lots of parts of the country that will not go back into careful mode. It’s wishful thinking to believe we’re going to stay in a situation as good as we are in now.”

While the virus is unpredictable, there are clear ways to protect yourself. The plans you make now can lower your risk of exposure, minimize the disruption to the lives of your family and friends and help to assure you have access to treatments if you or someone you know becomes seriously ill.


Here’s what you can do to prepare.
Pay attention to Covid indicators in your community

Don’t wait for public health officials to issue warnings. Keep an eye on Covid-19 statistics for your county or region. An easy way to do this is to check the color-coded map from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that shows community levels of Covid-19 around the country. The map is mostly a welcoming green right now, which means there are relatively low rates of new cases and hospital admissions. But there is a growing number of yellow spots, showing medium risk, in Texas, the Northeast and other areas, and orange-colored hot spots are cropping up in Montana, the Dakotas and other states, indicating high rates of community spread.

As the map shifts to yellow and eventually orange in your area, it’s time to take extra precautions, including donning masks in public spaces and rethinking large indoor gatherings where you don’t know the vaccination status of others.


If you want even earlier warning of Covid trends, you can bookmark the C.D.C.’s wastewater data tracker map.

Another useful indicator is your community’s positive test rate. Experts advise taking more precautions as you see positive test rates start to rise above 5 percent. The Johns Hopkins coronavirus resource center shows daily U.S. and state-by-state testing trends.
Have high-quality masks on hand

Even if you’re not wearing a mask now, check your mask supply and make sure you have plenty of high-quality medical-style masks on hand. A limited number of free N95 respirator masks are available at pharmacies and community centers. Enter your ZIP code on the C.D.C.’s mask locator to find a participating distributor near you. If you want to buy additional masks, use our guide to find a reliable supply of N95, KN95 or KF94 masks and avoid counterfeits.

Since many communities have lifted mask mandates, when and how often you use a mask is probably going to be up to you.

“The mask needs to go on when you start seeing case numbers going back up,” said Linsey Marr, professor of civil and environmental engineering at Virginia Tech and one of the world’s leading experts on viral transmission.
The Coronavirus Pandemic: Latest Updates

Dr. Marr said she knows people are tired of masks, but wearing one is only a minor inconvenience and is a proven way to lower your risk. “I’m not into fear mongering, but there’s still so much we don’t know about long Covid that I don’t want to get Covid, and I don’t want anyone else to, either,” she said.

And the more people who wear masks as cases start to rise, the sooner the next wave will be over.


Order home Covid tests sooner rather than later

Each U.S. household is eligible for two sets of four home Covid tests free from the government; if you haven’t ordered them yet, get them now before the weather turns warm. The tests can be damaged by heat, and you don’t want yours sitting for hours in a mail truck on a hot day.

“Now is better than a month from now, especially for people in hot locations,” said Dr. Michael Mina, chief science officer for eMed, a company that verifies at-home test results. “Just take advantage of the program, get them and put them in your cupboard for when you need them.”

People with insurance can also be reimbursed for eight free tests a month. If you develop respiratory symptoms, have a fever or just feel unusually fatigued, use a test on the first day of symptoms. If symptoms persist and you still test negative at home a few days later, you may want to get a lab-based PCR test to be sure.

“If you can afford it, test when you think you have allergies, test when you think you have a cold,” said Kelly Hills, a bioethicist and risk expert and co-founder of the consulting firm Rogue Bioethics. “This is one of those things I think people need to get in the habit of setting aside money for because tests provide important data for making decisions.”



Get a booster (when you’re eligible)

Federal regulators have authorized a second booster shot for everyone 50 and older. The agency also authorized a second booster for people 12 and older with certain immune deficiencies.

While scientists are still debating the value of another booster, most say that people 65 and older and the immune compromised are likely to benefit. If you haven’t gotten your first booster shot, experts agree you should get one now. If you’ve recently had Covid, you most likely have as much natural protection as you’d get from a booster shot — at least for a while.

The protective antibodies from a vaccine or an infection tend to wane in four or five months. A well-timed booster shot tells the body to bump up its antibody defenses and helps other parts of the immune system — like B cells and T cells — become better at remembering how to fight the virus, said Theodora Hatziioannou, a virologist at Rockefeller University in New York City.


Get a pulse oximeter

A pulse oximeter is a small device that clips on your finger and measures your blood oxygen levels. When levels drop to 92 or lower, patients should see a doctor. Low oxygen can be a sign of Covid pneumonia and may raise your risk for serious complications from Covid-19. The devices can be less reliable for people with darker skin, so pay attention to downward trends as well as the number.

A study from South Africa found that the risk of dying from Covid-19 was about 50 percent lower among patients who had been instructed to monitor their oxygen saturation at home. You can find the devices for about $30 in pharmacies and online. (Researchers say the pulse oximetry reading on your Apple watch probably is less reliable than the fingertip device.)
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Make a plan for antiviral drug treatment

Two oral antiviral therapies are available to treat Covid-19 in the United States, though they require a doctor’s prescription and are authorized only for people who may be at high risk of severe disease. One, called Paxlovid, developed by Pfizer, is taken as three pills twice a day for five days. It is available for high-risk patients 12 and older.

The second drug, called molnupiravir, was developed by Merck in partnership with Ridgeback Biotherapeutics. It is taken as four pills twice a day for five days, and is available for high-risk adults 18 and older.

For the pills to be most effective, you need to start taking them within five days of the start of your symptoms, so it’s important to have a plan for getting a prescription and knowing which pharmacy can fill it, said Kuldip Patel, the senior associate chief pharmacy officer at Duke University Hospital in North Carolina.

You can use the Covid-19 therapeutics locator to track local supply of the drugs and check with your doctor to make sure you can receive the medication should you fall ill. (Some doctors are still declining to prescribe the drugs.) You can also look up qualified pharmacy-based clinics near you, as well as community health centers and long-term care facilities that have an authorized medical provider so you can get tested and, if positive, receive antiviral medication on the spot.

People who are immune compromised should also talk to their doctor about Evusheld, an antiviral drug from AstraZeneca that can be given by injection to provide an additional layer of protection on top of vaccines.
Have backup plans for social events and travel

If you have plans for a graduation party, wedding or other large event, it’s a good idea to have an outdoor backup plan if your community’s case numbers spike. If you’re planning to travel, do a little advance research into clinics and pharmacies at your destination so you know whether you can get antiviral drugs if you catch Covid-19 on your trip. Make sure you have extra funds or plenty of room on your credit card in case you need to extend your trip to recover from Covid. (You still need proof of a negative Covid test for international travel.)

Health experts said planning for the next wave of Covid shouldn’t disrupt your life or prompt you to cancel travel plans or time with friends and family. In fact, being prepared for the unexpected will allow you to keep living your life as normally as possible.

“A lot of people feel it’s a terrible inconvenience and they are sick of it, and I understand that,” said Dr. Topol, of Scripps Research. “We’ve had a time out, and it’s been good. But people should be ready to gear up if need be.”

Record-breaking 4.9m people in UK sick with Covid - up 600,000 cases in a week
Source: Mirror

A record 4.9 million people in the UK are estimated to have had Covid-19 in the week ending March 26, up from 4.3 million in the previous week, the Office for National Statistics said.

Only a month after Covid restrictions ended in the UK, the number of Covid cases has soared, rising by around 600,000 cases in a week.

The ONS released the figures for the end of March showing that the virus infection rates had reached an all time high.

*snip*

The government has come under fire in recent weeks for scrapping universal free testing of Covid-19.


Read more: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/breaking-record-breaking-49m-people-26611055

I think we're going to have to live with this. Most people I know have gotten Covid, some more than once. If you're fairly healthy, you should be okay. It's not news in my city any longer, and medical procedures are being carried out with greater regularity for the first time since 2020.

Have you read about the damage covid does to the brain, even in mild cases? I think, yes , we probably will have to live with this. And it will negatively affect the health of a significant number of people.

You "should" be okay. I know a couple of young (and younger) persons, who suffer from long-covid. The 9-year-old son of an acquaintance is the worst example.

What makes me wonder is: months ago, everyone cared about the older population. Now, this group seems to be neglectable.

I didn't say there weren't possible complications, but if you're immuno- compromised, it's potentially worse. Those who I know who got it are operating per usual.