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Official A2K 2018 Congress Prediction Thread

 
 
Reply Mon 17 Sep, 2018 11:39 am
As you all know on 11/6/2018 we all go and vote again (in the US) for our elected officials.

I thought it'd make sense to have an official prediction thread and on 11/7 we can declare a winner and award all the braging rights that entails.

I'll be keeping a spreadsheet with the date and predictions for the House of Representatives and Senate (and maybe other predictions; we'll see how the discussion goes).


Some general details to help with the prediction:

The House of Representatives
- 435 seats being voted on
- Currently there are 236 Republicans, 193 Democrats, 6 vacant
- 37 Republicans are not running for their current positions
- 2 Republicans lost their primaries to challengers
- 18 Democrats are not running for their current positions
- 3 Democrats lost their primaries to challengers
- Incumbents have at least an 80% chance of retaining their positions
- General consensus is that Republicans have an advantage in the house due to redistricting in many states (may be up for debate).

The Senate
- 33 seats being voted on
- Currently there are 51 Republicans, 47 Democrats, 2 Independents (caucusing with Democrats)
- 8 Republicans are running for seats
- 6 of those Republicans are incumbents
- 23 Democrats are running for seats
- 23 of those Democrats are incumbants
- 2 Independents are running for seats
- 2 of these Independents are incumbants


Nationwide Themes
- The generic ballot has Democrats in the lead by +8.3%
- FiveThirtyEight has a 5 in 6 chance that Democrats take control of the House and a 1 in 6 chance the Republicans keep control
- FiveThirtyEight has a 1 in 3 chance that Democrats take control of the Senate and a 2 in 3 chance the Republicans keep control



Sources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2018
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/house/?ex_cid=rrpromo
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/?ex_cid=midterms-header






Please post your predictions in some easy to read format such as:

Senate - D = 48 seats, R = 50, I = 2 seats
House - D = 200 seats, R = 235 seats
 
maporsche
 
  1  
Reply Mon 17 Sep, 2018 11:42 am
My non-scientific prediction:

Senate - R = 50, D = 48, I = 2 (Republicans keep control with Pence being tie-breaker)
House - D = 245, R = 190 (Democrats take control)

I'll add that I also believe that the Democrats will win the combined popular vote in the house by 9.3%
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  1  
Reply Mon 17 Sep, 2018 12:05 pm
<following>
0 Replies
 
Real Music
 
  1  
Reply Mon 17 Sep, 2018 12:14 pm
@maporsche,
This is interesting.
I am also interested in the 2018 governor races across the country.
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 17 Sep, 2018 06:16 pm
GOP retains control of both houses.
maporsche
 
  3  
Reply Mon 17 Sep, 2018 06:24 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
If my math is right, there is a 1 in 9 chance of that happening (according to FiveThirtyEight).

I’ve got your prediction logged
maporsche
 
  2  
Reply Tue 18 Sep, 2018 06:09 am
@maporsche,
FiveThirtyEight addressed your prediction on their podcast today and they mentioned that the chances of both happening is more like 1 in 5.
0 Replies
 
jespah
 
  2  
Reply Tue 18 Sep, 2018 07:04 am
Senate - D = 49 seats, R = 49, I = 2 seats
House - D = 209 seats, R = 226 seats

Just for laughs, governors - there are 36 up (plus 3 territories): 26 R (some are retiring), 9 D, 1 I.
I predict: 18 R, 17 D, 1 I.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_gubernatorial_elections,_2018
0 Replies
 
tsarstepan
 
  2  
Reply Tue 18 Sep, 2018 07:20 am
@maporsche,
Wildcard prediction:
Half unicorns/walrus will ride asteroids into our atmosphere and utterly obliterate the west coast of the US. The election will be postponed for a year until all the glitter fallout is cleaned up from the Midwestern states (hint glitter will be found in the cracks and crevices of the entire North American continent for the next two centuries).
0 Replies
 
Finn dAbuzz
 
  -1  
Reply Tue 18 Sep, 2018 11:33 am
@maporsche,
Good for you.

What were the odds of Trump being elected?
maporsche
 
  2  
Reply Tue 18 Sep, 2018 11:54 am
@Finn dAbuzz,
I think 1 in 4 if I remember correctly


You sound salty; you may not be, but you sound that way.
Finn dAbuzz
 
  -1  
Reply Wed 19 Sep, 2018 11:30 am
@maporsche,
If by salty you mean tough and aggressive, guilty as charged.
maporsche
 
  2  
Reply Wed 19 Sep, 2018 11:46 am
@Finn dAbuzz,
http://discovermagazine.com/~/media/Images/Issues/2013/June/self-deceit.jpg
Finn dAbuzz
 
  -2  
Reply Wed 19 Sep, 2018 11:53 am
@maporsche,
Is the guy on the left how you look? It's certainly not how I look.
maporsche
 
  2  
Reply Wed 19 Sep, 2018 01:58 pm
@Finn dAbuzz,
That guy (on the left), like you, sees themselves much differently than they really are (based on your posts on this board).
Finn dAbuzz
 
  0  
Reply Thu 20 Sep, 2018 12:49 pm
@maporsche,
Well, then that must be the case. You certainly have no ax to grind. Very Happy
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  4  
Reply Thu 20 Sep, 2018 01:48 pm
@maporsche,
https://www.bustle.com/articles/99658-what-does-salty-mean-in-slang-plus-4-times-youve-probably-been-salty-because-theres-more

I'd rather have a salty dog than be salty

http://www.mattesonart.com/history-of-salty-dog-blues.aspx

Finn dAbuzz
 
  0  
Reply Thu 20 Sep, 2018 06:06 pm
@ehBeth,
Well get yourself a salty dog and you can have both.
0 Replies
 
ehBeth
 
  2  
Reply Sat 22 Sep, 2018 11:45 am
https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/house-race-ratings

https://www.cookpolitical.com/ratings/senate-race-ratings

https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis

____


https://www.cookpolitical.com/analysis/national/national-politics/winning-women-enough-democrats-win-house

Quote:
It’s been beyond obvious for a while now that Republicans have a problem with female voters. Poll after poll have shown that white college-educated women, once a persuadable pool of voters, have abandoned the GOP. The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal survey found that these women support a Democrat for Congress by 22 points — 58 percent to 36 percent. In 2014, they preferred a Democratic Congress by just 2 points (46-44 percent). Republican strategists on the ground are seeing and feeling the same thing. A GOP strategist involved in a number of midwestern races emailed the other day saying, “we are losing independent women at a rapid rate.” Another GOP consultant involved in swing state races told me that these women voters’ are singularly focused on their dislike and disgust of the president, making it difficult, if not impossible, for Republican candidates to get a fair hearing from them.

The defection of these women voters are the reason why traditionally GOP, upscale, overwhelmingly white districts in suburban Chicago (IL-06), Kansas City (KS-03), Dallas (TX-32), Houston (TX-07), New Jersey (NJ-07) and Minneapolis (MN-03), are in serious peril.

But, what is worrying many Democrats is that the enthusiasm they are seeing among women isn’t being replicated among another group of voters that theoretically should be as motivated — or more — to vote for Democrats: Latino voters.

This isn’t a new concern. Democratic strategists, as well as political analysts like Ron Brownstein and Josh Krashaaur, have been sending up warning flares for a while now. Latino voter drop-off in midterm elections is nothing new, but the thinking was that President Trump's rhetoric and policies around immigration, especially the issue of separating children from their parents at the border, would be a catalyst for higher Latino engagement in 2018. At this point, however, recent polling by New York Times Upshot/Siena College and Monmouth University, suggests that's not the case.


<snip to a lot of nerd words/charts and links>

Quote:
Bottom line: Democrats are doing very well in the upscale, suburban districts where we’ve seen unprecedented engagement by women voters. But, in the diverse districts where Clinton ran up her biggest margins in 2016, Democratic candidates for Congress may not fare as well. Can Democrats win the House without winning those districts? Yes.

But, if Democrats are going to prove they have a broad base message and appeal, they need to do more than just run up the score in white, suburban America. They also need to make up ground rural/exurban America and prove that they can energize and turn-out Latino voters.
oralloy
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 15 Oct, 2018 02:06 pm
I have no prediction at this time, but the way I see it, North Dakota, Missouri, and Nevada will be the Senate races to watch on election night.

If the Democrats retain North Dakota, they are also likely to take Nevada (they are likely to take Arizona regardless). So a Democratic victory in North Dakota will be a sure sign that the Democrats will take control over the Senate.

If the Republicans take North Dakota, they will retain control over the Senate even if the Democrats pick up Nevada and Arizona.

North Dakota is in both Central and Mountain time zones. Local districts can set the time that their polls close between 7pm and 9pm. Thus some polls in North Dakota will close at 7pm Central (8pm Eastern). Most polls in North Dakota will be closed by 9pm Central (10pm Eastern). A few polls could be open as late as 9pm Mountain (11pm Eastern).


If the Republicans take Missouri, they are very likely to also pick up North Dakota. Plus, a Missouri victory alone will be enough to keep the Republicans in control of the Senate even if the Democrats take Arizona and Nevada. So a Republican victory in Missouri will be a sure sign that the Republicans will retain control over the Senate and maybe even gain a seat.

Missouri polls close at 7pm Central (8pm Eastern).


The Democrats will need to take Nevada if they want to take the Senate. So if the Democrats hold Missouri, and if North Dakota results are taking a very long time to come in, if the Republicans hold Nevada that will be a sure sign that the Republicans will retain control over the Senate.

Nevada polls close at 7pm Pacific (10pm Eastern).


If the Democrats hold Missouri and take Nevada, and if North Dakota takes a long time for results to come in, we'll just have to wait for the North Dakota results to come in before we know which party will control the Senate.
0 Replies
 
 

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