McGentrix wrote:5 years ago, there was a well defined list of people and places that supported/sponsored terrorists and terrorist organizations.
Osama Bin-Laden -On the run, hasn't had any impact since 9-11.
Yasir Arafat -Dead. Too bad we can't take responsibility for that.
Muammar Qaddafi -Neutered voluntarily. Hard to say what impact the events following 9-11 had, but they had some impact.
Saddam Hussein -In prison.
Abu Musab al-Zarqawi -Hiding in Iraq prior to the invasion and now recognized as the leader of the insurgency in Iraq. Soon, he will be dead or captured.
Lebanon -Syrian government retreating and perhaps a democratic government will spring up following the lead of Iraq, Afghanistan.
Syrai -Taking a hard look at it's role in the future of the ME.
Iran -Who knows what the future will bring, but I think and hope a peaceful outcome will result from the wise people whi inhabit Iran. It's a great country with the potential to also develop a democratic government.
Things, they are a changin' in the Middle East. History will show this time period to have been a catalyst to a better tomorrow.
Interesting analysis.
Re: Osama bin Laden & Zarqawi as neutered terrorists. I think it is somewhat disingenuous to say that we haven't caught OBL yet. It is ridiculous to think that we can immediately or even quickly capture a man with serious capital, the willingness to kill, maim and torture opponents or suspected middle-goers, in an area where he is widely regarded as one of the greatest heroes of Islam. On the other hand, I think it is somewhat disingenuous to say that he hasn't had any impact since 9/11. Zurqawi, who you mention, has been in contact with OBL since 9/11 and has been responsible for many American deaths. Evidently there has been some collaboration though analysts think now that al Qaeda is more a loose confederation of independent actors than a top-down hierarchy. He also seems to have galvanized a great number of people to act against the US. Osama is apparently now by far the most popular name for baby boys in the Muslim world. Even when we catch him, if we kill him, then he will likely become a martyr. There's not much either the Dems or Rubs can do about that. Time will tell. Zarqawi's been neutralized? That's news to me. I thought I heard a couple hundred got blown up just the other day.
Re: Saddam Hussein as neutered terrorist sponsor. The primary group that Hussein worked with was the Mujahadeen-e-Kalq, an anti-Iranian terrorist organization on the US State Department's list of terrorist organizations. Other major sponsors include Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS), who thinks their information on the goings on in Iran is quite good, especially with respect to their nuclear program. None other than the arch neoconservative Daniel Pipes spoke at a rally they threw in Washington DC (!) last year. They operate quite freely in the United States. A large number of them are currently being held in Iraq, evidently as the Administration decides whether or not to turn them over to the Iranians (where they would certainly face torture and most likely summary execution) in return for certain members of al-Qaeda being held (and most likely tortured given that al-Qaeda as a radical Sunni group is quite anti-Shia Iran) by Tehran.
Re: Muammar Qadaffi as neutered sponsor of terrorism. Well, he just got caught last year having put together the plan and operations for the assassination of the crown prince--I think it was--of Saudi Arabia. He also appears to be meddling in Sudan with respect to Darfur. It is not clear what Qadaffi, a notoriously mercurial "leader", will do once he is awash in the cash coming in now that the sanctions are being lifted. With respect to the nuclear program, it appears that the invasion of Iraq was not the major motivator. Cf. the op-ed piece by Flynt Leverett, former Director of Middle East Affairs for the National Security Council, in the
New York Times last year --
here's a link to the text. On the other hand, I think that the invasion of Iraq probably did not tip the scales against coming to a detente with the West ... it must of been a consideration in Qadaffi's thinking. (His long-term relationship with Nelson Mandela--South Africa gave up the bomb voluntarily--is likely another important consideration.) Still, time will tell as to Qadaffi's future role in international affairs. Neutered sponsor of terrorism? Not yet.
Re: Lebanon & Syria as neutered sponsors of terrorism. An interesting take, but I think it is a bit premature to say that the terrorist organizations native to Lebanon will cease to be so should Democracy take hold. The Syrian withdrawal is interesting on a number of levels -- the reason they were there in the first place was to counter Israel and to put an end to the anarchy of the 20 odd year long Civil War that was causing them cross-border problems. A primary cause of that war was the Israel-Palestine conflict, where a great number of Palestinians elected to move their struggle to Lebanon. (If I remember correctly, it was the headquarters of the PLO for some time.) Of course, the Syrians leaving does not mean that the Lebanese will all of a sudden work out all their problems and begin to make civil compromises which is so necessary to the establishment of Republican institutions. In fact, the Syrians may well be counting on the re-erruption of conflict which we ourselves paid dearly to try and arrest under Reagan on the theory that either the US or our proxy, Israel, will be forced to expend force in order to attempt to re-establish order which means that we will have that much less forces at our disposal to utilize against Syria (jokes about flying a nuclear-armed F15 over Damascus aside.) On the other hand, the Cold War is over and with it several ideological viewpoints have been delegitimized and the Lebanese well remember the consequences of the Civil War and their subsequent occupation. Perhaps they will choose to settle their differences peacefully and democratically. I certainly hope so. But that does not mean that the causes that they hold so dear will all-of-a-sudden disappear and a pro-Israel stance is not an electible one in Syria as far as I know. Syria itself will not likely end support for Hamas and other terrorist organizations due to this withdrawal -- of course Hamas has as a policy
not to target the US (which is in part due to, ironically, the Iranians.) Syria, I suspect, will not radically change their understanding of their national interests due to our muscular policy in Iraq ... their interests remain basically the same under most conditions.
Re: Iran as potentially neutered sponsor of terrorism. Well, since Iran has had a policy of not targetting the US since the Khobar Towers bombing in 1996, this is pretty moot. Indeed, Iran has been cooperating with American efforts against al Qaeda, though very quiety, since al Qaeda is a great enemy of Iran. (I understand there are pictures of Iranian special forces fighting alongside US special forces in Afghanistan that are quite astonishing.) Last year Agence France Press -- I think it was -- reported that the Iranians gave the US the intelligence that caught Saddam Hussein. (No one on either side will confirm -- it's pretty much politically a minus to do so -- but given that the Iranians probably hate Saddam Hussein more than any other man on earth, seeing as he was responsible for a million war dead in the Iraq-Iran War, I wouldn't be surprised if it were true.) No less than Rafsanjani himself last year gave a speech where he said it was the duty of all pious Muslims to give the Americans advice on how to arrange the situation in Iraq safely so that we might quickly get out! In any case, Iran is not likely to drop their support for the Palestinians given the political popularity of their cause.
As to a people power type revolution in Iran, I think it unlikely any time soon given that the Revolutionary Guards have such a huge stake in the current system. That said, Bush is probably the most popular man in Iran, on both the conservatives and reformers' sides of the aisle given that he has made their strategic position in their near afar the best it has been in millenia by a) getting rid of a hostile government in Afghanistan (a millenial concern), b) getting rid of a hostile government in Iraq (from which the original Arabic Islamicizers came under the Kaliphate in the 9th century AD, I believe), and c) shoring up the buffer Newly Independent States of the former Soviet Union (Russia being a centuries long concern.) Certainly some in Iran hope that Bush will invade and kick out the mullacracy, but when you speak of democracy in the Middle East, it must be said that Iran is the most democratic state in the Middle East, unless you regard the denial of suffrage to the Palestinians of Israel as democracy. It is a fair example of why some urges in a democratic Middle East might just not be to our liking, though it is certainly nice to hope that democracy will bring with it a US-friendly and normal relationship to the West politics.
Tangent -- the irony of the success of the elections in Iraq. For some reason the pundits seem to have forgotten that the reason the elections were held so soon was because the Administration was basically forced to by Grand Ayatolla al Sistani. It was at his insistence that a speedy timetable was arrived at and that international observers were brought in. The Administration resisted mightily at first, saying that it was impossible and refusing to set a solid date. Prior to the setting of the date the Dems were criticizing the Administration for having Machiavellian motives for the invasion, the moment the date was set, those dumb bunnies, they began to say that the Administration was not being Machiavellian enough!
By the way, al-Sistani's list was by far the most successful at the ballots and though he is not officially against a theocracy a la Iran -- Najaf is the traditional place for Iranian dissenters to preach, Khomeini being one of the more prominent predecessors -- he is for a Sharia basis to the law. Sistani is fairly vehemently anti-Israel and I would expect a democratically elected government in Iraq to be politically against them. Will they be pro-US? Time will tell.
I noticed two very prominent places that you did not include in your list.
1. Afghanistan -- a success. Of course, it wasn't really the Rubs' proposal to go after Afghanistan was it? There wasn't any real Dem opposition to the idea, was there? ... it was
America's policy to take down those sumabitches. Indeed, it was pretty much the world's policy. Certainly the elections there are encouraging and I don't think it is reasonable to expect us to get rid of the warlordism of several millennia over night. On the other hand, it is not clear to me why Iraq was so pressing -- minus WMD -- that we couldn't afford to have more people on the ground there making sure things work out. But that's a quibble.
2. North Korea -- a total unmitigated friggin disaster. Right after 9/11 North Korea dropped out of our monitoring program for their nuclear reactor. Did we have the political will of the world following 9/11 to deal with a state building nuclear bombs whose only export is weapons and who has a missile that can reach Seattle? (though they probably can't fit one on one yet.) Did we squander it on a country which we likely could have spent 10 years getting the world to agree if we had to? Well, I think so anyways. The party of national defense, eh? In the meantime I have to listen to Rumsfeld, that hawk, tell us that the reason we didn't have enough troops in Iraq at the start was because of Turkish obstructionism. Yeah, blame it on our longest standing Muslim ally.