@blatham,
blatham wrote:
Exactly. And it is really the only strategy to adopt now. The three of us here made the decision this morning to remain in the house other than for walks if we choose. Shopping will be done by a young relative as needed. It's unclear whether there are any verified infections in this small city but there will be soon enough and it's likely there are unrecognized infections now. Brother will miss golf and his work for Habitat for Humanity. Sister in law will have to cease all her personal support for myeloma patients (she is one herself). I'll miss some social interactions and a bunch of renovation work that was upcoming but that's really nothing of concern for me. Best of luck to you and yours.
Thanks, and I wish you all well too.
Trying times, and the path ahead isn't yet clear. There are lots of published statistics about the incidence and fatalities associated with the coronavirus in countries around the world. However it's hard to discern patterns in them, due (I believe) mostly to wide variations in both the stage of the infection's spread, and likely large variations in the fraction of the cases actually detected and reported in each.
Mortality due a disease is usually an after-the-fact finding based on the ratio of deaths to the sum of deaths and full recoveries. Hard to know that while the disease is spreading and data on outcomes lags. Most attention now is on the ratio of deaths to cases reported. However using reported death and recovery data for China, where the infection is most mature, one gets a mortality rate of 4.5%, which is higher than the current 4,0% deaths to cases rate for that country - and both are a good deal higher than the 1% -2% rates widely noted for the disease. The strange high communicability of the infection and, frequent absence of symptoms among many infected, may well raise both the measured case and recovery rates as time passes, erasing these differences.
China's case load appears to have leveled off at about 56 total cases per million population, and, more significantly, 6.4 active cases per million population. For the U.S & Canada the latter number is about 13.2, while for European countries it is between ~97 (France and Germany) to above 250 (Italy, Switzerland and Norway) ! Hard to figure what this may eventually reveal. However it does indicate the likely reason for Trumps' termination of flights from Europe and Trudeau's even more draconian measures (Though Canada's southern border is likely more easily managed than ours.)
One bit of good news is that both the rate of increase and number of new cases reported has been decreasing in both America and most European countries for the last few days - following patterns already established in China & S. Korea.