layman
 
  0  
Reply Mon 9 Mar, 2020 09:42 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Walter Hinteler wrote:

The coronavirus Sars-CoV-2 is novel, the immune system is not prepared for it, then there are the differences in the possibilities for treatment and prevention etc etc etc


Yeah, so?

I read that in 85% of the cases the symptoms are either mild or non-existent. This aint some "super-predator."

60,000 Americans alone die from the flu and that's every year. 600,000 in the last decade. Worldwide it's many millions.

We're all gunna die!!!
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Mon 9 Mar, 2020 10:02 am
@layman,
What are those "non-existent symptoms"? Should be a relief for the dead, those in hospitals and home quarantine!
layman
 
  0  
Reply Mon 9 Mar, 2020 10:07 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Walter Hinteler wrote:

What are those "non-existent symptoms"?


What kinda question is that? They're non-existent. Nada, nuthin. They aint there, even though the virus is present. When all the food is gone, and the cupboards are bare, what is the food that is left? Corn, or some ****, ya figure?

So let's talk about the REAL pandemic, the flu, why don't we? 150-200 people die EVERY day in this country from the flu. There should therefore be 150-200 headlines about it every day in every newpaper I figure. Updated every minute. The total is now 20,000, next headline, the total is no 20,001, etc.

Why does the media withhold this crucial information, like China?
layman
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 9 Mar, 2020 10:31 am
@layman,
65 million americans are attacked by the flu virus every year.

We're all gunna die, I tells ya!!!
georgeob1
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Mar, 2020 10:36 am
@Walter Hinteler,
It's difficult to predict the future trajectories of apparently new strains of viral infection. Michael Crichton's novel (from ~ 1970) "the Andromeda Strain" depicts one such possibility.

A couple of issues strike me about the current reaction to the Corona virus:
(1) The widely reported 2% mortality data appears to be exaggerated. This virus is hard to detect and appears to elicit a very wide range of responses from those infected with it, ranging from very minor, often unnoticed symptoms to very serious infection and death. New procedures and "kits" for confirming the diagnosis are in short supply. In these circumstances the probability of detection (either early in the disease or afterwards) very likely vary a great deal, with cases of serious consequence much more likely to be detected and confirmed than those with mild infections. In short the fraction of infections actually confirmed is likely well short of the actual numbers and is strongly biased to those with the most serious outcomes. I'm confident the available mortality data is being reported fairly accurately, but the detectability issue very strongly biases it upwards from the likely reality. 2% is a widely quoted figure, but it appears likely the the unfolding data will soon lower it to well below 1%.
(2) New viral diseases often strike the very young (with little relevant immunity) and the very old (with higher vulnerability and often depressed immune systems). This one appears not to have wide incidence (as yet reported) among children.. Hard to explain.
0 Replies
 
oralloy
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 9 Mar, 2020 10:45 am
@layman,
layman wrote:
blatham wrote:
He's not going to stop trying to blame anything or anyone other than himself for the spread of covid or denying that the pandemic was so badly mishandled.

56,000 people a year die from the common flu. Why aren't the Chicken Littles panicking about that, I wonder? It's contagious, and it's everywhere, I tells ya!

It is true that this is not a doomsday virus come to exterminate humanity.

But it is expected to cause half a million deaths in the US this year. So it is something to be concerned about.

The left's happiness over these fatalities (whether it is because they hope it will damage Mr. Trump, or simply because they like to see Americans die) is certainly unseemly.

I've grown so used to leftists being appalling that I've almost become inured to it. Almost.
layman
 
  0  
Reply Mon 9 Mar, 2020 10:57 am
@oralloy,
oralloy wrote:
...it is expected to cause half a million deaths in the US this year.


Who expects that? Got a citation?
oralloy
 
  -1  
Reply Mon 9 Mar, 2020 11:10 am
@layman,
This guy expects it:
https://www.unmc.edu/intmed/divisions/id/faculty/lawler.html

Note his leaked PowerPoint slide:
https://www.businessinsider.com/presentation-us-hospitals-preparing-for-millions-of-hospitalizations-2020-3
layman
 
  0  
Reply Mon 9 Mar, 2020 11:11 am
@layman,
Coronavirus death rate: What are the chances of dying?

Quote:
Researchers currently think that between five and 40 coronavirus cases in 1,000 will result in death, with a best guess of nine in 1,000 or about 1%.


https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51674743

The mortality rate for the common flu is over 1%.
Olivier5
 
  0  
Reply Mon 9 Mar, 2020 11:13 am
@layman,
Hey boy. It's more like 0.1 percent for the common flue. Depends on the country and their medical systems.
layman
 
  0  
Reply Mon 9 Mar, 2020 11:17 am
@oralloy,
Hmmm, says there:

Quote:
The American Hospital Association said the webinar reflects the views of the experts who spoke on it, not its own...."The slides you shared reflect the various perspectives of field experts and should not be attributed to the AHA."
snood
 
  2  
Reply Mon 9 Mar, 2020 11:19 am
@Brand X,
Brand X wrote:

David Sirota
@davidsirota
·
12h
NEWS: Biden issued a press release bragging that he was "one of the Senate's most conservative Democrats." As proof, he cited his votes to restrict abortion & pass the Social Security-cutting balanced budget amendment.


When was this press release? Do you have a citation other than David Sirota second hand?
0 Replies
 
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Mon 9 Mar, 2020 11:19 am
@layman,
You are not only ignoring the upward trend in coronavirus cases but downplaying the deadliness of the disease.
However, you're following Dr. Donald J. Trump the pioneering virologist.
coldjoint
 
  0  
Reply Mon 9 Mar, 2020 11:24 am
@Olivier5,
Quote:
It's more like 0.1 percent for the common flue.

Layman had a link, do you?
0 Replies
 
Olivier5
 
  2  
Reply Mon 9 Mar, 2020 11:29 am
@Walter Hinteler,
Quote:
Dr. Donald J. Trump the pioneering virologist.

I'm stealing this.
0 Replies
 
layman
 
  0  
Reply Mon 9 Mar, 2020 11:37 am
From Kaiser Health News:

Quote:
...influenza kills 0.14% of infected patients, said Dr. Peter Hotez, a professor of pediatrics, molecular virology and microbiology at Baylor College of Medicine in Houston.


https://khn.org/news/facts-vs-fears-five-things-to-help-weigh-your-coronavirus-risk/
coldjoint
 
  0  
Reply Mon 9 Mar, 2020 11:40 am
@layman,
Quote:
From Kaiser Health News:

I am waiting for Oliver's link to support his claim. Have you seen it?
Walter Hinteler
 
  2  
Reply Mon 9 Mar, 2020 12:00 pm
@coldjoint,
Olivier5 wrote:
It's more like 0.1 percent for the common flue.

layman wrote:
Quote:
...influenza kills 0.14% of infected patients,


U.S. Department of Health & Human Services: Disease Burden of Influenza

Influenza per 100,000 (Europe): European Health Information Gateway

Germany: Deaths, cases per 100,000 inhabitants
layman
 
  0  
Reply Mon 9 Mar, 2020 12:16 pm


Quote:
The case fatality rate (CFR) represents the proportion of cases who eventually die from a disease. But while an epidemic is still ongoing, as it is the case with the current novel coronavirus outbreak, this formula is, at the very least, "naïve" and can be "misleading if, at the time of analysis, the outcome is unknown for a non negligible proportion of patients.

Unreported cases would have the effect of decreasing the denominator and inflating the CFR above its real value. Neil Ferguson, a public health expert at Imperial College in the UK, said his “best guess” was that there were 100,000 affected by the virus even though there were only 2,000 confirmed cases at the time.

At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present.


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/#correct
0 Replies
 
layman
 
  1  
Reply Mon 9 Mar, 2020 12:18 pm
Yeah, Ollie, I misspoke. I've already corrected myself on that score. Happy?
 

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