JustWonders wrote:blatham - I'm curious to know if you realize that the poll numbers for the Democrat congressional leadership is an embarrassing 32% approval rating (29% approval for Congress as a whole).
This begs the question - do you think that the negative press will result in a mass exodus to the Democrats? Have the Democrats provided viable alternatives on the key issues of the economy, high energy prices or Iraq? (Note I said viable).
Intuition tells me otherwise, but perhaps you will let us in on your predictions. If the elections were next month, I'd say we might have a bit to worry about. It's not. We have another year and things aren't as bleak as they seem.
62% think Miers should (and will) be confirmed, gas prices will probably go lower, and if Dubya takes a strong stance on immigration his numbers will rise.
I ask in the nicest possible way ... are you sure all this negativity from the press will boost the Dems into power?
Your mannerly question deserves a thoughtful and honest answer.
I'm not sure, frankly, that you'll perceive any Dem platform as viable whether or not it is (electorally or practically) so that presents a problem right off. But if we are speaking electorally, it probably doesn't matter what the out party might say or plan if the in party is perceived to be floundering or incompetent or corrupt (or some multiple of those options). David Gergen was on one show last night. Now he's a Republican (moderate, surely) who I deeply respect and listen to for his take on things. He used the phrase, to describe what is happening to this white house, as "the wheels have come off". That's pretty much the picture everyone has, even guys like Kristol.
This is a volatile time. If indictments come down on Rove and/or Libby and perhaps others, it's hard to imagine how this administration will recover. Reagan managed it, but this president is (you get honesty here) a serious incompetent not comparable to Reagan in intelligence or skills. He'll have effective people around, but many of them are now deeply colored towards the negative too. What Bush will have to do is clean house very thoroughly and I don't think he is up to that task.
On the other hand, if no indictments come down (because this story has gained such an acute importance), then at least for some time, the left will be deeply depressed and ineffective. Hard to know how that will play out given the other negatives Bush has in front of him.
But in any scenario that doesn't include another terrorist attack, or a big dive in the economy, or Bush getting seen drunk, or Miers folding and some person clearly radical appointed with the nuke option then engaged with unknown consequences, etc...then there won't be any massive shift of voters. But a massive shift isn't needed for Republicans to lose power in either house or the Presidency.
The shift in media tone, from subservient and fearful, to something more challenging and aggressive is now, I think for sure, here to stay. That's a very good thing regardless of which party is in power. Journalists have to be careful to be honest and thorough and as free of bias as their job description and traditions insist, but they cannot function as a mouthpiece for the powerful (regardless of who) for the US to retain a real democracy. How much this shift in tone will change the electorate's mind is uncertain, because of everything else that is up in the air.
