Progressives (Liberals)

What Clinton is doing is reprehensible.

Bernie Sanders, with his recent statement, has displayed admirable integrity. I suspect it will hurt his chances of winning the nomination.

Former Vice President Joe Biden's lead in the race for the Democratic nomination for president has rebounded, and now stands at its widest margin since April, according to a new CNN poll conducted by SSRS.

Biden has the support of 34% of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters, his best showing in CNN polling since just after his campaign's formal launch on April 25.

Sens. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Bernie Sanders of Vermont are about even for second, with 19% and 16%, respectively. Behind them, South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Sen. Kamala Harris of California each have 6% support, with Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota and former Texas Congressman Beto O'Rourke each at 3%.

Biden's rise comes largely from a consolidation of support among his core backers, and doesn't appear to harm any individual opponent. Warren and Sanders hold about even with their standing in the last CNN poll in September, and no other candidate has seen a shift of more than 2 points in that time.

But Biden has seen big spikes in support among moderate and conservative Democrats (43% support him now, up from 29% in the September poll), racial and ethnic minorities (from 28% among all nonwhites in September to 42% now) and older voters (up 13 points since September among those 45 and older) that outpace those among younger potential Democratic voters (up 5 points among those younger than 45).

The gains come as Biden's time as vice president is put under the spotlight by President Donald Trump and his allies. Trump is facing an impeachment inquiry by the House of Representatives over allegations that he pressured the Ukrainian government to investigate Biden and his son, Hunter Biden, as well as the 2016 US election in return for releasing hundreds of millions in congressionally mandated defense funding meant for Ukraine. Hunter Biden was on the board of a Ukrainian natural gas company while Biden was vice president. There is no evidence that either Biden did anything wrong in Ukraine.

The poll suggests that although Biden's October debate performance did not blow away the audience (15% who watched or followed news about it said he had done the best job in the debate, well behind Warren's 28% — but better than most on the stage), the arguments he made on health care, foreign policy and the economy may have boosted his standing with the potential Democratic electorate.

Asked which candidate would best handle a range of top issues, Biden leads the way on four of the six issues tested in the poll. He holds a massive edge over the field on foreign policy (56% say he would handle it best, well ahead of Sanders at 13% and Warren at 11%), and tops the next closest candidate by nearly 20 points on the economy (38% Biden, 19% Sanders, 16% Warren). Biden also outpaces the rest of the field as most trusted on immigration (29% Biden, 16% each Warren and Sanders) and gun policy (27% vs. 13% Sanders and 11% Warren, with O'Rourke close at 9%).

Biden doesn't hold a significant edge on the critical issue of health care (31% Biden, 28% Sanders, 17% Warren) but he's surged 13 points on the issue since June, when he lagged behind Sanders. Neither Sanders' nor Warren's numbers on the issue have moved significantly in that time.

And Biden now runs even with Sanders at 26% as best able to handle the climate crisis. Warren is at 18% on that issue. The results mark increases for Biden and Sanders, who were each at 19% on handling the climate in June.

The former vice president's advantages on the issues come as he emphasizes an approach that appears to align with the preferences of most potential Democratic voters. A 53% majority say they want the nominee to advocate policies that have a good chance of becoming law, even if the changes aren't as big, vs. 42% who prefer advocating big changes even if they have less of a chance of becoming law.

Among those voters who prefer an approach that prioritizes policies with a better chance of becoming law, 38% support Biden for the Democratic nomination, 17% Warren and just 8% Sanders. On the other side, it's nearly a three-way split, with 27% behind Biden, 24% Sanders and 21% Warren.

About 1 in 5 potential Democratic voters say they watched last week's debate among 12 Democratic candidates, and those who watched it came away with a different assessment than those who mainly followed news about the debate. Overall, among everyone who either watched or followed news coverage on the debate, 28% say Warren had the best night, 15% Biden, 13% Sanders, 11% Buttigieg, 4% Klobuchar and 2% Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey, with the rest at 1% or less. Among those who say they watched it, though, Warren remains on top at 29%, but 21% say Buttigieg had the best night, then 13% Biden, 11% Sanders, 10% Klobuchar and 4% Booker, with everyone else at 1% or less.

And those who watched the debate seem to have more favorable views of the lesser-known candidates who were seen as having good nights than do those who followed coverage. Among debate watchers, 74% have a favorable view of Buttigieg, vs. 54% among those who followed news instead. Booker's favorability rating is 80% among those who watched, vs. 55% among those who followed coverage, and Klobuchar's favorability stands at 56% among watchers vs. 36% among those who followed news.

Warren tops the list of candidates who potential Democratic voters say they want to hear more about: 31% name her, 24% Buttigieg, 23% Harris, 18% Booker, 17% Sanders, 16% Biden, 13% Klobuchar, 11% O'Rourke and 10% businessman Andrew Yang.

Majorities of potential Democratic voters say they would at least be satisfied with any of the top three becoming the party's nominee, with about 4 in 10 saying they'd be enthusiastic about Biden (43%), Warren (41%) or Sanders (39%). Fewer would feel as excited should Buttigieg become the party's nominee (27% enthusiastic).

Registered voters generally give Biden, Warren, Sanders and Buttigieg large advantages over President Donald Trump in hypothetical general election matchups. Biden leads the President by 10 points, 53% to 43%, with Sanders up 9 (52% to 43%) and Warren up 8 (52% to 44%). Buttigieg holds a 6-point edge, 50% to 44%.

The CNN Poll was conducted by SSRS from October 17 through 20 among a random national sample of 1,003 adults reached on landlines or cellphones by a live interviewer, including 424 registered voters who are Democrats or Democratic-leaning independents. Results for the full sample have a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3.7 percentage points. For results among potential Democratic voters, it is plus or minus 5.8 points.

It’s a running joke among political junkies that the next presidential election is always the most important one ever. But you could make a pretty good case that 2020 is, in the words of Joe Biden, a BFD. The partisan divide is wider than ever, which means the results could have big consequences, particularly if one party or the other achieves a trifecta, the way Republicans did in 2016 and Democrats did in 2008. On certain key national challenges like climate change, the 2020 results may well determine whether the U.S. does much of anything at all before it’s too late to decide on a course of action. And then there’s the little matter of an astonishingly reckless president who acknowledges no limitations on his power and glory. If he’s reelected, he will very certainly assume a mandate for near-totalitarian measures if they strike his fancy.

It’s not surprising, then, that every indicator shows we are likely to see a presidential election next year where interest, enthusiasm, and participation reach levels unknown in recent history (no, turnout probably won’t match the 80 percent of the voting-eligible population that showed up in 1888, but then that was before the general adoption of the secret ballot, when voters could literally be herded to the polls and deployed en masse). This is a bit of a pattern in the Trump era, with its high turnout levels for many special elections and the highest turnout rates in any midterm since 1914.

While voter enthusiasm isn’t directly correlated to turnout (after all, any enthusiasm beyond what is necessary to get one to the polls is irrelevant unless it’s contagious), it obviously is a factor. And as new data from CNN shows, we’re seeing historic levels of enthusiasm right now. Currently 88 percent of registered voters responding to the poll in question are enthusiastic in varying degrees about voting in the 2020 presidential election; only 11 percent are not. Of the enthused super-majority, 47 percent describe themselves as extremely enthusiastic and 24 percent as very enthusiastic. Taking the “extremely” and “very” enthusiastic voters together, that’s 71 percent currently. In late October 2016, the comparable number was 46 percent (though in September 2015 it was a bit higher at 55 percent, indicating that a decent number of voters weren’t happy with the general-election options; usually enthusiasm goes up as an election approaches). At this point in the 2012 cycle, 51 percent of voters described themselves as “extremely” or “very” enthusiastic.

For me the recent benchmark of voter enthusiasm was the 2008 election that lifted Barack Obama to the presidency (I will never forget the citywide street celebration that broke out in Washington the minute he was forecast as the winner). Just before that election, 37 percent of registered voters said they were “extremely” enthusiastic about voting, with 32 percent “very” enthusiastic. That’s right: More than a year out, we’re at or above 2008 levels of voter enthusiasm. And the percentage of extremely enthusiastic folks is a lot higher.

So: Is all this excitement attributable to the Resistance getting people ready to eject our bizarre and unpopular president from the White House before he commits another four years’ worth of high crimes and misdemeanors? No, not really.

CNN’s cross-tabs break down the enthusiasm numbers in all sorts of ways, but here’s the one that matters most: 79 percent of registered voters who give Trump a positive job-approval rating are either “extremely” (53 percent) or “very” (26 percent) enthusiastic about voting in 2020. Among registered voters who disapprove of Trump, 66 percent are “extremely” (43 percent) or “very” (23 percent) enthused. All the other cross-tabs tell a similar story: White folks are more enthusiastic about voting than nonwhite folks; old folks are more psyched than young folks; Republicans are more whipped up than Democrats.

Does this mean Trump is cruising toward reelection? Of course not; the same CNN poll shows every Democratic candidate they asked about beating the incumbent by at least six points. Trump’s job-approval numbers remain stuck in the low 40s, where they have been his entire presidency — except for the times when they’ve been in the high 30s. What this does mean is that the MAGA coalition may punch above its demographic weight, even beyond the fact that MAGA people, being older and whiter than average, tend to vote at higher rates whether or not they are feeling enthusiastic. And it also means that after an extended period of time when the president was in the news every single day for thuggish if not criminal conduct, crude and mendacious tweets, and constant White House turmoil, his fans really want four more years of this, no matter what Mitt Romney thinks. Maybe that will change before next November, but no one should make bets on it.

I think the Russian thing works more on the minds and actions of centrists than anybody else.