Official A2K 2018 Congress Prediction Thread

Democrats remain clear favorites for the House majority, but a modest increase in GOP intent to vote may curtail how deep they can push the battlefield into red districts where Trump won by larger margins. Our outlook remains a Democratic gain of between 25 and 40 seats, but if the election were held this week the result might be on the lower end of that range.

Back in 2016, lots of people, myself included, thought that Trump’s "all-base-all-the-time" strategy was ill-conceived. Sure, it would motivate his supporters, but it would also juice up turnout by Democrats and turn off critical swing/independent voters.

In the end, however, Trump’s one-sided intensity focus worked because there was not an equal amount of energy and enthusiasm on the Democratic side for Hillary Clinton. And, instead of turning off voters who weren’t as identified with a partisan tribe, Trump ultimately carried (narrowly) independent voters.

This year, however, is different. While Democrats may not have been fired up about Clinton, they are unified in their motivation to oust Trump. On top of that, independent voters, especially independent women voters, are soured on Trump and congressional Republicans.

At the same time, this election isn’t like 2006, either. That year, featured an unpopular GOP President and a dispirited GOP base. This year, Trump’s job approval is in the same range as Bush’s — but Trump is more popular among the GOP base than Bush was, and, GOP voters are as motivated to vote today as they were back at the height of the Tea Party influence.

In other words, it’s not fair to compare this election to 2016. But, it’s also not fair to suggest it’s 2006 either. It is…different.

A Pew poll taken Sept. 18-24 found "voter enthusiasm is at its highest level during any midterm in more than two decades." Among Republicans, 59 percent said they were more "enthusiastic than usual" to vote this fall. That is 2-points better than GOP enthusiasm at this point in October of 2010 (a high water mark for GOP), and 26 points (!!!) higher than their enthusiasm level in October of 2006 (their low point).

But, enthusiasm among Democrats is even higher. A whopping 67 percent of Democrats say they are “more enthusiastic than usual” to vote this fall. That is 31 points higher than it was in 2014 (the Democrats low-point) and 25 points higher than their enthusiasm level in 2006 (a great year for Democrats).

An NBC/Wall Street Journal poll also showed an enthusiasm bump for Republicans in September. Merged polling from January to August found 63 percent of Democrats highly interested in the election, compared to just 51 percent of Republicans (a 12-point gap). The September 16-19 poll, however, saw that gap shrink to just four points (65 percent Democratic to 61 percent Republican).

What both Pew and NBC/Wall Street Journal polling also show is that despite the focus on the “Kavanaugh bump” it’s clear that the enthusiasm was already high even before the Kavanaugh vote took place. As one Democratic consultant put it to me the other day: "we always go through this. We take a turn into October and Republicans start coming home and consolidating, and enthusiasm with them increases."

In a nutshell, here’s what’s going on: Republican enthusiasm is about on par with where it was at the height of the anti-Obama fervor of 2010. But, Democratic enthusiasm is higher than it has ever been.

Here’s the other thing. Regardless of where turn-out ends up in November, the enthusiasm gap advantage that Democrats enjoyed throughout 2017-2018 has already taken its toll. It was that energy that prompted a record number of Democrats to run for Congress. And, it prompted Democratic donors to pump a record amount of money to these candidates. Without that enthusiasm boost in 2017 and early 2018, Democrats don’t expand the playing field and don’t have enough money to keep this many seats in play. The barn door may be closed now, but the horses have already escaped.

But, enthusiasm and turnout is only one part of the two-part challenge for Republicans in the House. Earlier this year, a GOP strategist told me: "If we tie with the Democrats on turnout, but lose with Independents on vote preference, we are still in deep doodoo."

I checked in with that strategist this week who says that Kavanaugh "for now, solved the GOP enthusiasm problem. An incredible shift from two weeks ago." But, "the problems among Independents have not been solved by any stretch."

The most recent national polls from Marist, CNN, Quinnipiac and Gallup all show Trump’s job approval rating with independents in dismal territory — between 37 and 40 percent.

Keep in mind that of the 17 Senate races where there is any doubt about the outcome, 14 are in states that voted Trump in 2016. The only exceptions are Minnesota, where Sen. Tina Smith is running for a full term after being appointed to succeed Al Franken; New Jersey, a very Democratic state in a Democratic year but where Bob Menendez is facing a race that is getting closer after the scandal over his alleged corruption; and Nevada, where GOP incumbent Dean Heller is running in a state that went narrowly for Hillary Clinton in the last election. Particularly in the five states that voted for Trump by 19 points or more, the increase in GOP intensity could make lives even more difficult. That’s true even in West Virginia where Democrat Joe Manchin ended up voting in favor of confirmation. For Heidi Heitkamp in North Dakota, Claire McCaskill in Missouri, Jon Tester in Montana, and Joe Donnelly in Indiana, this is making a tough situation even tougher.

As is the norm for midterm elections, this is a referendum on the president—in this case, a very polarizing president who evokes strong emotions, both positive and negative. For over a year I’ve been seeing the midterms as a tale of two elections, one for the House, governorships and state legislatures that looks to be a very challenging situation for Republicans. Trump’s national approval ratings are comparable to those of presidents preceding previous midterm-election disasters, like President Clinton’s in 1994, President George W. Bush’s in 2006 and President Obama’s in both 2010 and 2014. Even with more congressional and state legislative boundaries drawn to benefit Republicans than Democrats, this blue wave looks taller than the Republican sea wall of boundaries and natural population patterns.

In the governorships, where district lines are not applicable, it is enormous GOP gains in 2010 and 2014 that leave Republicans overexposed, with only one way to go: down. Democrats have surprising chances of picking up Republican governorships in some normally very red states like Kansas, Oklahoma, and South Dakota, not to mention some other places like Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, and Wisconsin. In some of these states, it is state spending cuts, particularly on education, that is causing some voters to move in ways that might not be normally expected.

How did we get into this mess? Having lived in Washington for 46 years since coming to town in September 1972 as a college freshman, four months later starting on Capitol Hill as a Senate elevator operator and intern, I have never seen the bitterness, the level of partisan vitriol that we are seeing today, and that period encompasses two impeachments, two very unpopular wars, and scores of momentous political and legislative battles. Our country is more divided today that at any time since Reconstruction, the period of the late 1860s, 1870s, and early 1880s immediately after the Civil War. Conservative commentator and former Education Secretary William Bennett speculated that things were more badly divided than at any time since just before that war.

What is most alarming today is that our judiciary, the one branch of government designed to be the least political, has now become equally politicized. It's now a legitimate question about how long will it take a Supreme Court nominee picked by a president of one party to again be confirmed by a Senate controlled by the opposite party.

Today’s the day. Any last predictions?

Today’s the day. Any last predictions?

Millions of voters across the country are heading to the polls Tuesday, but some are having more trouble voting than others.

Here are some of the voter issues and irregularities that CNN has found so far this Election Day, from power outages to excessive humidity.

A polling place at Cedar Bluff Middle School in Knoxville, Tennessee, did not have power Tuesday morning and the site's backup generator has also failed.

Cliff Rodgers, administrator for elections for Knox County, told CNN that people on site are urgently working to get the power on, and voting is still ongoing.

"We're voting with paper ballots," he told CNN by phone.

Because there's no ambient light in the building, they're voting outside. Out of an abundance of caution, Rodgers says, he's ordered more paper ballots to the polling place.

Humidity in North Carolina

The North Carolina state board of elections said humidity appears to be causing difficulties in feeding ballots through tabulators in some Wake County precincts.

In a news release, NC's State Board of Elections and Ethics Enforcement says such ballots will be stored in "emergency bins" and "will be tabulated as soon as possible." All ballots will be counted, the board said.

Late start in Brooklyn

Voters were locked out of a polling place in Brooklyn, New York, for about 90 minutes on Tuesday morning, according to a city elections official.

The site had been scheduled to open at 6 a.m. ET. However, voting at the Breukelen Community Center began around 7:30 a.m., said Valerie Vazquez, the communications director for the New York City Board of Elections.

The polling site is a New York City Housing Authority property and poll workers could not open an electronic lock on the building, Vazquez said. She did not have immediate information on how many voters were affected.

DHS official warns of 'garbage' information

Federal officials are monitoring for potential misinformation campaigns, including from foreign actors such as Russia, but have no "significant" incidents to report.

"The day is early," a senior Department of Homeland Security official said. "We continue to monitor what is going on across the country. Nothing significant to report at this point. ... We have not seen to date any coordinated campaign certainly along the lines of 2016, but we are preparing as if there will be an event today."

The official said "there's a lot of noise out there," and called it "garbage" information but referred specific questions about any influence from foreign actors to the FBI.

DHS has a national operations center and an online forum to communicate with state officials.

Humidity in North Carolina

The North Carolina state board of elections said humidity appears to be causing difficulties in feeding ballots through tabulators in some Wake County precincts

I am more worried about Georgia and the exact match thing, does anyone know how that is going?