As you all know on 11/6/2018 we all go and vote again (in the US) for our elected officials.
I thought it'd make sense to have an official prediction thread and on 11/7 we can declare a winner and award all the braging rights that entails.
I'll be keeping a spreadsheet with the date and predictions for the House of Representatives and Senate (and maybe other predictions; we'll see how the discussion goes).
Some general details to help with the prediction:
The House of Representatives
- 435 seats being voted on
- Currently there are 236 Republicans, 193 Democrats, 6 vacant
- 37 Republicans are not running for their current positions
- 2 Republicans lost their primaries to challengers
- 18 Democrats are not running for their current positions
- 3 Democrats lost their primaries to challengers
- Incumbents have at least an 80% chance of retaining their positions
- General consensus is that Republicans have an advantage in the house due to redistricting in many states (may be up for debate).
- 33 seats being voted on
- Currently there are 51 Republicans, 47 Democrats, 2 Independents (caucusing with Democrats)
- 8 Republicans are running for seats
- 6 of those Republicans are incumbents
- 23 Democrats are running for seats
- 23 of those Democrats are incumbants
- 2 Independents are running for seats
- 2 of these Independents are incumbants
- The generic ballot has Democrats in the lead by +8.3%
- FiveThirtyEight has a 5 in 6 chance that Democrats take control of the House and a 1 in 6 chance the Republicans keep control
- FiveThirtyEight has a 1 in 3 chance that Democrats take control of the Senate and a 2 in 3 chance the Republicans keep control
Please post your predictions in some easy to read format such as:
Senate - D = 48 seats, R = 50, I = 2 seats
House - D = 200 seats, R = 235 seats